Around the NHL, Off-Season Edition

[The Note]

And that’s the rub. They will be pretty good this year but likely not really contender. And they are set up to get progressively worse in coming years while hugely overpaying aging guys.

I would argue that is more or less what the Blues are doing also.

Edit - didn't see BD's comment, but yeah I agree.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

And that’s the rub. They will be pretty good this year but likely not really contender. And they are set up to get progressively worse in coming years while hugely overpaying aging guys.

I think that’s most likely true, but I respect their approach to field the most competitive team they can vs tearing it down and losing on purpose. My respect for Calgary has gone up, and I’ll root for them in the Pacific.

I would argue that is more or less what the Blues are doing also.

Edit - didn't see BD's comment, but yeah I agree.

I think you may be right. The Blues are right at the edge of the slope down to mediocrity. It depends how much juice they get from young guys like Bolduc and Neighbors, or another surprise contributor.

Calgary is embracing the Doug Armstrong theory of the post-season where you just need to get a ticket into the dance and you have a chance.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I don't think the 1st to move Monahan was just so that they could sign Kadri. It also leaves them with a cap cushion of $300k-$600k or so if they run a 23 man roster (more if they run 22 guys for stretches to bank cap space). They should wind up with enough banked space to bring in a good rental at the deadline if they want to go that route.

They probably could have paid less to fit Kadri in, but wouldn't have had mid-season cap flexibility without a season ending injury. I think the 1st is better described as being moved to sign Kadri and still be able to get a deadline rental. Still not great in a vacuum, but not terrible.

But balanced against the rest of their summer, I think it makes a lot more sense. The 1st rounder is going to be in 2024-2026 and is going to be a mid-to-late 1st rounder depending on conditions. The 2025 (or maybe 2026) 1st rounder they got in the Tkachuk deal is what made that asset expendable and it very well might be the actual pick sent to Montreal. I'd still have been praising them for the Tkachuk trade if they had sent off Monahan in the deal instead of getting Florida's 1st rounder. If the Tkachuk deal had been a 3 way trade where Montreal got Monahan and Florida's 1st, absolutely no one would have criticized Calgary. The pick they wound up sending Montreal is slightly better than that (the conditions make it fairly likely that Montreal will get one of their picks instead), but the bones of the deal are the same.

Calgary did not get more expensive in the short term. They were above the cap last year and needed Monahan on LTIR to field a compliant roster. They currently have $2.1M in space and will be a bit under the cap if/when they add 2 guys to the roster. And the 'replacements' for Gaudreau and Tkachuk are much cheaper right now. Huberdeau, Kadri, and Weegar cost $3M less than what Gaudreau and Tkachuk cost this year. Even if Gaudreau/Tkachuk had been willing to stay, Calgary would have needed to trade Monahan and clear another few million to fit them. Huberdeau gets more expensive in 2023/24, but him and Kadri will still be making a couple million less than Gaudreau and Tkachuk. With Lucic coming off the books, they can afford a Weegar extension if he is willing to sign.

Again, I'm happy the Blues didn't sign this contract and I think there is a good chance that Kadri underperforms the AAV every year. But in the first few years he shouldn't underperform the AAV by much and should be a good contributor for them. Turning two studs who clearly weren't coming back and a Monahan dump into Huberdeau/Kadri long term at $17.5M and 1 year of Weegar is just not a terrible summer.

I get what you are saying, but overpaying these guys because other folks don't want to play there doesn't seem like winning strategy. Can you realistically see Flames winning Cup during Kadri contract?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I would argue that is more or less what the Blues are doing also.

Edit - didn't see BD's comment, but yeah I agree.

I don't see it that way at all. I think both we are legit contender now, 2nd only to Colorado in West at this point. And also I think we don't have any contracts that are as scary as what Flames just inked. Huberdeau is fine player but 10/5mm? Dang.. and Kadri will be 32 by opening night. He's older than any forward on our roster. Folks here complain about Schenn's contract not aging well, but Schenn is 1 year younger than Kadri, signed for 1 year less, and signed for less per year.

 

[joe galiba]

I think they have enough offense and with their very good D, they can compete for the Cup, but they will need things the REALLY break right for them in the playoffs
for the next year or two, anyway

 

[Brian39]

I get what you are saying, but overpaying these guys because other folks don't want to play there doesn't seem like winning strategy. Can you realistically see Flames winning Cup during Kadri contract?

