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Player Discussion Artemi Panarin

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Dactyl said:
Just bumping this post. He’s projected to be a top line talent throughout the contract. So far, he’s been absolutely elite out there.
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This is my sticking point.

It's not that there wont be a chance of 'fall-off'... that it's being over-done/exaggerated.

How I read it, it's he'll be a 40-50 pt player akin to Rick Nash in his 6th-7th year. I think that's as irrational as me saying he'll be a 150pt player at 33 years old
 
shinchanuuhh said:
And the thing we're pointing out is that WITH a small sample size it is wrong to make definitive statements about someone being the exception to the rule.

The list is also small which helps prove our point. It's small bc of how rare it is to produce at that level for that long. Players on that list play a multitude of styles, they are varied in size and in peak point production. Which means there are WAY more guys we could compare with who did not maintain production.

So when u say 40-50 points WILL NOT HAPPEN in three years you are wrong. There is nothing to justify DEFINITIVELY saying that. The vast majority of evidence shows that he is much more likely to decline than he is to stay at this level. A much much smaller amount of evidence shows that there is a chance for him to be elite until he's 33 or older. We ALL are hoping he winds up falling into that small chance. We just do not agree with wrongly stating that it is a definite
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Ok... this is semantics.

People typically slow down the older they get. Using that as a foundation, that he'll be a 40-50 pt player when he's 33 is asinine imo

Using the 'average' to project where an elite play-making ( top .01% talent ) will be, is faulty at best.
 
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duhmetreE said:
I'm dismissing Vinny as a viable comparable to Panarin. I dont think anyone in the universe would use Vinny Lecalvalier as a comp to Panarin.
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Oh, but Marchand and Ovechkin are good comps when discussing style of play or body type? Or Crosby?

We can use any example to fit the narrative.
It's not that there wont be a chance of 'fall-off'... that it's being over-done/exaggerated.
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What does this have to do with how age affects you in your mid-30s? Whether or not you are elite or not elite makes no difference. Being described as "elite" does not mean you have somehow discovered the fountain of youth.
 
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True Blue said:
Oh, but Marchand and Ovechkin are good comps when discussing style of play or body type? Or Crosby?

We can use any example to fit the narrative.

What does this have to do with how age affects you in your mid-30s? Whether or not you are elite or not elite makes no difference. Being described as "elite" does not mean you have somehow discovered the fountain of youth.
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It makes a huge difference... 70% of a 90 point player is still a 1st liner. 70% of a 3rd liner is no longer an NHL player.
 
SA16 said:
It makes a huge difference... 70% of a 90 point player is still a 1st liner. 70% of a 3rd liner is no longer an NHL player.
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The fact that Panarin is an elite player is not and has never been the debate.
 
NYR Viper said:
Panarin, playing with mainly Strome and Fast, is on pace for his career best in points and goals. Let that sink in for a moment.
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In fairness, about 30% of his points have come on the PP. But yeah, he has been wonderful to watch.

And if Strome's only job is to feed Panarin the puck, he is doing it pretty well. I can see why Quinn said he is not moving Strome. The two have displayed chemistry.
 
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duhmetreE said:
.

It's not that there wont be a chance of 'fall-off'... that it's being over-done/exaggerated.

How I read it, it's he'll be a 40-50 pt player akin to Rick Nash in his 6th-7th year. I think that's as irrational as me saying he'll be a 150pt player at 33 years old
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Our sticking point isthat the vast majority of all players of all skill levels decline significantly by their 31, 32 year old season. There is no overblowing it. It is a fact.

There is absolutely nothing irrational about being worried for the last 2-3 years of his deal bc that worry aligns with overwhelming evidence.

Anyone saying that he is guaranteed to decline that much is overblowing it bc we have no way to determine that. I don't see anyone doing that. I DO see people dismissing that its even possible. Those people are incredibly foolish for doing so.

I see others use a couple of reasons to justify being hopeful while acknowledging that we are in the dark here. That is perfectly rational
 
SA16 said:
It makes a huge difference... 70% of a 90 point player is still a 1st liner. 70% of a 3rd liner is no longer an NHL player.
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Did we get 70% of Richards or Nash with any degree of consistency? I dont think we got even that. It's about more than points. Thank christ we could buy out Brad and we only had a few years of Nash AND Boston lost its damn mind

We hadso manyreasons to believe Richard's would not decline until 35, 36 years old just as we have soooooo many reasons to think panarin won't. But we didn't know shit then and we know as much now.

Richard's decline started at 29. By 31 he was a shell of himself. Richard's is the rule not the exception. This is how age works for most players regardless of style and whatever other factors we want to think about. We think we can predict who the freaks of nature will be. We cant. We can only take wild guesses

When will we need panarin for projected cup runs? When hes 30-33.
 
