As of 2021 - is Crosby vs Ovechkin's all-time ranking finalized, or can one still surpass the other?

[Boxscore]

I think Crosby and Ovechkin are both all-time greats. Crosby's legend has been heavily inflated by the marketing machine who desperately needed to "sell" the NHL post-lockout. Ovechkin's legend is based on his elite goal scoring, raw passion and remarkable ability to produce consistently. At one point, I gave Crosby the edge, but right now I have them basically neck-and-neck in my overall ranking -- and if Ovechkin ends up breaking Gretzky's goal record, I have him ahead of Crosby without question.

When I saw the Hockey News Top-75 list Crosby as the 5th greatest player in history, I had to laugh, as the marketing machine continues to amaze me.

Right now, I don't consider either of them Top-5 in NHL history, although Ovechkin has a better case if he goes down as the greatest goal scorer in NHL history. Quite honestly, I see McDavid surpassing both of these guys quite easily when it's said and done.

 

[daver]

I think Crosby and Ovechkin are both all-time greats. Crosby's legend has been heavily inflated by the marketing machine who desperately needed to "sell" the NHL post-lockout. Ovechkin's legend is based on his elite goal scoring, raw passion and remarkable ability to produce consistently. At one point, I gave Crosby the edge, but right now I have them basically neck-and-neck in my overall ranking -- and if Ovechkin ends up breaking Gretzky's goal record, I have him ahead of Crosby without question.

When I saw the Hockey News Top-75 list Crosby as the 5th greatest player in history, I had to laugh, as the marketing machine continues to amaze me.

Right now, I don't consider either of them Top-5 in NHL history, although Ovechkin has a better case if he goes down as the greatest goal scorer in NHL history. Quite honestly, I see McDavid surpassing both of these guys quite easily when it's said and done.

Hmmmm.....only members of the Big 4 have more Top 3 Art Ross finishes/Hart nominations. He is arguably clearly better than Hull and Beliveau in this regard despite playing in a league with five times as many teams i.e. it is statistically more impressive to finish in the Top 3,5, 10 etc. in the current era vs. the O6.

Best playoff performer of his era.

Very comfortably with Hull and Beliveau as #5 all-time player candidates.

Are these things not reality as opposed to be being a product of media hype?

 

[Plural]

Crosby is better imo. Ovechkin has a chance to surpass him. It's going to be difficult and I don't think it will happen. But it can. At least Ovechkin can close the gap to a point where one could make a reasonable (or ar least an argument that is not laughable) argument that Ovechkin is better/greater.

In my mind, it probably requires him to have 1-2 top-end impactful seasons (top-/5 in Hart and points and lead the league in goals) and another great playoff run. If he can manage to break Gretzky's record while still being a high end player that probably will raise his stocks a bit for me too. But I understand if some folk don't care about that.

 

[bobholly39]

"After 2010, Crosby completely separated himself from OV but has closed a bit since 2018."
-> Not true. From 2015 onwards they are essentially a wash.

Ovechkin is aging better and has mostly been the better player since about 2017, with the exception of 2018-19. Ovechkin is making it close enough where I can't just scoff at the notion that he's been better than Crosby, there's an argument for it.

I've seen a few comments so far suggest Ovechkin is either ahead/tied with Crosby in recent years. I don't see that at all. So responding specifically to the notion that since 2015 it's a wash between the 2, or that Ovechkin is better since 2017:

Since the 2015-2016 seasons, the hart voting count is:

Crosby: 2,2,2,4
Ovechkin is: 6, 7, 9, 12, 13

In fact - Crosby missed out on top 4 in hart in only 2 seasons. 2017-2018 - where in his defense he was coming off back to back cups/smythes and took the foot off the gas at end of season (and in turn came out flying in playoffs, 21 points through 2 rounds). Not a "bad" season, but a bit of a justification to his lower stats or hart placement. And 2019-2020, where he missed half the season to injury, so doesn't really count.

