I love the cognitive dissonance of people who are all like, see, he didn't really want to spend his career here! When the most notable major hangup of the contract was a NMC lol.
Here's what I think happened - in response to someone who asked earlier. Some of this has been reported on, some of this is speculation, I'll try and separate out which is which (But please note that speculation has some critical thought put into it)
Fact - Summer of '19 - Blues and AP meet and share initial numbers. The Blues decide that they're going to push negotiations off until a future date.
Speculation - AP is asking for the moon. And why not? He's the most important player on our team, he's just a few weeks from being the first ever Blue to lift a Stanley Cup, and he's proven through multiple seasons that he's a legit #1 guy who gets Norris buzz every year, as well as our Captain. Did he want 10M? 11M? 11M and a NMC? I don't know, it doesn't really matter all that much. What matters is, he wanted to sign a big fat contract here, likely with max trade protection, and (in my opinion) was justified for at least starting negotiations with it.
Speculation - This initial ask clearly doesn't sit well with Armstrong for some reason. Maybe it was the NMC, maybe it was the AAV, again, no one really knows. It's pretty obvious with hindsight that he didn't like it though, b/c of the next thing that happens:
Fact - On Sept 24th, in the midst of training camp, we trade and extend Justin Faulk for Edmundson and Bokk. Faulks contract has an interesting feature - a NTC that modifies to a partial NTC in 2025-2026. This was for 6.5M AAV and has no bonus structure attached. At the time this was about 8% of the cap.
Speculation - AP has to be thinking right now - huh, that's weird. He's a RH Dman, we already have a guy behind me in Parayko that's locked in for another two years, and they just gave this guy, who hasn't played a single minute for this franchise, a 6.5M AAV. Players aren't stupid. Well, they may be, but agents aren't stupid. They know that signing a guy who plays the same position as their client for big money is usually not a good sign of things to come.
Fact - About a week and a half later, just as the regular season is starting, (Oct. 4th) we sign Brayden Schenn to a 6.5M deal, which again, has an interesting feature - a full NTC that turns into a partial NTC in the 2025-2026 year. As with Faulk, these are both the "Submit a 15 team no-trade," type NTCs. Again, this is for about 8% of the cap.
Fact - On Oct 29th, the Predators sign Roman Josi to an 8x9M contract (Yes it has that stupid remainder so his cap hit has a 59 in it, who cares) - this contract comes with a full NMC and about 1/2 of the contract is paid in bonus money.
Speculation - This is the part where AP and camp are going - ok guys, this should be easy. Did you see what Josi just got? That's what I'm looking for too. This shouldn't be hard, we've been contemporaries our whole career, maybe Josi has a bit more individual success, but I've won a Ring damnit. Armstrong isn't moved.
Fact - Jay-Bo has cardiac arrest and is basically finished for the season (And obviously, career). We trade for Scandella - who we then sign during the COVID shutdown for 3.25M a year.
For those playing at home - that's 16.25M handed out in contracts without AP getting one. Again, players aren't stupid - they understand in a cap world that every dollar going to someone else is one less available for them.
Fact - COVID ends, our season ends with a thud, and we go into the offseason. AP goes on to place third in Norris voting, with Josi winning.
Fact - It's widely reported that the major sticking point in negotiations with AP is the structure of the contract. According to reports, he wants a full NMC and Armstrong is unwilling to give it to him. Armstrong and Stillman reportedly even have a full on face-to-face meeting with AP about a week before UFA beings - (Speculation) to hopefully bridge the gap and explain why they're not budging on the NMC - AP isn't moved.
Fact - On the first day of UFA (Which occurs in Oct due to COVID) - we sign Tory Krug to a 6.5M contract - with a notable feature - his full NTC becomes a partial NTC in 2025-2026, with a 15 team no-trade list.
Guys - it's pretty easy to connect the dots here. You have three separate data points where Army gave out a contract where the NTC modified in 2025-2026 to allow himself flexibility to trade said player.
Speculation - Army wasn't interested in giving AP a Josi-like contract. He wanted flexibility to do whatever he wanted when he felt our competitive window was likely to close. That's 100% on him for not offering that contract to AP. AP probably did take that a little personally - because who wouldn't? He's been the face of our franchise since Backes left, arguably since he was drafted. He won a Cup, he came in third in Norris voting, and he's the captain of our team. There was a clear and direct comparable contract signed earlier that same year (Yes, before COVID hit, but still) that we didn't seem to even come close to matching.
Once UFA hit, and Vegas offered him what he wanted, he signed. I full believe Had we offered him an 8x8 with full NMC and at least -some- signing bonus money, he'd have been a Blue for life.