Absolutely.

What "guys" did they overpay?

Huberdeau isn't at all overpaid. He is paid a lot for a long term, but he is absolutely not overpaid. He was 2nd in scoring last year. He's #4 in scoring over the last 4 NHL seasons, finishing no lower than 13th in any single season. No one besides McDavid has more assists than him during that 4 year timeframe and he led the NHL in assists last season. The Panthers were the league's #1 offense and won the President's Trophy last year. He led them in scoring by 27 points and his 117 point pace was 10 points up on Barkov's pace. That was the 3rd season in a row that he outscored Barkov. He was very much deserving of his 5th place finish in Hart trophy voting. That contract will hurt at the end (as does any non-extreme-discount contract for good players older than 27), but it isn't remotely an overpayment. That is the cost of an elite player and Huberdeau is very much that.

Kadri is an overpayment.

But their overall cap structure is one of the best in the league. As of right now, they have $10.1M in space with 16 guys under contract for 2023/24. If they can't extend Weegar, then he will be their only cap casualty (Valikmaki and Vladar are the only other free agents of any consequence in the summer of 2023 and they are both RFAs that will be easily extended if Weegar walks). If Weegar is extended, then they will need to move a small amount of cap to fill out the rest of the roster, but not a core piece.

And then they only have 6 guys under contract and $45.75M in cap space for 2024/25. They will prioritize re-signing some of the guys hitting free agency, move on from the rest and those decisions will be made in light of how the older core is aging. Their window isn't shutting due to either of these contracts. The window for their current/previous core was shutting 2-3 years from now no matter what and they aren't locked in to a bunch of bad deals that will hinder a rebuild.

I'd put my money on the Blues over the Flames to win the Cup this year, but it isn't by a big margin. If I was putting money on a team to win over the next 3 seasons, I'd pick the Flames over the Blues.

 

[The Note]

I don't see it that way at all. I think both we are legit contender now, 2nd only to Colorado in West at this point. And also I think we don't have any contracts that are as scary as what Flames just inked. Huberdeau is fine player but 10/5mm? Dang.. and Kadri will be 32 by opening night. He's older than any forward on our roster. Folks here complain about Schenn's contract not aging well, but Schenn is 1 year younger than Kadri, signed for 1 year less, and signed for less per year.

I would agree that the Blues don't have any one single contract that has albatross potential like the Hub or Kadri contract -and to be clear I think the Kadri contract is the worst contract on either team, with the potential of being really bad as soon as year 2 - but the Blues have their fair share of contracts that most on here have admitted will be ugly in the back half too. Any one of them in a vacuum is tolerable, but when you have all of Parayko/Schenn/Krug/Faulk/Binnington all signed to deals that are headed to being ugly + a potential ROR deal that would likely fit into that category, that can be just as onerous as having one or two truly awful contracts.

I guess my point is that you have COL as clearly the best team in the west (to a lesser degree than this past year, but I still think they are obviously the best team) then you can choose between STL/EDM, then a whole mix of MIN/CGY/NSH/LA/DAL/VGK. DA has committed money to guys for long term likely knowing the deals will be bad at some point in the near future to keep the AAV down, with the idea being that making the playoffs gives you a shot. I'm sure CGY knows that Kadri deal is ugly and the Huberdeau deal likely will be too, but they see a wide open conference and they're trying to take advantage of it. I don't think the Blues are contenders in the traditional sense but given the fact they are likely - at worst - the third best team in the conference you have to consider them a threat to come out of the west. I think Calgary feels the same way, they're probably the second best team in their division, and are fine overpaying while they feel they have a shot. It's a different path but they are arriving at the same destination as the Blues.

 

[Brian39]

I don't see it that way at all. I think both we are legit contender now, 2nd only to Colorado in West at this point. And also I think we don't have any contracts that are as scary as what Flames just inked. Huberdeau is fine player but 10/5mm? Dang.. and Kadri will be 32 by opening night. He's older than any forward on our roster. Folks here complain about Schenn's contract not aging well, but Schenn is 1 year younger than Kadri, signed for 1 year less, and signed for less per year.

