Hunter Gathers
The Crown
Okay, but this can possibly be a short-sighted approach.
There are teams that can overacheive and underacheive in a given season. The Wild last year were the top team in the league by the end of the December, while having the worst possession ratings in the league at the team. They fell off a cliff later on in that season. No stat is perfect out there, but I feel this one is the most accurate to evaluate players and teams.
So all teams can overachieve except the Devils when they beat us since that was clearly not an outlier of a season. Got it.