ATD Chat Thread XX

[VanIslander]

Indeed, context matters.

Stats help illuminate - not replace - plays we see. The longer the lens, the more revelant the stat.

 

[tinyzombies]

I think it depends on what your objective is - are you trying to compile data, or make an argument?

If you're just trying to compile data, then the numbers that are presented are (more or less) accurate. It's no different than saying that Jamie Benn won an Art Ross, but Steve Yzerman didn't. It's a factual summary of what actually happened.

If you're trying to make an argument (or a greatest players list) - yes, for sure, you need to consider the context. (That's when you get into comments like "Yzerman would have won at least 1 Art Ross if not for Gretzky/Lemieux, and Benn peaked during an unusually weak season").

Factual summaries can (and should) support a position, but they're never a position on their own.

I’d also love to see adjustments for systems played vis-a-vis possible wins. For example: if Bergeron’s leash had lengthened he would have scored more but lost more. There should be an offensive score not based entirely on points tho, because if he can score out of that role, he deserves a higher offensive rating than he usually gets credit for. And same for an offensive guy who doesn’t defend - if that doesn’t lead to wins he should be penalized. Etc. for dmen who play zone for instance, they might have to play zone because that’s all they can do or maybe like Shea Weber it’s because they are dominant in a zone - even tho they give up medium danger stuff in volume. There’s no detail to stats.

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

Personal FYI-

Have been away-from-board for a while due to the fact that a close family member has sustained [to use hockey parlance] a season-ending Lower Body Injury. Recovery IS expected... but I'll be serving in the role of primary care-giver-- and that will be my new occupation, until further notice.

Will miss the history project, and also (possibly) a future draft or two- but they'll have to be slid off the priority-list, for now.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Personal FYI-

Have been away-from-board for a while due to the fact that a close family member has sustained [to use hockey parlance] a season-ending Lower Body Injury. Recovery IS expected... but I'll be serving in the role of primary care-giver-- and that will be my new occupation, until further notice.

Will miss the history project, and also (possibly) a future draft or two- but they'll have to be slid off the priority-list, for now.

Family first. Hoping for the best for everyone good sir!

 

[BenchBrawl]

Personal FYI-

Have been away-from-board for a while due to the fact that a close family member has sustained [to use hockey parlance] a season-ending Lower Body Injury. Recovery IS expected... but I'll be serving in the role of primary care-giver-- and that will be my new occupation, until further notice.

Will miss the history project, and also (possibly) a future draft or two- but they'll have to be slid off the priority-list, for now.

Wishing your loved one the best recovery. Take care of yourselves and see you back when you're ready.

 

[VanIslander]

I was searching for a good testament to Potvin's skating (to counter a puzzling claim that Denis wasn't good at skating)...

And i came across this Bowman gem about Bourque:

Ray Bourque is the closest I've ever seen to I think the best I've ever seen, Doug Harvey. He played until he was 44. Bourque could do the same thing. He's never out of position. He conserves his energy. He's been a model player, he plays hard and he's never been on the carpet for anything.

 

[Habsfan18]

If we ever have an all-time tough motherf**ker draft, Shea is going 1st round. What a warrior. It's a damn shame he and Carey Price JUST fell short that year.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Talking hockey with uncles. Turns out one was neighbours with Bobby Baun in the Toronto area. And the other spent 3 months as an intern doctor for the Leafs in the early 70s. Stitched up Gilbert Perreault and became buddies with Johnny Bower.

Interesting the connections you bump in to.

 

[tinyzombies]

View attachment 928401

If we ever have an all-time tough motherf**ker draft, Shea is going 1st round. What a warrior. It's a damn shame he and Carey Price JUST fell short that year.

I wouldn't say JUST short. Tampa didn't take us seriously and still easily beat us. Edmundson and Chariot in the top 4, Petry playing with a broken hand, Shea you saw above, Price on one leg by the time the finals rolled around. Danault was Bergeronlike during that run, we collapsed and Price too care of literally everything, until he couldn't. The matchups were perfect for us, even tho they were much more talented teams. Leafs were soft and had a suspect defense and goaltending and we were big and mean in the middle, Winnipeg played zero team D, Vegas was slow and had Mr. Fleury and his usual playoff antics and we had some speed up front, But Tampa was just stacked and dominant in the middle at both ends of the rink. We couldn't even get to the net, and then Vasi with his overinflated equipment was waiting.

