ATD 2022 DRAFT THREAD I

[tinyzombies]

Just FYI - this shit isn't going to impact my analysis of a player at all.

'I'm not going to look at it' isn't really a valid opinion. They have shot location, zone entry/exit stats, zone starts, etc. now. These are facts, but you have to apply a knowledge of systems played, WOWY, etc., the stats don't mean as much in a vacuum. For elite players they are more indicative of the role the player played, as was necessary.

 

[The Macho King]

'I'm not going to look at it' isn't really a valid opinion.

And yet...

Find a way to show that it's either a) relevant to this exercise, b) accurate and measures what it attempts to measure, and c) uses something better than the notably inaccurate public data, and I'll listen.

Public analytics are not good.

 

[tinyzombies]

And yet...

Find a way to show that it's either a) relevant to this exercise, b) accurate and measures what it attempts to measure, and c) uses something better than the notably inaccurate public data, and I'll listen.

Public analytics are not good.

I don't agree, I look at these stats when I'm watching games and they are very revealing. I put together cheatsheets of both teams so I can get an overview of what the characteristics of a line are, etc. But again, you need to know what systems the team plays, the role, etc. Just because someone is rated low at something doesn't necessarily mean they are poor, it's not simply a quality rating, it's also sometimes a style rating that reveals the role a player has to play within a system, and the kind of help they are getting and the level of competition. This is the best I've seen yet, but I'd like him to add a control rating indicating system/role.

 

[The Macho King]

I don't agree, I look at these stats when I'm watching games and they are very revealing. I put together cheatsheets of both teams so I can get an overview of what the characteristics of a line are, etc. But again, you need to know what systems the team plays, the role, etc. Just because someone is rated low at something doesn't necessarily mean they are poor, it's not simply a quality rating, it's also sometimes a style rating that reveals the role a player has to play within a system, and the kind of help they are getting and the level of competition. This is the best I've seen yet, but I'd like him to add a control rating indicating system/role.

mmkay

 

[BenchBrawl]

This seems to be more true of ATD 1st unit players than anything else. There are plenty of centers available later on who didn't need a whole lot of the puck, but finding a 1st line-caliber center (and not merely someone playing on a 1st line) who can cater to a puck dominant wing is quite difficult. Bobby Hull is particularly difficult, as you ideally want a right-handed center, or at least somebody who was known for working well with his left wings. We ended up drafting Ted Kennedy for the job, and he seems like a good fit, but it's hard to think of any higher-rated centers who would really match well with Hull. Frank Nighbor, maybe? It's definitely ATD hard mode, though I think there are still a couple undrafteds who would also be viable in the role.

edit: we even considered reuniting Hull and Esposito due to their brief chemistry in Chicago, but I'm glad we didn't. Such a line in an ATD setting would be...imbalanced, to say the least.

Here are the (drafted) centers I would consider playing with him:

Béliveau (maybe, as Béliveau was the great adjuster)
Messier (maybe, as an experiment)
Esposito
Nighbor
Schmidt
Kennedy
Abel

That's pretty much it.

 

[Sturminator]

I would take the lesson from Reay here, and just have Hull anchor his own line and use your next forward picks to create two scoring lines. Hull as a "second liner" is beyond luxury casting.

Pretty much what we did with the Makarov pick, yeah.

For what it's worth, I think building a good team around Hull becomes easier as the draft gets smaller. It's tough enough at 18 teams; I don't even want to imagine what it's like in, say, a 40-team no-trade draft.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

This seems to be more true of ATD 1st unit players than anything else. There are plenty of centers available later on who didn't need a whole lot of the puck, but finding a 1st line-caliber center (and not merely someone playing on a 1st line) who can cater to a puck dominant wing is quite difficult. Bobby Hull is particularly difficult, as you ideally want a right-handed center, or at least somebody who was known for working well with his left wings. We ended up drafting Ted Kennedy for the job, and he seems like a good fit, but it's hard to think of any higher-rated centers who would really match well with Hull. Frank Nighbor, maybe? It's definitely ATD hard mode, though I think there are still a couple undrafteds who would also be viable in the role.

edit: we even considered reuniting Hull and Esposito due to their brief chemistry in Chicago, but I'm glad we didn't. Such a line in an ATD setting would be...imbalanced, to say the least.

I have to say that I was really hoping you guys would bite the bullet and do a Hull-Espo team. It would have been... Interesting at least

 

[BenchBrawl]

Hull-Espo worked well together. I watched a complete game last year and they clicked. Espo's ES numbers were solid in Chicago.

