Auston Matthews 69 goals in 81 games, most goals scored since Lemieux in 1995-96

[Slimmy]

Yes, but you’re suggesting we will see it. We will not see it unless we get league average .885 goaltending again.

It’s impossible for more goals to be scored without goaltending dropping unless you think they’re going to stop playing defence and average 50 shots per team a game?

The reason scoring was so high in that era was the goalies sucked. As soon as they started getting .900 goaltending, the goals per game dropped. League average save percentage is currently .904 this year - it was .885 in the early 90’s.

Sure. I'm saying that we are already in a high scoring era and that we will likely see it increase further. I base that on how the NHL has taken measures to increase scoring and that they will take more steps to ensure that scoring increases further.

 

[Divine]

Sure. I'm saying that we are already in a high scoring era and that we will likely see it increase further. I base that on how the NHL has taken measures to increase scoring and that they will take more steps to ensure that scoring increases further.

And if scoring increases, goaltending drops.

Team defence and goaltending today is miles better than it was in the 90’s. It’s highly unlikely we hit those levels again.

Scoring today is much harder than it was in the 80’s or 90’s, even with the added incentives.

 

[shaner82]

So we need to stop "blowing smoke" up the ass of the 2nd highest scoring goalscorer of all time because he didn't have any great goalscoring competition? So if Bossy, M. Richard and Brett Hull had played during OV's time, he would have less goals?

Nothing and nobody can take away Ovi's goals. Numbers are black and white and can't be disputed. What I find to be a bit of a faulty measuring stick is his number of rockets. If him and AM were drafted the same year, does Ovi have the same number of rockets?

Don't get me wrong. A rocket is an achievement to be celebrated as you can only compete against who's in front of you, but I'm not sure it's much of a measuring stick in terms of who is the greatest at goal scoring. If AM has more total goals than OVI at the end of his career but less rockets, who is the greatest goal scorer?

 

[Salsa Shark]

The fact he's smashing all of the Leaf's scoring records talks about the sad state of affairs of previous Leaf talent. Don't get me wrong, he's f***ing amazing...but he's going to surpass Sundin likely next season already.

Thats how I feel when I hear Kreider has the 3rd most goals in history of NYR haha

 

[kevsh]

10 or so years ago if someone bet me that all of the Leafs goal scoring records (and possibly some NHL records) would be in jeopardy when they drafted a Mexican-American kid from Arizona playing in Switzerland I would have lost a lot of money.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

That's how percentages work.

12 is 23% of 52.
9 is 23% of 39.

So if you took away 23% of each of their goals as some sort of league scoring adjustment, you'd end up at 40/30.

It's also worth noting that if scoring was 23% lower it would be the lowest scoring season in the NHL since pre world war 2 so it's a pretty meaningless number.

And another fun fact is that we're playing in an era of the lowest number of powerplay opportunities in a game in NHL history. Every year from 2015/2016 until this year has had fewer power play opportunities per game than the previous lowest season in history which was 77-78.

okay but how did he come to that number? and why is that correct? just seems like people trying to push the bar further and further until Ovechkin is literally untouchable

I also wonder if Matthews 52 goals is only actually worth 40 goals in a lower scoring era. how many goals does he need to score 41 in the lower scoring era? every 1.5 goals = 1 now or something?

really funny seeing this because if Matthews was on any other team we likely wouldnt be seeing this nonsense

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Ovechkin literally outscored him last year

to be fair there's a good chance that Matthews wrist was still bothering him from the year before when he just barely got his 59 and 60th goals. and then 40 goals is still pretty crazy for a down year.

people could argue for sure that he was what he was last year but seeing how hes going off again this season like he did majority of the season before the injury it kinda feels like hes healthy now and this is what were seeing.

this shit is just crazy though man, I also wont even say one is better than the other but its so awesome seeing these 60 goal seasons from Matthews, Pastrnak and McDavid. before them it was just Stammer and Ovechkin. we are literally so spoiled with elite goalscoring now

 

[Video Nasty]

still doesnt make sense why one is losing 12 to the other losing only 9. but still very curious how Drytoast got these numbers.

One of the key elements of adjusted stats is that depending on who one is trying to prop up (seems exclusively the Crosby and Ovechkin era), they make little sense.

 

[All Mod Cons]

10 or so years ago if someone bet me that all of the Leafs goal scoring records (and possibly some NHL records) would be in jeopardy when they drafted a Mexican-American kid from Arizona playing in Switzerland I would lost a lot of money.

I wonder how Americans feel about Matthews plying for the US? They don't seem to rate him that highly or like him as a person.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I wonder how Americans feel about Matthews plying for the US? They don't seem to rate him that highly or like him as a person.

they pass on him

 

[GMR]

He only scored once last night in a 7 goal game.

Disappointing.

 

[TheDoldrums]

I wonder how Americans feel about Matthews plying for the US? They don't seem to rate him that highly or like him as a person.

Pretty sure outside of the HFboards bubble the vast majority of American hockey fans will like and highly rate their best player come Olympics time. Outside of Atlantic division rivals (BOS/FLA/TB) I don't really see too many American fanbases downplaying him over the years.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

to be fair there's a good chance that Matthews wrist was still bothering him from the year before when he just barely got his 59 and 60th goals. and then 40 goals is still pretty crazy for a down year.

people could argue for sure that he was what he was last year but seeing how hes going off again this season like he did majority of the season before the injury it kinda feels like hes healthy now and this is what were seeing.

this shit is just crazy though man, I also wont even say one is better than the other but its so awesome seeing these 60 goal seasons from Matthews, Pastrnak and McDavid. before them it was just Stammer and Ovechkin. we are literally so spoiled with elite goalscoring now

Agreed

 

[Toby91ca]

He only scored once last night in a 7 goal game.

