Speculation: Atlantic Division Predictions

[PromisedLand]

I would guess:

1) Tampa
2) Florida
3) *

* close fight b/w boston/toronto/ottawa outside shot to montreal

then wildcard

teams in * and metro teams where I guess metro to finish as follows:

1) Canes
2) Isles
3) Pens/Caps

wildcard fight pens/caps/philly/rangers/devils

Why I don't have Leafs in the first two places? Our goalies are are not someone I am confident in...

Not sure if anyone watched Panthers but they have completely changed the way they play under Q and ofcourse tampa is tampa

 

[zeke]

I just realized that it sure looks like the SUPER-DEEP Florida Panthers sure seem to be lining up to start the season with Joe Thornton as their #3C.

The same Joe Thornton that was on the leafs' 4th line W to end the year last year, and would have likely been out of the lineup entirely if we were healthy.

Funny.

 

[notDatsyuk]

the league needs to fix this crap. There’s no way Montreal (or anyone else) should get such an advantage

Considering availability of the multi-use venues and a compressed 82 game schedule, I think they do an impressive job.

Most teams are within one or two games on the +/- sides.

(Oops - I forgot that +/- is a bad stat.)

 

[Blowfish]

I'd say all of TB Bos MTL would be far more screwed by a more injury to any of their #1C, #1D, or #1G than the Leafs would be.

Not so sure about this claim...You could be right about TB and MTL however Boston has a Studnicka, Steen, Frederik and Foligno ready to step in if need be. The 2nd line Hall Coyle Smith were pretty darn good the other night.

 

[notbias]

Not so sure about this claim...You could be right about TB and MTL however Boston has a Studnicka, Steen, Frederik and Foligno ready to step in if need be. The 2nd line Hall Coyle Smith were pretty darn good the other night.

If you're including wingers who can play center.

Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Kerfoot, Kampf, Spezza, Brooks, Semeynov, Amadio.

That looks better than Boston's C depth to me.

I really think we have the deepest forwards in the league right now.

 

[zeke]

Not so sure about this claim...You could be right about TB and MTL however Boston has a Studnicka, Steen, Frederik and Foligno ready to step in if need be. The 2nd line Hall Coyle Smith were pretty darn good the other night.

Ehhh.....I don't think good but not great AHLers like studnicka Steen and frederic are capable of filling in for Bergeron, myself.

Let's see if any of them can prove themselves as even a 4th line NHLer first, no?

 

[WinnieThePooh]

Not so sure about this claim...You could be right about TB and MTL however Boston has a Studnicka, Steen, Frederik and Foligno ready to step in if need be. The 2nd line Hall Coyle Smith were pretty darn good the other night.

I would guess:

1) Tampa
2) Florida
3) *

* close fight b/w boston/toronto/ottawa outside shot to montreal

I'm sorry but you have Ottawa in the same bracket as Toronto & Boston?You must have a lot of faith in Matt Murray.

My guess for the East playoffs:

IN:

1. Tampa
2. Toronto
   
3. NYI
4. NYR
5. Boston
6. Florida - WC
   
7. Carolina
8. Philly - WC

Tampa / Florida
Toronto / Boston

NYI / Philly
NYR / Carolina

Toronto / Florida
NYI / NYR

Toronto / NYI

 

[zeke]

Dom at theathletic.com's projections:

 

[Ashdown2]

Dom at theathletic.com's projections:

i think many are getting the metro completely wrong. phily and NYR to fight for second there. pitts and wash to drop off quite a bit.

i dont see mnny in the top 3 either ... no way they are better than the jets
and dont get me started on this seattle craze ...

 

[Fogelhund]

i think many are getting the metro completely wrong. phily and NYR to fight for second there. pitts and wash to drop off quite a bit.

i dont see mnny in the top 3 either ... no way they are better than the jets
and dont get me started on this seattle craze ...

Philly is hard to handicap. Hart was terrible last year, so whether he can rebound is the question. Adding Risto to their D, didn't really help their D quality, and I'm not sure how much Ellis will help the team defensively overall. If the goaltending struggles at all, this team could be very bad. Then again, Hart is quality, and you are right...

 

[deprw]

I don't understand how people can downplay our goalies and at the same time not mention Panthers goalie situation. Bobrovsky have been horrible and Knight is still rookie, that can be real problem if both drop the ball at same time. There is also upside, but it's still big question mark. If we'd have lost our number 1 goalie on same situation people would jump all over the place.

 

[WinnieThePooh]

Dom at theathletic.com's projections:

View attachment 468873

I hope Washington's playoff hopes comes down to the last game of the season, and the Leafs are facing the team they are equal with.

Then Toronto goes on to completely blow it and Washington misses despite having more points than many playoff teams.

The night ends with all of us feeling that sweet taste of revenge for the Blue Jays.

 

[Havoc]

Tampa
Leafs
Panthers
Bruins (Linus Ullmark is more of a ? than our goaltending situation but for some reason Bruins always given a free pass?)
Senators (these guys play hard don't sleep on them)
Scabs
Wings
Sabres


Question marks: Without getting into a what's easier debate, I am giving Campbell a clean slate to build his own case if he can perform back in Atlantic life. I'm not rewarding him with blind faith but also not going to condone him and say he won't perform well. Season starts next week so don't need to speculate any more. The answers are coming. For some perspective why this question mark would exist, consider the Islanders were on a 13-24 downward spiral into the lottery before covid came and saved them. Remove covid and they miss the playoffs 19/20 and perhaps 20/21, nobody knows. Nobody can prove things will be harder, nobody can prove it'll be easier or the same.....it's simply just a question mark that will now get answered.