 

[tinyzombies]

Crosby's last elite season (2018-19), 100 points in 79 games AND elite defense:

His 2016-17 ratings are very different in their second Cup win year - very poor defensive numbers. But that was a function of the trading chances style they had - give up medium chances to counter.

 

[overpass]

Was the “only one puck” issue most prevalent in the Original Six NHL? Mikita/Hull is maybe the most famous case. I also think of Guyle Fielder failing to stick in Detroit because he needed the puck and so did Howe.

But then Hull was just fine playing with two skilled player in Winnipeg, where they played a European style passing game. The European style, especially the Soviets, emphasized passing more than the Original Six NHL, which was more about puck carrying and one-on-one battles. Was the “only one puck” issue a problem for the Soviets or other European teams of the 70s and 80s? Not that I’m aware, but others know more than me about this period. And as the NHL incorporated the European passing style to some degree in the 80s and 90s, did it become more possible to play highly skilled puck carriers together? Detroit played their top 2 forwards (both centres) on the same line sometimes and they paired well together. Mario and Jagr usually played apart but were very effective together for a half season in 96-97 and again in 00-01.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Hull-Espo worked well together. I watched a complete game last year and they clicked. Espo's ES numbers were solid in Chicago.

I know that Bobby Hull complained to the press (shocking I know) after Esposito was traded away.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I know that Bobby Hull complained to the press (shocking I know) after Esposito was traded away.

He said "I lost my right arm".

Remembering Phil Esposito

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Was the “only one puck” issue most prevalent in the Original Six NHL? Mikita/Hull is maybe the most famous case. I also think of Guyle Fielder failing to stick in Detroit because he needed the puck and so did Howe.

But then Hull was just fine playing with two skilled player in Winnipeg, where they played a European style passing game. The European style, especially the Soviets, emphasized passing more than the Original Six NHL, which was more about puck carrying and one-on-one battles. Was the “only one puck” issue a problem for the Soviets or other European teams of the 70s and 80s? Not that I’m aware, but others know more than me about this period. And as the NHL incorporated the European passing style to some degree in the 80s and 90s, did it become more possible to play highly skilled puck carriers together? Detroit played their top 2 forwards (both centres) on the same line sometimes and they paired well together. Mario and Jagr usually played apart but were very effective together for a half season in 96-97 and again in 00-01.

I can think of a couple of more recent guys who will be drafted in the not too distant future for whom the "only one puck" thing absolutely applied to

 

[tabness]

And yet...

Find a way to show that it's either a) relevant to this exercise, b) accurate and measures what it attempts to measure, and c) uses something better than the notably inaccurate public data, and I'll listen.

Public analytics are not good.

Why though? Yes a lot of things tracked have arena effects and so on, but I don't see the same dismissal to things like goals and points (and everything built on top of them like scoring placements/VsX). Goals/points probably more open to the argument that they don't fully measure what they're supposed to measure (try teasing the number out from linemates, team style, player role, etc).

 

[The Macho King]

Was the “only one puck” issue most prevalent in the Original Six NHL? Mikita/Hull is maybe the most famous case. I also think of Guyle Fielder failing to stick in Detroit because he needed the puck and so did Howe.

But then Hull was just fine playing with two skilled player in Winnipeg, where they played a European style passing game. The European style, especially the Soviets, emphasized passing more than the Original Six NHL, which was more about puck carrying and one-on-one battles. Was the “only one puck” issue a problem for the Soviets or other European teams of the 70s and 80s? Not that I’m aware, but others know more than me about this period. And as the NHL incorporated the European passing style to some degree in the 80s and 90s, did it become more possible to play highly skilled puck carriers together? Detroit played their top 2 forwards (both centres) on the same line sometimes and they paired well together. Mario and Jagr usually played apart but were very effective together for a half season in 96-97 and again in 00-01.

Nah definitely still a thing. Crosby - for example - has not gelled with a lot of the star wings they've brought in for him.

 

[tinyzombies]

Nah definitely still a thing. Crosby - for example - has not gelled with a lot of the star wings they've brought in for him.

They have to gel with HIM. He's going to get them the puck constantly, but he can finish too, which buys them space. They were playing run and gun before, so that takes a particular type of player, and now their system has changed, so that takes another type of player. That's probably why an older Iginla didn't work before.

That's not like Bobby Hull, who is going to go end-to-end every single time and everyone knows it. If he runs out of room, he winds up for a slapshot. And that's it. That's his entire game. If you are on his line, you play fetch and you get back and play D. A great player like Mikita, who can make plays, is wasted on a line like that. Hull isn't going to find dead space and get open.

