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Around The League Thread - 2026 Offseason

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Captain3rdLine said:
Really depends on the perspective and how well Raddysh keeps up last seasons play.

Presumably the goal is to maximize the final 2 years of Matthews contract and I guess keep him around. Basically be a contender as quickly as possible. If Raddysh’s game holds up alright for the next 2-3 years this is a good move from that perspective.
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Analytics isn’t about the idea of what a player can be, it’s about looking at data and extrapolating how they can be a fit. Chayka was doing a lot of the former in Arizona and it hurt them.
 
I will say that only giving up a 5th round pick to get the 8th year is decent work, given what Vegas gave up for Marner and Columbus gave up for Severson.

I remember thinking the Islanders' deal for Mark Streit was awful. Now he was only signed for 5 years, but he was also 30 coming off what looked like a fluke year, he got 7.2% of the cap in his signing year and he had several good seasons. Raddysh is 8.1%, so a decent amount more, but I still think it's a fine bet - Toronto is not paying for him to be the guy he was last year, they're paying for him to be 75% of that.
 
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I think thats a pretty good deal all thins considered. I thought he gets 10+ in the open market

Obviously risky due to 1 good year and could turn horrible but they needed a puck mover badly
 
Raddysh goes from playing 17:18 in 2024-2025 to playing 22:42 this past season - partly to make up for Hedman's ice time decline (which went from 23:05 to 18:52 while only playing 33 games).

He then gets rewarded from this breakout season with a $68M contract after making $975K this past season. Great for him, but wow.
 
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The one thing with Raddysh that scares me is he any good or did he play with JJ Moser 5 on 5 and Nikita Kucherov on the PP ??

Think those 2 deserves a nice dinner on Raddysh for this
 
Triumph said:
I will say that only giving up a 5th round pick to get the 8th year is decent work, given what Vegas gave up for Marner and Columbus gave up for Severson.
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I always find myself surprised by the sign and trade / trading rights deals.

First, it’s interesting how valuable it is for teams to have an extra couple days to talk to the player. If I’m a big ticket FA why wouldn’t I just wait a few more days to hit the open market instead of negotiating with 1 team that I know almost nothing about (ie I just got traded there).

Second how do these contracts get resolved so quickly? I imagine the trading team gives the other one rights to communicate before a trade is finalized. Otherwise this would be tampering to the max or the acquiring team is just overpaying dramatically.

Finally it’s interesting that the extra year matters. 8x8.5 =68M. 68/7 =9.714M. So an extra 1.2m AAV saved by adding the extra year. I don’t know if he’s getting a 7x9.7 on the open market. But in some cases especially for younger RFAs I see a player going for let’s say a 8x7 instead of 7x7.5 which is a $3.5m total delta that the player could always recoup by getting one more contract. For example player X signs for 7 years instead of 8 and in the 8th year gets a 1x6 from elsewhere so he actually makes more money before even accounting for time value of money.

it’s not that much value given (never seen more than a 3 in the deal except for that bizarre Marner tampering blackmail) but it’s a bit of business that doesn’t get talked about much and doesn’t happen too often so always interesting to see
 
dzubrus8 said:
I always find myself surprised by the sign and trade / trading rights deals.

First, it’s interesting how valuable it is for teams to have an extra couple days to talk to the player. If I’m a big ticket FA why wouldn’t I just wait a few more days to hit the open market instead of negotiating with 1 team that I know almost nothing about (ie I just got traded there).

Second how do these contracts get resolved so quickly? I imagine the trading team gives the other one rights to communicate before a trade is finalized. Otherwise this would be tampering to the max or the acquiring team is just overpaying dramatically.

Finally it’s interesting that the extra year matters. 8x8.5 =68M. 68/7 =9.714M. So an extra 1.2m AAV saved by adding the extra year. I don’t know if he’s getting a 7x9.7 on the open market. But in some cases especially for younger RFAs I see a player going for let’s say a 8x7 instead of 7x7.5 which is a $3.5m total delta that the player could always recoup by getting one more contract. For example player X signs for 7 years instead of 8 and in the 8th year gets a 1x6 from elsewhere so he actually makes more money before even accounting for time value of money.

it’s not that much value given (never seen more than a 3 in the deal except for that bizarre Marner tampering blackmail) but it’s a bit of business that doesn’t get talked about much and doesn’t happen too often so always interesting to see
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This one is pretty easy. Once a team knows they arent signing a guy, they allow their agent to go out and look around for other teams offers. Once he has a deal in place with a team they then go back and figure out a trade

The NHL doesnt like it, but if the team gives them permission - no one is going to report tampering.
 
