Atlantic Division Standings Watch

[Sharp Shooting Neely]

Comparisson of the Bruins projected Point Totals for this season/last season by years end. Apologies for the poor formatting despite the repeated efforts.

Eastern Division Standings as of Dec 31/15 and Dec 31/16:

___ 2015 Pts_____ 2016 Pts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
*1A-Flo:46--------- Mtrl:50
2A-Mtrl:45------- Ott:44
3A-Bos:44------- Bos:44

*1M-Was:58--------CBJ:56
*2M-NYI:47-------- Pitt:55
*3M-NYR:46--------NYR:53

1WC-NJD:43------- Wash:47
*2WC-Det:43-------Phi:44
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ott:42 --------TB:42
*Pit:40 -------- Flo:40
*TB:40 -------- Tor:39
*Phil:37--------Car:36
Car:37---------NYI:36
Tor:35--------- Det:36
Buf:34-------- NJD:35
CBJ:31-------- Buf:34

* Team that did make the PO's.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2015 Pace: - Bos. 36 GP - 1.22 PPG - 44 PTS Actual: 82 GP. - 1.13PPG - 93 PTS
2016 Pace: - Bos. 39 GP - 1.13 PPG - 44 PTS Projected: 82 GP - 1.13 PPG - 93 PTS

What if:
Should the Bruins be able to perhaps swap the faster start/slower finish of 15 for the slower start/with a faster finish in 16, it could yield approximately 97 or more total points by seasons end.

Simply some food for thought.

 

[KnightofBoston]

I've thought since the beginning of the season the bruins would would have a stronger second half than first

The key is Rask and whether or not relief can be provided for him.

 

[BruinDust]

I've thought since the beginning of the season the bruins would would have a stronger second half than first

The key is Rask and whether or not relief can be provided for him.

The key is Rask and part of that is they need to figure out this back-up goaltender situation ASAP.

Over-work Rask now in Jan/Feb and be prepared for a collapse similar to the last two seasons in March/April as Rask will be cooked from too many games in the 1st three quarters.

 

[bob27]

They also need to learn to run up the score when they have the advantage. Last game was the first time in a long time they got a 3 goal lead. It would've been a totally different game if Schaller's fluky goal didn't go in and Bruins were only leading by one going into the third.

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

2nd or 3rd seed would be perfect.

Let the Habs win the division and lose to Clb, Pitt, NYR or Wsh in round 1.

 

[smithformeragent]

Games played is the Bruins' biggest opponent right now in terms of the standings.

Tied in points with Ottawa and two points ahead of Toronto.
However, both clubs have a whopping four games in hand on Boston.

This thing feels over already.

 

[BruinsFanMike82]

Couldn't decide which thread was best for this, but this one will do.

The Bruins have reached the halfway point of their regular season. Here is how they have performed so far:

• Record vs teams over .500 = 6W - 10L
• Record vs teams at or below .500 = 14W - 11L
• Combined record of opponents in Bruins wins = 168W - 183L (.479 winning percentage)
• Combined record of opponents in Bruins losses = 224W - 217L (.508 winning percentage)

*I have combined regulation losses and overtime/shootout losses, as there are no loser points in the playoffs.
*The team win/loss records are recorded at the time that the games versus the Bruins took place. Not the opponents current win/loss records.

 

[talkinaway]

Games played is the Bruins' biggest opponent right now in terms of the standings.

Tied in points with Ottawa and two points ahead of Toronto.
However, both clubs have a whopping four games in hand on Boston.

This thing feels over already.

Yes and no. IMO, we're behind the Leafs - I'd probably swap stats with them, because their PTS% is higher. But there's a huge advantage in not having the games in hand: namely, we don't have to actually play the games in hand. Statistically, it means on average we should have fewer back-to-backs and fewer 3-in-4s. It definitely means we have more rest days. That can make a difference.

Of course, the teams we have to play also has a bearing on where we are. Hopefully we don't have too much in the Metro - it seems we've played them a lot.

 

[Mpasta]

Couldn't decide which thread was best for this, but this one will do.

The Bruins have reached the halfway point of their regular season. Here is how they have performed so far:

• Record vs teams over .500 = 6W - 10L
• Record vs teams at or below .500 = 14W - 11L
• Combined record of opponents in Bruins wins = 168W - 183L (.479 winning percentage)
• Combined record of opponents in Bruins losses = 224W - 217L (.508 winning percentage)

*I have combined regulation losses and overtime/shootout losses, as there are no loser points in the playoffs.
*The team win/loss records are recorded at the time that the games versus the Bruins took place. Not the opponents current win/loss records.

Nice info.

To look at it a different way, I believe Sagarin has the data of what the current opponents record is which doesn't mean as much. The Bruins have the following record:

3-11 against top 10 teams
5-15 against top 16 teams

For comparison sake, the last place team in the East (Islanders) are 7-12 against top 10 teams and 10-14 against top 16 teams. The Avalanche are 5-7 against top 10 and 7-11 against top 16.

 

[Fenway]

Entering Friday night

I can't make the numbers work right now.

The home record is the killer especially with the regulation losses. I am now projecting them to be around 12th in the conference.

