News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[Sypher04]

Maybe we can just get back on the thread subject and leave the personal attacks out of it.

I think he signs fairly soon after July 1 for 5 or 6 years at around 13M, maybe a bit more

 

[pcruz]

Well, let's compare them:

We can do 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 years then.

2 Years:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]Pts[/TD]
[TD]Even Strength Points[/TD]
[TD]Hits[/TD]
[TD]Blocked Shots[/TD]
[TD]Awards Won[/TD]
[TD]Awards Nominated[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matthews[/TD]
[TD]147[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]91[/TD]
[TD]191[/TD]
[TD]134[/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD]1All Star, Hart, Pearson, Richard[/TD]
[TD]Byng : 10; Selke: 10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mackinnon[/TD]
[TD]136[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[TD]125[/TD]
[TD]199[/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]121[/TD]
[TD]79[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]6th All Star; Byng: 66[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

3 Years:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]Pts[/TD]
[TD]Even Strength Points[/TD]
[TD]Hits[/TD]
[TD]Blocked Shots[/TD]
[TD]Awards Won[/TD]
[TD]Awards Nominated[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matthews[/TD]
[TD]199[/TD]
[TD]141[/TD]
[TD]116[/TD]
[TD]257[/TD]
[TD]187[/TD]
[TD]202[/TD]
[TD]201[/TD]
[TD]All Star: 1
All Star: 2
Hart
Pearson
Richard
Richard[/TD]
[TD]Hart: 2
Byng: 3, 10
Selke: 10, 27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mackinnon[/TD]
[TD]184[/TD]
[TD]94[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]264[/TD]
[TD]178[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]94[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Hart: 3
Selke: 22
Byng: 11, 66
All Star: 3, 6[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

4 Years:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]Pts[/TD]
[TD]Even Strength Points[/TD]
[TD]Hits[/TD]
[TD]Blocked Shots[/TD]
[TD]Awards Won[/TD]
[TD]Awards Nominated[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matthews[/TD]
[TD]269[/TD]
[TD]188[/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]337[/TD]
[TD]242[/TD]
[TD]242[/TD]
[TD]261[/TD]
[TD]All Star: 1
All Star: 2
Hart
Pearson
Richard
Richard[/TD]
[TD]Hart: 2, 10
Byng: 2, 3, 10
Selke: 10, 16, 27
All Star: 4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mackinnon[/TD]
[TD]253[/TD]
[TD]129[/TD]
[TD]228[/TD]
[TD]357[/TD]
[TD]240[/TD]
[TD]210[/TD]
[TD]125[/TD]
[TD]Byng
All Star: 2[/TD]
[TD]Hart: 2, 3
Selke: 22, 26
Byng: 11, 66
All Star: 3, 6[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

5 Years:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]Pts[/TD]
[TD]Even Strength Points[/TD]
[TD]Hits[/TD]
[TD]Blocked Shots[/TD]
[TD]Awards Won[/TD]
[TD]Awards Nominated[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matthews[/TD]
[TD]337[/TD]
[TD]225[/TD]
[TD]185[/TD]
[TD]410[/TD]
[TD]295[/TD]
[TD]270[/TD]
[TD]321[/TD]
[TD]All Star: 1
All Star: 2
Hart
Pearson
Richard
Richard[/TD]
[TD]Hart: 2, 10
Byng: 2, 3, 8, 10
Selke: 10, 16, 27
All Star: 4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mackinnon[/TD]
[TD]335[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]286[/TD]
[TD]456[/TD]
[TD]302[/TD]
[TD]264[/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[TD]Byng
All Star: 2[/TD]
[TD]Hart: 2, 3, 6
Selke: 22, 26
Byng: 11, 66
All Star: 3, 3, 6[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