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A friend said he saw the Lightning rumored to sign Carlson for 2 years 5 million AAV. Anybody seeing this from legit sources?
 
Raddysh is from Toronto and they had a need at RHD, so the match makes sense and this might've been Raddysh's preferred destination anyway (particularly getting THAT contract). The extra $1.2M AAV saved is important given Toronto is a win-now team given Matthews' contract, plus they don't even own their own 1st round picks the next 2 years.

Don't think this deal will age well, but for a 5th rounder it makes sense for Toronto to make the deal and Raddysh to get that 8th year.
 
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The $8 million AAV isn’t as bad in a rising cap era, but it isn’t nothing. More concerning is the fact that it’s an eight year contract for a 30 year old who is coming off a season that had several variables that made him look better than he actually is. The guy who called this Clarkson 2.0 is right.

I hate to belabor the point, but Chayka deserves it for promoting himself as something he’s not: what is the analytical argument for signing Raddysh to an 8 year $8mil AAV contract that almost certainly has trade protection? Because I don’t see any.
 
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Ripshot 43 said:
A friend said he saw the Lightning rumored to sign Carlson for 2 years 5 million AAV. Anybody seeing this from legit sources?
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LeBrun mentioned the other day that Carlson to Tampa makes sense given Raddysh was expected to leave.



Don't see anything else on Twitter and the $5M AAV sounds very low versus what Carlson is rumored to want.

Ultimately, I think he signs there at a higher level but still less than what he would've gotten on the open market.
 
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HBK27 said:
Raddysh is from Toronto and they had a need at RHD, so the match makes sense and this might've been Raddysh's preferred destination anyway (particularly getting THAT contract). The extra $1.2M AAV saved is important given Toronto is a win-now team given Matthews' contract, plus they don't even own their own 1st round picks the next 2 years.

Don't think this deal will age well, but for a 5th rounder it makes sense for Toronto to make the deal and Raddysh to get that 8th year.
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Yes agreed this looks like a clear win - win - win in terms of the trade.

Contract wise I don’t think he’s worth all that money and I expect it to age badly but I think some team would’ve loved to have him for a 7x8-9 so that late pick allowed Toronto to swoop in and get their guy.
 
thebeernerd said:
Analytics isn’t about the idea of what a player can be, it’s about looking at data and extrapolating how they can be a fit. Chayka was doing a lot of the former in Arizona and it hurt them.
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Not really sure that relates much to what I was saying. It’s not about the idea of what a player can be. It’s what he is currently.
He quite obviously paid for what the player currently is. He’s making a gutsy bet for the right now that’s all.

Is it a bad deal when you project it out 8 years? Probably, but in the context of where they are right now it makes some sense and could be a good deal.
 
thebeernerd said:
The $8 million AAV isn’t as bad in a rising cap era, but it isn’t nothing. More concerning is the fact that it’s an eight year contract for a 30 year old who is coming off a season that had several variables that made him look better than he actually is. The guy who called this Clarkson 2.0 is right.

I hate to belabor the point, but Chayka deserves it for promoting himself as something he’s not: what is the analytical argument for signing Raddysh to an 8 year $8mil AAV contract that almost certainly has trade protection? Because I don’t see any.
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Calling this Clarkson 2.0 is entirely wrong. Clarkson was a limited-use player who had very clear extreme drawbacks and it was likely his skillset would not age well - for him to fall apart immediately could not have been expected, but the signs are there. Clarkson was used on PP2 by the Devils and was primarily a 3rd line player in his career - he was used more in 2012-13 but his results weren't very good.

Raddysh is signed for almost the exact amount of money Clarkson was signed for, relative to the cap. It's within 1/100th of a percentage point.

The analytical argument for Raddysh? He had a great season and usually good players have great seasons. It is more likely that Raddysh is an actually good player than that he was a product of his environment. There's plenty of late bloomers in the NHL pantheon of D - Visnovsky, Streit, Rafalski, etc.

This isn't much money. A player coming off this season who had another season like it somewhere in his career would be expect to be paid well in excess of $10M. This rising cap has everyone confused. Raddysh and Hamilton are signed for almost the same money, but when Hamilton signed his deal, it was 11% of the cap, now it's 8.6%.
 
This is what LeBrun wrote this morning regarding Carlson

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I think this is a reasonable risk for Toronto, tbh. They're a kinda bad team that's asset poor and relatively cap space rich. What's the downside for them? He sucks and they still suck? Shrug. They gotta find top pairing defenseman somewhere.
 
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