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shinchanuuhh said:
Did we get 70% of Richards or Nash with any degree of consistency? I dont think we got even that. It's about more than points. Thank christ we could buy out Brad and we only had a few years of Nash AND Boston lost its damn mind

We hadso manyreasons to believe Richard's would not decline until 35, 36 years old just as we have soooooo many reasons to think panarin won't. But we didn't know **** then and we know as much now.

Richard's decline started at 29. By 31 he was a shell of himself. Richard's is the rule not the exception. This is how age works for most players regardless of style and whatever other factors we want to think about. We think we can predict who the freaks of nature will be. We cant. We can only take wild guesses

When will we need panarin for projected cup runs? When hes 30-33.
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29? Richards started declining more at like 32, lol. He was still fine at 29
 
Rangerfan4life90 said:
29? Richards started declining more at like 32, lol. He was still fine at 29
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Go get his stats by age then. If I'm wrong then my bad.

Nvm I did it. You are wrong.
Hes 29-30 inDallas. He goes from 91 to 77 points.

Last Ichecked that's a decline right lol? His numbers never went back up. They continued to decrease. Injuries start happening with age, numbers decline, athleticism declines. All starts as he goes from 29 to 30 years old
 
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shinchanuuhh said:
Go get his stats by age then. If I'm wrong then my bad.
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2009-2010, he got 91 points as a 29-year-old. 2010-2011, he got 77 points in 72 games. 2011-2012, he got 66 points in 82 games with the Rangers. 2012-2013, he got 34 points in 46 games. 2013-2014, he got 51 points in 82 games (a decline formed around this year when he was 32-33), and 2014-2015, he got 37 points in 76 games with the Blackhawks.
 
shinchanuuhh said:
Go get his stats by age then. If I'm wrong then my bad.

Nvm I did it. You are wrong.
Hes 29-30 inDallas. He goes from 91 to 77 points.

Last Ichecked that's a decline right lol? His numbers never went back up. They continued to decrease. Injuries start happening with age, numbers decline, athleticism declines. All starts as he goes from 29 to 30 years old
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Those 77 points came in 72 games. That's 87-88 projected to 82 games. It wasn't a decline.
 
Rangerfan4life90 said:
2009-2010, he got 91 points as a 29-year-old. 2010-2011, he got 77 points in 72 games. 2011-2012, he got 66 points in 82 games with the Rangers. 2012-2013, he got 34 points in 46 games. 2013-2014, he got 51 points in 82 games (a decline formed around this year when he was 32-33), and 2014-2015, he got 37 points in 76 games with the Blackhawks.
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Is this ajoke? He goes from 91 to 77 and then to 66 but it's not a decline yet?

What world do some of you live in?
 
shinchanuuhh said:
Is this ajoke? He goes from 91 to 77 and then to 66 but it's not a decline yet?

What world do some of you live in?
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As I said, the 77 point season was in line with his previous seasons of production. He clearly hit a decline in his first year with the Rangers, but he was still good his first 2 years here. He was a middling first line center those years, instead of the high-end first line center he had been previously. It was his 3rd season that the decline had reached a real tipping point where he wasn't even capable of middling 1C play anymore, which is why they bought him out.
 
Richards declined because of his foot speed (never great to begin with). Plus we never get the full stories of what guys are dealing with injury wise (just because they don't miss time doesnt mean they aren't dealing with an injury. Lecavlier was never the same after his wrists were messed up, eventually getting surgery.

Panarin does a really good job of avoiding unecessary contact, something Howden and Hajek need to learn. We are literally worrying about 5-7 years from now. I'd be more worried if I was Toronto and their contracts they handed out like candy.
 
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Rangerfan4life90 said:
It was 77 points in 72 games, not a full 82. I also look at more than just points. He definitely looked finished in the 2013-2014 season.
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Injuries come with age You don't get credit bc you missed games. 77 is less than 91 by a significant degree, thanks for playing.

When he gets a full 82 he STILL goes down to 66 FURTHER showing his decline, thanks for playing.

He definitely looked finished? That's nice and all but this is a discussion about when players decline and not a discussion about when a player is arbitrarily "finished"

Am I being a bit sarcastic? You're damn right bc I have absolutely zero patience for someone who is staring at the numbers as black and white as possible and is trying to use absolute nonsense bs to fudge things. 91-77-66... but he wasn't declining, yea ok gtho I don't think I've ever had any issue with you but you're being ridiculous here

WojtekWolski86 said:
Richards declined because of his foot speed (never great to begin with). Plus we never get the full stories of what guys are dealing with injury wise (just because they don't miss time doesnt mean they aren't dealing with an injury. Lecavlier was never the same after his wrists were messed up, eventually getting surgery.