A 31 year old Kadri also scored more points last season than any Blue has since Demitra. His 102 combined regular season and playoff points is exactly 1 fewer than Schenn scored in the last two seasons (in 47 fewer games). Huberdeau has 4 straight seasons scoring at a 90 point pace. Demitra was the last Blue to play at a 90 point pace. I agree that these contracts will likely age worse than any contract the Blues have. But they are also for players who (right now) are producing at levels unseen over the last couple decades in St. Louis. You're wildly downplaying the actual on-ice contributions of these guys because you don't like the contracts.

I agree that Kadri's contract is worse than any contract on the Blues team. But I also think that Schenn, Binner, and Krug would come in at 2nd, 3rd and 4th worst between the two teams. We have substantially more 'bad' money on the books for the next 3-4 years than the Flames do, even if Kadri's deal will hurt. The sum of our scary contracts are a hell of a lot worse than Calgary's.

 

[Majorityof1]

A 31 year old Kadri also scored more points last season than any Blue has since Demitra. His 102 combined regular season and playoff points is exactly 1 fewer than Schenn scored in the last two seasons (in 47 fewer games). Huberdeau has 4 straight seasons scoring at a 90 point pace. Demitra was the last Blue to play at a 90 point pace. I agree that these contracts will likely age worse than any contract the Blues have. But they are also for players who (right now) are producing at levels unseen over the last couple decades in St. Louis. You're wildly downplaying the actual on-ice contributions of these guys because you don't like the contracts.

I agree that Kadri's contract is worse than any contract on the Blues team. But I also think that Schenn, Binner, and Krug would come in at 2nd, 3rd and 4th worst between the two teams. We have substantially more 'bad' money on the books for the next 3-4 years than the Flames do, even if Kadri's deal will hurt. The sum of our scary contracts are a hell of a lot worse than Calgary's.

Agreed. And Schenn's contract has the potential to end up hurting worse. Kadri is 10-months older and his contract has a year more left. So he'll be roughly 2 years older then Schenn will be when his deal ends. Kadri is probably the safe bet to end poorly based on age. But Schenn's style is more likely to drop off further imo. Kadri plays physical, but not in as much of a throw your body around recklessly way as Schenn. Schenn has been made of steel his whole career shrugging off injuries and rarely missing time. But that might catch up to him more and more as he ages.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Absolutely.

What "guys" did they overpay?

Huberdeau isn't at all overpaid. He is paid a lot for a long term, but he is absolutely not overpaid. He was 2nd in scoring last year. He's #4 in scoring over the last 4 NHL seasons, finishing no lower than 13th in any single season. No one besides McDavid has more assists than him during that 4 year timeframe and he led the NHL in assists last season. The Panthers were the league's #1 offense and won the President's Trophy last year. He led them in scoring by 27 points and his 117 point pace was 10 points up on Barkov's pace. That was the 3rd season in a row that he outscored Barkov. He was very much deserving of his 5th place finish in Hart trophy voting. That contract will hurt at the end (as does any non-extreme-discount contract for good players older than 27), but it isn't remotely an overpayment. That is the cost of an elite player and Huberdeau is very much that.

Kadri is an overpayment.

But their overall cap structure is one of the best in the league. As of right now, they have $10.1M in space with 16 guys under contract for 2023/24. If they can't extend Weegar, then he will be their only cap casualty (Valikmaki and Vladar are the only other free agents of any consequence in the summer of 2023 and they are both RFAs that will be easily extended if Weegar walks). If Weegar is extended, then they will need to move a small amount of cap to fill out the rest of the roster, but not a core piece.

And then they only have 6 guys under contract and $45.75M in cap space for 2024/25. They will prioritize re-signing some of the guys hitting free agency, move on from the rest and those decisions will be made in light of how the older core is aging. Their window isn't shutting due to either of these contracts. The window for their current/previous core was shutting 2-3 years from now no matter what and they aren't locked in to a bunch of bad deals that will hinder a rebuild.

I'd put my money on the Blues over the Flames to win the Cup this year, but it isn't by a big margin. If I was putting money on a team to win over the next 3 seasons, I'd pick the Flames over the Blues.

Look around the league at guys making over $10mm annually. How many would you really want on their contracts? McDavid, Matthews, anyone else? Maybe Kane or Panarin. And is Huberdeau really at their level? Last year he put up big numbers, but he's never been close to that level. It's generally never a good idea to pay a guy as if his outlier season is what you should expect going forward (and this holds for Kadri too).

