Around the NHL 2024-2025

[PJJJP]

Damn the Rangers suck. Don't know how a team with that talent collapses. Maybe we can pick up Miller even if he is having a rough season

 

[Reality Czech]

The last time Binner led our team in SV% was the 2020/21 COVID season during Husso's rookie year.

Since the start of the 2021/22 season Binner has a .902 SV% through 182 games played. Blues goalies not named Jordan Binnington have a .912 SV% through 118 games played during that same time frame. That's a 10 point SV% gap over (just shy of) a 3.5 year sample. I'm going to type that out again because it is something I don't think many would have expected.

Over the team's last 284 games, Binner's SV% is .902 while all other Blues goalies have a combined .912 SV%. The other Blues goalies in that stretch were Husso, Greiss, Lindgren, Gillies, and Hofer.

Binner had his first disappointing regular season in 2021/22, but Ville Husso did in fact overcome our defensive deficiencies that season. He put up a .919 SV% (compared to Binner's .901), took the net from Binner for the 2nd half of the season, had a +15 GSAA, and got Vezina votes. Greiss had a better SV% (.896) than Binner (.894) in 2022/23. Hofer was noticeably better at .905, but the sample was only 6 games. We're very early into Hofer's career, but he had a (very, very slightly) higher SV% than Binner last season and is currently performing pretty damn well behind the same D that Binner is currently struggling behind. It's only a 43 game sample that he's been here full-time (and 6 games the year before), but he is very much overcoming the defensive deficiencies.

I don't think that Binner's stats are perfectly reflective of his performance, but we can't use the 'no one could succeed behind this team' argument when he has had multiple teammates find success. There are consistency issues that can't just be hand-waved away by citing the poor team defense.

Edit: I totally agree with @Xerloris point about the workload. That absolutely has an impact on this and I very much believe that we need to start playing Hofer much more frequently. But I do not believe that it is all workload.

Your argument only holds weight if you believe save percentage always gives an accurate representation of the "best" goalie. How do we know Hofer wouldn't have struggled with consistency if he had been given more starts? I'd also argue that backup goalies in general get the easier starts compared to the starter.

There are plenty of people like Gretzky and Fuhr who don't think you can judge a goalie solely on his GAA and sv% and I agree with them. The fact that Greiss had a slightly better sv% than Binnington proves the flaw because no one thinks Greiss was the better goalie. Husso managed to put up much better stats than Binner for a few months but once again, no one would call him the better goalie overall. The playoffs that year proved that as well as his play since that one season.

Obviously there is no perfect science to determine which goalie is better than another, but I'd be curious to see a goalie's stats in close games and important games. Who cares if a goalie lets up a soft goal to make it 5-1 instead of 4-1? What's important is how they play when it matters most.

 

[Majorityof1]

Your argument only holds weight if you believe save percentage always gives an accurate representation of the "best" goalie. How do we know Hofer wouldn't have struggled with consistency if he had been given more starts? I'd also argue that backup goalies in general get the easier starts compared to the starter.

There are plenty of people like Gretzky and Fuhr who don't think you can judge a goalie solely on his GAA and sv% and I agree with them. The fact that Greiss had a slightly better sv% than Binnington proves the flaw because no one thinks Greiss was the better goalie. Husso managed to put up much better stats than Binner for a few months but once again, no one would call him the better goalie overall. The playoffs that year proved that as well as his play since that one season.

Obviously there is no perfect science to determine which goalie is better than another, but I'd be curious to see a goalie's stats in close games and important games. Who cares if a goalie lets up a soft goal to make it 5-1 instead of 4-1? What's important is how they play when it matters most.

Natural stat trick lets you sort by game score (tied, leading, trailing, within 1). The goalie stats between Hofer and Binnington this year and last during 5v5 when the game is within 1 (up 1 goal, tied, down 1 goal):

Binnington: .913 save %,, 2.65 GAA, -0.15 GSAA/60
Hofer: .929 save percentage, 2.16 GAA, +0.33 GSAA/60

So, Hofer is better across all stats when within 1 goal games behind the same defense. You can make an argument obviously that Binnington gets the harder usage, for sure. But that is what a $6M starter is supposed to get.

