Championship*
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Of course there are no guarantees but the biggest reason that we lost to the Devils was that we ran out of gas from being stuck in drawn out low scoring series with the Sens and Caps. Giroux's offense might have helped us get through those series more easily.
In a vacuum yes, but the chances of everything happening exactly the way they did after they would have drafted him are Infinitesimally small. In fact, it's an absolute certainty that the course of events would have been different. You could say that about any player. How about "if the ping pong balls bounced the right way and we drafted crosby in 05"? We probably would have won it if we had him on the team as well, but that only happens in a Vacuum. We draft Crosby and the whole thing changes even FURTHER.
Who knows if Giroux would have even developed in the Rangers system. Maybe they would have traded him. Or maybe they win the cup in 08. Who knows. The only thing that is certain is that you can't look at these things in a vacuum. Our failure to reach the finals/win the cup in '12 was not due to our not drafting of Giroux.