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Speculation: Atlantic Division Predictions

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Havoc said:
Tampa
Leafs
Panthers
Bruins (Linus Ullmark is more of a ? than our goaltending situation but for some reason Bruins always given a free pass?)
Senators (these guys play hard don't sleep on them)
Scabs
Wings
Sabres


Question marks: Without getting into a what's easier debate, I am giving Campbell a clean slate to build his own case if he can perform back in Atlantic life. I'm not rewarding him with blind faith but also not going to condone him and say he won't perform well. Season starts next week so don't need to speculate any more. The answers are coming. For some perspective why this question mark would exist, consider the Islanders were on a 13-24 downward spiral into the lottery before covid came and saved them. Remove covid and they miss the playoffs 19/20 and perhaps 20/21, nobody knows. Nobody can prove things will be harder, nobody can prove it'll be easier or the same.....it's simply just a question mark that will now get answered.

If goaltending checks out Leafs will sleep through the regular season again. If it doesn't, I still see them more or less having an easy time in the regular season since the D and forwards are pretty stacked (as in finish no where lower than 3rd in division), but playoff success odds will decrease significantly.
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This is pretty much bang on. Regular season is a given with this team. I'm more harsh than you on Campbell though I don't believe he's the guy. North was to easy for him then he choked game 5-7. Very sloppy goaltending lots of flopping around. We will need Mrazek to prove he's a playoff performer otherwise another first round or maybe second round exit is coming.
 
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deprw said:
I don't understand how people can downplay our goalies and at the same time not mention Panthers goalie situation. Bobrovsky have been horrible and Knight is still rookie, that can be real problem if both drop the ball at same time. There is also upside, but it's still big question mark. If we'd have lost our number 1 goalie on same situation people would jump all over the place.
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Leafs were so good last season combined with the opponents being so weak that they'd have won the division without a true no.1 There was maybe 1 game Campbell stole for us otherwise he's a very small factor in our regular season success. His numbers more reflect how good we were compared to the opposition.

Leafs also made a drasticcccccc jump in their defensive stats. Drastic is an understatement. This supports both how good they were as well as how easy the opponents were (the jump is too high for it to only be how good they were ...the extra spike was from easier games).

Probability wise, Campbell is a product of our stacked team + easy opponents. As of this moment, again probability wise, remains closer to his career backup form rather than a true no.1.

Very easy to understand why people downplay our goaltending. You don't have to agree with something in order to understand it.

I'm starting to warm up to Mrazek though. I think he can easily steal the job from Campbell at some point in the season and make a name for himself here.
 
A compilation of stats models and predictions.

upload_2021-10-9_7-38-38.png
 
Ashdown2 said:
yeah 80 points for buffalo is insane ,
ill be surprised if they get 60
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Unless they trade Eichel soon, and bring in some bodies to play now, their team on paper is historically bad.

It wouldn’t shock me, if the quality AHL teams would play them close.
@BuffaloSabres
Today's projected lineup:
Skinner - Mittelstadt - Hinostroza
Asplund - Thompson - Peterka
Jonsson-Fjallby - Cozens - Ruotsalainen
Girgensons - Eakin - Okposo
Butcher - Jokiharju
Bryson - Miller
Hagg - Pysyk
Anderson
Tokarski

Dahlin is missing, but pretty close to their opening night lineup.
 
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Leafs - dominate regular season
Panthers - they are for real
Tampa - Cup hangover- lost entire line
Bruins- on the way down
Senators - Cinderella fellas
Habs - Too many important pieces ill or gone
Sabres - sad
Wings - I think Yzerman tanks this year.
 
DraftSchmaft said:
Leafs were so good last season combined with the opponents being so weak that they'd have won the division without a true no.1 There was maybe 1 game Campbell stole for us otherwise he's a very small factor in our regular season success. His numbers more reflect how good we were compared to the opposition.

