As a fan what is your "Realistic" expectation for next season? What you want?

[slozo]

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I find it hilarious that, after all of the Strum und Drang -- and a complete hfboards meltdown against the Leafs, both on and off the Leafs board -- the Toronto Maple Leafs are 4th best odds of winning the cup this year, and the odds have... increased.

If the goaltending this year somehow surprises to the upside, that number is going up, too.

Stop buying into the self-hating narrative the other fanbases are feeding you, guys.

We can't win in the playoffs and what you are saying has been repeated EXACTLY the last three years. Until we get over the first round hump, there shouldn't be any reasonable expectation for great optimism when we've only done sideways moves, none of them upgrading where we are weakest for playoff success (depth scoring, toughness/grit).

 

[CabanaBoy5]

View attachment 573193

I find it hilarious that, after all of the Strum und Drang -- and a complete hfboards meltdown against the Leafs, both on and off the Leafs board -- the Toronto Maple Leafs are 4th best odds of winning the cup this year, and the odds have... increased.

If the goaltending this year somehow surprises to the upside, that number is going up, too.

Stop buying into the self-hating narrative the other fanbases are feeding you, guys.

I just read that article from the Athletic and find it interesting how the narrative from some hf posters and media is that we’ve regressed and even may not make the playoffs. We’re just coming off a 115 pt season and lost a couple of bottom six and an inconsistent injury prone goalie, yet somehow our team has regressed. It’s really laughable the lengths they go to push their anti Leaf agendas.

 

[LeafEgo]

I just read that article from the Athletic and find it interesting how the narrative from some hf posters and media is that we’ve regressed and even may not make the playoffs. We’re just coming off a 115 pt season and lost a couple of bottom six and an inconsistent injury prone goalie, yet somehow our team has regressed. It’s really laughable the lengths they go to push their anti Leaf agendas.

I haven't seen anyone say we're going to miss the playoffs, but maybe I missed it. I reckon we're closer to the presidents trophy than that.

But the objective of the regular season is really just to be better than half of the other teams. Seeding is overrated.

 

[Bomber0104]

I just read that article from the Athletic and find it interesting how the narrative from some hf posters and media is that we’ve regressed and even may not make the playoffs. We’re just coming off a 115 pt season and lost a couple of bottom six and an inconsistent injury prone goalie, yet somehow our team has regressed. It’s really laughable the lengths they go to push their anti Leaf agendas.

Zero playoff wins will do that to a fanbase I guess.

You expect a team to go from literally zero playoff success to a Cup overnight?

This simply doesn't happen.

Betting lines don't reflect reality, there's just a lot of Leafs fans out there throwing money away the same as the past 50-some-odd years..

 

[Dekes For Days]

You expect a team to go from literally zero playoff success to a Cup overnight?
This simply doesn't happen.

Except when it has.

 

[TGB]

The most realistic expectation for this team...is for everyone to enjoy the games they do play and don't get upset about the games they don't. It's just entertainment. Getting too emotionally invested in the fortunes of a sports franchise, especially one as maddening as the Leafs, will only give you grey hairs before you're 40.

 

[thewave]

The most realistic expectation for this team...is for everyone to enjoy the games they do play and don't get upset about the games they don't. It's just entertainment. Getting too emotionally invested in the fortunes of a sports franchise, especially one as maddening as the Leafs, will only give you grey hairs before you're 40.

Well this is not the competitive spirit of sport. I understand what you are saying but unlike TV and most other entertainment, sports provide thrills and chills. I just can't divorce myself from seeing a team play hard and win. Also, there is a relationship that comes with being a fan. Sort of like watching your kids play a game but to a lesser degree.

 

[belair]

We'll see about the goaltending. Campbell is more of a sure thing than either of Murray and Samsonov. I won't say the potential of payoff isn't there but it will require a significantly better season than either of those two have had in their past couple of seasons.

I'm not sure "blue chip prospect" means to him what it means to me and you. Nick Robertson may be in the vicinity of that description. I don't know who else he's thinking of other than Robertson to use a plural.

The Oilers have numerous prospects ahead of Nick Robertson in terms of skill and draft pedigree. Nick Robertson might improve his stock if he ever managed to stay healthy.

Blue-chip prospects are generally ones that you get when you select players in the first round. They have a higher likelihood of being something more than a depth player.

 

[belair]

They lost Smith, who was their best goalie last year by a lot and better than Jack last year.

They lost Keith, the guy they used as their primary tough usage matchup dman.

And they look likely to lose another piece for cap reasons.

Do you ever compare your arguments based on when you make them? I wonder what your opinion of Smith vs Campbell was six months ago.

The Oilers now have a full season of Kane and Kulak and an established starting goaltender for the first time since Talbot. They're deeper than last season.

 

[justashadowof]

Blue-chip prospects are generally ones that you get when you select players in the first round. They have a higher likelihood of being something more than a depth player.

Thanks, doctor. I get it. You're an Oiler's fan. You can't imagine any other way of building an NHL team than with 1st round picks.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

Do you ever compare your arguments based on when you make them? I wonder what your opinion of Smith vs Campbell was six months ago.