6 Years

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]Pts[/TD]
[TD]Even Strength Points[/TD]
[TD]Hits[/TD]
[TD]Blocked Shots[/TD]
[TD]Awards Won[/TD]
[TD]Awards Nominated[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matthews[/TD]
[TD]399[/TD]
[TD]259[/TD]
[TD]214[/TD]
[TD]473[/TD]
[TD]345[/TD]
[TD]286[/TD]
[TD]382[/TD]
[TD]All Star: 1
All Star: 2
Hart
Pearson
Richard
Richard[/TD]
[TD]Hart: 2, 10
Byng: 2, 3, 8, 10
Selke: 10, 16, 27
All Star: 4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mackinnon[/TD]
[TD]409[/TD]
[TD]209[/TD]
[TD]344[/TD]
[TD]553[/TD]
[TD]366[/TD]
[TD]302[/TD]
[TD]178[/TD]
[TD]Byng
All Star: 2, 2[/TD]
[TD]Hart: 2, 2, 3, 6
Selke: 22, 26
Byng: 11, 33, 66
All Star: 3, 3, 6[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

7 Years

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]Pts[/TD]
[TD]Even Strength Points[/TD]
[TD]Hits[/TD]
[TD]Blocked Shots[/TD]
[TD]Awards Won[/TD]
[TD]Awards Nominated[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matthews[/TD]
[TD]481[/TD]
[TD]299[/TD]
[TD]243[/TD]
[TD]542[/TD]
[TD]393[/TD]
[TD]307[/TD]
[TD]443[/TD]
[TD]All Star: 1
All Star: 2
Hart
Pearson
Richard
Richard
Calder
All Rookie[/TD]
[TD]Hart: 2, 2, 10, 11
Byng: 2, 3, 6, 8, 8, 10, 33
Selke: 10, 16, 27, 38
All Star: 4, 6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mackinnon[/TD]
[TD]491[/TD]
[TD]225[/TD]
[TD]381[/TD]
[TD]606[/TD]
[TD]403[/TD]
[TD]358[/TD]
[TD]208[/TD]
[TD]Byng
All Star: 2, 2[/TD]
[TD]Hart: 2, 3, 6
Selke: 22, 26
Byng: 11, 66
All Star: 3, 3, 6[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


That's an impressive resume by Mackinnon, for the part of his career he didn't suck.
The 3 seasons he played before Matthews was drafted, Mack scored all of:

59 goals
94 assists
153 points

That's an average of 20 goals and 51 points per year.

That's the reason why you shouldn't include a player's rookie and subsequent seasons in comparing them to established players over the course of the same seasons.

Matthews absolutely is not.

Since Matthews signed his last deal 5 years ago...

Auston Matthews:
73pts. in 68GP
80pts. in 70GP
66pts. in 52GP
106pts. in 73GP
85pts. in 74GP
Total: 410pts. in 337GP = 1.22PPG

Nathan MacKinnon:
99pts. in 82GP
93pts. in 69GP
65pts. in 48GP
88pts. in 65GP
111pts. in 71GP
Total: 456pts. in 335GP = 1.37PPG

And MacKinnon's high water mark is 111 points in 71GP. Matthews is 106 points in 73GP.

Even more importantly are their playoff numbers:

Auston Matthews: 0.88PPG
Nathan MacKinnon: 1.3PPG

Yes, Matthews has a Hart and two Rockets. But MacKinnon has a Cup and is significantly better in the playoffs. What's even more interesting is that Matthews only claim as a better offensive player is goal scoring and in the playoffs:

Auston Matthews: 36 goals over 82GP
Nathan MacKinnon: 47 goals over 82GP

No matter how you realistically slice it, MacKinnon is the better offensive player (unless you're trying to factor in his early sucky years on those garbage Avs teams, which of course would be 100% irrelevant when talking about MacKinnon's contract last summer and Matthews this summer).

In addition to being a better offensive player, MacKinnon is a champion and plays with level of fire and passion that Matthews doesn't.

As for the overblown "defensive play" we supposedly see from Matthews -- it's completely irrelevant. Almost as irrelevant as their average career +/- which would give Matthews the edge: +18 vs. +13 (which factoring in MacKinnon's early years on the crummy Avs when he was a minus player 3 times). Neither player is Bob Gainey or Patrice Bergeron and neither player's defense is the reason they are winning or losing hockey games.

