Athletic rankings of 32 teams heading into the season

[KillerMillerTime]

From the surface, it's a decent projection. Look at it more in tiers, not as a straight ranking:

And it's based on analytics, so sure there are going to be some flaws in the model. I think it's reasonable to expect the Devils be ahead of the Rangers, considering how last season went and even looking at this pre-season. But 3v8 makes it sound more dramatic than it is. They are ranked in the same tier.

Is this the sane crew who projected Boston to get something like 120 points and stated they didn't believe it either? Funny how that went.

 

[2014nyr]

Devils ok in the positioning.. but Rangers ahead by that much? Really? Alrighty then.

i mean it's literally by 2 pts in the standings and has them both in same tier...it's basically splitting hairs at that point. besides, it's model based and thats just what the numbers spit out, not someone's opinion that's slighting anyone's team. might not be how i'd order things, but damn rangers ranking got people in here big mad.

way too many people up in their feelings about a meaningless list before a game has been played.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Betting sites tend to be best for everything, at least if they have good amounts of data on it, and consider it a priority.

These sites make their money by being accurate, and they make tons of money. There also is a proven track record of rather strong performance historically. The models betting sites use will go through thousands of iterations and extreme tweaking in order to gain the slightest edge.

Meanwhile, something like this analysis has no pressure to actually perform. The models Dom comes up with seem to mainly just consist of random stats that might or might not be effective, with no pressure to actually have the predictions perform. The goal is to look smart, not to be accurate.

It’s important to also keep in mind that they ideally want an even amount bet on each and this sometimes results in shifts.

 

[squashmaple]

Florida they have injuries and regular season Bob is not as good as playoff Bob so I'm not sure about the Panther

Amazing how that narrative changed. When he was here, it was God mode in the regular season, winning two Vezinas with average teams in front of him, then he'd vanish come the playoffs.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

i mean it's literally by 2 pts in the standings and has them both in same tier...it's basically splitting hairs at that point. besides, it's model based and thats just what the numbers spit out, not someone's opinion that's slighting anyone's team. might not be how i'd order things, but damn rangers ranking got people in here big mad.

way too many people up in their feelings about a meaningless list before a game has been played.

The model predicting perhaps the slowest team in the league at #3 is the problem. There are clearly aspects of the game that the model is overlooking, most notably team speed.

 

[DJJones]

The model predicting perhaps the slowest team in the league at #3 is the problem. There are clearly aspects of the game that the model is overlooking, most notably team speed.

Or they think goaltending and scoring is more important.

 

[Kingfan1967]

LA last year started the season with 2 goalies that are now out of the league, sure this years goalies aren't top tier (or even mid tier) but they have to be better than last year, the D is better, and the Foward group is better. But they're going to do worst , right.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Or they think goaltending and scoring is more important.

Rangers were 12th in goals last year and were held to 1 goal or less in 4 of their last 5 playoff games.

They aren't offensive juggernauts. They have a very good PP1 but are pretty mediocre outside of that. They had the lowest xG% among playoff teams...

 

[DJJones]

Rangers were 12th in goals last year and were held to 1 goal or less in 4 of their last 5 playoff games.

They aren't offensive juggernauts. They have a very good PP1 but are pretty mediocre outside of that. They had the lowest xG% among playoff teams...

That's my point though. If they valued analytics that much they'd have a different ranking

This is about wins which they are likely giving them a bunch of steals for PP and goaltending.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

That's my point though. If they valued analytics that much they'd have a different ranking

This is about wins which they are likely giving them a bunch of steals for PP and goaltending.

Yeah that's ambitious in an of itself (the PP winning games not the goaltending). They had a great PP% but they just don't draw enough PPs to make it that big of a factor.

 

[Thallis]

Rangers were 12th in goals last year and were held to 1 goal or less in 4 of their last 5 playoff games.

They aren't offensive juggernauts. They have a very good PP1 but are pretty mediocre outside of that. They had the lowest xG% among playoff teams...

By whose projection? Public xGF tended to underrate the Rangers' xGF all year because they are biased towards volume. Sportlogiq and ClearSight usual looked much more favorably on them

 

[scoopscj]

i mean it's literally by 2 pts in the standings and has them both in same tier...it's basically splitting hairs at that point. besides, it's model based and thats just what the numbers spit out, not someone's opinion that's slighting anyone's team. might not be how i'd order things, but damn rangers ranking got people in here big mad.

way too many people up in their feelings about a meaningless list before a game has been played.

I hear ya, but don't rob me of my hate. Let me HATE THEM!!!!