How is this not a very clear edge to Crosby? If we're counting since 2015-2016, Crosby also has 2 cups/smythes to Ovechkin's 1, and 3 great individual playoff runs (16, 17, 18) to Ovechkin's 1 (18). He even did really great internationally at the world cup, with the MVP title.

PPG for Crosby since 2015-2016 is 1.14. Ovechkin is 0.99
If we look only starting 2017-2018, it's a bit closer but Crosby still clearly ahead, 1.15 to 1.06

It may not be a huge gap for Crosby over Ovechkin since 2015, since Ovechkin is still a very solid and consistent player, but I don't understand the argument at all that it somehow would be a tie or Ovechkin ahead.

 

[bobholly39]

Crosby is better imo. Ovechkin has a chance to surpass him. It's going to be difficult and I don't think it will happen. But it can. At least Ovechkin can close the gap to a point where one could make a reasonable (or ar least an argument that is not laughable) argument that Ovechkin is better/greater.

In my mind, it probably requires him to have 1-2 top-end impactful seasons (top-/5 in Hart and points and lead the league in goals) and another great playoff run. If he can manage to break Gretzky's record while still being a high end player that probably will raise his stocks a bit for me too. But I understand if some folk don't care about that.

I think this perfectly captures exactly how I feel on this too. Ovechkin closing gap/beating Gretzky's record while still being a high end player is a lot more significant for me than if he hangs on with a bunch of ~15-20 goals seasons at age 40+. He still has a decent gap to catch up to Crosby on, but I think it's within the realm of possibility.

 

[Calderon]

Imagine Ovi hanging on to that #3 spot in the Art Ross race till the end, only losing to prime (or even peak) McDavid and Draisaitl while Crosby will likely have a hard time making top15. Would certainly tip the scales significantly to Ovi's favor. Huge fan of Ovi and kinda don't think he has it in him anymore, hope I'm proven wrong.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

In terms of what both have contributed offensively through their NHL careers, it's pretty difficult to not put Ovechkin ahead of Crosby right now. While I prefer Crosby's dual-threat abilities in a vacuum, it's close and Ovechkin's completed resume is just better. His influence on his teams goals scored has been better than Crosby's.

Overall, in terms of influencing teams ability to win, it would still be Crosby without having to think about it too much. Crosby's two-way game can get overrated at times, through his career it can be best described as average, but that's very significantly better than Ovechkin's, who is one of the worst defensive players of his era. Another thing is leadership, which some people think is hogwash... but it's hard for me to wash that feeling of Ovechkin, for a large part of his career, playing for himself, wanting to achieve things for himself and not setting an example.

Ovechkin is aging better and has mostly been the better player since about 2017, with the exception of 2018-19. Ovechkin is making it close enough where I can't just scoff at the notion that he's been better than Crosby, there's an argument for it.

Actually crosby was better in 18-19 and 20-21. And in 19-20 he had 47 points in 41 games compared to 67 in 68 so you be the judge of that. Majority of the seasons ovechkin is deemed to be better is when Crosby misses significant time and that's what the fan boys take

 

[Midnight Judges]

I've seen a few comments so far suggest Ovechkin is either ahead/tied with Crosby in recent years. I don't see that at all. So responding specifically to the notion that since 2015 it's a wash between the 2, or that Ovechkin is better since 2017:

Since the 2015-2016 seasons, the hart voting count is:

Crosby: 2,2,2,4
Ovechkin is: 6, 7, 9, 12, 13

In fact - Crosby missed out on top 4 in hart in only 2 seasons. 2017-2018 - where in his defense he was coming off back to back cups/smythes and took the foot off the gas at end of season (and in turn came out flying in playoffs, 21 points through 2 rounds). Not a "bad" season, but a bit of a justification to his lower stats or hart placement. And 2019-2020, where he missed half the season to injury, so doesn't really count.

