Prospect Info: At 16th Overall the Rangers Select Brennan Othmann

[Edge]

Team Canada summer showcase: U18 standouts and World Junior roster projection

One thing I think Othmann has in his favor is that he's got some wiggle to get to the NHL. In other words, he's not locked into one specific path or bust.

If the skills come together at a higher translation rate, you're looking more at a complimentary top six winger. If they don't, you're probably looking at more of a middle six guy. But it's not like he'd have to re-invent his game entirely depending on the trajectory.

 

[Hinterland]

Higher floor/lower ceiling

there’s not 1 draft board that would put him in front of Lucius talent wise. My guess is the rangers didn’t like the fact he was coming back from knee surgery, even though he came back on fire.
There’s absolutely no other reason they would have preferred Othmann to Lucius.
You can find write ups/reports that praise him as the hardest worker they’ve ever seen, just like Othmann

Who gives a f*** about random draft boards. Both Central Scouting and the TSN guys had Othmann ahead of Lucius. Again, Lucius is fine...the kid just couldn't skate if his dear life depended on it. You also have to wonder if he's even gonna play Center at NHL level. I'd draft Othmann over Lucius any day of the week.

 

[RangerBlues]

I think he's definitely in the middle six mix.

If the skills come together a bit more (he's got some work to do), he's probably closer to a top six role because of his shot. If not, he projects more as third line guy who can maybe slide up. He's a good prospect and one we can afford to wait on.

They went really safe on this pick.
I wanted them to pick a center
I really thought they were going Lucius
or a slim shot at Balduc being Laf's center. But the rangers have never been big on the Q
They went back to back

 

[Edge]

They went really safe on this pick.
I wanted them to pick a center
I really thought they were going Lucius
or a slim shot at Balduc being Laf's center. But the rangers have never been big on the Q
They went back to back

I think the Rangers had a good draft. Not bad, not spectacular, but with a clear purpose in mind. Like a few of their recent actions, I don't think we maximized value. But I do think we came away with useful parts.

Bolduc was a one-time consideration for them, but he slipped on their radar.

Lucius was close. But there were teams who had concerns about some of the medical reports there. I think that was a major consideration for them.

I do think it's almost comical that our approach to the center position is the cosmic balance needed for the Kings to do what they're doing.

 

[gravey9]

If Othmann can turn into a Farabee type, I'll b satisfied with the pick. I think if he keeps working on his skating - which has looked pretty good already and fills out, he could be an interesting player. To find a kid with size, wheels, who can play the body and shoot the puck is an invaluable player to add to a lineup. But he's got a ton of work to do to get there.

 

[Hinterland]

If Othmann can turn into a Farabee type, I'll b satisfied with the pick. I think if he keeps working on his skating - which has looked pretty good already and fills out, he could be an interesting player. To find a kid with size, wheels, who can play the body and shoot the puck is an invaluable player to add to a lineup. But he's got a ton of work to do to get there.

Othmann has hit the gym hard and visibly muscled up but still there's not a lot of size. Don't think he'll ever bring a lot of size but will play big regardless. Also has a much better shot than Farabee already, just won't ever skate like him. I don't see a lot of similarities.

 

[brakeyawself]

I don't. He shouldn't have made the pick before he had a trade in place for the 2nd if that was the case.

How? There’s no way he could have guessed all those centers would fall so far. Not until the first round ended at least.

 

[brakeyawself]

Othmann has hit the gym hard and visibly muscled up but still there's not a lot of size. Don't think he'll ever bring a lot of size but will play big regardless. Also has a much better shot than Farabee already, just won't ever skate like him. I don't see a lot of similarities.

Shooting aside, I don’t quite see Othmann becoming quite as good all around as Farabee. And Farabee is still a terrific scorer and plays well in the dirty areas. He’s just not as physically aggressive as Othmann.

 

[Barnaby]

Let's give this kid a shot. I'm no scout, so I'm not going to act like I can judge the kid on a few YouTube highlight videos. It sounds like he brings a couple of different elements to the table and for that, I'm positive about his future. It's not like this kid was thought to be a mid 2nd or 3rd round pick. He was taken in the proper range. I would've taken Lucius, Svechkov or Wallstedt, but what do I know? Obviously, other teams passed up on those guys as well.