Disappointing.

I thought the same thing....getting kinda a crazy when only 1 goal in the game is a let down

 

[TDK67]

I'm not literally saying that we are seeing early 90's scoring levels now. I'm saying we are trending that way and that we are in an era now that borders on those years.

Not sure why this has to be speculated when the numbers are right here: NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com

League Avg Goals & Top Goal Scoring Total

* 2023-24: 3.13 (52g in 55gp)
* 2022-23: 3.18 (64g in 82gp)
* 2021-22: 3.14 (60g in 73gp)
* 1993-94: 3.24 (60g in 76gp)
* 1992-93: 3.63 (76g in 77gp)
* 1991-92: 3.48 (70g in 73gp)
* 1990-91: 3.46 (86g in 78gp)
* 1989-90: 3.68 (72g in 80gp)

League scoring is actually down this year vs the last two years. And league wide scoring this year is nowhere close to the scoring of the early 90s.

 

[hatterson]

okay but how did he come to that number? and why is that correct? just seems like people trying to push the bar further and further until Ovechkin is literally untouchable

I also wonder if Matthews 52 goals is only actually worth 40 goals in a lower scoring era. how many goals does he need to score 41 in the lower scoring era? every 1.5 goals = 1 now or something?

really funny seeing this because if Matthews was on any other team we likely wouldnt be seeing this nonsense

I have no idea how he came up with 23% and it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

One nuts thing about Matthews is that in the last 3 full seasons plus the 70% of this one that's been played, he's scored at a 62 goal per 82 game pace. Even if he didn't score another goal for the rest of this season he would still be at a 56.52 goal per 82 game pace.

For comparison, the best 4 year stretch that Ovechkin has in his career averaged a 56.49 goal 82 game pace.

 

[authentic]

I don't necessarily disagree. I'm simply putting Mathews season into perspective. I would caution anyone to compare current players with past players using goals and points totals alone. It's a shaky foundation at best. All of these "Fastest player since X to reach X points/goals since X" is largely pointless (pun intended) unless you provide context. If you are simply saying Mathews is the best goal scorer of the last X seasons, only counting active players, you have my ear. But comparing players who's prime did not overlap is very tricky. Hell, even comparing players from different teams is tricky. Quality of teammates matter aswell as role, play style, opportunity etc etc.


Absolutely. But, we are in early 90's territory now.

We are in mid 90s territory. League scoring is most similar to 1995-96, but the top players played far more on the powerplay back then hence why most of the elite/1st line players were scoring even more. 1993-94 is probably most comparable to today for scoring at the top. 1990-91 to 1992-93 were a much easier time for scoring, especially 1992-93, yet here we are with Matthews looking to score close to 76 (currently on pace for 77 but not likely he gets that much IMO). Even if you changed nothing about todays environment and just gave Matthews top 20-30 powerplay time instead of 60-70 then I think he would score more than 76, that’s how good he is.

 

[Rebels57]

Jesus, he has a shot at 60 in 60.

 

[authentic]

I have no idea how he came up with 23% and it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

One nuts thing about Matthews is that in the last 3 full seasons plus the 70% of this one that's been played, he's scored at a 62 goal per 82 game pace. Even if he didn't score another goal for the rest of this season he would still be at a 56.52 goal per 82 game pace.

For comparison, the best 4 year stretch that Ovechkin has in his career averaged a 56.49 goal 82 game pace.

This also includes playing injured the entirety of last season. When healthy-ish he has scored at a 65-77 goal pace.

Infact when not visibly nursing some sort of injury since the 2020-21 season he’s essentially a goal per game player.

 

[Auston Marlander]

wow okay so as of now 12 goals no longer matter. that's a pretty big drop in goals. how did you get this number anyways?

and why did Reinhart only lose 9?

I just explained why the person did it and how the math works.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I just explained why the person did it and how the math works.

yes but why did he figure those were the right numbers? and why are they the right numbers to take away? there has to be a reason how he came to that percentage right? you can make anything up but it doesnt mean its right

 

[wetcoast]

Hull was born in Canada, but he is American.

True but most of Hull's formative hockey development was in Canada, unlike waht most people consider American born players who are born, raised and devleoped in the USA.

It's like if Patrick Kane decided to became Canadian after playing with the London Knights or something, it would seem weird calling him a Canadian player but hey that's just me.

 

[Strangle]

Except league goals per game went down during their careers. Guess they drove it down. And no it didn't happen after their prime years, by 1986 it was already dropping. Anybody with a basic understanding of math and statistics can understand that 1 or 2 players can not have that kind of affect on scoring in a league with 500+ skaters.

If you don’t think Gretzky alone changed how all teams played the game, coached the game, officiated the game,

 

[WillTheThrill]

52 to 39 is WILD!

 

[Strangle]

I don't necessarily disagree. I'm simply putting Mathews season into perspective. I would caution anyone to compare current players with past players using goals and points totals alone. It's a shaky foundation at best. All of these "Fastest player since X to reach X points/goals since X" is largely pointless (pun intended) unless you provide context. If you are simply saying Mathews is the best goal scorer of the last X seasons, only counting active players, you have my ear. But comparing players who's prime did not overlap is very tricky. Hell, even comparing players from different teams is tricky. Quality of teammates matter aswell as role, play style, opportunity etc etc.


Absolutely. But, we are in early 90's territory now.

Just count the pucks going into the net