Around the NHL - Episode XLV III - BEAST MODE ANDY

[Senscore]

Well good news he's a UFA at the end of the year and we can go after him again.

 

[Six Assets]

Sure, he's streaky. On the flip side, in the other 57 games he played for us he scored 28 goals.

he had a career stretch over 29 games where he scored 20 goals. he won't be repeating that again.

I liked Duclair, but he had no long term future here

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

He was exciting to watch. Electric. I wish we found a way.

 

[Micklebot]

he had a career stretch over 29 games where he scored 20 goals. he won't be repeating that again.

I liked Duclair, but he had no long term future here

He scored 8 in 21 when he arrived, that's a 30 goal pace, then 10 in the first 23 to stay the next season before having that ultra hot streak prior to the cold stretch. He is unlikely to replicate that 11 goals in 9 games stretch midway through last year nor that 3 goals in 30 stretch to finish it off, but he can put up 20 some odd goals a season, kill penalties and add speed to a lineup. Nothing wrong with that.

He didn't need to have a long term future to be a useful player worth being re-signed, we might be better off with him over Dadonov for example. Now that all relies on him wanting to sign here at a reasonable price, or I guess us taking him to arbitration and only getting one year.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Too many people treat players who leave doing well like a "hot girl that got away".

The hot ones aren't always the best ones.

Good for Duclair, we didn't really need him anymore.

 

[JungleBeat]

The

Panthers

are

winning

with

Anthony

Duclair

Yeah but he’s only getting paid $1m so it doesn’t matter... lol.

 

[DueDiligence]

Duke's got 24 points in 34 games playing limited minutes with almost none on the PP. He's also just 25 and in his prime. How can anyone argue we shouldn't have tried harder to keep him around and forgot all about old man Dadonov?

Dadonov got a lot of points playing for the Panthers ; that's why he got signed by the Sens. Who's to say if Duclair would be having the same season as last year if he was still on the Sens but at $1.7 million he would have been worth the try. Unfortunately he wanted more than that.

 

[DueDiligence]

Sure, he's streaky. On the flip side, in the other 57 games he played for us he scored 28 goals.

Yes but the rest of career he under achieved based on his skill level. If a team signs him to a 3 or 4 year deal this summer would you be confident he would produce for the full length?

 

[BankStreetParade]

I truly find the "he isn't a player you can win with" the latest argument you can find in sports. It seems to apply to players until it doesn't, Gaborik isn't the kind of player you win with, until he goes to the king's and wins, Kessel isn't the type of player you win with, until he wins with the pens, Yzerman wasn't the type of player you win with early in his career, Hossa was criticised for the same, and the list goes on.

The reality is you need all sorts of players to win, rarely do you see one guy that does it all and you certainly don't see a team built solely of those guys.

Duke is what he is, a depth scorer that can be streaky, play up or down the lineup, and can penalty kill. He isn't particularly physical nor is he a defensive stud but he will contribute when given the opportunity that suits his skillset.

I think he misjudged his worth, and hurt himself by acting as his own agent. I suspect He probably could have found a better deal had he used an agent, they would have helped him understand the market and price himself accordingly, instead teams went a different direction and the market dried up before he could adjust his ask to be inline with how teams valued him

This fanbase said the same thing about Spezza. Others said the same about Luongo. And Marleau. And Subban. That list goes on too.

If I defer to the people who analyze this game professionally, the most logical conclusion I would reach regarding Duclair is that his perceived value on this site does not match that of NHL teams. 'Smart' GMs and 'dumb' GMs alike passed on this guy and he ended up settling for less than many below average players got signed for. The argument that this year was different and there wasn't the type of spending we usually see is pretty inconclusive but mostly pointing towards that not being the case.

For some reason, this forum has a fanatical obsession with players who leave. This very thread and its predecessors are full of updates on all types of players who no longer play for this team. Marginal players, for the most part, who's names always seem to ping in here when they've had a half-decent stat line.

The very player we're discussing was basically a throw-in on a trade (from Columbus to Ottawa) for a pending UFA (Dzingel).