 

[tinyzombies]

Look who is now in the top 100:

 

[BenchBrawl]

I was searching for a good testament to Potvin's skating (to counter a puzzling claim that Denis wasn't good at skating)...

And i came across this Bowman gem about Bourque:

From watching his games, Potvin was an efficient skater. When you compare him to "similar" defensemen (Stevens, Chara, Robinson, Pronger, Weber), Potvin was a better skater than all of them.

 

[tinyzombies]

From watching his games, Potvin was an efficient skater. When you compare him to "similar" defensemen (Stevens, Chara, Robinson, Pronger, Weber), Potvin was a better skater than all of them.

I think not.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Found this while doing research on the goalie project

 

[Professor What]

I was roaming around the interwebs, and I came across a baseball history forum. They literally had over 2,000(!) players ranked. Can you imagine the players we'd be dealing with if we ranked 2,000 of them?

 

[BenchBrawl]

I was roaming around the interwebs, and I came across a baseball history forum. They literally had over 2,000(!) players ranked. Can you imagine the players we'd be dealing with if we ranked 2,000 of them?

Easy to imagine. In 2011, we had a 40 teams ATD, plus several minor league drafts, MLD, and beyond. Then you can add 14 years of hockey history to this, and you get a good picture of what it would look like.

Edit:

ATD2011 = 1000 players
MLD2011 = 350 players
AAA2011 = 250 players
AA2011 = 150 players

= 1750 players.

Add in the previously unknown old-timers, and the moderns/actives, and it more or less cancels out to 2000. And you get those type of players: The 2011 Double-A Draft (sign-up, roster, picks, everything)


The Martin Rucinskys, Sergei Samsonovs, Jason Blakes of the world. Not too shabby actually. Many household names still.

Edit2: Fixed number of players for AA2011, formatting confused me.

 

[VanIslander]

Easy to imagine. In 2011, we had a 40 teams ATD, plus several minor league drafts, MLD, and beyond. Then you can add 14 years of hockey history to this, and you get a good picture of what it would look like.

Edit:

ATD2011 = 1000 players
MLD2011 = 350 players
AAA2011 = 250 players
AA2011 = 72 players

= 1672 players.

Add in the previously unknown old-timers, and the moderns/actives, and it more or less cancels out to 2000. And you get those type of players: The 2011 Double-A Draft (sign-up, roster, picks, everything)


The Martin Rucinskys, Sergei Samsonovs, Jason Blakes of the world. Not too shabby actually. Many household names still.

I co-GM'd a team in AA2011, ... after 1600 picks in the ATD, MLD, AAA... (THIS NEAR THE END OF THE SIT-AT COMPUTER ERA, and dawn of "smart"phone era)

Our team had Czechoslovakian great 1970s coach Karel Gut with that nation's wingers Josef Augusta, Eduard Novak, Jan Klapac, Miroslav Vlach. Early era great defenseman Herbert Russell was captain, Toni Lydman, Petteri Nummelin and Kris Letang were also on the blueline. Alternate captains were center Jorgen Jonsson and left winger Randy Cunneyworth. 4th line wingers were modern role players Jeff Halpern and Tuomu Ruutu.

Hockey history used to take hours of our time at a computer, instead of minutes at a time on our now mobile devices.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I co-GM'd a team in AA2011, ... after 1600 picks in the ATD, MLD, AAA... (THIS NEAR THE END OF THE SIT-AT COMPUTER ERA, and dawn of "smart"phone era)

Our team had Czechoslovakian great 1970s coach Karel Gut with that nation's wingers Josef Augusta, Eduard Novak, Jan Klapac, Miroslav Vlach. Early era great defenseman Herbert Russell was captain, Toni Lydman, Petteri Nummelin and Kris Letang were also on the blueline. Alternate captains were center Jorgen Jonsson and left winger Randy Cunneyworth. 4th line wingers were modern role players Jeff Halpern and Tuomu Ruutu.

Hockey history used to take hours of our time at a computer, instead of minutes at a time on our now mobile devices.

I don't operate on Hfboards from my phone. I still use a computer.

Many predicted "the death of desktops" but I don't see it happening ever. It's just so convenient to use a mouse, keyboard, big screen, big chair, desk, etc.

I know many don't have them anymore though.

 

[VanIslander]

My last desktop was in '17, last laptop '21.

We have had one computer (with printer) in our office for years and everyone has been using it regularly because none of us has a computer at home (except one has a laptop for gaming, another a daughter's tablet).