 

[Jorah Marshmont]

Remaining January schedule
Bruins- FLA, CAR, STL, NSH, PHI, NYI, DET, CHI, PIT, DET, PIT, TBL--- 12 GM, 5 against playoff teams
Senators- WSH, EDM, PIT, TOR, STL, CBJ, TOR, CBJ, WSH, CGY, FLA--- 11 GM, 8 against playoff teams
Toronto- MTL, NYR, OTT, BUF, NYR, OTT, CGY, DET, PHI, DAL--- 10 GM, 7 against playoff teams
Tampa Bay- PHI, PIT, BUF, CBJ, LAK, ANA, SJS, ARI, CHI, FLA, BOS--- 11 GM, 8 against playoff teams
Florida- BOS, NJD, NYI, NYI, CBJ, CGY, EDM, VAN, ARI, TBL, OTT--- 11 GM, 5 against playoff teams
Detroit- SJS, CHI, DAL, PIT, MTL, BOS, BUF, NYR, BOS, TOR, NJD--- 11 GM, 7 against playoff teams

Teams holding a playoff spot as of right now in bold.

 

[remer]

Remaining January schedule
Bruins- FLA, CAR, STL, NSH, PHI, NYI, DET, CHI, PIT, DET, PIT, TBL--- 12 GM, 5 against playoff teams
Senators- WSH, EDM, PIT, TOR, STL, CBJ, TOR, CBJ, WSH, CGY, FLA--- 11 GM, 8 against playoff teams
Toronto- MTL, NYR, OTT, BUF, NYR, OTT, CGY, DET, PHI, DAL--- 10 GM, 7 against playoff teams
Tampa Bay- PHI, PIT, BUF, CBJ, LAK, ANA, SJS, ARI, CHI, FLA, BOS--- 11 GM, 8 against playoff teams
Florida- BOS, NJD, NYI, NYI, CBJ, CGY, EDM, VAN, ARI, TBL, OTT--- 11 GM, 5 against playoff teams
Detroit- SJS, CHI, DAL, PIT, MTL, BOS, BUF, NYR, BOS, TOR, NJD--- 11 GM, 7 against playoff teams

Teams holding a playoff spot as of right now in bold.

Well if you consider that games in hand will cause Boston some trouble.
Ott- 4, Tor 3, Car- 2, Det-2, FL-1 and TB- 1

It is looking pretty slim for the Bruins to make the playoffs. They need to be one of Toronto or Ottawa. They can't lose to teams like FL, Car., TB, Det. or N.J.
DNQ for playoffs is likely the result.

 

[Jorah Marshmont]

Well if you consider that games in hand will cause Boston some trouble.
Ott- 4, Tor 3, Car- 2, Det-2, FL-1 and TB- 1

It is looking pretty slim for the Bruins to make the playoffs. They need to be one of Toronto or Ottawa. They can't lose to teams like FL, Car., TB, Det. or N.J.
DNQ for playoffs is likely the result.

Exactly, and the Bruins will play one or two MORE games than all the rest for the remainder of January. It isn't a good situation to be in.

 

[Coach Parker]

I've thought since the beginning of the season the bruins would would have a stronger second half than first

The key is Rask and whether or not relief can be provided for him.

The relief starts right before Rask and leads into him.

For years Chara has burnt out playing top minutes for the Bruins down the stretch. Now with Carlo they are showing signs of fatigue and mental error. The legs come next.

Krug - XXX
Chara - Carlo
Miller - Miller
XXX

Rask
McIntyre

If someone pushes them down to the second pairing then their minutes are reduced, they don't burn out and the shot quality and scoring opportunities against Rask are reduced keeping him fresh for the final push.

 

[Sharp Shooting Neely]

Exactly, and the Bruins will play one or two MORE games than all the rest for the remainder of January. It isn't a good situation to be in.

Timely piece below on the Sens that points to it not being optimistic that they can stay in the race. Provides an analysis to back it up. It's a big factor that could help the Bruins chances greatly. When coupled with the seemingly earnest attempt to improve the team with a trade now and a lot of runway in front of them at the half way point of the season, the possibility of them making it may be better than we think. No other Atlantic division teams currently trailing them seem to be able to sustain and meaningful level of play in the Atlantic. Of course at some point they have to help their own cause and win games. Failing to do so makes all this academic.

Posted earlier in this thread that 3 eastern teams that were not in PO positions on Dec 31/15 went on to improved play in the second half of last season and made it in. One of those teams, the eventual Stanley Cup champion Pittsburg Penguins. It certainly does not have to be over for the Bruins by any stretch at this point.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/ottawa-senators-bound-fall-playoff-contention/

 

[Caper Bruins fan]

Entering Friday night

I can't make the numbers work right now.

The home record is the killer especially with the regulation losses. I am now projecting them to be around 12th in the conference.

With the Leafs and Sens losing tonight, how do things look at the moment ?