How is this not a very clear edge to Crosby? If we're counting since 2015-2016, Crosby also has 2 cups/smythes to Ovechkin's 1, and 3 great individual playoff runs (16, 17, 18) to Ovechkin's 1 (18). He even did really great internationally at the world cup, with the MVP title.

PPG for Crosby since 2015-2016 is 1.14. Ovechkin is 0.99
If we look only starting 2017-2018, it's a bit closer but Crosby still clearly ahead, 1.15 to 1.06

It may not be a huge gap for Crosby over Ovechkin since 2015, since Ovechkin is still a very solid and consistent player, but I don't understand the argument at all that it somehow would be a tie or Ovechkin ahead.

You did a nice job of highlighting only the things in Crosby's favor.

Here are some other factors:

Crosby has been a disaster in the playoffs for the past 3 years. 6 points and 3 goals in 12 games. (.5 PPG. .25 GPG.)

Ovechkin has been quite good - 18 points and 10 goals in 17 games. (1.06 PPG, .59 GPG)

In the past 3 years plus this season,

Ovechkin has 135 goals
Crosby has 75

Ovechkin has 224 points.
Crosby has 210.

Ovechkin has 191 primary points
Sid has 164

 

[bobholly39]

You did a nice job of highlighting only the things in Crosby's favor.

Here are some other factors:

Crosby has been a disaster in the playoffs for the past 3 years. 6 points and 3 goals in 12 games. (.5 PPG. .25 GPG.)

Ovechkin has been quite good - 18 points and 10 goals in 17 games. (1.06 PPG, .59 GPG)

In the past 3 years plus this season,

Ovechkin has 135 goals
Crosby has 75

Ovechkin has 224 points.
Crosby has 210.

Ovechkin has 191 primary points
Sid has 164

Your cherry picking is always entertaining. Last 3 years including this season? How about excluding this season, since you know Crosby's played 2 games so far after injury/covid. We can look at this season after it completes.

Past 3 years:

Crosby 209 points in 175 games (1.19 ppg) + 18 rating. Hart placements of 2, 4 - and missed half the season in year 3.
Ovechkin 198 points in 194 games (1.02 ppg). -12 rating. One 7th place hart placement.

Playoffs? Sure - Crosby has been horrible. Ovechkin hasn't exactly been great either though. He was good 3 years ago, and then bad 2 years in a row. To me playoffs is a writeoff for both - moreso Crosby maybe - but certainly not anything worth looking at past 3 years, all first round exits.

Past 3 years is an even bigger advantage for Crosby by the looks of it

 

[Midnight Judges]

Your cherry picking is always entertaining. Last 3 years including this season? How about excluding this season, since you know Crosby's played 2 games so far after injury/covid.

Well, no, because this season is actually happening here in reality.

 

[bobholly39]

Well, no, because this season is actually happening here in reality.

15 game sample sizes are fun.

I guess Draisaitl >>> Ovechkin as a goal-scorer. On route to 92 goals - beats Ovechkin's measly 65 goal season.

Or - again - you know, let's wait until the end of the season to evaluate it?

 

[JackSlater]

Imagine Ovi hanging on to that #3 spot in the Art Ross race till the end, only losing to prime (or even peak) McDavid and Draisaitl while Crosby will likely have a hard time making top15. Would certainly tip the scales significantly to Ovi's favor. Huge fan of Ovi and kinda don't think he has it in him anymore, hope I'm proven wrong.

It would be hugely impressive if Ovechkin could keep up anything close to what he's been doing thus far. I doubt he can but it would be impressive. We'll see.

One thing that I think is clear is that Ovechkin will be thought of more highly than Crosby in the future provided he scores more goals than Gretzky. It seems fairly likely that he will do that. As bizarre as I find it you can find plenty of people today who will say that Crosby has been better but they will change their mind if Ovechkin hits that arbitrary goals threshold. Someone who only looks back on Ovechkin's numbers without actually watching 2011 and beyond Ovechkin is only going to be more likely to support Ovechkin's case. The ghosts at the Montreal Forum probably shake their heads and think the same thing when they see Morenz vs Shore discussions and the weight that Shore's 4 Harts carry.