Note: during ATDs & MLDs i come to the office late at night to use the computer. It is like when our middle school in 1982 had only one computer (no one had a home computer quite yet).

The golden age of home computing was the first decade of this century. Tons of detailed content on sites not yet dumbed-down 'simplified', 'streamlined' for smartphones, the vast majority of sites not yet monitized, so free content galore: newspapers, music streams, movie sites, etc. Discussion forums like HfBoards is a RELIC of that era. Many other similar sites on other subjects have gone by the wayside. So too this will pass. *sigh*

 

[BenchBrawl]

My last desktop was in '17, last laptop '21.

We have had one computer (with printer) in our office for years and everyone has been using it regularly because none of us has a computer at home (except one has a laptop for gaming, another a daughter's tablet).

Note: during ATDs & MLDs i come to the office late at night to use the computer. It is like when our middle school in 1982 had only one computer (no one had a home computer quite yet).

The golden age of home computing was the first decade of this century. Tons of detailed content on sites not yet dumbed-down 'simplified', 'streamlined' for smartphones, the vast majority of sites not yet monitized, so free content galore: newspapers, music streams, movie sites, etc. Discussion forums like HfBoards is a RELIC of that era. Many other similar sites on other subjects have gone by the wayside. So too this will pass. *sigh*

I agree smart phones ruined the online experience, but so did the masses. It was never going to stay as great as it was in the 2000s, when only nerds, open-minded weirdos, dreamers, jokers and geniuses were roaming the place.

As for a PC, you can buy a refurbished one for 200$ CAD on amazon, and find a screen for dirt cheap on marketplace. At least, in Canada.

 

[tinyzombies]

Isn’t the ATD underutilizing pace as a way to rate players? Bossy was the 4th fastest to 1000 pts, McDavid 5th fastest (and is he stays healthy can finish 2nd to Wayner).

 

[Johnny Engine]

Is the idea there that we should put more value on guys who hit the ground running than guys who had some growing pains?
Or are we just pumping up guys who had their primes in the 1980s?
I'd be interested in the rationale for the former if that's it.

 

[VanIslander]

I'm 9 out of 10 in picking in the HfBoards official pick'em NFL draft (double elimination), ... was wounded early by week 2's 26-23 wtf upset of juggernault Baltimore Ravens by the Vegas Raiders.

This weekend, week 11, i have Miami over those Raiders... hope Vegas doesn't upset again.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I was roaming around the interwebs, and I came across a baseball history forum. They literally had over 2,000(!) players ranked. Can you imagine the players we'd be dealing with if we ranked 2,000 of them?

Out of curiosity, how detailed were the discussions? Were they micro-analyzing who deserved to be ranked 1,437th vs 1,438th? Or did the level of participation drop off at a certain point?

Look who is now in the top 100:View attachment 929415

The "serious hockey analyst" in me tries not to get too worked up about this stuff.

But, thinking back to when I was a kid, going through my collection of cards on my bedroom floor, I can't help but be impressed by these (arbitrary and era-dependent milestones) - the 150 point season, the 40 point playoff run, the possibility of McDavid reaching 2,000 career points, etc.

I don't operate on Hfboards from my phone. I still use a computer.

Many predicted "the death of desktops" but I don't see it happening ever. It's just so convenient to use a mouse, keyboard, big screen, big chair, desk, etc.

I know many don't have them anymore though.

Same. My preference is to use a desktop computer whenever possible. I prefer the larger screen, and the physical keyboard.

I still miss the old Blackberry smart phones (due to the keyboard). My spelling is horrendous on my iPhone. It can be painstaking to compose an email to a client.

I'm not sure if there's any meaningful difference in security, but there are also certain activities I refuse to do on my cell phone (ie logging into my banking or credit cards, making big purchases, etc).

 

[Professor What]

Out of curiosity, how detailed were the discussions? Were they micro-analyzing who deserved to be ranked 1,437th vs 1,438th? Or did the level of participation drop off at a certain point?

I didn't explore enough to really know that. I just found that the rankings were there and spent a little bit of time looking at them. I should go back and look. I mean, I enjoy doing the rankings we do, but I can't imagine having the patience to go that far.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Isn’t the ATD underutilizing pace as a way to rate players? Bossy was the 4th fastest to 1000 pts, McDavid 5th fastest (and is he stays healthy can finish 2nd to Wayner).

I prefer early bloomers to late bloomers in general, but paces like "4th fastest to 1000 pts" are useless given the era variations.