Around the NHL 2023-2024

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

In case anyone needs a reminder:

It’s honestly depressing thinking how things already 5 years old lol

 

[WeWentBlues]

Woll’s save on Frederic in the 3rd period looked absolutely identical to Binnington’s save on Nordstrom (I think it was) in game 7.

That was awesome. I’m still not optimistic for Toronto but hopefully they gain some momentum.

Hard not to root for the local kid. Also, if the Leafs advance, you can pencil in Jim Montgomery as the next HC of your St. Louis Blues.

 

[oPlaiD]

It’s honestly depressing thinking how things already 5 years old lol

Time gets faster as we get older...

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Avs put another five spot (and counting) on Hellebuyck. What a nightmare series for he and the Jets.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Hard not to root for the local kid. Also, if the Leafs advance, you can pencil in Jim Montgomery as the next HC of your St. Louis Blues.

local kid stoning local kid!

 

[stl76]

He played a horrible game. He made lots of defensive gaffes and took the bad penalty. His bad play directly led to the 3rd goal.

Wasn't his best game, but honestly I thought he made a lot of good plays last night. The penalty was weird...looked like the Dallas player skated right in to his stick when Petro was bracing for impact.

Full marks to Dallas. That Johnston kid is the real deal. Same for Stankoven despite his size, think he's nursing an injury but he was making an impact on every shift earlier in the series.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

1st round has been a bit meh, but these 2nd round matchups are gonna be lit.

 

[stl76]

Frederic has been fantastic so far in the playoffs. He has developed into a serious pain in the ass to play against.

Someone told me he's actually related to the Frederic Roofing folks. Not 100% sure it's true, but would be pretty funny.

 

[BlueDream]

In case anyone needs a reminder:

Yep that’s the one. Hopefully this leads to the same fate for the Bruins:

Frederic has been fantastic so far in the playoffs. He has developed into a serious pain in the ass to play against.

Someone told me he's actually related to the Frederic Roofing folks. Not 100% sure it's true, but would be pretty funny.

That’s confirmed to be his family.

 

[Xerloris]

Frederic has been fantastic so far in the playoffs. He has developed into a serious pain in the ass to play against.

Someone told me he's actually related to the Frederic Roofing folks. Not 100% sure it's true, but would be pretty funny.

Ya, his dad was at the Blues/Bruins game here and was interviewed.

 

[TheDizee]

Avs put another five spot (and counting) on Hellebuyck. What a nightmare series for he and the Jets.

Hes overrated and always has been

 

[mk80]

Frederic has been fantastic so far in the playoffs. He has developed into a serious pain in the ass to play against.

Someone told me he's actually related to the Frederic Roofing folks. Not 100% sure it's true, but would be pretty funny.

That’s correct. He’s a playoff performer but he can also get his team a deal for a hole in their roof or a whole new roof.

 

[Reality Czech]

Krug put up 9 more points than anyone on our blueline this year and 13 more points than Parayko but no one would remotely suggest that it's moving him up the depth chart.

Krug played against noticeably harder competition and with much less offensively skewed usage than Theodore did this year. Theodore is a much, much better player than Krug, but he is very much playing the sheltered role in Vegas (and dominating in that role). He had the 6th toughest quality of competition among the regular D men on the Vegas blue line and the most offensive deployment. Again, he crushed it in that role and none of this is a knock against him.

But usage matters. Matchups matter. Defending matters. Killing penalties matters.

Petro got by far the highest quality of competition in Vegas this year. He got matchup against elite talent at the same frequency as Parayko/Leddy (albeit with much more favorable zone start rates).

Petro's job this year was to match up against the other team's top line.

Theodore's job was to cave in easy competition.

Again, I'm not knocking Theodore. He had a great season and is earning himself a hell of a pay day. But I'm not sold that excelling in the highly sheltered role makes him a candidate to do the job of an all-situation #1. This is the 2nd straight year that Vegas has split the load like this and Theodore has been great in that role. But they are very intentionally playing him to maximize his strengths, which has meant Petro getting more and harder minutes.



Petro hasn't been worth the AAV this year, but he was worth every penny and more in the playoffs last year. He's also had 3 (and arguably 4) deep playoff runs in his career where he found an extra couple gears in the playoffs from what he brought in the regular season. His first 4 playoff games have been underwhelming this year, but he is also freshly back from an appendectomy that caused him to miss the last 7 (and 13 of the last 15) games of the season.

I'm not at all ready to declare him washed and so far Vegas is still giving Theodore the sheltered deployment while Petro eats the hard minutes. That could absolutely change, but the jury is still well out for me. I'm rooting for Dallas, but I won't be at all surprised if Vegas comes out of this series and winds up making another deep run with Petro leading the team in minutes.

