LEAFS GDT Atlantic Division - Race to the 1st

[Al14]

Contrary to what some may think, there's no such thing as a meaningless game. A loss in October is equal to a loss in April.

Exactly right. I hate when Leaf fans write on here in late October or early November, that the loss last night doesn't matter. Every single loss counts against a better points total at season's end !!!

 

[Evilhomer]

Looking beyond just the Atlantic, it will be important for the Leafs to finish ahead of Carolina as that could very well be their conference final opponent.

 

[Mess]

Goal scoring. .

Bobby McMann (20 goals) -- Tavares (36 goals) -- Nylander (42 goals) = 98 goals
vs
Matthew Knies (26 goals) -- Matthews (29 goals) -- Marner (24 goals) = 73 goals

Differential = 25 goals .

Leafs are going to need the Matthews line to start contributing more NOW and come playoff time as the Tavares line will need help, as they continue to carry the team forward in WINS.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Let's see if TB can beat Ottawa tonight. If they do, the game we have against them will be huge and will probably decide it.

 

[Fogelhund]

Let's see if TB can beat Ottawa tonight. If they do, the game we have against them will be huge and will probably decide it.

Go Ottawa... man I feel dirty.

 

[The Shadow]

Goal scoring. .

Bobby McMann (20 goals) -- Tavares (36 goals) -- Nylander (42 goals) = 98 goals
vs
Matthew Knies (26 goals) -- Matthews (29 goals) -- Marner (24 goals) = 73 goals

Differential = 25 goals .

Leafs are going to need the Matthews line to start contributing more NOW and come playoff time as the Tavares line will need help, as they continue to carry the team forward in WINS.

This is misleading as Knies and matthews missed quite a bit of time

Let’s see since Feb 1st

 

[mclaren55]

This is misleading as Knies and matthews missed quite a bit of time

Let’s see since Feb 1st

Not sure how accurate the info is (ChatGPT Pro);

JT, Nylander, McMann = 41 Goals
Matthews, Marner, Knies = 35 Goals

Since Feb. 1st.

 

[Suntouchable13]

This is misleading as Knies and matthews missed quite a bit of time

Let’s see since Feb 1st

Any way you slice it, that line has more goals. JT scored the most goals since 4 Nations, in the entire NHL.

 

[ACC1224]

Not sure how accurate the info is (ChatGPT Pro);

JT, Nylander, McMann = 41 Goals
Matthews, Marner, Knies = 35 Goals

Since Feb. 1st.

You would imagine some of those are on the PP when they are all on the ice together.

 

[mclaren55]

You would imagine some of those are on the PP when they are all on the ice together.

Yea probably, I didn't drill down at all.

 

[Confucius]

Any way you slice it, that line has more goals. JT scored the most goals since 4 Nations, in the entire NHL.

if we take the top 3 goal scorers off every team, the Line of William, JT, McMann would be the 5th highest scoring line in the entire league.
Behind
Edmonton
Washington
Winnipeg
Tampa
And I’m not sure if the top 3 from those teams play together as a line.

 

[Confucius]

You would imagine some of those are on the PP when they are all on the ice together.

Mathews 10 Marner 6 Knies 4 total 20
JT 12, William 12, McMann 3 total 27

 

[HockeyVirus]

Exactly right. I hate when Leaf fans write on here in late October or early November, that the loss last night doesn't matter. Every single loss counts against a better points total at season's end !!!

When I say that, I mean I don't care if they played like a cup looking team or played like a last place team in late Oct / Nov. The way teams are playing, their record, none of it really matters for playoff results.

Compare that to 2 weeks before the playoffs. Teams are complete post deadline, they have had a season to master their system and learn their linemates, and they are supposed to represent the finished product for the playoff.

I am vastly more concerned with no shows at this time of year than a no show in October

 

[Gary Nylund]

When I say that, I mean I don't care if they played like a cup looking team or played like a last place team in late Oct / Nov. The way teams are playing, their record, none of it really matters for playoff results.

Compare that to 2 weeks before the playoffs. Teams are complete post deadline, they have had a season to master their system and learn their linemates, and they are supposed to represent the finished product for the playoff.

