Honestly, f*** off with the math lmfao.....but I get what you are saying, I just have no desire to delve into it further, because you then have to look at how many picks were defense vs forward etc, and the ability to turn a D....(faber) into a F (fiala) no matter how much we hate it, or some hate it etc, I think it's a helluva lot more nuanced, than 1 every 14 years etc etc.
Sure. Every org makes trades, too. I focused on picks though, because:
1. I believe it's important to develop internally (not ALL players, but you ultimately spend more to bring in outside talent via trades and UFA signings)
2. We can't assume a desired player is available to fill a need, so the team may have to make due with what they have
Also, I was of the understanding you were talking 1st round picks.....not outside of the 1st.
Sorry if I wasn't clear. Of course, first round picks do matter because they are inherently more valuable. But organizations also have to get quality scoring depth, including the top six, outside of the top 15 picks as well as outside the first.
While people preach rebuilds and picking high, that's more secondary to me. Yes, the higher picks are more tantalizing. But I've been saying for years: amassing picks, including high picks, don't mean anything if there's rigidity or lack of vision in a player and organization's development path.
It's why teams like Buffalo struggle to get out of the lottery range or miss the playoffs. Edmonton struggled with it too, until McDavid helped them succeed despite their issues.
We've discussed Boston and Tampa as teams that haven't had to "tank" to get a top pick to carry their team. How do they make it work? They've not only hit on their later picks, but they brought them along as well.
Tampa had Stamkos and Hedman during their cup run, but they also had Point (3rd rounder), Kucherov (2nd rounder), Killorn (3rd rounder), Cirelli (3rd rounder), and Palat (7th rounder) all rounding out what was effectively their top-6 (at least their top six scoring forwards). All drafted by the Lightning.
I know this is another dissertation, but I've been saying since 2016 that I'm concerned about the output of high scoring forwards on the Kings. I first wrote it off as "well, it's the Lombardi/Sutter era," but then it just feels like we're still not doing that? I love defensive forwards and depth to game, but as Blake wanted to have more scoring, because it's more fun, you'd think we would see more of that from our prospects aside from a second overall pick.
It's not ALL the org's fault. Players don't put in the work or pan out. But when you use the same pickup line on 20 women and only one sleeps with you, it might be time to start wearing deodorant and tossing away the "Elon is my homeboi" t-shirt and try something new.