 

[Edge]

Let's give this kid a shot. I'm no scout, so I'm not going to act like I can judge the kid on a few YouTube highlight videos. It sounds like he brings a couple of different elements to the table and for that, I'm positive about his future. It's not like this kid was thought to be a mid 2nd or 3rd round pick. He was taken in the proper range. I would've taken Lucius, Svechkov or Wallstedt, but what do I know? Obviously, other teams passed up on those guys as well.

I think we also got a little spoiled the last few years - 2019 and 2020 were relatively easy decisions. Maybe the closest thing we had to a debate was Schneider? Overall, 2020 was about as close to an ideal, everyone loved it kind of draft as we are likely to find.

This draft was a little harder. Personally I would’ve taken Lucius or a few others at 16. But Othmann isn’t out of line there. I would’ve preferred trading down and adding a pick, but he’s a good prospect for us.

I also think he’s going to be a little further off than what we’ve become used to. Even Schneider is probably going to come along reasonably fast for this team.

Othmann might be a kid who needs the full junior league experience and then some decent AHL time on top of that. That’s not a bad thing though. It’s just something we have to keep in mind.

 

[Barnaby]

I think we also got a little spoiled the last few years - 2019 and 2020 were relatively easy decisions. Maybe the closest thing we had to a debate was Schneider? Overall, 2020 was about as close to an ideal, everyone loved it kind of draft as we are likely to find.

This draft was a little harder. Personally I would’ve taken Lucius or a few others at 16. But Othmann isn’t out of line there. I would’ve preferred trading down and adding a pick, but he’s a good prospect for us.

I also think he’s going to be a little further off than what we’ve become used to. Even Schneider is probably going to come along reasonably fast for this team.

Othmann might be a kid who needs the full junior league experience and then some decent AHL time on top of that. That’s not a bad thing though. It’s just something we have to keep in mind.

That's fine. So was Kravstov staying in the KHL or Lundkvist in the SHL. If you take a guy whose stock appears way lower or has some major character concerns then I get criticisms. When you take a kid whose in the proper range by most counts, then I prefer to wait and see. Having a guy coming in on an ELC in 4 years isn't the worst thing in the world. It's right around the time you'll have to start really paying the current young crop of youngsters. Anyone whose expecting a 16OA to come in and make an impact in 2 years is unrealistic. It COULD happen, but more often than not it doesn't. Just look at a Kakko. He came right in as a 2OA and was woefully unprepared. Would staying in Finland for a year or going to the AHL have been the worst thing? Let the kid simmer for a bit and we'll see what it looks like in a few years. In some ways this kinda feels like the Ridly Greig pick that some forecasted a year ago before Schneider dropped.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Lol biased Ranger fan account, he doesn’t look remotely fast. No objective observer would post that as a highlight of someone looking fast.

Are you now going to root against everyone on the team that Drury drafted/acquired?

 

[Barnaby]

Are you now going to root against everyone on the team that Drury drafted/acquired?

I still think that there is going to be a big shoe to drop this offseason. It's either going to put Drury's whole plan together or take down HFNYR. I certainly get the criticism, but I want to see the finished product that starts the regular season. I wouldn't lose my mind yet.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Are you now going to root against everyone on the team that Drury drafted/acquired?

Of course not, do you think he was showing off impressive speed in that clip though? I was just making sure people are aware that was a Ranger fan account posting that and not some objective analyst type guy. There are some people who genuinely root against their own players if they personally dislike them (see Adam Herman for example) but I would never root against a Ranger, whether it’s JT Miller or Jacob Trouba

 

[EdJovanovski]

I still think that there is going to be a big shoe to drop this offseason. It's either going to put Drury's whole plan together or take down HFNYR. I certainly get the criticism, but I want to see the finished product that starts the regular season. I wouldn't lose my mind yet.

There NEEDS to be something or else the Buch trade is even more flabbergasting than it already was. Throw away a young 1st line winger for scraps and not even use that extra cap space.