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

theres reasons for us not to be happy with the bruins situation... but the team isn't playing in a vacuum... betting money on the opposition might be a losing proposition too

lets figure out where we stand by incorportating some opinions on these other teams...

right away we know 3 playoff spots in the east were never ours to begin with... so it really doesn't matter what Columbus/Washington/pittsburg are doing. they are all projecting to be over 30 games above 500... over 110 points... but it doesn't matter

now theres 5 playoff spots left up for grabs... lets see who will be the contenders...

rangers... they are 15 games over 500... great road record... huge goal differential... we can safely put them in for one wild card spot

canadiens... 16 games over 500... again huge goal differential... managing to keep winning despite injuries... good road record... a 10 point lead over us with only 40 games left would be very difficult to overcome.

so this leaves only 3 playoff spots still up for our contention... but is there anyone else that has a better claim than us to these spots?

Ottawa has played 21 home games and only 17 road games. they have allowed more goals than they scored. they are on a 4-4-2 pace their last 10 games.

philly has played 22 home games... only 19 road games... allow more goals than scored... are a sad 3-5-2 in their last 10... take away their 7 game win streak and they are 14-15-5... is the real team the one that won 7 in a row or was that an abnormality that temporarily put them into the playoff race?

I don't think Ottawa or philly have shown me anything that makes me think we cant outplay them the second half...

then who else might pop up and contend?

Toronto has more goals scored than allowed... but they dress 4 dmen most nights that we wouldn't want on our team...

tampa bay supposedly is a contender... but they are 1 game above 500... bishop has sucked this year... they cant win on the road... and they are 4-4-2 in their last 10 so clearly haven't gotten their act together yet

florida has allowed 18 goals more than they scored, cant win on the road...

who else is there? a bunch of teams that have played below 500 hockey the past 10 games? none of these teams have gained a single point on us in the past 10 games.

I'm not saying we are guaranteed a spot in the playoffs... because we haven't been winning the games we need to win either.

but we have a strong road record... we score more than we allow... we have been above 500 the last 10 games...

and we know several of our key players have been struggling...

these other teams below us... have proven nothing in the past 3-4 years... none of them have a history that shows us they are battle tested {except maybe tampa}

we MUST stay healthy for sure... health could kill us because we aren't deep... but health will kill any of these teams... none of them are deep

yes... yes yes yes... we aren't playing as well as our fans want... and yes its natural to worry or even be disappointed... yes...

but there aren't 8 other super powerhouses ready to knock us out of the playoffs. weve been playing well enough to be in the playoffs... we are in the playoffs... we are likely to remain in the playoffs.

if I was betting my money... I say we are a playoff team

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

With the Leafs and Sens losing tonight, how do things look at the moment ?

the games played thing makes it hard to compare midseason standings... baseball uses a games over 500 formula to try to make more sense of standings.

Ottawa is 6 games over 500
Toronto is 5 games over 500
we are 4 games over 500

Toronto is on a hot streak their past 10 games
we are trending water
Ottawa is showing signs of faltering

Ottawa has road games to make up and allows more goals than they score

Toronto is young and unproven with a goalie that has never carried a team

boston has seen most their best players struggling up front this year but lately they are bouncing back

today... things could go any direction for these 3 teams. but when I look at the relevant factors id much rather be in bostons skates than Ottawa or Toronto.

 

[talkinaway]

Still sticking my by thought that we need 6/8 (now 4/6 nmore) on this road trip. I still can't believe the NHL doesn't sort by either PTS% or PTS-GP, and baseball, where every team is typically within 1 or 2, rarely 3, games of each other, does it the right way when it's practically unnecessary.

We're still out of the playoffs if they sorted the ratings properly, but a good showing on the road will get us back in there. I just want them to continue the momentum coming home.

 

[Fenway]

With the Leafs and Sens losing tonight, how do things look at the moment ?

Everybody has played less games so......

 

[bizman]

With the Leafs and Sens losing tonight, how do things look at the moment ?

A lot better than yesterday.

 

[Pia8988]

I remember the Bruins having games in hand last 2 years and still ****ing it up.

 

[ODAAT]

If this team went on even a modest win streak (say 5 games) it would go a long way to creating a touch of breathing room as I find those close to them are as inconsistent as they are.

I love watching that Leafs team but I see a group that as things ramp up for playoff positioning, youth will start to show

 

[Fenway]

We are not going to get a true reading of where the B's stand until this games in hand imbalance is sorted out.

It could very well come down to the Bruins and Flyers for the final wildcard but we have 3 months to go. I am eliminating Buffalo and Detroit (gasp) from playoff consideration and frankly both Florida based teams continue to flounder.

For the Bruins to grab a Top 3 slot in the Atlantic the path is simple......they have 3 games with Ottawa and 2 with Toronto. They need to avoid losing in regulation in those 5 games.

After a lot of weighing the pros and cons I now believe it is best for this franchise to make the playoffs this year and even if it is one and out they will be better off long term.

The most frustrating part of this is in 19 home games they have 10 regulation losses.

 

[caz16]

The fact that the Bruins have played more games than the other teams may also be the reason for fatigue we are seeing. They have some decent gaps coming up, hopefully to refuel and play better afterwards.

We saw how long it took for Bergy to recover from the World Cup...maybe, just maybe, we see better things in the future when injuries get a chance to heal.