okay so how many more goals should Matthews, Pastrnak or McDavid put in to make up then? just seems like your pushing the goal posts here 3 players put 60 in since Stammer and before him Ovechkin. I dont think this is holding up as much as you think it does. very very very low amount of players hitting or exceeding 60.
this thread isn't to say Matthews will finish his career with more goals but more so if it's possible. and the pace he's going at literally makes this conversation possible.
yes he has a long way to go. but his pace and comparing him at the same games played and seeing where Matthews is at. makes it a little interesting does it not?
You’re trying to lengthen the timeline here. We’re looking at 4 times in a 3 year span once Matthews does it this year. It doesn’t matter that it didn’t happen for a bunch of years before that because league scoring has skyrocketed in recent years, and covid shortened the two years before that.
And it’s not just 60 goals, the number of 50 goal scorers and 40 goal scorers has also gone up. If we’re going to compare seasons, we need to look at the scoring environments. When Ovechkin scored 53 in 14-15, league average scoring was 2.67. This year it’s 3.07. Just a basic adjustment to league scoring would put it equivalent to 61 goals this year. But league scoring was depressed at the top of the league those years as well. Ovechkin was 41% better than the average of the rest of the top 10 goalscorers that year. If he was the same lead above the 2-10 goalscorers this year, would put him at 47 goals currently, which means likely 65ish over a full season. I do think that method can be problematic, but I do think using both shows that, while it’s not a huge edge, it is slightly better objectively than scoring 60 today. Roughly somewhere in the low 60s.
I’m also not sure you’re fully realizing what the discussion was about. Two posters were discussing Matthews’ ability to become the GOAT goal scorer over Ovechkin by the time his career is over and one brought up that after this year he’ll still be behind Ovechkin by 6 Rockets, and the other responded that he could lose the Rocket and still have a better year than some of Ovechkin’s, using the example of Pasta scoring 65 and Matthews scoring 60. I agreed with the sentiment that Matthews doesn’t have to necessarily win the same number of Rockets because not all Rockets are the same but added that I don’t think 60 today is necessarily is better than some of Ovechkin’s Rockets in the later half of his career, with my reasoning based on the numbers above. It would admittedly be similar though.
Also, none of this is related to this season where he’s going to very likely surpass 60 by a decent amount. So your whole “how many more goals?” question doesn’t make sense to me. Are you thinking I mean anywhere in the 60s and not 60 exactly?
If we’re looking at the 14-15 season I mention above, McDavid scored 64, not 60, so I would consider his year a bit ahead. Pasta, scored 61, so it would be pretty similar. Matthews scored 60 but it was in 73 games, so I’d consider it a bit ahead as well. Though all of them would be pretty close. Matthews in 20-21 I’d also consider around the same level though obviously a shortened year. All of them would also be above Rocket years like Crosby in 16-17.