Leafs also made a drasticcccccc jump in their defensive stats. Drastic is an understatement. This supports both how good they were as well as how easy the opponents were (the jump is too high for it to only be how good they were ...the extra spike was from easier games).

Probability wise, Campbell is a product of our stacked team + easy opponents. As of this moment, again probability wise, remains closer to his career backup form rather than a true no.1.

Very easy to understand why people downplay our goaltending. You don't have to agree with something in order to understand it.

I'm starting to warm up to Mrazek though. I think he can easily steal the job from Campbell at some point in the season and make a name for himself here.
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this is only somewhat true though. While the North wasn’t the best division based on team quality at the top, it also wasn’t the worst and didn’t really have any truly bad teams either. Also there was no shortage of firepower in the division. I’d even say it’s arguable it was the best offensive division. So posting strong defensive numbers is still full marks imo
 
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Tampa-Lost 3rd line but last year finished high without the stud playing regular season so they win division again.

Florida- The big movers this year with a good all around balance.

Boston-I want to lower them because of goalies but their big solid D,dedication to the 200 ft game and solid work ethic and of course the big 3 up front keep them going.

Toronto-Not sold at all on goalies,say what you want about Freddy in the playoffs during the regular seasons he stole many wins for us and these 2 won't.Defense still very iffy with even less experience now and after the big 4 up front plenty of ifs.Any bad injuries to the 4 could take away playoff chances.
Should get in by 3rd spot or wild card but either way I have very little hope they get out of the first round again.
I want to have more faith but can't see anything but another wasted season.
Only good thing this year will be bye bye Dubas and his coaching group.

Montreal-miracle season long over,back to sucking.

Ottawa- rising slowly,will be a good team in another year or 2.

Detroit-They blow.

Buffalo-Without Eichel they probably would not even finish top team in the AHL.
 
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EGL22 said:
Tampa-Lost 3rd line but last year finished high without the stud playing regular season so they win division again.

Florida- The big movers this year with a good all around balance.

Boston-I want to lower them because of goalies but their big solid D,dedication to the 200 ft game and solid work ethic and of course the big 3 up front keep them going.

Toronto-Not sold at all on goalies,say what you want about Freddy in the playoffs during the regular seasons he stole many wins for us and these 2 won't.Defense still very iffy with even less experience now and after the big 4 up front plenty of ifs.Any bad injuries to the 4 could take away playoff chances.
Should get in by 3rd spot or wild card but either way I have very little hope they get out of the first round again.
I want to have more faith but can't see anything but another wasted season.
Only good thing this year will be bye bye Dubas and his coaching group.

Montreal-miracle season long over,back to sucking.

Ottawa- rising slowly,will be a good team in another year or 2.

Detroit-They blow.

Buffalo-Without Eichel they probably would not even finish top team in the AHL.
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Which of Andersens 13 wins were stolen?
 
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EGL22 said:
Boston-I want to lower them because of goalies but their big solid D,dedication to the 200 ft game and solid work ethic and of course the big 3 up front keep them going..
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Apparently Rask will be back in January, but in the meantime the league might be sleeping a little on youngster Jeremy Swayman for the Bruins in net. This kid has some good skills and went 7-3-0 in his 10 games last year in Boston with a 1.50 GAA & .945 sv% with 2 shutouts after a very good career in the NCAA.

This kid has a future Connor Hellebuyck type of feel to me.

High-end goalie prospect Spencer Knight only 20 years old is certainly going to get plenty of opportunity manning the pipes for the Florida Panthers this year, to see what they have here.

Both young goalies in Leafs div might be in the Calder discussion this year but the results are somewhat unknown as they're still relatively untested, and with goalies there are always question marks. However I wish our Leafs were grooming a potential future #1 goalie much like our rivals are.

Goaltending between Boston, Toronto and Florida might decide spots 2-4 in the Atlantic this year. but I'm with you on putting Boston at the front of this group for now.
 
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