Looking forward, Theodore should be looking to get paid. They may prefer 8 years of Theodore to Petro's remaining 3, but Petro isn't going anywhere. That NMC and AAV was the cost to bring in the #1 D that brought the franchise its Cup. They don't win that Cup without Petro and part of that bill is that you are stuck with him for the decline. I think that they will buy out the final year of his deal if he still wants to play (the contract is structured to make a buyout feasible in the final season), but even then they would still have to make at least 1 year work while paying Petro $8.8M, Hanifin $7.35M and Theodore whatever raise he gets.

I would make that work if I were them, but I also see a scenario where Theodore wants too much money and they move him this summer for a haul. I could see an intelligent hockey operations department having major concerns about how Theodore's play will translate in the all-situations role he will eventually have to take on if they pay him like a #1. They are wizards with the cap, but finding another Petro (and extending Eichel) while paying Hanifin and Theodore $18M is a hell of a tough ask.

I see the logic in selling Theodore to recoup some of the assets lost in the last few months, relying on Petro/McNabb to give you 1-2 more years of shutdown top 4 play and then trying to find/develop young D in the bottom half of the lineup for 1-2 years with the goal that they eventually take the reigns from McNabb/Petro (along with a high priced acquisition you pick up when the timing is right). That plan sounds more like Vegas than giving Theodore the bag after acquiring/extending Hanifin (who has a lot of the same strengths as Theodore).

I get all of those arguments. Sure Theodore has been sheltered and I'm no expert on his overall game, but I wonder which player Vegas fans would rather have going forward. The soon-to-be 29 year old who's averaged over .8 PPG the last two years or a fading Petro at $8.8 million? I see Hanifin being their 1D sooner than later if he isn't already, and Theodore is clearly the top offensive option. So they better hope Petro's game doesn't slip much more next year or he'll start to enter anchor territory.

If they have to lose Theodore because of their cap situation, then good. I'm sure it was worth it to get their Cup, but their future is questionable with so many bloated contracts.

 

[Reality Czech]

I assumed Theodore was ahead of Petro on the depth chart.

At this point? Probably not. Just like Schenn isn't worth $6.5 million per year at this point. But, it's entirely possible he's still dealing with getting up to speed from appendicitis and the resulting surgery. And, Vegas got a Cup from him so there's an element of #worthit in there.

That said, Theodore is also scoreless right now in the postseason - in fact, the only defenseman with any points is Brayden McNabb (2-2-4) - and Hanifin has looked particularly terrible at times. If I'm looking for reasons Vegas coughed up a 2-0 lead at home, Pietrangelo doesn't even make an HM in my top-5.

I have no doubt that Vegas thinks it was worth it, but I also wonder if it would have been worth it for the Blues to give him the identical contract. Seems like most people assume that we would be better off with Petro over the entirety of his deal, but I'm not so sure. It would be amusing if Vegas's wheeling and dealing came back to haunt them by losing quality younger players due to their cap tactics.

Go Stars Go!

 

[Xerloris]

I have no doubt that Vegas thinks it was worth it, but I also wonder if it would have been worth it for the Blues to give him the identical contract. Seems like most people assume that we would be better off with Petro over the entirety of his deal, but I'm not so sure. It would be amusing if Vegas's wheeling and dealing came back to haunt them by losing quality younger players due to their cap tactics.

Go Stars Go!

No, it would not have been worth it. We would not have gotten a cup out of extending him.

 

[TheOrganist]

I believe there are people here who would swap Hellebuyck for Binnington if they could just press a button and make it so. But that would be insane.

Trade a playoff nails goalie for Five Goal Connor? Or Six Goal Connor? Not sure which to settle on, he is giving us both options all series

Five Goal Connor?

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I have no doubt that Vegas thinks it was worth it, but I also wonder if it would have been worth it for the Blues to give him the identical contract. Seems like most people assume that we would be better off with Petro over the entirety of his deal, but I'm not so sure. It would be amusing if Vegas's wheeling and dealing came back to haunt them by losing quality younger players due to their cap tactics.

Eventually? It probably will.

Will they regret it? Thus far, they have a Finals appearance, 2 WCF appearances and a Cup. And, players still want to go there. If it results in another Cup or a couple more deep runs, probably not. Until that changes to "11-14 team or worse in the conference, no shot at the playoffs, players are staying away" they'll do what they do, and it will eventually be a fascinating study case for running a franchise in a capped league.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Avs put another five spot (and counting) on Hellebuyck. What a nightmare series for he and the Jets.

He's now 18-27 career in the playoffs.