If goaltending checks out Leafs will sleep through the regular season again. If it doesn't, I still see them more or less having an easy time in the regular season since the D and forwards are pretty stacked (as in finish no where lower than 3rd in division), but playoff success odds will decrease significantly.

 

[SprDaVE]

i think many are getting the metro completely wrong. phily and NYR to fight for second there. pitts and wash to drop off quite a bit.

i dont see mnny in the top 3 either ... no way they are better than the jets
and dont get me started on this seattle craze ...

That isn't an opinionated standings prediction, it's a statistical projection.

In his article that explains his model about the Leafs being high, he goes on to say:

"I am personally sick of the undeserved optimism. The model is child-like in its unrelenting prediction that things will get better for this team. I am instead broken and defeated."

"There’s no coefficient for being cursed"

He knows...

 

[zeke]

Team by Team comps using Dom's GSVA (theathletic.com):

These are not actual lines just best to worst.

TB

 

[zeke]

BOS

 

[zeke]

FLA

 

[Twine Tickler]

1. Toronto
2. Tampa Bay
3. Florida
4. Boston
5. Ottawa
6. Montreal
7. Buffalo

 

[Twine Tickler]

Linus Ullmark is more of a ? than our goaltending situation but for some reason Bruins always given a free pass

Lol I know I really don't understand this. Was listening to chicklets this week and it was legit cringe worthy listening to them stroke off Boston as if Swayman and Ullmark are no where a question mark, yet Campbell and Mrazek are....? Am I missing something?

And I just don't understand how our goaltending is more of a question mark this year vs. last year. Freddy was f***ing horrendous for us last year and he played 43% of the games. If anything we have improved in this aspect. Maybe that's just me being a homer, but I really think people outside of the Leafs circle are giving way too much respect to Freddy's name vs. his actual play in the last 2 seasons. Far from the elite goalie he once played like for us.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Dom at theathletic.com's projections:

View attachment 468873

2nd and 7th in the Metro being separated by just 7 points makes a lot of sense.

Still think the Islanders end up closer to that group with one of the older rosters in the league.

Philly will likely be the worst of the group unless Hart bounces back huge and Risto decides to not be terrible.

 

[tbcwpg]

Leafs
Panthers
Lightning
Bruins
Habs
Sens
Wings
Sabres

 

[Twine Tickler]

understandably there is some hesitation to get excited about this group that has consistently let us down come playoff time. I really don't think we have gotten worse from last year TBH. Hyman is a loss, unquestionably. But if we are taking the Billy Bean approach we need to replace Hyman's 61.5 pt pace over an 82 game season. Which might I add was Zach's best statistical output. I think a collection of Kase, Bunting, and Ritchie will more than make up for that loss IMO. Our bottom 6 is vastly improved, and I expect Mrazek to be an improvement on what Andersen provided us the last 2 years.

This is by no means intended to be a slander on Zach and what he meant to our team. He is one of my favorite Leafs of all time. But ultimately he is replaceable. Very replaceable. So too with Freddy. Our core 4 forwards remain, and our core 4 D remain.

I really don't think there is reason to be skeptical of this team in all honesty. They've shown us they can compete in the regular season with the exception of 2019-20. Which was just an odd year for so many reasons. Statistically it presents itself more as an anomaly than a red flag TBH. It does identify that even the unthinkable can happen, but realistically this team can win in the regular season. That's not to say they won't miss the playoffs. But this team is better than FLA and BOS on paper. Whether or not they play up to that level is another thing. But these what if's are to some degree applicable to every team in the NHL. Not sure why prognosticators only ever seem to think the Leafs will not live up to their talent, yet this doesn't seem to be much of a discussion for FLA. What if FLA lays an egg? What if Spencer Knight has a Carter Hart year 2 and they resort to an enigmatic Bob? What if Bennett regresses to the Bennet we've known for the last 6 seasons? What if Bergy and Marchy start to decline now that they are 36 and 33 years old? What if Swayman and Ulmark are just good backups to 1B tendie's

My point is that there are question marks on every team if you look hard enough. But when looking at this team on paper, they are the 2nd best roster in the Atlantic IMO

My skepticism will be heightened in and around the post season. I think that is a more than fair skepticism to have that is very much unique to our team.

 

[notDatsyuk]

2nd and 7th in the Metro being separated by just 7 points makes a lot of sense.

Still think the Islanders end up closer to that group with one of the older rosters in the league.

Philly will likely be the worst of the group unless Hart bounces back huge and Risto decides to not be terrible.

I agree about the Islanders. I don't expect them to win the division, although they should be 2nd or 3rd. They are build for the playoffs, not so much the regular season.

But I think, considering that we won our last Cup with the oldest team ever (was true, think it still is), maybe we shouldn't be too age-critical.

 

[Menzinger]

 

[zeke]

So so many leafs homers.