I am vastly more concerned with no shows at this time of year than a no show in October

Agreed. That's why losing to SJ pissed me off so much. Some people were saying oh we were tired, 3rd game in 4 nights. I say f*** that, look at the way FLA played last night. Also 3rd game in 4 nights, plus they played the night before, plus they have key players out, I can't say enough about how impressed I was with FLA last night and how badly I do NOT want to face them in the 1st round. And if we do face them and we miss 1st place by 1 point, I'll think back to that game we lost to SJ once again ...

 

[IPS]

What does last night really say about the potential Florida matchup?

 

[Gary Nylund]

What does last night really say about the potential Florida matchup?

We're in for a very tough fight and we better be at our best is my first thought.

 

[ToneDog]

Let's see if TB can beat Ottawa tonight. If they do, the game we have against them will be huge and will probably decide it.

That would be a great game between two hot teams. A Leafs win would give them a sweep of the season series and with TB playing so well it would be very impressive.

Loser most likely ends up with Florida in round #1.

What does last night really say about the potential Florida matchup?

Stollie needs to outplay Bob for Leafs to win the series IMO. The top two lines most likely cancel each other out and odds are their bottom 6 and special teams will be better than ours in the series. Tanev will be huge as he was for Dallas last year. Not sure if that will be enough if the core 4 are not willing to play outside their comfort zone.

 

[Mess]

This is misleading as Knies and matthews missed quite a bit of time

Let’s see since Feb 1st

McMann (67 games) -- Tavares (68 games) -- Nylander (75 games) = 210 man games

Knies (71 games) -- Matthews (60 games) - Marner ( 74 games) = 205 games played

Differential 5 man games played.

 

[notbias]

Goal scoring. .

Bobby McMann (20 goals) -- Tavares (36 goals) -- Nylander (42 goals) = 98 goals
vs
Matthew Knies (26 goals) -- Matthews (29 goals) -- Marner (24 goals) = 73 goals

Differential = 25 goals .

Leafs are going to need the Matthews line to start contributing more NOW and come playoff time as the Tavares line will need help, as they continue to carry the team forward in WINS.

A good example of someone having no idea what they are talking about...

How are you going to use their raw totals and then present them as a line? They barely played together this year.

Line 1 scores 3.49 goals per 60
Line 2 scores 4.12 goals per 60

Line 2 is scoring well above their expected stats, the lines are more similar here and will likely be more similar in actual goals/60 as the season goes on.

Thier defensive stats, line 1 is slightly better in the expected stats but worse in the actual goals.

 

[Fogelhund]

What does last night really say about the potential Florida matchup?

That we are in a better position to have home ice, than we were before the game.

Otherwise, not much.. we knew they were a good team before, and we still know that. We can win against them, we can lose against them.

 

[IPS]

That we are in a better position to have home ice, than we were before the game.

Otherwise, not much.. we knew they were a good team before, and we still know that. We can win against them, we can lose against them.

Also Florida's depleted lineup kind of takes away from it a bit too.

 

[Fogelhund]

Also Florida's depleted lineup kind of takes away from it a bit too.

I wouldn't say so really. Like I said, we already knew they were a good team, so playing them twice doesn't really say anything further, no matter who is in the lineup, or not. Winning a regular season game, or two, isn't a predictor of the playoffs anyway, so even if they were both full lineups, I wouldn't read anything into it.

All that occurred is we got further to home ice advantage... that's it.

 

[Evilhomer]

That we are in a better position to have home ice, than we were before the game.

Otherwise, not much.. we knew they were a good team before, and we still know that. We can win against them, we can lose against them.

100% agree. The game moved the Leafs closer to first in the division. That's about it. Last night's game doesn't change the quality of either team.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

What does last night really say about the potential Florida matchup?

It says Bob played out of his mind in the first period and we still beat them.

It says that Florida can count on more PP in the playoffs given that last night there was no way we should have been given only 1 PP.

It also said that our top 6 is better than their top 6, even if Tzachuk and Barkov were playing.

Florida couldn't have played a more thorough defensive, obstruction-filled game and yet they still lost.

Come on people, can we at least enjoy this f***ing win without the constant pumping of Florida's tires? They're good, but so are we, and right now we're in first in the division and deservedly so.

 

[123offtheglass]

Based on what?

I'm not sure, whatever algorithim moneypuck uses; there's a link below I've attached.

Curious, why is Tampa more likely to make rnd 2, 3, final and win the cup than Toronto?
Wondering how that is calculated?

I found that funny too, it's like they built in the Leafs curse factor.

They provide a link: "Read more about how these odds are calculated" At a glance, I'm not sure.