-- First 13 career playoff games: 9-4, 2.23, .926
-- Since then: 9-23, 3.10, .904
-- Last 9 playoff games: 1-8, 4.65, .871

At least he's got 8 7 more years at $8.5 million per to figure it out.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Jets being very reminiscent of the early 2010s Blues, except instead of going up 2-0, they only win game 1 before losing 4 straight.

And assuming Hellebuyck wins the Vezina, that thing is almost turning into a bit of a curse for goalies going into the playoffs, the last winner to even make it past the 2nd round was Lundqvist in 2012

 

[TheDizee]

Hellebuyck was never even impressive in our series. ROR G2 GWG was as soft serve as they come.

 

[The Note]

While I don’t think Hellebuyck was particularly great and there was probably a couple he’d want back, I think people here are underselling how badly the Jets got outplayed and out chanced over the course of the series. Even just simply looking at their goal totals: after the game 1 circus, they scored 2,2,1,3. Hard to win many playoff series against anyone like that, much less a very good Avs team.

 

[TheOrganist]

He's now 18-27 career in the playoffs.

-- First 13 career playoff games: 9-4, 2.23, .926
-- Since then: 9-23, 3.10, .904
-- Last 9 playoff games: 1-8, 4.65, .871

At least he's got 8 7 more years at $8.5 million per to figure it out.

That's an interesting disparity. Almost reminiscent of something like Rory McIlroy at the Masters...very good at Augusta early in his career and then he's been horribad for a decade to the point where it becomes mental/pressure mounts and it doesn't seem like the tide will ever turn.

 

[Brian39]

And assuming Hellebuyck wins the Vezina, that thing is almost turning into a bit of a curse for goalies going into the playoffs, the last winner to even make it past the 2nd round was Lundqvist in 2012

The Rangers made it to the Conference Final in 2022 when Shesterkin won the Vezina. Vegas made it to the semifinals in 2021 when Fleury won the Vezina. So that's 2 trips to the Conference Final and zero trips to the Final for the Vezina winner in the last decade.

Over the same timeframe, the winner of the Hart trophy has zero trips to the Conference Final and substantially more 1st round losses. Vezina winners have been having a much higher rate of success getting their team to round 2 and round 3 than Hart winners.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

While I don’t think Hellebuyck was particularly great and there was probably a couple he’d want back, I think people here are underselling how badly the Jets got outplayed and out chanced over the course of the series. Even just simply looking at their goal totals: after the game 1 circus, they scored 2,2,1,3. Hard to win many playoff series against anyone like that, much less a very good Avs team.

I agree, it does make it tough, but Winnipeg led in 4 of the 5 games and got it to tied in the other. And yeah, Colorado is a really good team. Winnipeg was a really good team, too. Had swept Colorado in the season series, including a 7-0 undressing back on the 13th in Colorado. Got outshot in all 3 of those games, too.

No, I don't necessarily expect him to win all 4 of those games when the team scores 2, 2, 1 and 3, but when you give up 2 in 18 seconds, 3 in 5:37, 3 in 6:00, your team stakes you to an early lead and you give it up a couple minutes later, ... you're supposedly an elite goalie, at some point you have to step up and make saves to keep your team in the game. When you don't, you increase the pressure on everyone in front of you because they start thinking we can't give up chances or they'll end up in the back of the net and that inevitably leads to even more pressure because trying to play perfect leads to more mistakes.

 

[Brian39]

I know I'm a broken record about goalie workload, but I'm not remotely surprised that a guy consistently asked to play 60+ games a year doesn't look fully dialed in by the time playoffs roll around.

Brossoit was excellent this year and somehow the Jets decided to still give Helly 60 starts, which was 3rd most in the league. Helly started 11 of their last 15 down the stretch and 5 of the final 7 games, so they barely even dialed the workload back down the stretch in order to get rested for the postseason. I understand riding your elite goalie into the ground when you don't have another option, but this is a team that had a .927 backup who went 15-5-2.

I think there is very much a mental aspect to Helly's struggles in the playoffs beyond fatigue, but mental issues never get easier to handle when your body is also a step behind it's peak physical condition.

All that said, Helly wasn't at his best (or even close to it) in these playoffs, but I think his numbers are much uglier than his actual play was. The Avs thoroughly outplayed the Jets and had way too many grade A chances coming off the blade of elite players with a knack for finishing grade A chances at a high rate. You need a good chunk better from your $8.5M guy in net, but his play wasn't at the top of my list of problems for the Jets. I think that the gaudy goal totals for Colorado is much more reflective of the Avs blowing the doors of the Jets team than Helly specifically.

The Avs averaged 37 shots per game in this series. That's 3.2 shots per game more than the 2nd-best Hurricanes who completely dismantled the Isles AND had a game go to double OT to help boost the shot total. It was a shooting gallery out there.