 

[Canucks LB]

Q&A: Canucks GM Patrik Allvin expects more from top players in 2025

In 2024, the Canucks have given their fans much to be thankful for — but, they've also failed many nights to play to their standard. Iain MacIntyre sits down with GM Patrik Allvin to discuss why the team has struggled with consistency and reflect on the season thus far.

www.sportsnet.ca

This is absolutely blowing up in Vancouver right now by the way.
Looks like Pettersson is available
Allvin went on blast basically, Not sure what you guys would offer, or how seriously you would be interested, He would obviously need a Haul.
But, just thought I would share and get your guys opinions!
Not everyday a 90+ Center with great Defensive abilities becomes available.

Thoughts?

 

[Majorityof1]

Q&A: Canucks GM Patrik Allvin expects more from top players in 2025

In 2024, the Canucks have given their fans much to be thankful for — but, they've also failed many nights to play to their standard. Iain MacIntyre sits down with GM Patrik Allvin to discuss why the team has struggled with consistency and reflect on the season thus far.

www.sportsnet.ca

This is absolutely blowing up in Vancouver right now by the way.
Looks like Pettersson is available
Allvin went on blast basically, Not sure what you guys would offer, or how seriously you would be interested, He would obviously need a Haul.
But, just thought I would share and get your guys opinions!
Not everyday a 90+ Center with great Defensive abilities becomes available.

Thoughts?

I don't see how we make the cap work for a mid-season trade. We have some LTIR to work with on the Krug injury, but EP has a huge AAV. If we moved dead cap it would drive up the cost.

It would probably have to be something around Kyrou+ to make sense. We aren't trading Thomas. So that leaves Buch and Kyrou as positive assets with significant cap. I have a feeling we couldn't agree on the +. I bet I value Kyrou a lot more than Vancouver. fans.

 

[Canucks LB]

I don't see how we make the cap work for a mid-season trade. We have some LTIR to work with on the Krug injury, but EP has a huge AAV. If we moved dead cap it would drive up the cost.

It would probably have to be something around Kyrou+ to make sense. We aren't trading Thomas. So that leaves Buch and Kyrou as positive assets with significant cap. I have a feeling we couldn't agree on the +. I bet I value Kyrou a lot more than Vancouver. fans.

Yeah without Thomas in the deal, doubt it would work out.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

I would offer Kyrou, Texiera(cap purposes), and Dvorsky
For
Petey and Willander

 

[Coffee]

I would offer Kyrou, Texiera(cap purposes), and Dvorsky
For
Petey and Willander

Interesting but let’s be real the Canucks aren’t trading Willander.

 

[StlBigFly]

Petey is hard to gauge. I’m basing all this on the things Elliot Friedman has said about the situation.

I really have a hard time understanding how a team can sign a franchise center to a 90+ mil contract then have their 2C harass him to “make him meaner”. I mean a little of that stuff is whatever, but this is beyond a little bit of it.

Miller made this worse leaving then being sheepish about why he was out. At the same time all these stories start. Homie you’re a public figure, I’m sorry about that part, but it is what it is, you can’t be a coward like that. Dude gets his privacy but he’s at the center of a major team issue and leaving for Month followed by “no comment” is an awful look.

I feel there’s more to the story because at face value it seems absurd and as if everybody in vancouvers front office should be worried about their job security. If there is nothing else to the story than the team asking miller to harass Petey to make him meaner, and it’s gone this far, ya gotta trade the guy now. You can’t go to war with your own guy.

Why would you lock up a guy you didn’t like to such an important role and long term deal? Why would you allow a multi year harassment-lite campaign against him from inside the room? Was there going to be a time you were going to let the guy you gave 92 million dollars just be himself? Why are you letting your coach and gm talk about this?

Could you imagine if - when we wanted a meaner Parayko - if we had just told the team to harass him nonstop. Just horrible problem solving from Vancouver.

Maybe Petey has a serious issue and this is all deserved? Or maybe not. Maybe he’s fine and the rest of them are ridiculous.

If we can rip off the canucks then my vote would be go for it, everything available except Thomas. Find the deal - Petey is transcendent offensively.