That's why I think Lafleur was the better player skillwise, because nobody knew what he was going to do, he could skate and create lanes and set up teammates or he could shoot from far, or go one-on-one.

 

[The Macho King]

Why though? Yes a lot of things tracked have arena effects and so on, but I don't see the same dismissal to things like goals and points (and everything built on top of them like scoring placements/VsX). Goals/points probably more open to the argument that they don't fully measure what they're supposed to measure (try teasing the number out from linemates, team style, player role, etc).

All of those knocks you mention are debated here. It's why a guy like Geoffrion (or Denneny) go where they go despite a stat page that indicates they should go higher. We instinctively contextualize a lot of those raw numbers.

The "advanced stats crew"(tm) often does not perform that same contextualization. And the data itself is questionable because it's based off of inaccurate publicly available data.

But even more importantly - I come to this part of the forums to get away from the advanced stat nerds.

 

[The Macho King]

They have to gel with HIM. He's going to get them the puck constantly, but he can finish too, which buys them space. They were playing run and gun before, so that takes a particular type of player, and now their system has changed, so that takes another type of player.

That's not like Bobby Hull, who is going to go end-to-end every single time and everyone knows it. If he runs out of room, he winds up for a slapshot. And that's it. That's his entire game.

That's why I think Lafleur was the better player skillwise, because nobody knew what he was going to do, he could skate and create lanes and set up teammates or he could shoot from far, or go one-on-one.

This feels like a distinction without a difference. The idea is "only one puck" is that certain playstyles - even among high end players - don't gel well together. Crosby is an easy example to highlight that because of some very notable failures.

 

[Sturminator]

I have to say that I was really hoping you guys would bite the bullet and do a Hull-Espo team. It would have been... Interesting at least

Esposito in the 2nd round was tempting...it would have been good value for the player, at least. At any rate, you know you're living in bizarro world when Sergei Makarov ends up being the "conservative" choice in terms of team-building.

I have no idea who I'd want as the RW of a Hull-Esposito line, either...some sort of super digger, I guess. Probably a natural center playing out of position and/or somebody who shouldn't be getting the ES icetime that his linemates deserve. I suppose a guy like Kurri or Mikhailov might work, or maybe a couple undrafteds, but it feels like going all-in hoping for an inside straight - in other words, a good way to lose your chips.

 

[overpass]

They have to gel with HIM. He's going to get them the puck constantly, but he can finish too, which buys them space. They were playing run and gun before, so that takes a particular type of player, and now their system has changed, so that takes another type of player.

That's not like Bobby Hull, who is going to go end-to-end every single time and everyone knows it. If he runs out of room, he winds up for a slapshot. And that's it. That's his entire game. If you are on his line, you play fetch and you get back and play D. A great player like Mikita, who can make plays, is wasted on a line like that. Hull isn't going to find dead space and get open.

That's why I think Lafleur was the better player skillwise, because nobody knew what he was going to do, he could skate and create lanes and set up teammates or he could shoot from far, or go one-on-one.

It’s not like Hull was incapable of passing the puck. Look what he did with the Jets. He showed a lot more to his game than end to end rushes in the WHA.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

It’s not like Hull was incapable of passing the puck. Look what he did with the Jets. He showed a lot more to his game than end to end rushes in the WHA.

Maybe he just matured as he got older. Or maybe he had better coaching. Probably a bit of both.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Bobby Hull: the most caricaturized player in ATD history.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Esposito in the 2nd round was tempting...it would have been good value for the player, at least. At any rate, you know you're living in bizarro world when Sergei Makarov ends up being the "conservative" choice in terms of team-building.

I have no idea who I'd want as the RW of a Hull-Esposito line, either...some sort of super digger, I guess. Probably a natural center playing out of position and/or somebody who shouldn't be getting the ES icetime that his linemates deserve. I suppose a guy like Kurri or Mikhailov might work, or maybe a couple undrafteds, but it feels like going all-in hoping for an inside straight - in other words, a good way to lose your chips.

Pass-first super-digger RW... there are a few... not many.

 

[VanIslander]

Hull and Jagr WANT the puck, but each can dish it out as well.

They need an unselfish, face-off winning pivot skilled at passing and maybe their center or other wing finishes.

Think Henri Richard, Petr Forsberg.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Hull and Jagr WANT the puck, but each can dish it out as well.

They need an unselfish, face-off winning pivot skilled at passing and maybe their center or other wing finishes.

Think Henri Richard, Petr Forsberg.

You picked like two of the most puck-dominant centers ever.