 

[Barnaby]

There NEEDS to be something or else the Buch trade is even more flabbergasting than it already was. Throw away a young 1st line winger for scraps and not even use that extra cap space.

I agree. I think they have every intention of using that cap space which is why I'm taking a wait and see approach. I also think Buch has become a fan favorite so maybe we overrated him a bit. Guys on the trade boards were expecting a top 5 pick which was never happening.

I wouldn't say the value of Buch was 'awful' but it was certainly underwhelming. Blaise and a 1st and I wouldn't have batted an eye - even if we threw in a 3rd or 4th on top of it.

 

[EdJovanovski]

I agree. I think they have every intention of using that cap space which is why I'm taking a wait and see approach. I also think Buch has become a fan favorite so maybe we overrated him a bit. Guys on the trade boards were expecting a top 5 pick which was never happening.

I wouldn't say the value of Buch was 'awful' but it was certainly underwhelming. Blaise and a 1st and I wouldn't have batted an eye - even if we threw in a 3rd or 4th on top of it.

We had an offer on the table for the 8th overall pick in 2019. That was a much better draft and Buch was nowhere near the player he is today. At that time not only was he way worse offensively but he was a completely one dimensional player, he’s now emerged as one of the best penalty killers in the league. I’m obviously not the person to go to for an objective evaluation of Buch though as he’s my favorite player ever & I pretty much grew up watching him.

 

[Barnaby]

We had an offer on the table for the 8th overall pick in 2019. That was a much better draft and Buch was nowhere near the player he is today. At that time not only was he way worse offensively but he was a completely one dimensional player, he’s now emerged as one of the best penalty killers in the league. I’m obviously not the person to go to for an objective evaluation of Buch though as he’s my favorite player ever & I pretty much grew up watching him.

The world is different today. First, that deal was on the table and ultimately was NOT accepted as per reports. Buchnevich has 1 year of control, not 3. Is he better? Sure, but now you lost 2 years of control which is huge and an extension occurs in the world of a flat cap. He was a solid PK guy, but "one of the best in the league" might be a reach. I always felt they weren't going longterm on Buch and that was a done deal the moment they resigned Kreider. There's no way you can pay CK and Buch a combined 12+ million.

I agree with you that he should've brought more back in a trade as I stated above, but I do think his value became inflated with HFNYR. To me Blaise and a 1 for Buch and a 3rd should've been the deal.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I think we also got a little spoiled the last few years - 2019 and 2020 were relatively easy decisions. Maybe the closest thing we had to a debate was Schneider? Overall, 2020 was about as close to an ideal, everyone loved it kind of draft as we are likely to find.

This draft was a little harder. Personally I would’ve taken Lucius or a few others at 16. But Othmann isn’t out of line there. I would’ve preferred trading down and adding a pick, but he’s a good prospect for us.

I also think he’s going to be a little further off than what we’ve become used to. Even Schneider is probably going to come along reasonably fast for this team.

Othmann might be a kid who needs the full junior league experience and then some decent AHL time on top of that. That’s not a bad thing though. It’s just something we have to keep in mind.

My expectation for Othmann is to crack the team in 2024. That would be 3 full years after he was drafted and that's pretty normal for players picked in that range. Chris Kreider spent 3 full years in college after we drafted him, and even then he needed some seasoning in the AHL after that surprisingly good post-season in 2012.

My initial reaction on the pick wasn't overly optimistic but the more I look at it, and where we are as a team, the more I understand it.

Lucius, while a nice prospect, has serious question marks too, including his skating. The guy I wanted there was Svechkov but it's not like we reached for a guy that was projected to be a late 1st/early 2nd round selection. I just don't want this Othmann-Lucius debate to become the next Kravtsov-Wahlstrom debate.

 

[Ola]

I also object to the “limited potential” stamp some put on Othman. Again I’ve not followed this draft and it’s perfectly possible that I would have really liked some guys we passed on.

But he definitly has potential to play on a 1st line as more of a complimentary player.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I also object to the “limited potential” stamp some put on Othman. Again I’ve not followed this draft and it’s perfectly possible that I would have really liked some guys we passed on.