Panarin does a really good job of avoiding unecessary contact, something Howden and Hajek need to learn. We are literally worrying about 5-7 years from now. I'd be more worried if I was Toronto and their contracts they handed out like candy.
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I'm sorry, I'm not trying to be rude to you but some bleed over from the last guy is happening here.

His foot speed possibly combined wiiiith...age! You got it that's right!

Increased likelihood of possible injuries comes wiiiiith...age! You got it that's two!

Wear and tear builds up wiiiiith...age! 3 for 3!

Like I said before (only like 1000 times including on this very page of this thread) SOME players...for a variety of reasons...can be freaks of nature and last a long time. But we have absolutely zero way to definitively show one way or another who that will be.

We can worry or simply DISCUSS whatever we want. It's called hockeys future. Discussing now and the future is kind of the point.
 
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And I'm sorry to anyone who sees this and is like "Oh God just drop this discussion". Because I did. I was HUGE on this topic in the summer and I barely discussed it again until now. Because some people keep popping in with crap that essentially is the same as "LOL WHERE DA HATERS NOW??? HURR..... PEOPLE THOUGHT THE CONTRACT WOULD BE BAD? LOL!!!!!"

I just don't have it in me to ignore it.

So I come in, explain why that comment is absolutely asinine bullshit. Then someone else comes in with a point that is just...bad...not only is it bad but they think it';s good so they compound it by making their point with this air of unearned smugness.

And the beat goes on bc I'm a sucker for troll bait I guess (and I swear most of it has to be accidental bait from people who think they're actually making good points but I take it anyway)

Intelligence comes in many forms and when it comes to being intelligent enough to just ignore people who make bad points I am a complete imbecile
 
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shinchanuuhh said:
And I'm sorry to anyone who sees this and is like "Oh God just drop this discussion". Because I did. I was HUGE on this topic in the summer and I barely discussed it again until now. Because some people keep popping in with crap that essentially is the same as "LOL WHERE DA HATERS NOW??? HURR..... PEOPLE THOUGHT THE CONTRACT WOULD BE BAD? LOL!!!!!"

I just don't have it in me to ignore it.

So I come in, explain why that comment is absolutely asinine bull****. Then someone else comes in with a point that is just...bad...not only is it bad but they think it';s good so they compound it by making their point with this air of unearned smugness.

And the beat goes on bc I'm a sucker for troll bait I guess (and I swear most of it has to be accidental bait from people who think they're actually making good points but I take it anyway)

Intelligence comes in many forms and when it comes to being intelligent enough to just ignore people who make bad points I am a complete imbecile
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Oh, the irony.
 
shinchanuuhh said:
And I'm sorry to anyone who sees this and is like "Oh God just drop this discussion". Because I did. I was HUGE on this topic in the summer and I barely discussed it again until now. Because some people keep popping in with crap that essentially is the same as "LOL WHERE DA HATERS NOW??? HURR..... PEOPLE THOUGHT THE CONTRACT WOULD BE BAD? LOL!!!!!"

I just don't have it in me to ignore it.

So I come in, explain why that comment is absolutely asinine bull****. Then someone else comes in with a point that is just...bad...not only is it bad but they think it';s good so they compound it by making their point with this air of unearned smugness.

And the beat goes on bc I'm a sucker for troll bait I guess (and I swear most of it has to be accidental bait from people who think they're actually making good points but I take it anyway)

Intelligence comes in many forms and when it comes to being intelligent enough to just ignore people who make bad points I am a complete imbecile
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But Mika is "injury prone" ... he must be old. I don't think messed up wrists come with age....back, knees, hip, groin? Sure. But go ahead and twist things to fit your narrative.

This is like arguing that Hank is overpaid now when he earned the contract that he got at the time. When Panarin gets to the same point as Hanks contract we can talk about it then. It's silly to have a hypothetical argument about age vs injury vs drop off when he is 28. For all we know he gets 3 concussions next year and is done for his career.
 
WojtekWolski86 said:
But Mika is "injury prone" ... he must be old. I don't think messed up wrists come with age....back, knees, hip, groin? Sure. But go ahead and twist things to fit your narrative.

This is like arguing that Hank is overpaid now when he earned the contract that he got at the time. When Panarin gets to the same point as Hanks contract we can talk about it then. It's silly to have a hypothetical argument about age vs injury vs drop off when he is 28. For all we know he gets 3 concussions next year and is done for his career.
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ZBad is not injury prone. No one is accusing him of being old.

As far as what people are debating, if you do not want to hear it (not you specifically) then why bring up "What are the Panarin haters thinking now"?

And again, some people like to discuss things that pertain to this franchise, that are beyond simply discussing last night's game.
 
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