Around the NHL 2022-2023 *Mod warning in effect pg145

[Majorityof1]

That's such bullshit and we've seen over the last few years tons of women come forth with completely legitimate accusations that were not immediately reported. Reports shouldn't need to be made immediately.

I do not think he said there is no chance this could be legitimate, just that the time delay makes it seem less likely to him. While there are instances of people coming much later with legitimate complaints, there are also instances of people deciding to withdraw consent years later when the relationship did not go how they envisioned. We don't know the truth of what happened. Without all the facts or any evidence besides an anonymous accusation, it seems reasonable to weigh all the factors, including timing of the accusation, in determining the likelihood of this being true.

Sweet. Then let's go past anecdotes and turn to statistics. What percentage of sexual assault claims are false?

That's impossible to know since a lot come down to he said/she said. Absent physical evidence, how can you even know which ones are false to account for a percentage?

EditL Also, the research you are most likely going to site is for cases reported to the police. That kind of proves TK's point. Going to the police is a bigger step, and weeds out many of the false accusations. This instance the person most likely did not go to the police, and hence the studies are irrelevant.

 

[Stealth JD]

Ron White's comments at the 0:56 mark always come to mind in situations such as these.



RIP hockey career, Cole.

 

[TK 421]

W

Sweet. Then let's go past anecdotes and turn to statistics. What percentage of sexual assault claims are false?

What constitutes sexual assault?

 

[bluesfan94]

That's impossible to know since a lot come down to he said/she said. Absent physical evidence, how can you even know which ones are false to account for a percentage?

By sampling ones that are verifiable

 

[BlueOil]

W

What constitutes sexual assault?

timely reporting apparently

 

[bluesfan94]

W

What constitutes sexual assault?

Define as you would like; what percent do you believe are falsely reported?

But props to you for building in your out

 

[Majorityof1]

By sampling ones that are verifiable

That is a poisoned sample. As its impossible to prove a negative definitively, verifiable ones are mainly the ones where assault is proven. All the unverifiable ones are the ones with false accusations. Its not a random sample, you are actively weeding out the ones you don't want in the sample.

 

[BlueOil]

Yeah they should if you want them taken seriously. Your anecdotal evidence is worth as much as mine if I were to point out examples of false allegations. It's a cowardly way to do it on social media, there is a process which she ignored in favor of just throwing him at the court of public opinion.

the younger the victim is the worse your logic looks here. your gusto to discount or invalidate something you have such little detail about is confusing.

 

[TK 421]

Define as you would like; what percent do you believe are falsely reported?

No man, that's not how this works. You used the terminology so I need to understand your definition before I can answer.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I've seen the statistics on false rape accusations, accusations actually proven to be false estimated to be between 2-10% or 5-10%. Those numbers don't include those that either weren't investigated that could be false or those that were investigated and couldn't be determined one way or the other.

For me, I'd give more credibility if the user of the twitter account was vetted by a journalist that has experience in this area, say Rick Westhead. It's one thing to look at the meat of the allegation, and it's another to not even know if this person is real and who they say they are. They don't need to out themselves, but someone with credibility vetting the story would do a lot.

 

[ValHaller]

Oh look, the predictable People Who Care About Evidence vs. People Who Just Wanna Feel Their Feels shitstorm has begun.

 

[TK 421]

the younger the victim is the worse your logic looks here. your gusto to discount or invalidate something you have such little detail about is confusing.

And that's part of the problem isn't it? She never specified her age nor do we know the age of consent in the state it reportedly happened in. In fact we're missing all kinds of info which is why smearing someone's reputation shouldn't be done in this manner.

 

[Majorityof1]

I've seen the statistics on false rape accusations, accusations actually proven to be false estimated to be between 2-10% or 5-10%. Those numbers don't include those that either weren't investigated that could be false or those that were investigated and couldn't be determined one way or the other.

For me, I'd give more credibility if the user of the twitter account was vetted by a journalist that has experience in this area, say Rick Westhead. It's one thing to look at the meat of the allegation, and it's another to not even know if this person is real and who they say they are. They don't need to out themselves, but someone with credibility vetting the story would do a lot.

As I pointed out above, that 2-10% number is for accusations reported to the police. This was not reported to the police, and hence that study has absolutely nothing to do with this situation. Going to the police is a serious step that could have negative consequences for false accusers. That step would naturally weed out false accusers. There is no study on what percentage of anonymous twitter posts alleging sexual assault are true, because they are all unverifiable.

 

[bluesfan94]

Oh look, the predictable People Who Care About Evidence vs. People Who Just Wanna Feel Their Feels shitstorm has begun.

I assume you consider yourself on the side of people who care about evidence, right?

So let's go through the evidence.
1) We have first person testimony from a woman claiming to be a victim.
2) We have Ian Cole denying it.
3) We have statistics that show that reports of sexual assault are false 2-10% of the time; so the vast majority are true
4) We have evidence that the Lightning found enough in their internal investigation to suspend Cole

As I pointed out above, that 2-10% number is for accusations reported to the police.

No it isn't.

 

[ValHaller]

I assume you consider yourself on the side of people who care about evidence, right?

So let's go through the evidence.
1) We have first person testimony from a woman claiming to be a victim.
2) We have Ian Cole denying it.
3) We have statistics that show that reports of sexual assault are false 2-10% of the time; so the vast majority are true
4) We have evidence that the Lightning found enough in their internal investigation to suspend Cole


No it isn't.

