Atlantic Standings Predictions Thread

[The Gr8 Dane]

I can see us finishing last in the division , id rather that than be middle of the pack honestly. Still need our D prospects to mature before thinking about seriously making the loffs

 

[dgibb10]

Your premise is wrong from the start. Montreal's record was NOT propped up by amazing goaltending. Therefore there's no logical argument that Montembeault is due to regress. That's pure fantasy. Markstrom at 34/35 is much more likely to regress and take New Jersey even further down.

As for the Habs' goal differential, it reflects a young core of defencemen and forwards who are developing and improving each season... not to mention the high-end prospects being added to the team. The differential has been improving as the team continues to grow, which is why their overall record continues to improve. There's no logical argument that everything will regress.

You're trying hard to sell the notion that everything will magically get worse for Montreal, but it mostly reads like wishful thinking.

I 100% expect Markstrom to regress from what he was last year (a top 3-5 goalie) as well yes.

Markstrom Allen combined for about 30 GSAx last year
Allen Primeau about 27

I expect both those combos to be around 0-10 GSAx this year as a prediction.

When have I said MTL will regress? You seem to be confused.

I think their PK will still suck ass. I think their PP will be better. I expect worse goaltending results simply because I tend to predict approximately average goaltending for most teams unless they have a select few guys. I think they may have an improvement 5v5.

I think they won't get 16 loser points next year inflating their point totals.

I think MTL will finish right around the vegas line of 75.5 points, in the 5th-7th slot for draft position (competing with Chicago, and a team like Pittsburgh who I could see falling off)

 

[nbwingsfan]

Detroit and Buffalo absolutely did not get better.

Giving away a top 4 D, and a 2nd round pick for literally nothing does not make you better

Having 4 goalies does not make you better

Replacing Jeff Skinner with Jason Zucker does not make you better, in fact that makes you worse.

Trading a 2nd round pick for a 4th liner does not make you better.

Trading a top prospect for a 3rd line C doesn't make a difference.

Not everybody in the division got better, but NOBODY lost ground to either Buffalo or Detroit

Edvisson for a full year >>> Walman

Kane for a full year >>> Kane for 30 games

Talbot >>> Lyon

Tarasenko >>> Perron

 

[dgibb10]

Edvisson for a full year >>> Walman

Kane for a full year >>> Kane for 30 games

Talbot >>> Lyon

Tarasenko >>> Perron

Rookie Edvinsson is likely a downgrade from 27 year old Walman

Kane played 50 games last year and also expecting him to play more at age 36 (and be as good as he was last year) is questionable.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Some people will look like Fools when it's all said and done, but mainly dgibb10

Ottawa ain't going nowhere, Montréal finish last again this year but it's the last year we finish behind the Sens for the next decade at the very least

 

[saska sault]

Rookie Edvinsson is likely a downgrade from 27 year old Walman

Kane played 50 games last year and also expecting him to play more at age 36 (and be as good as he was last year) is questionable.

Meanwhile one was scratched for the most important games of the season and one was playing. Take a guess which one was in the press box.

 

[dgibb10]

Meanwhile one was scratched for the most important games of the season and one was playing. Take a guess which one was in the press box.

Sounds like a bad coaching decision.

 

[Canadienna]

I don't think Dach is a legitimate asset even strength. I'm sorry but he has not shown to be an effective NHL centerman.

Patrick Laine and Kirby Dach aren't exactly guys who win their minutes even strength.

When Patrick Laine and Kirby Dach are on the ice, the other team is usually outshooting, outchancing, and outscoring them.

Dach has simply not been successful as a centermen 5v5. His individual production has been lacklustre at best for a top 6 guy (never cracked 20 points 5v5 and his rates usually fall outside the top 200 for forwards).

And, outside of a stretch playing on Nick Suzuki's wing, his possession metrics have also been pretty dogshit throughout his career.

The only concern I have about Dach is staying healthy. Outside of that, this idea that he's not a C and won't produce as one is silly and I'm calling it out here. Feel free to @ me if I am wrong because I know you will get called out if I'm right.

Dach is going to surprise a lot of people if this is how fans of other teams think of him.

 

[saska sault]

Sounds like a bad coaching decision.

Detroit may not recover from the loss of 20 point Walman, we can really only hope Edvinsson can make a similar impact on both ends of the ice.

Goaltending is definitely a question mark. The teams overall on the ice performance and in terms of talent has improved for 5 straight years. Most fans believe the trend is in the right direction.

 

[dgibb10]

The only concern I have about Dach is staying healthy. Outside of that, this idea that he's not a C and won't produce as one is silly and I'm calling it out here. Feel free to @ me if I'm wrong am because I know you will get called out if I'm right.

Dach is going to surprise a lot of people if this is how fans of other teams think of him.

Kirby Dach is a decent PP weapon but he's 23 years old now and has yet to produce effectively as an even strength player, or win his minutes as a center.

Maybe my even strength expectations are too high, but I don't think 20 points 5v5 is a big ask to hit for a "top 6 center", especially one who's played with Alex Debrincat, Nick Suzuki, and Cole Caufield

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I 100% expect Markstrom to regress from what he was last year (a top 3-5 goalie) as well yes.

