Around the League - PLAYOFFS!?

[Gabriel426]

And then Pittsburgh had the foresight to sign him long term.

They want to tank, lol

 

[MSZ]

One thing not a lot of people talked about, Maurice's Jets swept the Oilers 4 years ago, so this man really knows how to shutdown those guys.

 

[Trapper]

View attachment 882905

All good players. Put them all together and it doesn’t work.
Tkachuk and Bennett together with a different group does.

 

[Stephen]

How many elite goalies have won a cup in the last 5-10 years though?

Vasy for sure, then it's a few good but not amazing guys and some defacto one hit wonders. I think it's a bigger question mark variable than you're implying

Two points.

The first one is the Leafs are so far behind in the playoff evolution curve that we shouldn’t even be comparing ourselves to Stanley Cup winners at all. We struggle to win 4 playoff games let alone 4 rounds so whatever previous champions have done is not our business. We aren’t even in that class.

The only thing to do at this point is to get stronger on D and G in concrete ways and start moneyballing up front to fill the gaps on F and just hope we are different, better as a result.

Secondly, since 2020 the last 5 Stanley Cup finals have featured Bobrovsky twice, Vasilevskiy twice and Price once. So that would seem to suggest that just to get to the finals 50% of the teams that make it have a Vezina guy making $9.5 million minimum. Vasi and Bob will both walk away with one cup from the looks of things. Price lost to Vasi in 2021. No guarantees in life but I think we are long past questioning if elite goalies are worth it. We just need the right one and not a GM who doesn’t understand them or is scared to invest in one.

 

[Stephen]

Picking up low value "market inefficiency" players is exactly how the Florida Panthers were built. They just picked up ones that worked out for them. They are also an analytical stats driven org.

and yes, goalies are pretty much voodoo. The recency bias, that one team, built one way wins the cup, and that's the new formula is a bit shortsighted.

Yeah but look at Toronto’s attempt.

 

[Stephen]

Even those goalies that are supposedly "subpar" can be big moment goalies making big saves at key times. Toronto, Edmonton, Carolina stand out as teams that have have good teams but poor goaltending that last decade (Andersen, Campbell, Mrazek common threads here too). I dont think spreadsheets dictate as much as people think they do in these regards or else many goalies out there simply wouldnt be signed. Its just hard to find a good goalie and teams dont tend to let go of good ones.

Goalies are only voodoo in the sense they can have real ups and downs in their career as Bob has just showed us although hes had other bad stretches too. Whats key is that he has the pedigree as an elite goalie. You are correct in that an at least good goalie is crucial in the playoffs. You can have a breakdown game here or there but as long as you come through in clutch time, who cares? The fact our best goalie during the entire Matthews era in this regard has been Joseph Woll speaks volumes. The fact we have faced some of the better goalies of our era on the other side makes things look even worse. If Toronto was in the West we would have probably had a couple more 2nd round finishes and maybe even a CF but this team was still never going to sniff the cup with what we have had in net and every single cup winner we have seen the last decade would have failed with a Campbell/Samsonov/Andersen keeper. Absolutely terrible in big moments. The least clutch keepers out there.


Adin Hill is a solid #1 that turned it up a notch that run. A .932 save% for the entire cup winning playoffs. He was battling injuries before and during this playoffs but managed to get back in the net athough they lost a close series but he still ended up with a .931 in 3 games . Really elevates his game in the playoffs and I dont think he gets enough love.

The aging Keumper (who was hit by injuries and played on a bad team this season) on the flip side didnt have great stats during his cup run but is known to make big saves in big moments. It's why he has both a cup ring and a WHC gold medal as a starter. The fact he was an all-star on the frigging Coyotes shows he was pretty quality in his prime. Just look at how the Avs looked without him and Georgiev instead? Now those are bad stats on the exact same team.

Both of those goalies are better than any starter we have had lately, thats for sure.