But he definitly has potential to play on a 1st line as more of a complimentary player.

A lot of the metrics used on social media are flawed because they aren't established well enough for the league Othmann played in last season. The "his production stagnated which is a near death sentence" quote that's floating around is based on season totals and doesn't factor in Othmann's team and how the team as a whole performed. It was a weird season for Olten.

Started out with 15 points in 17 games, before going cold with 0 in 13, but his team was 0-4-9 including an 8 game losing streak in those 13 games

Once the team recovered, Othmann's production picked up again with 3 points in his final 8

3.18 G/GP during the 11-4-2 streak where he had 15 points

2.76 G/GP during the 4-9-0 streak where he had 0 points

4 G/GP during the 5-1-2 streak where he had 3 points

I don't expect a 17-year old draft eligible kid to carry a pro team when they hit a cold streak. This isn't Auston Matthews, and shouldn't be held to the same standard.

 

[brakeyawself]

I also object to the “limited potential” stamp some put on Othman. Again I’ve not followed this draft and it’s perfectly possible that I would have really liked some guys we passed on.

But he definitly has potential to play on a 1st line as more of a complimentary player.

I think that's fair. I think in general though, when people speak of things like "limited upside" or "middle 6 talent" it is't necessarily ruling out the possibility of becoming a 1st line talent, it's only suggesting that there is a far greater chance of hitting a middle 6 ceiling. And the chances of becoming a 1st line player much lower. But this is true for every prospect ranked further from the number 1 spot in pre-draft aggregate. Using aggregate pre-draft rankings/mocks, the players picked to go 1-5 will have a better chance of hitting a higher ceiling than the picks in 6-11, which will have better odds than picks 12-20 and so on. That also goes for success/failure rate. Mostly, because the most attention and most people are focusing on those higher 1st round prospects, so more is known about them by a wider range of opinions, and most end up seeing the same positives and negatives.

I am curious what the actual difference would be if you only used aggregate and nothing else. Like would you ultimately have a better draft year in year out and collect better players than teams using alternative methods.

But Othmann's chances of actually becoming a long term NHL player aren't exceptionally high to begin with. Most 16th picks, or prospects who ranked where Othmann did in aggregate pre-drafts, still have a moderate shot at long term success, but not necessarily odds you'd put money on. A better chance to at least play SOME NHL games. And far lesser odds for them turning out to be top line players or even top 6 players. So I definitely wouldn't "expect" anything I guess. But if we just went on statistics. His odds of turning out to be a top 6 player aren't so hot. We would be beating the odds if he simply became a long term NHL player.

 

[Edge]

My expectation for Othmann is to crack the team in 2024. That would be 3 full years after he was drafted and that's pretty normal for players picked in that range. Chris Kreider spent 3 full years in college after we drafted him, and even then he needed some seasoning in the AHL after that surprisingly good post-season in 2012.

My initial reaction on the pick wasn't overly optimistic but the more I look at it, and where we are as a team, the more I understand it.

Lucius, while a nice prospect, has serious question marks too, including his skating. The guy I wanted there was Svechkov but it's not like we reached for a guy that was projected to be a late 1st/early 2nd round selection. I just don't want this Othmann-Lucius debate to become the next Kravtsov-Wahlstrom debate.

Yeah, I would say his timeframe is more in line with Kreider/ JT Miller. I think three years to potentially “break in” and maybe a little more to adjust is about on par.

Unfortunately the ongoing debate might also come down to position as much skill. But if he’s sliding into a support role and providing a shooting option that compliments what we have, those debates will become side conversations.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Lucius, while a nice prospect, has serious question marks too, including his skating. The guy I wanted there was Svechkov but it's not like we reached for a guy that was projected to be a late 1st/early 2nd round selection. I just don't want this Othmann-Lucius debate to become the next Kravtsov-Wahlstrom debate.

I have to think our scouts were in the group that thought he had low offensive upside. He's a very polarizing prospect.

 

[RGY]

The way this kid plays he could be joining the 2022-2023 roster towards the end of the year.