 

[joe galiba]

Look around the league at guys making over $10mm annually. How many would you really want on their contracts? McDavid, Matthews, anyone else? Maybe Kane or Panarin. And is Huberdeau really at their level? Last year he put up big numbers, but he's never been close to that level. It's generally never a good idea to pay a guy as if his outlier season is what you should expect going forward (and this holds for Kadri too).

I agree but the cap might change enough to mitigate some of these contracts
when the Cardinals signed Matt Holliday a lot of people freaked out, but it wound up being a bargain

 

[Frobbo]

Look around the league at guys making over $10mm annually. How many would you really want on their contracts? McDavid, Matthews, anyone else? Maybe Kane or Panarin. And is Huberdeau really at their level? Last year he put up big numbers, but he's never been close to that level. It's generally never a good idea to pay a guy as if his outlier season is what you should expect going forward (and this holds for Kadri too).

As Brian39 said, it really wasn't an outlier season for Huberdeau. I also think Kadri's scoring in the playoffs (when he isn't suspended) gives him a jump in value relative to many.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

As Brian39 said, it really wasn't an outlier season for Huberdeau. I also think Kadri's scoring in the playoffs (when he isn't suspended) gives him a jump in value relative to many.

But it was. He had been around 1.1 pts/game previous 3 years. Last year he was 1.4. That is huge jump. And he will be 30 when his new contract kicks in. It’s not reasonable to expect he will be anywhere near 1.4 pts/ game well into his 30s. I’d be shocked if he hits 1.2/game in this contract and he is likely to be below 1 for most of it. He may still be a fine player, but at that number you expect elite.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

As Brian39 said, it really wasn't an outlier season for Huberdeau. I also think Kadri's scoring in the playoffs (when he isn't suspended) gives him a jump in value relative to many.

And kadri has had more seasons where he was suspended multiple games in playoffs than where he outproduced his regular season pace. He is another guy they are paying off of career year.

 

[Frobbo]

And kadri has had more seasons where he was suspended multiple games in playoffs than where he outproduced his regular season pace. He is another guy they are paying off of career year.

Don't know where you get your info: Kadri is .69 PPG regular season and .85 PPG in playoffs for his career. Spin the numbers anyway you want but when he isn't suspended he produces in the playoffs. It makes his contract much more palatable for Calgary, especially relative to JG and MT's playoff numbers. Just saying...

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Don't know where you get your info: Kadri is .69 PPG regular season and .85 PPG in playoffs for his career. Spin the numbers anyway you want but when he isn't suspended he produces in the playoffs. It makes his contract much more palatable for Calgary, especially relative to JG and MT's playoff numbers. Just saying...

He on,y had 2 playoffs where he produced at all, 1 of which was lower than his regular season. But it’s small sample size because he missed so many games due to suspension other years.

 

[Frenzy31]

A 31 year old Kadri also scored more points last season than any Blue has since Demitra. His 102 combined regular season and playoff points is exactly 1 fewer than Schenn scored in the last two seasons (in 47 fewer games). Huberdeau has 4 straight seasons scoring at a 90 point pace. Demitra was the last Blue to play at a 90 point pace. I agree that these contracts will likely age worse than any contract the Blues have. But they are also for players who (right now) are producing at levels unseen over the last couple decades in St. Louis. You're wildly downplaying the actual on-ice contributions of these guys because you don't like the contracts.

I agree that Kadri's contract is worse than any contract on the Blues team. But I also think that Schenn, Binner, and Krug would come in at 2nd, 3rd and 4th worst between the two teams. We have substantially more 'bad' money on the books for the next 3-4 years than the Flames do, even if Kadri's deal will hurt. The sum of our scary contracts are a hell of a lot worse than Calgary's.

One player is producing at that pace year in year out. THE OTHER HAS NEVER GOTTEN CLOSE TO PPG other than the year before he became a UFA. Does anyone expect that he will do it again. Come on man.

I don't mind Hubie's contract and I really hope Calgary is able to resign Weegar, but. JG, and MTK, going out and Kadri/Hubie coming in (long term atleast) is a down grade. Now adding Weegar may sway that as a positive for Calgary, but if not, then that is a drop in talent at the forward position.