I actually think the whole "voodoo" thing gets tossed around because of just how valuable a goalie is. They play the whole game and are the last line of defense. You flip the keepers in the current finals and it could easily be 2-1 Oilers with McDavid with 10 points. It certainly turns every narrative on its head but its probably the truth of what would happen. The Panthers remain the complete team they have been for years now. They just have dont have a hot Bob in net for them and they look like the same team with the same coach crashing out of the playoffs last year due to...ding ding ding, goaltending issues. The Pens losing that game last season wasnt just them shooting themselves in the foot but was probably one of the most important events in hockey in modern times lol.

Yeah the value of elite and quality goaltending simply gives you can alternate path to victory when all else fails and can be a force multiplier in terms of team confidence as well. Those attributes alone give you a better chance to get over a hump here and there, win that 1-0 game in undeserved fashion and maybe get you far enough that your other players start to get their legs.

Great goalies can also have bad series like Oettinger, Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy vs us last year. But as management, I think that investment needs to be made and just let it play out on the ice. How about going into a series with the stronger goalie for once.

I don’t really want a rehash of how other champions did it with random goalies. We don’t have prime Sid Crosby or a Mackinnon, Rantanen, Makar led team. We aren’t the 2010s Blackhawks. We don’t have a redwood forest of defense like Vegas. We aren’t a battle hardened underdog like St. Louis with massive defense.

 

[Superstar]

Two points.

The first one is the Leafs are so far behind in the playoff evolution curve that we shouldn’t even be comparing ourselves to Stanley Cup winners at all. We struggle to win 4 playoff games let alone 4 rounds so whatever previous champions have done is not our business. We aren’t even in that class.

The only thing to do at this point is to get stronger on D and G in concrete ways and start moneyballing up front to fill the gaps on F and just hope we are different, better as a result.

Secondly, since 2020 the last 5 Stanley Cup finals have featured Bobrovsky twice, Vasilevskiy twice and Price once. So that would seem to suggest that just to get to the finals 50% of the teams that make it have a Vezina guy making $9.5 million minimum. Vasi and Bob will both walk away with one cup from the looks of things. Price lost to Vasi in 2021. No guarantees in life but I think we are long past questioning if elite goalies are worth it. We just need the right one and not a GM who doesn’t understand them or is scared to invest in one.

You mean you didn't like Mrazek or Matt Murray? We were also right there with Samsonov...

 

[Gabriel426]

Yeah the value of elite and quality goaltending simply gives you can alternate path to victory when all else fails and can be a force multiplier in terms of team confidence as well. Those attributes alone give you a better chance to get over a hump here and there, win that 1-0 game in undeserved fashion and maybe get you far enough that your other players start to get their legs.

Great goalies can also have bad series like Oettinger, Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy vs us last year. But as management, I think that investment needs to be made and just let it play out on the ice. How about going into a series with the stronger goalie for once.

I don’t really want a rehash of how other champions did it with random goalies. We don’t have prime Sid Crosby or a Mackinnon, Rantanen, Makar led team. We aren’t the 2010s Blackhawks. We don’t have a redwood forest of defense like Vegas. We aren’t a battle hardened underdog like St. Louis with massive defense.

That’s the thing though, we really don’t know about the mental fortitude of the goalie when under pressure until the goalie prove otherwise.

We saw Swayman being amazing but maybe he will crack if Bruins made it to the ECF.
We really don’t know until that goalie proves that he won’t crack under pressure.

Look at Helle and Saros, not saying they cracked but both were not great in the playoffs.

Then there are goalies like players would hit a hot streak in the playoffs and dominated like our own Felix the Cat and Silvos with the Nucks. Hence, that’s what the goalie is voodoo comes from.

At the end of the day, I think there are clearly a few stronger goalies in the league but none of them is available.

 

[Stephen]

That’s the thing though, we really don’t know about the mental fortitude of the goalie when under pressure until the goalie prove otherwise.

We saw Swayman being amazing but maybe he will crack if Bruins made it to the ECF.
We really don’t know until that goalie proves that he won’t crack under pressure.

