If Ullmark doesn't command an 8M cap hit by January or February, then there is a problem with his play.
I don't think the Senators should sign him to 8 until they see how he plays in their system because as of today, that's his ceiling. It would be the same mistake Dorion made with Murray. (Although, balancing the budget with a backloaded contract might be why he was eager to give him term.)
But if come January, they aren't gladly signing him to 8M, then it probably means he hasn't come as advertised. The only knock on Ullmark is that he has never played a true starter workload. With the relative weakness of our backup goalies, he absolutely will play one here.
Technically, 8M would be an overpayment right now based on the historical market and his resume, he would probably be at 6.5M-7.0M. If he proves he can be a top 5-10 goalie in the league this season with 60+ games played, he's set himself up to get 8M.
The Bruins need to get Pierre Dorion in these negotiations stat. Get that 8x8 offer moving.
Using Matt Murray's contract as a reference point, Pierre would have offered Swayman a 22 year 18M AAV contract with a limited NTC that allows him to choose which 6 teams Dorion can pretend he didn't name.