Athletic rankings of 32 teams heading into the season

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Oh btw just looked it up. Rangers outscored the Devils 5v5 in the series.

Nothing says dominating 5v5 like being outscored 5v5.

Shesterkin.

 

[PainForShane]

Haha yes let's ignore the first 2 games where you got dominated. The Devils had no answer for Kreider on the PP. Last I checked the PK is a pretty important part of winning games. Devils also got out shot 3 of the last 5 games and 4 of 7 for the series. Not really seeing where you skated them into the ground. Schmid played out of his mind and the Rangers couldn't beat him. He sure cooled off in the next series though......oof.

I'm sorry what? Your team lost bro. So did 31 other teams, including the Devils.

Get over it. Better luck this season

 

[Esq]

Rangers at 3 is a joke

 

[VainGretzky]

I don't see Montreal finishing 31oa. Id like to see it but I think more like 24-28, especially if they start healthy

I would say maybe even 20-22

 

[BelovedIsles]

I’m not quite sold in NJD. Lethal offense, a fast team in a league predicated on speed, their D and G leave me uninspired (especially D). Don’t get me wrong, they are a good-very good team, not convinced they are top 3 in the league.

On the other hand, the Avs are underrated. If they stay healthy they are a Cup threat. I like the depth they added and they now have a 2C.

 

[kilowatt]

I wonder why people are still paying for that nonsens.

Check to see if your public library provides access to the New York Times. If so, it includes an Athletic subscription.

Libraries are so awesome.

 

[Kurtosis]

I always love the over the top reactions to preseason predictions. If it bothers you that much put your money up. Otherwise just recognize it for what it is, a way to drive discussion.

 

[TBF1972]

Really hard to justify that line when you barely won a 7 game series, but hey, whatever floats your boat.

Want to know which team actually skated a team into the ground, the Canes over the Devils. Wasn’t even a series.

oh i see. you are still struggling grasping content.

 

[ijuka]

Oh boy. Again this model stuff. I remember last year, the models loved Capitals and Canucks. Surprise surprise, both ended up doing terribly.

Want good season predictions? Look at sportsbook odds. No need to pay The Athletic a penny for inferior predictions.

For example, Pinnacle's predicted top 6 for eastern conference is:

1. Carolina Hurricanes
2. Toronto Maple Leafs
3. New Jersey Devils
4. Boston Bruins
5. Tampa Bay Lightning
6. New York Rangers

Completely different from The Athletic's, and makes more sense to me. Keep in mind that The Athletic's goal is to get exposure and clicks, while Pinnacle's purpose is to be correct(the more accurate their predictions, the more money they make).


Dom's model has been already shown to perform terribly in practice, so I'm not sure why he keeps forcing it as if it has any value. It's absolute garbage. The guy tried posting betting tips with it, and it performed like trash, so he stopped doing so. It's a completely dead model.

 

[hangman005]

Rangers are the baffling at 3, I could understand the Devils there more than the Rangers.

That said I'm willing to make some more deals this year, Dallas did you want to meet in the conference finals again this year? Canes if we make the cup finals again are you going to stand us up again or should I ask the devils.

 

[NyQuil]

The difference between these teams is literally less than two points in the projection. They're all separated by less than one win during the season.

Most of the outrage in here seems to be based on people just reading OP's list because they didn't/can't read the article. Basically, Dom's model thinks there are a handful of teams that are really, really close near the top of the league.

Most of the outrage is with a model that assigns too much weighting to less relevant aspects of a team’s competitiveness over the next three seasons.

 

[danyhabsfan]

I dont think we'll finish 31st but I would like that.
We were at 500 before the injuries around Christmas (15-15-3)

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Oh boy. Again this model stuff. I remember last year, the models loved Capitals and Canucks. Surprise surprise, both ended up doing terribly.

Want good season predictions? Look at sportsbook odds. No need to pay The Athletic a penny for inferior predictions.

For example, Pinnacle's predicted top 6 for eastern conference is:

1. Carolina Hurricanes
2. Toronto Maple Leafs
3. New Jersey Devils
4. Boston Bruins
5. Tampa Bay Lightning
6. New York Rangers

Completely different from The Athletic's, and makes more sense to me. Keep in mind that The Athletic's goal is to get exposure and clicks, while Pinnacle's purpose is to be correct(the more accurate their predictions, the more money they make).


Dom's model has been already shown to perform terribly in practice, so I'm not sure why he keeps forcing it as if it has any value. It's absolute garbage. The guy tried posting betting tips with it, and it performed like trash, so he stopped doing so. It's a completely dead model.