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Dom is idiotic this summer. An older and slower rangers team that got worse and has an unusable backup is ranked 5 spots ahead of team that got deeper and better and was better last year as well.

How did the Rangers get worse?

They aren’t an old team either. They are 11th oldest going into this season. That’s not that old. Middle of the pack. Believe it or not, you can’t continue to ice the youngest team in the league every year if you want to win a Stanley Cup. Not like they’re top 3-4 oldest. The only team that can afford to be young every year is Arizona, and that’s because they aren’t required to compete. Bettman will keep them afloat regardless.

 

[2014nyr]

The model predicting perhaps the slowest team in the league at #3 is the problem. There are clearly aspects of the game that the model is overlooking, most notably team speed.

i mean slowest team in the league is pretty wild hyperbole. they certainly aren't the fastest in the league and they don't have any guys that have jump off the screen speed, but they're certainly not the slowest. playing slow and being slow are very different things, and after the deadline last year they played extremely slow. team speed can look extremely different if a team plays fast and gets pucks to players who are on the move. where they wind up this year i have no clue, but i certainly have no trouble seeing them play to that ranking nor do i have any trouble seeing them wind up significantly below it. look who just won the cup and who they beat for it or the team that just had the best regular season ever. all teams who certainly would not be highlighted for speed, but they played fast enough as a group to beat everyone else.

I hear ya, but don't rob me of my hate. Let me HATE THEM!!!!

i can respect that, touche

 

[HBK27]

Or they think goaltending and scoring is more important.

Or the model was busted...

 

[SladeWilson23]

One thing that does concern me as a Devils fan is the fact I feel our defense got worse. Losing Severson and not replacing him will hurt imo.

 

[Golden_Jet]

How did the Rangers get worse?

They aren’t an old team either. They are 11th oldest going into this season. That’s not that old. Middle of the pack. Believe it or not, you can’t continue to ice the youngest team in the league every year if you want to win a Stanley Cup. Not like they’re top 3-4 oldest. The only team that can afford to be young every year is Arizona, and that’s because they aren’t required to compete. Bettman will keep them afloat regardless.

How did the NYR improve to third?
Or was that from another prediction

 

[SladeWilson23]

Or the model was busted...

Wait, he has the Devils at 1? Nice!

 

[Cup or Bust]

Like Edmonton just hasn't gotten the job done but they always look good on paper,

I disagree, the Oilers have rarely looked good on paper. This might actually be the first season the Oilers ever looked good on paper going into a season since McDavid was drafted and they still will likely need an addition before the playoffs to have a roster strong enough to compete for the Cup.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So his model was messed up. That explains it.

Kinda funny how they did a whole writeup with the Devils at 8 with all this nonsense justification only to be wrong.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

So his model was messed up. That explains it.

Kinda funny how they did a whole writeup with the Devils at 8 with all this nonsense justification only to be wrong.

yes, you can now relax, this great injustice has been rectified.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

yes, you can now relax, this great injustice has been rectified.

I mean, I haven't posted in this thread in quite some time, but it's nice to see an obvious mistake get fixed.

 

[HBK27]

One thing that does concern me as a Devils fan is the fact I feel our defense got worse. Losing Severson and not replacing him will hurt imo.

Eh...short term loss for a long-term gain.

I really like Severson and in an ideal world would've loved to had him stick around for a few more seasons while the team that was not very good for most of his Devils career finally had some success. But he deserved to land a rich 8-year deal and I'm glad it wasn't with NJ. Locking up a 29-year old 2nd pairing RHD for 8 years at $6.25M doesn't align at all with NJ's contention window and would've hurt them in a few seasons.

Devils already have Hamilton and Marino locked up for the next 4 seasons, with Nemec just about ready to go. The only thing that made sense this offseason was to replace Severson (who played 3rd pairing last season) with a vet on an expiring deal, which is exactly what NJ did in acquiring Miller. Problem is that he hasn't looked good at all this preseason, though hopefully is just a rough adjustment to a new system.

I don't think there's any chance of Smith or Miller coming close to Severson's production last season, though I think there's a very real chance that Nemec can get there by the end of the season and maybe surpass it. Could be a situation similar to Colin White in 2000, where he played most of the season in the AHL (52 games) before coming up late and being a top 6 defenseman throughout a long playoff run (23 games).

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How did the NYR improve to third?
Or was that from another prediction

Did you read the article?

The guy projects us to have less regular season points than last season.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Did you read the article?

The guy projects us to have less regular season points than last season.

Paywall
Ya less than 107 makes sense.