But I’d guess other teams would be better options. I’d guess a team that is not currently at the cap is a good trading partner - somebody with a center based hockey trade maybe. Vegas likes new shiny things and I don’t even need to look at their cap to know: they’ll find a way if they want to…the Sabres, Wings, Utahns all have the firepower to deal…Rossi for Petey maybe? Hurricanes probably won’t stop calling. Lafrenierre for Petey? Horvat redemption tour? It’s a real good fit for the Predators and Stars…

Still, I’d join the bidding war. Never know when one of Vancouvers decision makers gets the inspiration to covet something that isn’t currently his.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

Without looking much into it, I’m just amazed they’d rather trade the prime 20 something instead of the 30 something.

 

[Majorityof1]

Yeah without Thomas in the deal, doubt it would work out.

Makes no sense to trade Thomas. EP is the better player but not by much and costs $3.5M more.

EP showed 100 point pace 1 year. Last year he was 90 point pace, this year he's struggling. Thomas is a ppg C who is also tremendous defensively, really under-rated, at a $8.125 cap hit. Last year was 3 point difference, and this year they are even in points with Thomas having missed several games with injury. Defense is probably close to a wash as well.

I honestly don't trade Thomas straight up for EP without serious retention. That's not to say EP isn't worth his deal but that Thomas' deal is a steal, so why trade that away. There is not a single Blues fan who would agree to move Thomas.

 

[MissouriMook]

How do we know Hofer wouldn't have struggled with consistency if he had been given more starts?

You could just as easily argue that he would have more consistency with more regular playing time. I believe that there was at least one instance this season where he went over 10 days without seeing any game action.

 

[PocketNines]

Yeah without Thomas in the deal, doubt it would work out.

Quick & easy no. Also, since it sounds like he's more valuable than Thomas, keep him. You already won in the past by getting Petterson and not Thomas, why screw with it now?

"We have a disaster on our hands but we can fix it, we'll just trade one of these players for the best offensive player a team below us in the standings has"

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I don't want anything to do with that contract 11.5m with a NMC and signing bonuses up the wazoo

 

[Xerloris]

You could just as easily argue that he would have more consistency with more regular playing time. I believe that there was at least one instance this season where he went over 10 days without seeing any game action.

that line of thinking is nearly always wrong and you can track that across multiple sports. The more you play/do the lower your average gets until it reaches your real worth. batting avg in baseball, shooting % in basketball, goaltending in hockey, etc etc. ofcourse there are outliers like the truly elite players but that's not Hofer. He's very very good, not elite.

 

[PocketNines]

Send him to Buffalo or the Rangers

 

[StlBigFly]

I don't want anything to do with that contract 11.5m with a NMC and signing bonuses up the wazoo

The bonuses stay of course but

(If I’m wrong somebody fix me)

If a player with clauses is moved the clauses are gone. It’s a one time thing.

The clauses are considered a deal between the signing team and the player. Trading partners do not have to honor them, although it could be part of negotiation.

 

[MissouriMook]

that line of thinking is nearly always wrong and you can track that across multiple sports. The more you play/do the lower your average gets until it reaches your real worth. batting avg in baseball, shooting % in basketball, goaltending in hockey, etc etc. ofcourse there are outliers like the truly elite players but that's not Hofer. He's very very good, not elite.

I wasn't referring to averages necessarily, just an athlete's ability to find consistency in their performance. I would expect that an athlete's sharpness and consistency in just about any sport would be much like a bell curve, with the maximum effectiveness in the 25%-75% utilization range. Especially with goalies, too much work and you can burn out; too little and your sharpness and focus aren't where they should be. A goalie who plays against real competition (not just practices and scrimmages) every 2-3 days will almost certainly be sharper and more focused than one who only plays every 10 days. Up to a point. I think that if a goalie played every other day for an extended period of time, they would start to experience some mental fatigue on top of the physical.

All of this is to say that I think that both Hofer and Binnington would benefit from a shift in the workload, with the split being closer to 50/50 going forward. As a coach, you should be mindful of this when you have a 1A/1B situation like we do. When you have a true starter/backup set up like the Jets or the Rangers, you want to optimize the starters workload (probably 60-65 games) even if it is at the expense of the sharpness of the backup. Binnington/Hofer has been 26/12 in the first 38 games this season (27/12 after today) and it seems to be showing. I think both goalies would improve their outcomes if we were closer to 50/50 the rest of the season. A 22/21 split in favor of Binnington would put them at 49/33 for the season, or as close to 60/40 as you can get.

 

[tfriede2]

The bonuses stay of course but

(If I’m wrong somebody fix me)

If a player with clauses is moved the clauses are gone. It’s a one time thing.