Markstrom Allen combined for about 30 GSAx last year
Allen Primeau about 27

I expect both those combos to be around 0-10 GSAx this year as a prediction.

When have I said MTL will regress? You seem to be confused.

I think their PK will still suck ass. I think their PP will be better. I expect worse goaltending results simply because I tend to predict approximately average goaltending for most teams unless they have a select few guys. I think they may have an improvement 5v5.

I think they won't get 16 loser points next year inflating their point totals.

I think MTL will finish right around the vegas line of 75.5 points, in the 5th-7th slot for draft position (competing with Chicago, and a team like Pittsburgh who I could see falling off)

Pittsburgh won't truly fall off until Crosby is gone, once that happens then they will fall off and when they do they will fall off HARD

 

[Lshap]

I 100% expect Markstrom to regress from what he was last year (a top 3-5 goalie) as well yes.

Markstrom Allen combined for about 30 GSAx last year
Allen Primeau about 27

I expect both those combos to be around 0-10 GSAx this year as a prediction.

When have I said MTL will regress? You seem to be confused.

I think their PK will still suck ass. I think their PP will be better. I expect worse goaltending results simply because I tend to predict approximately average goaltending for most teams unless they have a select few guys. I think they may have an improvement 5v5.

I think they won't get 16 loser points next year inflating their point totals.

I think MTL will finish right around the vegas line of 75.5 points, in the 5th-7th slot for draft position (competing with Chicago, and a team like Pittsburgh who I could see falling off)

Every year, fans settle on stories about how a team will do. And every year they're proven wrong. I'm not accusing you in particular, just pointing out these Standing Prediction threads are just wild guesses, most of which turn into giant strikeout swings by season's end.

Your guess is noted, along with other guesses that have Montreal squeaking into a wildcard spot. As they say, the truth is somewhere in between.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Cam Atkinson has hit 40 goals more recently than Laine.

And Laine requires significant power play time (this is going to take away significant production from 1 of Caufield, Slaf, or Dach).



When Patrick Laine and Kirby Dach are on the ice, the other team is usually outshooting, outchancing, and outscoring them. (and this dates back to when laine was on a playoff contender in WPG, and don't give me some BS about how playing with newhook and Dach is somehow better than Johnny Hockey).

Kirby Dach had a brief period of success as a winger with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Unfortunately, that is also where Slaf had his success. And you can't play them both with Caufield-Suzuki

So, you're saying that the Habs should not score more goals than last year?

 

[ZYXWVUT]

1. BOS
2. TOR
3. FLA
4. TBL
5. BUF
6. OTT
7. DET
8. MTL

 

[Wayfarer13]

Not what I said at all.

Goalies are volatile year to year. And Montembault and Primeau are not in the tier where you can expect great goaltending every year. 1 great year of goaltending does not mean those goalies will be great again every year after. They could be as good, they could be better, they could be worse, they could be a lot worse.

If I was to predict, I would expect average to slightly above average goaltending from MTL.

Jacob Markstrom was also excellent last year. If I were to expect him to repeat his 30 GSAx season again that would be incredibly unlikely and optimistic.

I expect MTLs record to reflect their goal differential. I expect their goal differential to reflect their expected goal differential.

MTL had a pretty normal record in close games considering their overall record. (in fact they got a bunch of loser points to inflate their point totals).

When have I said I expect them to lose all their close games? I expect them to have less than 26 OT games next year, and less than 16 loser points next year.

something around 34-40-8 (a 4 win increase) would be a pretty reasonable record to expect, for 76 points once again

Now factor in a few things here as to their effects on things. First would be the first line scoring 20 to 40 more goals. Second would be they have a second line now.Not out of the question Laine pops 30 or more goals.Thirdly the blueline will be more mature. Fourth.What if Hutson hits?.Fithly- goaltending. Both the lads played better after Allen was traded.Don't see any stoppage in their development curve.Sixly.Perhaps MSL starts teaching defensive systems. Been working on other aspects so far. Finally health should continue to get better.

 

[dgibb10]

Every year, fans settle on stories about how a team will do. And every year they're proven wrong. I'm not accusing you in particular, just pointing out these Standing Prediction threads are just wild guesses, most of which turn into giant strikeout swings by season's end.

Your guess is noted, along with other guesses that have Montreal squeaking into a wildcard spot. As they say, the truth is somewhere in between.

Or the truth isn't somewhere in between.

You're welcome to go bet on MTLs over.

it's 75.5. All they have to do to hit the over is match their point total from last year

So, you're saying that the Habs should not score more goals than last year?

Not what I said at all.

 

[thebestnic]

The only concern I have about Dach is staying healthy. Outside of that, this idea that he's not a C and won't produce as one is silly and I'm calling it out here. Feel free to @ me if I am wrong because I know you will get called out if I'm right.

Dach is going to surprise a lot of people if this is how fans of other teams think of him.

