Around the NHL, Off-Season Edition

[The Note]

Where Monahan is traded?

Montreal it sounds like. Who would then also need to clear out cap.

 

[PJJJP]

So um what are the Islanders doing exactly? They were heavily rumored for Kadri and haven't really done anything to improve their roster besides adding Romanov for the 13th

 

[BlueOil]

What is Colorado working with at center now with Kadri gone?

rantanen probably becomes their 2c

 

[stl76]

7x7 for 32 year old Kadri is going to be a boat anchor contract. I get why the flames wanted to do this, but...yikes

 

[TK 421]

rantanen probably becomes their 2c

I was just reading their board and they're talking about signing Stastny or trading for Dvorak from Mtl. I'd say Ratanen at center is their backup plan if they can't acquire someone else.

Either way I'm glad they lost Kadri, f*** the Avs.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

What is Colorado working with at center now with Kadri gone?

Stastny

 

[Brian39]

Capfriendly is showing $7Mx7 for Kadri. Glad that wasn't my team signing that deal. I'm not surprised by that number, but I also won't be surprised if he is underperforming that AAV for pretty much the entire deal.

I'm not wild about how that may impact ROR's next contract. Early 30s high-end centers have been getting max-term deals into their late 30s for years, so this is nothing new. But it is more proof of concept that teams will still do it in a flat cap world.

I know Kadri had a hell of a season, but he hasn't been anything close to O'Reilly in any other season in his career. I can't imagine ROR has any desire to take less money than Kadri just got on his next deal.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I understand why Calgary had to make a move like that, amd why Kadri needed to go for term with this contract, but I think he’ll be overpaid starting out almost immediately. Calgary this year is going to be an interesting story. Very glad Colorado Didn’t get him back for a 1-2 year discount deal.

 

[Brian39]

Very glad Colorado Didn’t get him back for a 1-2 year discount deal.

Agreed.

I was getting tired of the 'who lost the most' articles leaving out Kadri from Colorado's losses this summer since there was still a chance he could re-sign there. They've got $3.9M in space to fill 1-2 roster spots and I expect that they will at least bring in a cheap vet to shore up the middle 6 for now. I won't be at all surprised if they bank space with the intention to bring in a very well paid deadline 2C rental.

But for now, the losses on paper are pretty substantial for the Avs. Kadri and Burakovsky were their 3rd and 4th highest scoring forwards in the regular season. They absorbed their missed time in the playoffs (Burakovsky missed 8 games while Kadri missed 4) and other guys stepped up to push them down to 6th and 11th in team scoring. Colorado still has a bunch of talent, but losing two guys from the middle 6 is not an insignificant hit.

Kadri took 300+ more draws than anyone else on the Avs this season. He wasn't a stud at the dot (49.7%), but faceoffs are MacKinnon's biggest (and probably only) glaring weakness. Kadri was the guy taking faceoffs on PP1 and the Avs already relied on Landeskog and Rantanen to take 793 faceoffs last season. Compher is good on the dot, but Newhook was abysmal last season (34%).

His departure creates a very real hole at 2C. They were already relying on guys slotted in as career wingers to take a lot of draws even when Kadri was taking 16 or 17 faceoffs a night. I don't think they can rely on a 'faceoffs by committee' approach without Kadri unless they are prepared to fully blow up their lines. You only lke Landy or Rantanen taking draws on their strong side, so you probably need them both on the 2nd line if you're not putting a real center on that line.

Again, I expect them to address the hole and they have a ton of talent to overcome the issue if they don't address it until the trade deadline. But it is a legitimate positional hole that goes beyond simply losing 87 points of production. Add that to Burakovsky and the paper downgrade from a legit NHL starter to a huge unknown and they are starting to look mortal after a dominant season.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Flames got much older very quick this offseason.

 

[BlueDream]

Flames got much older very quick this offseason.

Not that much since Huberdeau and Gaudreau are the same age.

Yes Kadri is older than Tkachuk but if the Flames are entering a win-now window, which it looks like they are, then Kadri is a MUCH better playoff performer than Tkachuk has been (when he's not suspended, of course).

If I want to win a Cup sometime in the next few years, I prefer the tandem of Huberdeau and Kadri to Tkachuk and Gaudreau. This also strengthens Calgary down the middle and can push Backlund to be their 3C instead of their 2C. I'm really interested to see how they do next season. Their goal should be a Cup and I personally like their roster. Their defense got better too with Weegar.

 

[BlueOil]

I understand why Calgary had to make a move like that, amd why Kadri needed to go for term with this contract, but I think he’ll be overpaid starting out almost immediately. Calgary this year is going to be an interesting story. Very glad Colorado Didn’t get him back for a 1-2 year discount deal.

got their lucic replacement locked in until he's nearly 40

 

[BlueMed]

I really wished Kadri went out east because he's still going to be a cheap shot if the Blues run into the flames in the playoffs...

 

[TheDizee]

I really wished Kadri went out east because he's still going to be a cheap shot if the Blues run into the flames in the playoffs...

flames wont be sniffing the playoffs for a while IMO

LA/EDM are on the rise. ANA is not far off and VGK is VGK they have enough talent to take a spot.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I just heard that Huberbeau is going to donate his brain for CTE research.