 

[izzy]

hmm, just 1.5

 

[Brian39]

hmm, just 1.5

Good for him and good for the Canes. I'm not sure if he will still have the gas to keep up the 40-50 point pace he keeps clocking, but at this price who cares? This contract is a success for Carolina even if he falls down to being a 30-40 point pace guy who is just solid on the 3rd line. The last few contracts he's signed make it clear that he wants to compete for a Cup and Carolina is a pretty good place to do that this year. Maybe not the ideal destination, but a few of the potential 'better' destinations very well might not have been looking for a 3rd liner without speed.

I'm happy he isn't going to Colorado on a sweetheart deal.

 

[Em etah Eh]

I'm here to defend both Calgary moves as well. On top of team building, as a GM and owner you have to gain the faith of your fanbase. I know it might be easier to fill seats in Canada, but look at what happened in Ottawa under Melnyk. Calgary was trying their damndest to get their 2 studs signed, but they didn't want to come back. The sky was falling in Calgary in one off season after being considered a contender by most.

Many people on these boards (including blues fans) thought Calgary was over a barrel and were going to get pennies on the dollar for Matthew. Well then they go and make a great trade with Florida to pull in a stud center with 1 year left + weeger + first. They gave Huberdeau a blank check essentially, but it was a huge need and they had the money/cap.

Yes, the Kadri deal won't age well, but they are looking to win now, and what were they supposed to do? trade Huberdeau and Weeger off for futures and rebuild with that defense? Both signings were a "F U if you don't want to be here, we are here to win" statement from ownership and I would love it as a flames fan. Also, players around the league don't exactly want to play in Canada these days so the money and term might be higher on these types of signings.

 

[Reality Czech]

I'm here to defend both Calgary moves as well. On top of team building, as a GM and owner you have to gain the faith of your fanbase. I know it might be easier to fill seats in Canada, but look at what happened in Ottawa under Melnyk. Calgary was trying their damndest to get their 2 studs signed, but they didn't want to come back. The sky was falling in Calgary in one off season after being considered a contender by most.

Many people on these boards (including blues fans) thought Calgary was over a barrel and were going to get pennies on the dollar for Matthew. Well then they go and make a great trade with Florida to pull in a stud center with 1 year left + weeger + first. They gave Huberdeau a blank check essentially, but it was a huge need and they had the money/cap.

Yes, the Kadri deal won't age well, but they are looking to win now, and what were they supposed to do? trade Huberdeau and Weeger off for futures and rebuild with that defense? Both signings were a "F U if you don't want to be here, we are here to win" statement from ownership and I would love it as a flames fan. Also, players around the league don't exactly want to play in Canada these days so the money and term might be higher on these types of signings.

I agree with you. Basically the Flames were given two options, play it safe and do a forced 2+ year retool or do as much as they can to salvage a team that was just entering its Cup window. The first choice requires little risk but little reward, but considering the circumstances getting an elite first liner, elite 2C and solid 2D is pretty impressive. Both deals will probably age poorly but that's the cost of competing in the present.

As a Flames fan, I would be a lot more willing to forgive management if they go for it and fall short rather than taking the safe, long-term approach. They are strong in net and on D and should contend for the Pacific crown for the next couple of seasons at least. You also make a strong point that some teams have to "take what they can get" and lock up good players who are willing to come there.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Stastny was eligible for was 35+ contract so somewhat surprised it’s a straight $1.5M with no performance bonuses attached.

The Canes were already good but have now added Patches, Burns and Stastny this off-season but basically nothing. Patches will be out until Feb with the Achilles injury but they’re absolutely a top Cup contender as far as I’m concerned.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Stastny was eligible for was 35+ contract so somewhat surprised it’s a straight $1.5M with no performance bonuses attached.

The Canes were already good but have now added Patches, Burns and Stastny this off-season but basically nothing. Patches will be out until Feb with the Achilles injury but they’re absolutely a top Cup contender as far as I’m concerned.

Canes are really good, but East is much tougher than West. Other than us and Colorado there is nobody in West who measures up to top 8 in East.

 

[izzy]

Canes are really good, but East is much tougher than West. Other than us and Colorado there is nobody in West who measures up to top 8 in East.

They had a rough season but I’d still include Vegas

Be tough without Lehner, but Thompson looked legit last season

 

[Linkens Mastery]

They had a rough season but I’d still include Vegas

Be tough without Lehner, but Thompson looked legit last season

Until they trade for another player and can't field a team when fully healthy because of the Cap.