Look at Helle and Saros, not saying they cracked but both were not great in the playoffs.

Then there are goalies like players would hit a hot streak in the playoffs and dominated like our own Felix the Cat and Silvos with the Nucks. Hence, that’s what the goalie is voodoo comes from.

At the end of the day, I think there are clearly a few stronger goalies in the league but none of them is available.

That’s where you build a goalie brain trust like Florida did with their program of excellence with Luongo, or Vancouver with Ian Clark. And you have a deeper psychological understanding of goalies and why there are money goalies, big market goalies, competitive goalies and go from there.

To say goalies are voodoo as an NHL GM and proceed to sign Mrazek. Sheer incompetence.

 

[MCR74]

They want to tank, lol

Obviously.

 

[The Shrike]

Aren't the Panthers analytics darlings, also? There are lots of ways to win. They just happen to be doing it with a good goalie. Vegas and Colorado did it with completely mediocre goalies.

Regular season NHL/Stats/Teams/SAT Counts:

1. Carolina
2. Florida
3. Edmonton

So yes, they are a modern stats team, as is Edmonton.

The fact that the 2nd and 3rd best SAT Count teams in the regular season are in the cup final speaks volumes to the relevance of these kinds of stats.

A goalie with a ridiculous Sv% can counter this of course, but if you have both, well, you are up 3-0 in the SCF.

 

[TMLife17]

Nurse
Ceci
Foegele
Kane
McLeod

Have all had pretty steep drops in effectiveness this playoffs. Probably the main culprits to blame come this evening. After the refs of course. I suspect Drai will escape much blame due to his status as the second best player to ever grace the earth and a big reason they’re here at all.

 

[PromisedLand]

View attachment 882961

Just a minor modification to a brilliant idea

 

[PromisedLand]

to all the stat nerds... for the umpteenth time.... what do we learn AGAIN regarding expected bullshit per 60 stats?

 

[MCR74]

Nurse
Ceci
Foegele
Kane
McLeod

Have all had pretty steep drops in effectiveness this playoffs. Probably the main culprits to blame come this evening. After the refs of course. I suspect Drai will escape much blame due to his status as the second best player to ever grace the earth and a big reason they’re here at all.

What about the single greatest player to grace the earth? l'm expecting much more than 3 lousy assists. If the Oilers go down tonight, l hope McDud cries during the post-game interview.

 

[TMLife17]

What about the single greatest player to grace the earth? l'm expecting much more than 3 lousy assists. If the Oilers go down tonight, l hope McDud cries during the post-game interview.

I think he will escape blame from Oil fans. They will cling to his playoff PPG like he didn't wilt harder than Marner in games 5-7.

 

[LeafsStorm]

Hope Oilers get swept

 

[PROUD PAPA]

Might as well get it over with tonight. If it were an exciting series i'd hope they stretch it out but it is what it is.

 

[PromisedLand]

Hope Oilers get swept

the sooner it is over the sooner Leafs/Treliving can start the offseason festivities

I am in favor and 2nd the motion

 

[keonsbitterness]

8-3 Oilers. Inspiration courtesy of the Dallas Mavericks.

 

[MCR74]

I think he will escape blame from Oil fans. They will cling to his playoff PPG like he didn't wilt harder than Marner in games 5-7.

Probably. Some have their heads so far up McDrai's ass, they may never see daylight.

 

[3blizzard4]

oilers GTD has 80 posts today.

 

[MCR74]

oilers GTD has 80 posts today.

Seems like they're preparing for the inevitable.

Regardless, get ready for another summer of chest pounding from their insufferable fanbase.

 

[ToneDog]

What about the single greatest player to grace the earth? l'm expecting much more than 3 lousy assists. If the Oilers go down tonight, l hope McDud cries during the post-game interview.

I hope he tells Holland to GMTFOH. McDavid + Nurse for Marner + Rielly.

 

[PromisedLand]

seems interesting.....

https://x.com/i/web/status/1801743067680281051