How’s he gonna be able to play?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Capfriendly is showing $7Mx7 for Kadri. Glad that wasn't my team signing that deal. I'm not surprised by that number, but I also won't be surprised if he is underperforming that AAV for pretty much the entire deal.

I'm not wild about how that may impact ROR's next contract. Early 30s high-end centers have been getting max-term deals into their late 30s for years, so this is nothing new. But it is more proof of concept that teams will still do it in a flat cap world.

I know Kadri had a hell of a season, but he hasn't been anything close to O'Reilly in any other season in his career. I can't imagine ROR has any desire to take less money than Kadri just got on his next deal.

Dealing a 1st to clear space so they can overpay kadri for most of next 7 years is awful. I know flames feel like they need to go for it but this has really been terrible off-season for them. They got older, more expensive, and arguably worse to boot.

 

[joe galiba]

I just heard that Huberbeau is going to donate his brain for CTE research.

How’s he gonna be able to play?

he will play like Kostin now

 

[BlueDream]

Dealing a 1st to clear space so they can overlay kadri for most if next 7 years is awful. I know flames feel like they need to go for it but this has really been terrible off-season fir them. They got older, more expensive, and arguably worse to boot.

How has this been a horrible offseason for them? Not even close.

Flames fans were freaking out that they were about to lose Gaudreau and Tkachuk for nothing in back to back offseasons. Well now they didn’t lose either guy for nothing. They have three really solid players in Huberdeau, Kadri and Weegar to show for it.

The Flames’ issue has been going anywhere in the playoffs, and both Tkachuk and Gaudreau have been major reasons for that because they haven’t been good enough in the postseason. What would Calgary have accomplished by retaining those two and running it back with the same roster? Losing two wingers isn’t going to destroy your team when you just got better defensively and down the middle of the ice - both more important positions in the playoffs. I applaud them for going in a different direction and making changes, especially when they were in a tough spot and came out of it just fine.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

How has this been a horrible offseason for them? Not even close.

Flames fans were freaking out that they were about to lose Gaudreau and Tkachuk for nothing in back to back offseasons. Well now they didn’t lose either guy for nothing. They have three really solid players in Huberdeau, Kadri and Weegar to show for it.

The Flames’ issue has been going anywhere in the playoffs, and both Tkachuk and Gaudreau have been major reasons for that because they haven’t been good enough in the postseason. What would Calgary have accomplished by retaining those two and running it back with the same roster? Losing two wingers isn’t going to destroy your team when you just got better defensively and down the middle of the ice - both more important positions in the playoffs. I applaud them for going in a different direction and making changes, especially when they were in a tough spot and came out of it just fine.

Huberdeau is nice replacement for Gaudreau, but Tkachuk is much better player than Kadri. And they give up Tkachuk prime for Kadri decline. Not good.

As to playoffs, those stats are such small sample. Tkachuk is type of player who you want in playoffs, regardless of what some 20 game sample says.

 

[The Note]

At least with Huberdeau you are getting a guy who has been above PPG for multiple years now, and while his point totals last year may be a bit of an outlier, I would feel pretty good about penciling him in for ~30 goals and 90+ points for the next couple of years assuming he plays close to 82 games. His contract will be tough in the back half but at least he is an elite point producer. Turning Tkachuk into Hub and Weegar, when Tkachuk was clearly out the door anyway, is a good bit of business. The Kadri contract is awful and an obvious example of overpaying for a guy who - while a good and valuable player in his own right - overachieved on one of the best teams in recent memory. It's the exact contract everyone will be looking back on in 3 years and wondering how the hell they are going to get out of it.

If Calgary feels like they have to go for it, I don't really agree but, more power to them. I think they'll likely be good again and are probably in that mix of teams along with NSH/VGK/MIN where I don't think they're really contenders but given the state of the rest of the conference after COL, they're probably thinking they are right there.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

At least with Huberdeau you are getting a guy who has been above PPG for multiple years now, and while his point totals last year may be a bit of an outlier, I would feel pretty good about penciling him in for ~30 goals and 90+ points for the next couple of years assuming he plays close to 82 games. His contract will be tough in the back half but at least he is an elite point producer. Turning Tkachuk into Hub and Weegar, when Tkachuk was clearly out the door anyway, is a good bit of business. The Kadri contract is awful and an obvious example of overpaying for a guy who - while a good and valuable player in his own right - overachieved on one of the best teams in recent memory. It's the exact contract everyone will be looking back on in 3 years and wondering how the hell they are going to get out of it.

If Calgary feels like they have to go for it, I don't really agree but, more power to them. I think they'll likely be good again and are probably in that mix of teams along with NSH/VGK/MIN where I don't think they're really contenders but given the state of the rest of the conference after COL, they're probably thinking they are right there.

And that’s the rub. They will be pretty good this year but likely not really contender. And they are set up to get progressively worse in coming years while hugely overpaying aging guys.