I use betting sites during the presidential election when I don't want to trust CNN or Fox news polls

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Leafs are overrated.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

Rangers are the baffling at 3, I could understand the Devils there more than the Rangers.

That said I'm willing to make some more deals this year, Dallas did you want to meet in the conference finals again this year? Canes if we make the cup finals again are you going to stand us up again or should I ask the devils.

Thank you @hangman005. We'll do our best this year. The series we had against Florida I will remember 20 years from now. It was the most bizarre sweep I've seen. Hope for better result next time.

 

[scoopscj]

Devils ok in the positioning.. but Rangers ahead by that much? Really? Alrighty then.

 

[MavisGoldberg]

Rangers are too high IMO. We'll see.

 

[mphmiles]

Most of the outrage is with a model that assigns too much weighting to less relevant aspects of a team’s competitiveness over the next three seasons.

like what

 

[NyQuil]

like what

Well, for example, the actual current roster is worth 35% while prospects who aren't in the NHL yet are worth 25% for the next 3 years.

 

[MavisGoldberg]

NHL season previews 2023-24: Counting down the teams from worst to first

The Athletic’s 2023-24 edition of the team season previews, a deep dive into what to expect from each team.

theathletic.com

Definitely a few headscratchers in this one

32. Sharks
31. Habs
30. Hawks
29. Ducks
28. Flyers
27. Jackets
26. Blues
25. Caps
24. Coyotes
23. Wings
22. Sabres
21. Preds
20. Kraken
19. Islanders
18. Canucks
17. Senators
16. Kings
15. Lightning
14. Jets
13. Flames
12. Pens
11. Wild
10. Panthers
9. Bruins
8. Devils
7. Knights
6. Avs
5. Leafs
4. Stars
3. Rangers
2. Oilers
1. Canes

BTW I totally agree with the Flames. I have them a little higher. Lost what 26 1 goal games and Huberdeau won't get close to 58 points again. That's a big-time rebound team.

 

[BHD]

The Rangers as a “Cup contender” - especially at #3 - stands out to me. I haven’t read the series, but I assume they are expecting the goaltending to cover a more aggressive team.

 

[mphmiles]

Well, for example, the actual current roster is worth 35% while prospects who aren't in the NHL yet are worth 25% for the next 3 years.

This is literally just a projection for this season. Prospects and multiple years down the line have nothing to do with it.

 

[NyQuil]

This is literally just a projection for this season. Prospects and multiple years down the line have nothing to do with it.

Ah, you're right, my mistake.

I was confusing it with the ESPN ranking thread.

ESPN future power rankings for all 32 teams

ESPN rated all 32 teams. These rankings consider how teams are set up for success this season as well as the next three seasons. We had a panel of writers and editors rate each team in four categories -- roster (with an emphasis on players 26 and under); prospects; cap situation and contracts...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[KingAlfie11]

From the surface, it's a decent projection. Look at it more in tiers, not as a straight ranking:

And it's based on analytics, so sure there are going to be some flaws in the model. I think it's reasonable to expect the Devils be ahead of the Rangers, considering how last season went and even looking at this pre-season. But 3v8 makes it sound more dramatic than it is. They are ranked in the same tier.

Seattle is too low, I have them 2nd in the Pacific
Keep an eye on Vancouver they have a very good tandem of Demko and DeSmith and I think they will surprise some people.
Kings and the Sabres have good players but I'm not sure about their goaltenders
If Ottawa don't have Norris and Pinto for long period of time it's gonna hurt their chances big time!
Boston will fight for a playoff spot, you can't lose your two best centers and not impact you.
Florida they have injuries and regular season Bob is not as good as playoff Bob so I'm not sure about the Panther
And Tampa is without Vasy for 2months that's gonna hurt them.

 

[ijuka]

I use betting sites during the presidential election when I don't want to trust CNN or Fox news polls

Betting sites tend to be best for everything, at least if they have good amounts of data on it, and consider it a priority.

These sites make their money by being accurate, and they make tons of money. There also is a proven track record of rather strong performance historically. The models betting sites use will go through thousands of iterations and extreme tweaking in order to gain the slightest edge.

Meanwhile, something like this analysis has no pressure to actually perform. The models Dom comes up with seem to mainly just consist of random stats that might or might not be effective, with no pressure to actually have the predictions perform. The goal is to look smart, not to be accurate.