Fans trying to oversell Matthews by adding his "defensive play" as a caveat is packing crap in a bag to make it look more full. When Matthews turns into Pavel Datsyuk let's talk about his defensive play. Until then, he's being paid to score goals, generate offense, and win Stanley Cups, period.

Nathan MacKinnon is a perfect comp for what Auston Matthews should be paid (and quite honestly, that's being a hair generous). But since the Leafs already overpaid him once and there's no reversing course, sure, give him the same exact deal MacKinnon got (which is more than McDavid). In fact, pay Auston another 100k just so he can own the label of "highest paid player in hockey history" which means so much to him.

In no fair, or realistic, world should Auston Matthews be paid 13.5 - 14 mil a year when MacKinnon just signed for 12.6, Pastrnak for 11.5, and Tkachuk for 9.5. Especially since all of them signed long-term.

 

[Sypher04]

Matthews absolutely is not.

Since Matthews signed his last deal 5 years ago...

Auston Matthews:
73pts. in 68GP
80pts. in 70GP
66pts. in 52GP
106pts. in 73GP
85pts. in 74GP
Total: 410pts. in 337GP = 1.22PPG

Nathan MacKinnon:
99pts. in 82GP
93pts. in 69GP
65pts. in 48GP
88pts. in 65GP
111pts. in 71GP
Total: 456pts. in 335GP = 1.37PPG

And MacKinnon's high water mark is 111 points in 71GP. Matthews is 106 points in 73GP.

Even more importantly are their playoff numbers:

Auston Matthews: 0.88PPG
Nathan MacKinnon: 1.3PPG

Yes, Matthews has a Hart and two Rockets. But MacKinnon has a Cup and is significantly better in the playoffs. What's even more interesting is that Matthews only claim as a better offensive player is goal scoring and in the playoffs:

Auston Matthews: 36 goals over 82GP
Nathan MacKinnon: 47 goals over 82GP

No matter how you realistically slice it, MacKinnon is the better offensive player (unless you're trying to factor in his early sucky years on those garbage Avs teams, which of course would be 100% irrelevant when talking about MacKinnon's contract last summer and Matthews this summer).

In addition to being a better offensive player, MacKinnon is a champion and plays with level of fire and passion that Matthews doesn't.

As for the overblown "defensive play" we supposedly see from Matthews -- it's completely irrelevant. Almost as irrelevant as their average career +/- which would give Matthews the edge: +18 vs. +13 (which factoring in MacKinnon's early years on the crummy Avs when he was a minus player 3 times). Neither player is Bob Gainey or Patrice Bergeron and neither player's defense is the reason they are winning or losing hockey games.

Fans trying to oversell Matthews by adding his "defensive play" as a caveat is packing crap in a bag to make it look more full. When Matthews turns into Pavel Datsyuk let's talk about his defensive play. Until then, he's being paid to score goals, generate offense, and win Stanley Cups, period.

Nathan MacKinnon is a perfect comp for what Auston Matthews should be paid (and quite honestly, that's being a hair generous). But since the Leafs already overpaid him once and there's no reversing course, sure, give him the same exact deal MacKinnon got (which is more than McDavid). In fact, pay Auston another 100k just so he can own the label of "highest paid player in hockey history" which means so much to him.

In no fair, or realistic, world should Auston Matthews be paid 13.5 - 14 mil a year when MacKinnon just signed for 12.6, Pastrnak for 11.5, and Tkachuk for 9.5. Especially since all of them signed long-term.

I’ve been arguing they are around the same level offensively while Matthews is the better defensive player and goalscorer. Saying MacKinnon plays with more fire is entirely fair. It’s also worth mention Matthews is 2 years younger than MacKinnon.

Mac’s playoff record being better is also fair, though not what contacts are based on generally. Not irrelevant, but also not a big swing factor in pay either.

I’ve said I think making Matthews the highest paid marginally up to around 13M seems reasonably fair value given his individual accomplishments. 2 rockets, 4 times in the top 3. Hart, Ted Lindsay, finalist for each of those the previous year. 100 pts, 60 goals etc etc. Multiple top 20 finishes for Selke despite not playing the PK. This year was a bit down (still 40 goals and like 85 points) but he seemingly wasn’t healthy at virtually any point. The Leafs have the medical files, so they would have to weigh whether his wrist is concerning or not regarding signing him to term

He’s not even gonna last very long at the top with Draisaitl coming up soon after.