I don't know how much clearer NHL teams have to be when it comes to Duclair and his value around the league. He's on his 6th team now and he had to wait until the end of the free agency period to get a lousy 1 year deal for peanuts compared to what other 20+ goal scorers get paid.

At least the Gaboriks and Kessels and Hossas of the world were paid well and consistently. Those guys never had problems cashing in. Then the only logical conclusion to assume about Duclair is that his value to NHL teams is far from what it is on this forum. Maybe next year will be different but I'm guessing probably not.

 

[JungleBeat]

This fanbase said the same thing about Spezza. Others said the same about Luongo. And Marleau. And Subban. That list goes on too.

If I defer to the people who analyze this game professionally, the most logical conclusion I would reach regarding Duclair is that his perceived value on this site does not match that of NHL teams. 'Smart' GMs and 'dumb' GMs alike passed on this guy and he ended up settling for less than many below average players got signed for. The argument that this year was different and there wasn't the type of spending we usually see is pretty inconclusive but mostly pointing towards that not being the case.

For some reason, this forum has a fanatical obsession with players who leave. This very thread and its predecessors are full of updates on all types of players who no longer play for this team. Marginal players, for the most part, who's names always seem to ping in here when they've had a half-decent stat line.

The very player we're discussing was basically a throw-in on a trade (from Columbus to Ottawa) for a pending UFA (Dzingel).

I don't know how much clearer NHL teams have to be when it comes to Duclair and his value around the league. He's on his 6th team now and he had to wait until the end of the free agency period to get a lousy 1 year deal for peanuts compared to what other 20+ goal scorers get paid.

At least the Gaboriks and Kessels and Hossas of the world were paid well and consistently. Those guys never had problems cashing in. Then the only logical conclusion to assume about Duclair is that his value to NHL teams is far from what it is on this forum. Maybe next year will be different but I'm guessing probably not.

Still better than Dadanov.

 

[Micklebot]

This fanbase said the same thing about Spezza. Others said the same about Luongo. And Marleau. And Subban. That list goes on too.

If I defer to the people who analyze this game professionally, the most logical conclusion I would reach regarding Duclair is that his perceived value on this site does not match that of NHL teams. 'Smart' GMs and 'dumb' GMs alike passed on this guy and he ended up settling for less than many below average players got signed for. The argument that this year was different and there wasn't the type of spending we usually see is pretty inconclusive but mostly pointing towards that not being the case.

For some reason, this forum has a fanatical obsession with players who leave. This very thread and its predecessors are full of updates on all types of players who no longer play for this team. Marginal players, for the most part, who's names always seem to ping in here when they've had a half-decent stat line.

The very player we're discussing was basically a throw-in on a trade (from Columbus to Ottawa) for a pending UFA (Dzingel).

I don't know how much clearer NHL teams have to be when it comes to Duclair and his value around the league. He's on his 6th team now and he had to wait until the end of the free agency period to get a lousy 1 year deal for peanuts compared to what other 20+ goal scorers get paid.

At least the Gaboriks and Kessels and Hossas of the world were paid well and consistently. Those guys never had problems cashing in. Then the only logical conclusion to assume about Duclair is that his value to NHL teams is far from what it is on this forum. Maybe next year will be different but I'm guessing probably not.

There's a lot of appeal to authority and very little other support to your claim. But hey, since you seem to value appeals to authority, his coach values him enough to play him 15+ mins a night on one of the top teams this year where he's got the 5th best pts/gp with minimal PP time. Sounds like they're getting great value out of him, and likely pretty happy about it.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

The problem with Duclair is the same it's always been. He needs that fire under his butt to get the best out of him. If he had stayed here, he would've demanded a multi-year contract...and that contract security pours hot water over that fire.

 

[BankStreetParade]

There's a lot of appeal to authority and very little other support to your claim. But hey, since you seem to value appeals to authority, his coach values him enough to play him 15+ mins a night on one of the top teams this year where he's got the 5th best pts/gp with minimal PP time. Sounds like they're getting great value out of him, and likely pretty happy about it.