 

[seventieslord]

You did a nice job of highlighting only the things in Crosby's favor.

Here are some other factors:

Crosby has been a disaster in the playoffs for the past 3 years. 6 points and 3 goals in 12 games. (.5 PPG. .25 GPG.)

Ovechkin has been quite good - 18 points and 10 goals in 17 games. (1.06 PPG, .59 GPG)

In the past 3 years plus this season,

Ovechkin has 135 goals
Crosby has 75

Ovechkin has 224 points.
Crosby has 210.

Ovechkin has 191 primary points
Sid has 164

not that it matters all that much, but that's in 20 playoff games, not 17.

Also, 14 games for Crosby, not 12.

 

[hamzarocks]

Hmmmm.....only members of the Big 4 have more Top 3 Art Ross finishes/Hart nominations. He is arguably clearly better than Hull and Beliveau in this regard despite playing in a league with five times as many teams i.e. it is statistically more impressive to finish in the Top 3,5, 10 etc. in the current era vs. the O6.

Best playoff performer of his era.

Very comfortably with Hull and Beliveau as #5 all-time player candidates.

Are these things not reality as opposed to be being a product of media hype?

Those top 3 Art Ross finishes don't include 08, 11, and 12 right? 2 of the 3 where he would win the ross/hart/lindsay and rocket in 2011.

08 he'd probably be around OV within +/- 3 points or so. Would have made the NHL 1st team and top 2 hart and lindsay.

Crosby having such a strong legacy and trophy case despite injuries in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2017 taking away like 8-12 awards (4x in 2011, 3 in 2012, 2 in 2013, potentially ross in 2015, 2017 potentially Ross + Lindsay as he finished at a 97 pt pace vs 100 for Mcdavid)

If we say he even gets 6 more awards (the 4 in 2011 and 2 in 2013) his career trophy count is up to 17 awards which is amongst the all-time greats, giving him almost as many awards as OV while having better production.

Crosby did slow down from 2018 onwards, which let OV come back and make this a potential race down the line. If OV wins major hardware this year (not rocket, think one of Ross/Hart/Lindsay/Smythe) I think he'd pull ahead of Crosby

 

[jigglysquishy]

I find the focus on Ovechkin and goals actually underrates his peak. His 2005-2010 peak was tremendous and a whole category above what he's done since.

Despite not winning the Rocket, I would take his 2006 rookie season over anything post 2010 except for 2013 and maybe 2015.

 

[seventieslord]

The last three playoffs are a pretty interesting analytics case study for Crosby. Eye test folks have said he has looked bad. I would personally agree he hasn't looked great. But also, things like pucks going into the net can go a long way towards helping the eye test look better. Here's the thing. In the last three playoffs, 280 NHL forwards have at least 100 minutes played at even strength. During those three playoffs, Crosby is:

- 8th in Corsi for per 60
- 44th (best) in Corsi against per 60
- 10th in Corsi for %

Looks like a player who's really driving the play, making pucks go towards the opponent's net but not his own, right?

But it changes everything when you rank:

- 243rd in on-ice shooting percentage
- 255th in on-ice save percentage
- 260th in PDO

Then you really have to question whether a player is playing poorly or if he's being sunk by bad luck and the performances around him. Tristan Jarry has been beaten to death (and rightly so) so I won't even go there, but the shooting percentage is unsustainably low, too. It's an artifact of the small sample sizes of individual playoffs, more than anything. He can affect it to some degree (especially with the quality of the shots he takes himself) but he can't control the finishing ability of the players he is on the ice with. Even still, those players are much better than they've shown the last three playoffs.