The part I bolded isn’t a fact. We have no idea if that is important to Matthews at all. I do agree, 13.5-14 is getting too high, but not sure it’s enough so to risk losing the player over if it was say 500k. If I’m overpaying anyone on this team it’s Matthews and I’m not losing sleep over it.

 

[29Potvin]

I’ve been arguing they are around the same level offensively while Matthews is the better defensive player and goalscorer. Saying MacKinnon plays with more fire is entirely fair. It’s also worth mention Matthews is 2 years younger than MacKinnon.

Mac’s playoff record being better is also fair, though not what contacts are based on generally. Not irrelevant, but also not a big swing factor in pay either.

I’ve said I think making Matthews the highest paid marginally up to around 13M seems reasonably fair value given his individual accomplishments. 2 rockets, 4 times in the top 2. Hart, Ted Lindsay, finalist for each of those the previous year. 100 pts, 60 goals etc etc. Multiple top 20 finishes for Selke despite not playing the PK

Not even gonna last very long with Draisaitl coming up soon after.

The part I bolded isn’t a fact. We have no idea if that is important to Matthews at all. I do agree, 13.5-14 is getting too high, but not sure it’s enough so to risk losing the player over if it was say 500k. If I’m overpaying anyone on this team it’s Matthews and I’m not losing sleep over it.

I agree with you 100% and just like the Leafs did with JT some team will easily pay AM 13-14 for 7 years.
You may rest your cap and maybe retool with the cap/player acquired in a trade but the team will not be better without AM.
Problem is that you give him 13+ what will MM want next? So you tell AM you get your 13+ but we move MM because we can have 2 guys making 12+
AM at 13 and everyone under 10 is fine

 

[Sypher04]

I agree with you 100% and just like the Leafs did with JT some team will easily pay AM 13-14 for 7 years.
You may rest your cap and maybe retool with the cap/player acquired in a trade but the team will not be better without AM.
Problem is that you give him 13+ what will MM want next? So you tell AM you get your 13+ but we move MM because we can have 2 guys making 12+
AM at 13 and everyone under 10 is fine

It’s without question a challenge. Obviously I’d much rather see Matthews do the team a major solid and accept below market value by a good margin, but I’m not sure it’s realistic to expect that to happen.

I am convinced if he went to FA, there’s at least one team that’d throw 15M at him. If he’s all about maximizing his earnings like people claim he won’t get the absolute top dollar he could staying here and he has to know that.

Thankfully, I believe he does actually want to be here and isn’t all about being highest paid or completely maximizing his pay at all costs and it will never get that far

 

[thewave]

I agree with you 100% and just like the Leafs did with JT some team will easily pay AM 13-14 for 7 years.
You may rest your cap and maybe retool with the cap/player acquired in a trade but the team will not be better without AM.
Problem is that you give him 13+ what will MM want next? So you tell AM you get your 13+ but we move MM because we can have 2 guys making 12+
AM at 13 and everyone under 10 is fine

Exactly you need to ship out Marner. He isn't worth that money

 

[29Potvin]

Exactly you need to ship out Marner. He isn't worth that money

Always wingers available in trade or free agents that wont cost 11+

 

[baton elevated]

Matthews was not overpaid. Giving discounts should not be the expectation. It's very rare.

He is overpaid now if you consider he is maybe the 5th best player in the league?
I could easily and so can many others count off 5 players that are better bang for their buck than AM.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He is overpaid now if you consider he is maybe the 5th best player in the league?
I could easily and so can many others count off 5 players that are better bang for their buck than AM.

He is not overpaid. He has brought surplus value on his contract. He's not going to have a top 5 bang for your buck contract in the league because he was a top tier player prior to signing instead of randomly exploding after, but not having a top-5 bang for your buck contract in the league doesn't mean you're overpaid.