Appeal to authority is the Ryder+Halak+2nd of fallacy arguments - way overused and bordering on comedy. Disagree with someone's argument? Spring for the appeal to authority argument.

Anyway, I've never said the Panthers aren't getting great value out of him (on his current contract) nor have I said he's a bad player (as insinuated by someone else). What I have been saying is that his value around the league to the people who actually build teams appears to be significantly lower than his value on this forum. If Duclair was the player people say he was, he would have an extension with term and more dollars than he does today.

 

[DrEasy]

Well good news he's a UFA at the end of the year and we can go after him again.

Why would he come back to a bottom-dwelling team that had a critical need for skill and still didn't even bother to qualify him?

Conversely, why would a team that didn't bother to keep him when they could would suddenly value him enough to pursue him in free agency?

 

[Senscore]

Why would he come back to a bottom-dwelling team that had a critical need for skill and still didn't even bother to qualify him?

Conversely, why would a team that didn't bother to keep him when they could would suddenly value him enough to pursue him in free agency?

I'm just saying for all the talk about how he's so indispensable now, he will probably be an available free agent at the end of the season.

 

[bacon25]

Duke is killing it and it’s become apparent we should have found a way to keep him instead of signing Dadanov. I hope the huberdeau argument isn’t consistently brought up for duke, that guy scored 20+ goals on an offensively challenged sens team last year without huberdeau

Correct me if I am wrong, but I though Ottawa gave him an offer and he turned it down. Then Duclair went to Florida for less on a show-me contract long after everyone else had signed free agents. Any other team could have had this guy, but it seems like he kinda choose to be in Florida. And yes, he did score 20 and was hot for a few months, but we forget he also went cold in the back half of the season.

 

[Micklebot]

Appeal to authority is the Ryder+Halak+2nd of fallacy arguments - way overused and bordering on comedy. Disagree with someone's argument? Spring for the appeal to authority argument.

Anyway, I've never said the Panthers aren't getting great value out of him (on his current contract) nor have I said he's a bad player (as insinuated by someone else). What I have been saying is that his value around the league to the people who actually build teams appears to be significantly lower than his value on this forum. If Duclair was the player people say he was, he would have an extension with term and more dollars than he does today.

If you had support for your position other than an appeal to authority, maybe I could address those too,

Here's the cold reality though, he is outperforming his current contract, and has been doing so ever since he was first given a greater role with the sens, you admitted as much, which suggests that the numerous authoritative figures who passed on him did not accurately evaluate his value.

 

[Xspyrit]

Brannstrom's goal on Rittich one of the worst I've seen in a while too

You guys must have missed this one :



Helly is considered the best goalie in the NHL with Vasi

Or this one :



An all-time great, one of the worst GA because seriously, it's his cockiness that scored lol

Duke's got 24 points in 34 games playing limited minutes with almost none on the PP. He's also just 25 and in his prime. How can anyone argue we shouldn't have tried harder to keep him around and forgot all about old man Dadonov?

Another wrong personnel decision. Should have just overpaid him on a short term contract. Dadonov looked like a great signing but as fans we get tricked by thinking "cool we're getting this good player" but we are not thinking into the future about how the player will mesh with the team, what will be his role, who is going to play with and how efficient will he be able to be.

Why dont we do that? Well, because it's not our freaking job, it should be our team's GM with the help of his pro scouting department.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[BankStreetParade]

If you had support for your position other than an appeal to authority, maybe I could address those too,

Here's the cold reality though, he is outperforming his current contract, and has been doing so ever since he was first given a greater role with the sens, you admitted as much, which suggests that the numerous authoritative figures who passed on him did not accurately evaluate his value.

I already posted a couple of times that there's a nice, long list of players who scored 20+ last year available on capfriendly and that Duclair is at the bottom of the range of cap hit and term. Here it is linked below:

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

That's a pretty solid position. He's one of the only guys in the league to score 20+ (excluding ELCs) who's making less than $3 million per year, with the vast majority of that list (66 of 87) making over $4 million.