The clauses are considered a deal between the signing team and the player. Trading partners do not have to honor them, although it could be part of negotiation.

That doesn’t sound right to me. NTCs and NMCs are in the contract and move with the contract. If a player waives his NTC to be traded to another team, it’s a one-time waiver. The new team and the player can renegotiate those clauses as part of the trade, but otherwise they stay intact. This is my understanding, but I’m sure someone on here with access to the CBA will confirm either way.

 

[Reality Czech]

You could just as easily argue that he would have more consistency with more regular playing time. I believe that there was at least one instance this season where he went over 10 days without seeing any game action.

Perhaps but we'll never know. More games means more chances to have a bad game statistically thrown in there. Sometimes the team just plays like crap. What I observe is that just a handful of rough outings can torpedo a goalie's numbers, even if he's generally playing well overall.

The mental game seems to be the biggest challenge for starting NHL goalies because you're going to go through rough patches from time to time. Learning how to deal with that is perhaps the biggest challenge for them. I'm sure Hofer will get his shot at some point but I'm guessing there's a reason coaches still have a lot of faith in Binner.

 

[StlBigFly]

That doesn’t sound right to me. NTCs and NMCs are in the contract and move with the contract. If a player waives his NTC to be traded to another team, it’s a one-time waiver. The new team and the player can renegotiate those clauses as part of the trade, but otherwise they stay intact. This is my understanding, but I’m sure someone on here with access to the CBA will confirm either way.

https://puckpedia.com/salary-cap/no-trademovement-clauses#:~:text=Clauses%20after%20Trades,keep%20it%2C%20which%20is%20rare.

Appears there is a bit to it and really becomes a case by case whether clauses stay or go and depending on if the clause was waived or not, and used to be that the whole thing could be deleted in any trade, but now seems that part is different.

In the past at least there are examples where all the future clauses left after a trade. I’ll remember if I have to but I’m struggling today.

But I do think:

If some fantasy world where we trade for Petey - if he waived to come here then his clauses are gone. They don’t come back after he’s waived them unless that’s part of some bigger negotiation. I feel that’s how it works, or at least it did for some period of time.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

I wasn't referring to averages necessarily, just an athlete's ability to find consistency in their performance. I would expect that an athlete's sharpness and consistency in just about any sport would be much like a bell curve, with the maximum effectiveness in the 25%-75% utilization range. Especially with goalies, too much work and you can burn out; too little and your sharpness and focus aren't where they should be. A goalie who plays against real competition (not just practices and scrimmages) every 2-3 days will almost certainly be sharper and more focused than one who only plays every 10 days. Up to a point. I think that if a goalie played every other day for an extended period of time, they would start to experience some mental fatigue on top of the physical.

All of this is to say that I think that both Hofer and Binnington would benefit from a shift in the workload, with the split being closer to 50/50 going forward. As a coach, you should be mindful of this when you have a 1A/1B situation like we do. When you have a true starter/backup set up like the Jets or the Rangers, you want to optimize the starters workload (probably 60-65 games) even if it is at the expense of the sharpness of the backup. Binnington/Hofer has been 26/12 in the first 38 games this season (27/12 after today) and it seems to be showing. I think both goalies would improve their outcomes if we were closer to 50/50 the rest of the season. A 22/21 split in favor of Binnington would put them at 49/33 for the season, or as close to 60/40 as you can get.

I don’t understand the resistance to your argument. It’s completely reasonable to say that a little more consistent playing time could help a goalie stay sharp. It’s not even anecdotal.

I’ll give a very real world example: I play goalie every Friday with a group that plays on an outdoor rink. So we don’t play between mid March and mid October. Between the summer break and my wife having our second kid, I went 9 months without playing. Needless to say everything about my game was off. And I’m still trying to work my way back to my normal play level.

And I’m just playing beer league. Imagine having to stay at the level necessary to maximize your play against the best players in the world.

 

[Drubilly]

Congrats Gump!

 

[BlueOil]

Could you imagine if - when we wanted a meaner Parayko - if we had just told the team to harass him nonstop. Just horrible problem solving from Vancouver.

just imagining jackman trying to force parayko to be mean and laughing a bit at how that might go

 

[Drubilly]

just imagining jackman trying to force parayko to be mean and laughing a bit at how that might go