 

[thewave]

He is not overpaid. He has brought surplus value on his contract. He's not going to have a top 5 bang for your buck contract in the league because he was a top tier player prior to signing, but not having a top-5 bang for your buck contract in the league doesn't mean you're overpaid.

Dekes the way you evaluate players like an agent or father, we'd have the worst teams imaginable. I mean you go as far as to look at obscure stats and put them into strange context to justify massive contracts.

If we applied the Dekes method to all players we have 10 players and no cap left.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Dekes the way you evaluate players like an agent or father, we'd have the worst teams imaginable. I mean you go as far as to look at obscure stats and put them into strange context to justify massive contracts. If we applied the Dekes method to all players we have 10 players and no cap left.

I evaluate players the way GMs evaluate players - with proper metrics and full context - and it doesn't take up more cap or hurt teams. It just means recognizing the actual impact you're getting from players. We all want magical multi-million dollar discounts and to massively underpay all our players and have all the best bang for your buck contracts in the league, but that's not a realistic expectation, and you can't destroy your team because you don't get it.

 

[pcruz]

I evaluate players the way GMs evaluate players - with proper metrics and full context - and it doesn't take up more cap or hurt teams. It just means recognizing the actual impact you're getting from players. We all want magical multi-million dollar discounts and to massively underpay all our players and have all the best bang for your buck contracts in the league, but that's not a realistic expectation, and you can't destroy your team because you don't get it.

Imagine Panarin and Toews on this team..............


The fans would buy pitchforks just to break them out.

 

[Niagara Bill]

Is AM gone, with his agent and Treliving going to Arizona to see him, I think yes. He wants more as any good mercenary does and if Treliving has done his job, AM is on a bus for trade June 26th.
So we now find out, is it AM who makes the over agggresive demands or his agent.

 

[andora]

I evaluate players the way GMs evaluate players - with proper metrics and full context - and it doesn't take up more cap or hurt teams. It just means recognizing the actual impact you're getting from players. We all want magical multi-million dollar discounts and to massively underpay all our players and have all the best bang for your buck contracts in the league, but that's not a realistic expectation, and you can't destroy your team because you don't get it.

Why did rantanen end up with a noticeably smaller rate than marner

 

[Stephen]

Imagine Panarin and Toews on this team..............


The fans would buy pitchforks just to break them out.

Panarin just came off 96 and 92 point regular seasons with a run to the ECF 2 years ago.

 

[Racer88]

I evaluate players the way GMs evaluate players - with proper metrics and full context - and it doesn't take up more cap or hurt teams. It just means recognizing the actual impact you're getting from players. We all want magical multi-million dollar discounts and to massively underpay all our players and have all the best bang for your buck contracts in the league, but that's not a realistic expectation, and you can't destroy your team because you don't get it.

I’m pretty sure most of us just want players to play up to their contracts in the playoffs. They did not do that in the second round and went quietly into the night

Why did rantanen end up with a noticeably smaller rate than marner

The short answer……Marner is overpaid

 

[Squiffy]

Have we not done the tough guy, you play for the Leafs and be happy with it, take what we offer or stuff it, our way or the highway approach with our best players before? Commonly referred to as “the Ballard era”?

Austin getting market value isn’t unfair. Heck, whatever he signs at, he’d get more UFA. He’s just not the piece to mess with, not your stud 1C. Mess around with whatever else, literally anything else, I’d lose one of the wingers for a stud 1D no problem, for example. Do it tomorrow Bundy.

Auston’s contract will be fine, it’s a no-brainer. You look elsewhere to do better. It’s honestly that simple. Everything else is not seeing the forest for the trees.

 

[666]

Everyone knew Vegas was much closer to winning the cup than the leafs and what do you know? They ended up winning the cup.

Just show me a post of yours before the playoffs began that predicted that Vegas would win and you will have credibility, if you don't then you have no credibility. This should be fun.

 

[andora]

I’m pretty sure most of us just want players to play up to their contracts in the playoffs. They did not do that in the second round and went quietly into the night


The short answer……Marner is overpaid

I was curious what the resident GM evaluation aficionado would say.