Guy is a joke, he started using points instead of Corsi when the Corsi didn't align with his opinion

 

[dgibb10]

Now factor in a few things here as to their effects on things. First would be the first line scoring 20 to 40 more goals. Second would be they have a second line now.Not out of the question Laine pops 30 or more goals.Thirdly the blueline will be more mature. Fourth.What if Hutson hits?.Fithly- goaltending. Both the lads played better after Allen was traded.Don't see any stoppage in their development curve.Sixly.Perhaps MSL starts teaching defensive systems. Been working on other aspects so far. Finally health should continue to get better.

40 more goals from the first line lmao.

I'd recommend betting thousands of dollars on them to make the playoffs at like +1000 or the cup at like +10000 if you think they have even the slightest chance of averaging 40 goals each between the 3 of them with Laine also hitting 30.

The Mackinnon Rantanen line didn't come close to 120 goals between the 3 of them (112)

MCDAVID DRAISAITL AND HYMAN only combined for 127 goals.

Guy is a joke, he started using points instead of Corsi when the Corsi didn't align with his opinion

I haven't used corsi a single time in this thread

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I would agree that's possible, however that still doesn't line up with the actual point adressed; that Detroit/Ottawa/Buffalo/Montreal is the "bad group" in the division. You are basically agreeing with my larger point about uncertainty in the division, only difference is that you're a stronger believer in Ottawa and you're putting more money on Detroit regressing.


Corsi gets defeated every season.

They are part of the bad group Montreal can at least remember their last playoff run, the other 3 can't, 2 of the other 3 are getting dangerously close to a decade without playoffs, the other one is working on their 2nd decade.

Yes there is in fact a bad group.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Now factor in a few things here as to their effects on things. First would be the first line scoring 20 to 40 more goals. Second would be they have a second line now.Not out of the question Laine pops 30 or more goals.Thirdly the blueline will be more mature. Fourth.What if Hutson hits?.Fithly- goaltending. Both the lads played better after Allen was traded.Don't see any stoppage in their development curve.Sixly.Perhaps MSL starts teaching defensive systems. Been working on other aspects so far. Finally health should continue to get better.

I’m reading a lot of what ifs, you don’t think MSL has been teaching defensive systems in 2 1/2 years lol, I think you meant to say will the players start buying into the defensive systems.
Montreal will get another top 10 pick in June.

 

[Wayfarer13]

40 more goals from the first line lmao.

I'd recommend betting thousands of dollars on them to make the playoffs at like +1000 or the cup at like +10000 if you think they have even the slightest chance of averaging 40 goals each between the 3 of them with Laine also hitting 30.

The Mackinnon Rantanen line didn't come close to 120 goals between the 3 of them (112)

MCDAVID DRAISAITL AND HYMAN only combined for 127 goals.



I haven't used corsi a single time in this thread

If they match the second performance there's the first 20. If the second line clicks that's less coverage given to them.Gotta be few goals in that.Hutson ?Gee the boy has skills a few goals there. If health agrees 20 for sure and then add to it.

 

[Lshap]

Or the truth isn't somewhere in between.

You're welcome to go bet on MTLs over.

it's 75.5. All they have to do to hit the over is match their point total from last year


Not what I said at all.

The truth is not found in Vegas odds (their 2023/24 predictions were substantially off for almost half the teams) and it's certainly not found in your guesses.

Betting isn't my thing. Hockey is. I've been following it for over 50 years, long enough to see the vast majority of confident predictions by fans and experts fall completely flat.

 

[dgibb10]

The truth is not found in Vegas odds (their 2023/24 predictions were substantially off for almost half the teams) and it's certainly not found in your guesses.

Betting isn't my thing. Hockey is. I've been following it for over 50 years, long enough to see the vast majority of confident predictions by fans and experts fall completely flat.

And on some teams the vegas odds were too low, and some too high.

MTL may finish lower than the vegas projected line. They may finish higher. (that is the whole point of the line, that they would finish higher approximately half the time and lower approximately half the time).

If you think they will finish much higher, i recommend taking advantage of this line

 

[Wayfarer13]

I’m reading a lot of what ifs, you don’t think MSL has been teaching defensive systems in 2 1/2 years lol, I think you meant to say will the players start buying into the defensive systems.
Montreal will get another top 10 pick in June.

What I have read in the past(and don't me ask the source) Defensive systems they have not put a lot of work into yet. MSL will tackle that when he deems it fit. The spectrum of where they will finish runs from in a bottom 10 where nothing works and everything blows up to a playoff spot. I see too many tipping points indicating a move forward will occur while you may see none. Season starts in a month.

 

[dgibb10]

If they match the second performance there's the first 20. If the second line clicks that's less coverage given to them.Gotta be few goals in that.Hutson ?Gee the boy has skills a few goals there. If health agrees 20 for sure and then add to it.

That "second performance" was reliant on Nick Suzuki shooting 23% lmao.

If you think a rookie dman and patrick Laine on the 2nd line is going to turn Caufield-Suzuki-Slafkofsky into a line more productive than McDavid and Mackinnons lines I don't know what to tell you.

If anything Laine as a PP weapon will take PP goals away from Caufield/Suzuki/Slaf with him as the new trigger man.