If he was able to get even the median on-ice sh% of 7.62% then he'd have 3.5 more GF and if his goalies could have given him at least median level sv% he'd have 4.1 fewer GA. In all the close games the Pens have lost, (7 by a goal), this would have almost certainly translated into a few wins, and a few wins is all it would have taken to go from zero series wins to two, and more games to see the puck luck regress to the mean, and we'd probably be talking about 2019-2021 a lot differently.

This is not to say that he's some hero being ruined by bad luck and inept teammates. His expected goals for and against are much less drastic, suggesting he's been unable to get as many quality shots to the net - he falls to 20th in xGF/60 and 233rd (best) in xGA/60, indicating slightly lower quality of chances than corsi suggests, but MUCH higher quality chances against than corsi suggests. Still, at 101st out of 280 in xGF% he deserves much better than to be 3-3-6, -6 in 14 GP, with a team record of 3-11.

 

[Midnight Judges]

15 game sample sizes are fun.

I guess Draisaitl >>> Ovechkin as a goal-scorer. On route to 92 goals - beats Ovechkin's measly 65 goal season.

Or - again - you know, let's wait until the end of the season to evaluate it?

Except my sample size was 200 games, not 15 games.

 

[Midnight Judges]

not that it matters all that much, but that's in 20 playoff games, not 17.

Also, 14 games for Crosby, not 12.

Ovechkin played in 3 meaningless exhibition games that the players on teams that had an automatic berth into the playoffs obviously did not care about.

They are labeled as playoff games but they really weren't.

 

[edog37]

it amazes me that people still think there is some comparison. Crosby won the debate hands down a long time ago & it still isn't even close.

 

[seventieslord]

Not really. Ovechkin played in 3 meaningless exhibition games that the players on teams that had an automatic berth into the playoffs obviously did not care about.

They are labeled as playoff games but they really weren't.

It's news to me that the players didn't take these games seriously. Of course they were important, they affected the seeding.

 

[Midnight Judges]

It's news to me that the players didn't take these games seriously. Of course they were important, they affected the seeding.

Okay well I watched them and it definitely wasn't playoff hockey. There was no elimination at stake in those games.

 

[Midnight Judges]

it amazes me that people still think there is some comparison. Crosby won the debate hands down a long time ago & it still isn't even close.

It's going to be hard to maintain that impression with Crosby out-pointed, massively out-hardwared, and out-goaled by a whopping 50% (742 to 486) in the same number of seasons.

 

[JackSlater]

I find the focus on Ovechkin and goals actually underrates his peak. His 2005-2010 peak was tremendous and a whole category above what he's done since.

Despite not winning the Rocket, I would take his 2006 rookie season over anything post 2010 except for 2013 and maybe 2015.

I agree. For me the biggest part of Ovechkin's legacy by far is the pre-2011 Ovechkin, the one who could carry the play for his line. He was an all time great already. If 2011 to today Ovechkin was a distinct player I would not be very impressed with him in an all time sense. When you're adding it on as some extra prime and longevity to the original Ovechkin however it makes a nice overall package. For the sake of fairness, Crosby is in that phase now as well and Ovechkin can make some ground if Crosby slips.

 

[edog37]

It's going to be hard to maintain that impression with Crosby out-pointed, massively out-hardwared, and out-goaled by a whopping 50% (742 to 486) in the same number of seasons.

You mean one-trick pony Ovechkin who does nothing but sit on the half-way & waits to be fed the puck? Crosby has the rings, the post-season awards & plays a far-greater overall game. Ovechkin is essentially a modern version of Brett Hull & that's it. Ovechkin has had one good playoff season his entire career (2018). That's it. In head-to-head in the playoffs when it counts most, Crosby is 3-1. If you throw the Olympics into it, he is 5-1. There is no debate. Crosby in a landslide.

 

[Midnight Judges]

You mean one-trick pony Ovechkin...

I don't think lying is going to help your case.