 

[BlueDream]

And that’s the rub. They will be pretty good this year but likely not really contender. And they are set up to get progressively worse in coming years while hugely overpaying aging guys.

They are doing the exact same thing the Blues are doing.

 

[Brian39]

Dealing a 1st to clear space so they can overpay kadri for most of next 7 years is awful. I know flames feel like they need to go for it but this has really been terrible off-season for them. They got older, more expensive, and arguably worse to boot.

I don't think the 1st to move Monahan was just so that they could sign Kadri. It also leaves them with a cap cushion of $300k-$600k or so if they run a 23 man roster (more if they run 22 guys for stretches to bank cap space). They should wind up with enough banked space to bring in a good rental at the deadline if they want to go that route.

They probably could have paid less to fit Kadri in, but wouldn't have had mid-season cap flexibility without a season ending injury. I think the 1st is better described as being moved to sign Kadri and still be able to get a deadline rental. Still not great in a vacuum, but not terrible.

But balanced against the rest of their summer, I think it makes a lot more sense. The 1st rounder is going to be in 2024-2026 and is going to be a mid-to-late 1st rounder depending on conditions. The 2025 (or maybe 2026) 1st rounder they got in the Tkachuk deal is what made that asset expendable and it very well might be the actual pick sent to Montreal. I'd still have been praising them for the Tkachuk trade if they had sent off Monahan in the deal instead of getting Florida's 1st rounder. If the Tkachuk deal had been a 3 way trade where Montreal got Monahan and Florida's 1st, absolutely no one would have criticized Calgary. The pick they wound up sending Montreal is slightly better than that (the conditions make it fairly likely that Montreal will get one of their picks instead), but the bones of the deal are the same.

Calgary did not get more expensive in the short term. They were above the cap last year and needed Monahan on LTIR to field a compliant roster. They currently have $2.1M in space and will be a bit under the cap if/when they add 2 guys to the roster. And the 'replacements' for Gaudreau and Tkachuk are much cheaper right now. Huberdeau, Kadri, and Weegar cost $3M less than what Gaudreau and Tkachuk cost this year. Even if Gaudreau/Tkachuk had been willing to stay, Calgary would have needed to trade Monahan and clear another few million to fit them. Huberdeau gets more expensive in 2023/24, but him and Kadri will still be making a couple million less than Gaudreau and Tkachuk. With Lucic coming off the books, they can afford a Weegar extension if he is willing to sign.

Again, I'm happy the Blues didn't sign this contract and I think there is a good chance that Kadri underperforms the AAV every year. But in the first few years he shouldn't underperform the AAV by much and should be a good contributor for them. Turning two studs who clearly weren't coming back and a Monahan dump into Huberdeau/Kadri long term at $17.5M and 1 year of Weegar is just not a terrible summer.

 

[Brian39]

flames wont be sniffing the playoffs for a while IMO

LA/EDM are on the rise. ANA is not far off and VGK is VGK they have enough talent to take a spot.

They have by far the best D group in the Pacific. With Sutter at the helm, I think this D group is comfortably top 5 in the NHL.

They have arguably the best goalie in the division. I love Thatcher Demko, but I think Markstrom is the top dog until Demko takes that title from him. Markstrom was 2nd in Vezina voting last year and has been top 5 in two of the last 3 seasons. Vegas has a career backup and a guy with less than 25 NHL games as their goalies. Edmonton has put their chips on Jack Campbell. The Kings are banking on a 37 year old Quick staying strong and/or Petersen having a bounce-back season. The Ducks are continuing to hope Gibson can put together a consistent season for the first time since 2018/19. Seattle and San Jose were dumpster fires in net (and as teams) last year and are barely worth mentioning.

They allowed 25 fewer goals than the next best defensive team in the Pacific last year. That gap is larger than the gap between #2 and #5 in the Pacific. And they added a #2 D man. Even assuming that they allow another 15-20 goals because they can't replicate the possession dominance of the 1st line, they are still going to be the best defensive team in the division and probably by a decent margin.

And they are still pretty damn good up front too. They are returning last year's Selke-runner-up who had 42 goals, a 35 goal scorer in Mangiapane, and a 20-25 goal guy in Toffoli. They brought in a 115 point player and an 87 point player who was on a 100 point pace. I don't know that the offense will be quite as potent as last year's 6th best offense, but it certainly isn't going to be bad.

The middle of the pack in the Pacific is absolutely on the rise, but I don't think they have much chance at catching Calgary this year. Calgary should still be a 100 point team even if the offense sees large regression. Huberdeau is 4th in the NHL in scoring over the last 4 seasons and he hasn't finished lower than 13th in any of those seasons. His line is absolutely going to be really damn good. Lindholm-Kadri down the middle is a pretty damn good top 6 center situation and they've got some good winger pieces to put around them in addition to Huberdeau. Depth scoring is still an issue, but Sutter basically just wants his 3rd line to play defense and call it a day. The offense isn't going to be bad.

The middle of that pack will probably catch them in the medium-term, but I don't see it this year.

 

[WeWentBlues]

If I were a Calgary fan, I'd be thrilled with how this whole mess turned out. I think they are overall a better team on paper than they were last year.