Seriously though it's been Financial f*** up after Financial f*** up for 5 years. Picking the wrong players paying the wrong players getting the wrong players at the wrong time making the wrong moves at the wrong time and now yes with the Glorious advantage of hindsight it kind of makes you say to yourself- I remember not liking that move and I remember not liking the timing of that one etc etc down the line.

Honestly some of the decent discussion over the past couple weeks has been towing with a best case scenario being waiting out the Tavares contract as the best option? That is when the window actually opens? Are you f***ing kidding me. All the bleeding heart stuff aside if we would not have signed him and actually did some hard work and develop people our window could have opened anywhere from 2 to 4 years ago and could have been open for a very long time.

Oh but the cap will go up. Yes and so will support players contracts and so will contracts of guys getting paid after playoff runs which does happen I don't give a shit. And guess who else gets paid more, yes those guys. And due to the lack of hard work that we have done over the last 5 years we don't really have anything to truly pencil in as support over the next couple years to try an offset the higher salaries except for one Winger.

 

[Gabriel426]

He should be thanking Makar for that because he is the reason. MacKinnon couldn't get past the second round without him.

Mac I think is a good comparable for Matthews, but let's not pretend like Mac was the reason they won when he wasn't been able to do anything until his team sucked so much that they were able to draft Makar.

Also, if players only got paid for playoff success Tkachuk would be making $4 million right now.

Well Mack actually become the player he is when Avs went on a rebuild and traded ROR and Duchense away. Mack literally exploded after those trades.
To say that Mack is not a reason why Avs won is belittling him. Whenever I watch the Avs played, both Mack and Makar were just engines with the puck and it seems like they are going to make something happen.
To say that if it weren’t for Makar, Mack is not Mack or Mack doesn’t win the Cup is not an opinion that I think most hockey fans would share.
There is no shame to admit Mack is a better player than AM or MM bc Mack is arguably the 2nd best player behind McD.

 

[Gabriel426]

Have we not done the tough guy, you play for the Leafs and be happy with it, take what we offer or stuff it, our way or the highway approach with our best players before? Commonly referred to as “the Ballard era”?

Austin getting market value isn’t unfair. Heck, whatever he signs at, he’d get more UFA. He’s just not the piece to mess with, not your stud 1C. Mess around with whatever else, literally anything else, I’d lose one of the wingers for a stud 1D no problem, for example. Do it tomorrow Bundy.

Auston’s contract will be fine, it’s a no-brainer. You look elsewhere to do better. It’s honestly that simple. Everything else is not seeing the forest for the trees.

The question is what is AM market value?
Certainly not more than Mack’s new contract.

 

[Niagara Bill]

Have we not done the tough guy, you play for the Leafs and be happy with it, take what we offer or stuff it, our way or the highway approach with our best players before? Commonly referred to as “the Ballard era”?

Austin getting market value isn’t unfair. Heck, whatever he signs at, he’d get more UFA. He’s just not the piece to mess with, not your stud 1C. Mess around with whatever else, literally anything else, I’d lose one of the wingers for a stud 1D no problem, for example. Do it tomorrow Bundy.

Auston’s contract will be fine, it’s a no-brainer. You look elsewhere to do better. It’s honestly that simple. Everything else is not seeing the forest for the trees.

Evaluation of AM in comparison is the issue. Points is not the only stats, mins is a dumb measure, pp goals is half a story, an important consideration is off ice, room, leadership and position on team.
Softness is not a good thing is hockey. AM is soft.
So the team decision is, what can I add to my team for that 13m. Are we better with a #2 dman with a 30 goal replacement and a tough 3rd liner? Who plays extra minutes that AM would use up.
Is the flexibility of the cap of great value.
Is your success in regular season hockey the goal?
You need to look at the real player, would you say AM in a player category of HEART with Sittler, McDonald, Salming. What % of a $13m salary should be paid for heart and what % for points.
All this does not make AM a bad guy, but the Leafs must understand what is happening to the rest of the team based on his actions both in salary and daily.
to me, AM has a dilemma off ice, not sure what it is, but he is secluded and reclusive.
Just sayin.
Do what is best for the Leafs in all aspects.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Why did rantanen end up with a noticeably smaller rate than marner

Because he was a worse player than Marner. Through their ELCs, Marner produced better at 5v5 (2.39 > 1.87 overall, 1.91 > 1.31 primary) and on the PP (7.19 > 5.78 overall, 4.69 > 4.15 primary), despite being jerked around by Babcock instead of given prime offensive opportunities on a line more driven by Mackinnon. Marner was also better defensively, and brought additional PK impacts that Rantanen did not.