I've also provided examples of guys many would consider to be worse players who signed for more (Namestnikov, Eakins) or who got term and dollars (Toffoli) or guys coming off career worst years who still got a bigger payday (Barrie).

All I've seen so far as a counterargument is "he's producing in Florida". So what? Production and value don't always line up and this forum is notoriously bad at evaluating players. There's loads of guys in the league who people on this forum say "don't produce" who are more valued by NHL teams than guys like Duclair.

Calling it an appeal to authority is to diminish and dismiss the expertise of the people who are paid to assemble teams. Yet many posters in here would gladly welcome Yzerman's authority as a GM or Sakic's or any of the other top GMs. We don't get to have it both ways - we can't simultaneously dismiss their opinions and also praise them for it.

 

[Big Muddy]

Even Yzerman went out and signed Namestnikov to 2yrs/$4 million but wasn't interested Duclair? Buffalo went out and got Cody Eakin at $2.25 million x 2 years. Tyson Barrie had one of the worst years of his career and still got $3.75 million. Just a few examples which don't include all the guys who still got dollars and term in free agency.

Yes, seems like the COVID economics pushed the $s and terms down on a number of players' contracts. Some people seem to argue that it didn't.

 

[Big Muddy]

Appeal to authority is the Ryder+Halak+2nd of fallacy arguments - way overused and bordering on comedy. Disagree with someone's argument? Spring for the appeal to authority argument.
.

You make it sound like everybody (or almost everybody) uses this argument all the time (or most of the time) there is a disagreement. That's not true and is far from the truth.

 

[Micklebot]

I already posted a couple of times that there's a nice, long list of players who scored 20+ last year available on capfriendly and that Duclair is at the bottom of the range of cap hit and term. Here it is linked below:

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

That's a pretty solid position. He's one of the only guys in the league to score 20+ (excluding ELCs) who's making less than $3 million per year, with the vast majority of that list (66 of 87) making over $4 million.

I've also provided examples of guys many would consider to be worse players who signed for more (Namestnikov, Eakins) or who got term and dollars (Toffoli) or guys coming off career worst years who still got a bigger payday (Barrie).

All I've seen so far as a counterargument is "he's producing in Florida". So what? Production and value don't always line up and this forum is notoriously bad at evaluating players. There's loads of guys in the league who people on this forum say "don't produce" who are more valued by NHL teams than guys like Duclair.

Calling it an appeal to authority is to diminish and dismiss the expertise of the people who are paid to assemble teams. Yet many posters in here would gladly welcome Yzerman's authority as a GM or Sakic's or any of the other top GMs. We don't get to have it both ways - we can't simultaneously dismiss their opinions and also praise them for it.

The problem is other players signing doesn't mean there was no interest, Duclair may have been holding out for too much, and then saw the market collapse and have to settle for less than the original offers. Pretty sure, for example, that Dorion mentioned he'd still consider Duclair after we signed Dadonov, but it seems likely it would not be at the same rate as before. You come at this with assumptions that may not be at all valid and then draw conclusions about what other teams think about him. The only thing we know for sure is he wasn't willing to sign for what teams were offering until the market had dried up. We don't know how that impacted the subsequent offers such as the one he eventually accepted. So once we recognize the assumptions are not set in stone as fact, we are left with an appeal to authority that may be equally invalid.

 

[NyQuil]

Yeah, I really don't think Duclair could be had here for what he signed in Florida.

It's the same for Turris and it's the same for Boro.

 

[Micklebot]

Yeah, I really don't think Duclair could be had here for what he signed in Florida.

It's the same for Turris and it's the same for Boro.

Well, that seems like a given. we apparently offered him a raise, Wally thought it was 4-5 based on a solid source, though Duclair denied he was offered 4.25 x 3.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think he was shopping himself in that range initially though and had to settle for less when the openings around the league filled up. Can't say for sure, but it makes sense that a guy representing himself might misjudge the market and pass on resonable offers only to realize too late that he needs to adjust his ask.