The Oilers now have a full season of Kane and Kulak and an established starting goaltender for the first time since Talbot. They're deeper than last season.

I'd hardly call a 135 game career at the age of 30 "established". There are just as many question marks on Campbell as there are on Murray/Samsonov except the questions will linger for 5 years for Edmonton. Huge risk taken by both teams but I'd rather bank on the younger Samsonov or younger and proven Murray. Time will tell if the gamble pays off for either team but the Leafs are the better overall team.

 

[deprw]

Thanks, doctor. I get it. You're an Oiler's fan. You can't imagine any other way of building an NHL team than with 1st round picks.

*1st overall picks.

 

[belair]

Thanks, doctor. I get it. You're an Oiler's fan. You can't imagine any other way of building an NHL team than with 1st round picks.

No. That's generally where the vast majority of impact players come from in the NHL though. Even your Leafs' big four all came from the early 1st round. So did Reilly.

*1st overall picks.

You've got just as many on your roster as Edmonton does.

 

[Commander Clueless]

Attempting my best "realistic" stance without being just straight "pessimistic".

I have a hard time getting over just how tenuous our goaltending situation is. I think we have a very good team in front of the net. The defense is solid if not flashy, and the forward group is top heavy but damn if that top isn't good.

However, in net, we have two big question marks. Hard to be confident in either of these guys.

My prediction is the Leafs make the playoffs but are scrambling for goaltending help by December. I'll consider that a "struggle to make playoffs" if that makes sense, but it's hard to predict how well Dubas can recover from this goaltending situation. I feel like he can, but it will cost us assets.

As always, I hope I'm entirely wrong and Murray/Samsonov absolutely blow our socks off.

 

[keonsbitterness]

You actually think Leafs nation is BOOSTING the betting lines on the leafs.

Thats adorable. Have you ever met Leafs nation?

The bigger or more popular teams, known in betting circles as public teams, do affect betting lines. That's been a thing for decades. Oddsmakers used analytics in sports long before anyone else.

The Leafs nation betting community is probably not well represented on this board.

 

[zeke]

The bigger or more popular teams, known in betting circles as public teams, do affect betting lines. That's been a thing for decades. Oddsmakers used analytics in sports long before anyone else.

The Leafs nation betting community is probably not well represented on this board.

So you're saying that if we looked at the historical betting odds, then they would consistently overrate the Leafs' chances on average due to their larger fanbase, correct?

and this would apply to the largest market teams in all sports?

 

[keonsbitterness]

So you're saying that if we looked at the historical betting odds, then they would consistently overrate the Leafs' chances on average due to their larger fanbase, correct?

and this would apply to the largest market teams in all sports?

Larger betting markets, or teams with more recent on-field success (which also tend to attract more casual bettors, derisively known as suckers), sure, at least to some degree. The goal is to have equal bets on both or all sides of a proposition, not to outright predict an outcome.

 

[zeke]

Larger betting markets, or teams with more recent on-field success (which also tend to attract more casual bettors, derisively known as suckers), sure, at least to some degree. The goal is to have equal bets on both or all sides of a proposition, not to outright predict an outcome.

So how would you explain it if the betting odds have not overrated the Leafs on average?

 

[TheProspector]

While it's good to see as you'd think at some point this team would have to exercise it's demons and actually do something in the playoffs, when it comes to the Leafs, Odds don't me a damn thing. Unless the league starts to implement a first round bye mechanic I honestly don't know if this core can get out of the first round. They get too spooked when ever the have an opportunity to do it.

They say that about every team until they do. I'm not worried. I was told Ovechkin was simply incapable of winning a cup.

 

[WillyC]

I expect the Leafs to be top 5 and possibly 1st overall… and I expect us to carry that into the playoffs.
I’m always optimistic… and this year I expect the Leafs to dominate most games.

 

[keonsbitterness]

So how would you explain it if the betting odds have not overrated the Leafs on average?

Probably nothing since betting odds have nothing to do with over/underrating.

 

[K2MyEverest]

I think its time to go all in. Players have suffered enough and they are prime to make a run. Leafs are my favorite to win the East in the playoffs. Can you beat Colorado? I dont know but you would give a better run to Colorado than Tampa Bay. I think you should bring Subban to Toronto. He always rises up to the occasion and that could meana fireworks for Toronto.

 

[zeke]

Probably nothing since betting odds have nothing to do with over/underrating.

The theory being espoused here is that we can't trust betting odds to be accurate for the Leafs because they will always overrate the Leafs due to market size.

 

[keonsbitterness]

The theory being espoused here is that we can't trust betting odds to be accurate for the Leafs because they will always overrate the Leafs due to market size.

For strictly on-ice performance, you shouldn't trust betting odds to properly rate any team.

 

[Fixxer]

I want this team to get a playoff spot. The defense and goalie situation is still horrendous dous. Worst case, the guys get a look at acquiring Bedard…