I’m pretty sure most of us just want players to play up to their contracts in the playoffs. They did not do that in the second round and went quietly into the night

Both Matthews and Marner are PPG or higher (with positive goal differentials) in the playoffs on their current contracts, through some of the toughest situations to produce (and injuries,, and despite the 3rd wheel on their line consistently either playing injured or doing a whole lot of nothing), while having dominant control of play/underlying metrics, and providing top tier defense, shutting down the opposition's best players.

Nobody is dominant in production in every series, and they didn't go quietly into the night. They battled hard and threw everything at Bobrovsky.
And regardless of how you choose to perceive what has happened so far, fact remains that they are our best bets at dominant playoff performances from that cap space.

 

[andora]

Because he was a worse player than Marner. Through their ELCs, Marner produced better at 5v5 (2.39 > 1.87 overall, 1.91 > 1.31 primary) and on the PP (7.19 > 5.78 overall, 4.69 > 4.15 primary), despite being jerked around by Babcock instead of given prime offensive opportunities on a line more driven by Mackinnon. Marner was also better defensively, and brought additional PK impacts that Rantanen did not.

Both Matthews and Marner are PPG or higher (with positive goal differentials) in the playoffs on their current contracts, through some of the toughest situations to produce (and injuries,, and despite the 3rd wheel on their line consistently either playing injured or doing a whole lot of nothing), while having dominant control of play/underlying metrics, and providing top tier defense, shutting down the opposition's best players.

Nobody is dominant in production in every series, and they didn't go quietly into the night. They battled hard and threw everything at Bobrovsky.
And regardless of how you choose to perceive what has happened so far, fact remains that they are our best bets at dominant playoff performances from that cap space.

Do salaries for post ELC contracts say in the last 10 years go from highest to lowest paralleling thos specific numbers?

Say for wingers

As in marners numbers being the best = highest contract?

 

[Mess]

Have we not done the tough guy, you play for the Leafs and be happy with it, take what we offer or stuff it, our way or the highway approach with our best players before? Commonly referred to as “the Ballard era”?

Austin getting market value isn’t unfair. Heck, whatever he signs at, he’d get more UFA. He’s just not the piece to mess with, not your stud 1C. Mess around with whatever else, literally anything else, I’d lose one of the wingers for a stud 1D no problem, for example. Do it tomorrow Bundy.

Auston’s contract will be fine, it’s a no-brainer. You look elsewhere to do better. It’s honestly that simple. Everything else is not seeing the forest for the trees.

Since you referenced me several times in your post, I'll say I support your opinion and stance on this position,

I also see Matthews as the teams franchise building block #1C and future captain.

I like what I'm hearing about out new GM trying to get Auston to lock-in long-term ,and willing to accept he is going to be the highest priced player in the NHL once its signed. Now you accept that and move on even though you know you're overpaying market to do so, He is a unique player and its better to keep then lose.

I think you can fix the Leafs overspending just as you say, trade a winger. For me it would be Marner as he is already overpriced and his next deal only going to be worse still. If you can turn him into a top pairing Dman you make that move. Instead of paying Marner $12 mil on his next deal I'd prefer a $6 mil C and $6 mil top 4 Dman instead.

Nylander coming off his deal allows for a raise to put him in market value range of $8.5 - $9 mil per for a 40 goal scorer and winger for Matthews on the top line.

In 2 years you walk away from the JT contract when it expires, or bring him back only as vet on a significantly reduced deal.

With Auston making ~ $13.5 etc and could be the only double digit player on the team in 2 years time down from 3 now, and you would increase your Cup competitiveness by being able to surround your core with strong depth. Core 4 of Matthews, Nylander, Rielly & another top pairing Dman.