Direct evidence that this happened beyond a non-vetted personal account from an anonymous Twitter: 0

Care to try again?

P.S. I have an invisible pink unicorn in my garage

 

[bleedblue1223]

As I pointed out above, that 2-10% number is for accusations reported to the police. This was not reported to the police, and hence that study has absolutely nothing to do with this situation. Going to the police is a serious step that could have negative consequences for false accusers. That step would naturally weed out false accusers. There is no study on what percentage of anonymous twitter posts alleging sexual assault are true, because they are all unverifiable.

Don't disagree. I use that number simply because I think it's large enough to quiet those that say false allegations never happen, but it's also small enough to not be viewed as someone that comes off as saying these false allegations are happening everything and ruining the world.

 

[Majorityof1]

I assume you consider yourself on the side of people who care about evidence, right?

So let's go through the evidence.
1) We have first person testimony from a woman claiming to be a victim.
2) We have Ian Cole denying it.
3) We have statistics that show that reports of sexual assault are false 2-10% of the time; so the vast majority are true
4) We have evidence that the Lightning found enough in their internal investigation to suspend Cole

1) We don't even know that it is a woman. A guy can very easily create an anonymous twitter account with a female name.
3) Those stats don't apply. There is no evidence she reported it to the police which is what the studies measure. The percentage of assaults reported to the police that were false, not the percentage of random accusations.
4) No, they suspended him in order to start an internal investigation. There was nothing in the statement to indicate they had even started it.

Don't disagree. I use that number simply because I think it's large enough to quiet those that say false allegations never happen, but it's also small enough to not be viewed as someone that comes off as saying these false allegations are happening everything and ruining the world.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics. People use statistics all the time to obfuscate when they don't bother to actually explain what the statistics are measuring. It is important to provide context when using statistics and to show how the statistics apply to the particular situation you are addressing. Here they do not apply.

 

[bluesfan94]

Those stats don't apply. There is no evidence she reported it to the police which is what the studies measure.

Except it isn't what those studies measure.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Except it isn't what those studies measure.

Can you point me to the ones you are referring to, all the ones that I've seen that are roughly in that range are referring to cases brought to the police.

 

[Majorityof1]

Except it isn't what those studies measure.

"How often do false reports occur? ​

Reliable studies consistently measure the rate of false reports as 2% to 10%. For example, an analysis of ten years of cases reported to a University police department involved setting coding criteria in advance, reviewing case summaries, meeting with police officials to review the cases in more detail, and establishing coding reliability by comparing the classifications made by two research teams across all 136 cases."

"A 2014 study of sexual assault cases reported to the Los Angeles Police Department used quantitative and qualitative methods to review reports and analyze detective interviews. The study found that 4.5% of cases were false reports. These results are consistent with other well-constructed international studies."

Myths about Sexual Assault Reports | Health Promotion | Brown University

False reports of sexual assault are dramatically overestimated. Poorly constructed studies and a lack of understanding of the dynamics of sexual assault contribute to this problem. In rigorous research, rates of false reports are consistently very low, ranging from 2% to 10%. This is similar to...

www.brown.edu

 

[bluesfan94]

Can you point me to the ones you are referring to, all the ones that I've seen that are roughly in that range are referring to cases brought to the police.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1077801210387747

Although the study design doesn't specify university police department, so perhaps there's more to it than the abstract

 

[ValHaller]

Not a fan of the verbiage with these stats, though I'll grant it's likely a necessary evil when discussing among randos on the internet. Specifically, I don't like the phrasing "false vs true" when it comes to allegations. Instead, it should be allegations which resulted in convictions vs. ones that did not.

 

[Majorityof1]

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1077801210387747

Although the study design doesn't specify university police department, so perhaps there's more to it than the abstract

That study seems to line up with the one in the Brown article I linked, since it was cases at a University and the number of samples was the exact same over the same timeline. Therefore I'd tend to believe the Brown summary that all cases in the sample reported to the university police.

Again, lies, damn lies, and statistics. It is important to know exactly what a stastic is measuring and what process was used to derive it before using it in an argument unless you are trying to intentional obfuscate the discussion.

 

[bleedblue1223]

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1077801210387747

Although the study design doesn't specify university police department, so perhaps there's more to it than the abstract

Yeah, it could be a University police department. For me, even if it's just the University, it's still an actual person reporting it to some authority figure. That's really the big thing for me, if we knew the accuser was who they allege to be by some authority backing it, whether that's a journalist or NHL confirming a report was made with them, etc., then it would have more to it.

Until then, I'm not really sure what to make of it. It wouldn't surprise me if it was true, and it wouldn't surprise me if it wasn't. I don't think it would be terribly difficult for the NHL to investigate, so I'm sure we'll get some sort of closure, but it'll also be unsatisfying assuming the individual doesn't want to get more involved.

 

[bluesfan94]

That study seems to line up with the one in the Brown article I linked, since it was cases at a University and the number of samples was the exact same over the same timeline. Therefore I'd tend to believe the Brown summary that all cases in the sample reported to the university police.

Again, lies, damn lies, and statistics. It is important to know exactly what a stastic is measuring and what process was used to derive it before using it in an argument unless you are trying to intentional obfuscate the discussion.

Ah that makes sense and where my disconnect is.

I still don't think that that changes the fact that time does not make something less believable unless there are stats on that.