Around the League 45: The Stanley Cup is in God's Waiting Room

[AhosDatsyukian]

Tkachuk was an RFA, yes, but with only a year left and a $10M qualifying amount. If you look at the situation for both, if Drai was traded this summer, he'd have one year left with whatever team he was traded to before the new contract. That would have been the same as Tkachuck. Plus, Drai would have been CHEAPER. I don't see it as apples to oranges at all.

Yeah this.

And I don't think it's necessarily unrealistic to think that if Edmonton decided to trade him they could find a deal with an extension included. It's a very popular assumption that most guys would rather wait a year to hit UFA unless they're extending in the perfect most ideal situation, but I don't really buy that. Sure some guys may be dead set on UFA -- Guentzel being one once the Pens couldn't get a deal done with him. But there very much is a real risk of injury in that year altering their career earnings and plenty of guys aren't comfortable with that risk.

I don't know where Drai lands on that spectrum, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he would be open to signing this deal as a part of a trade to certain other teams. Yeah maybe some teams would be ruled out, but I think enough would be good enough for Drai such that the market would get Edmonton a HUGE return, similar to Tkachuk as you've mentioned.

Maybe I'm wrong and we'll probably never find out. But that's how I see it anyways

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

For me, it's less about the potential return for Drai, and more about the practicality of it.

He's a top 5 player in the NHL, who doesn't want to leave, is a cornerstone player on the team, and is on a team that just reached the SCF and lost game 7 by a single goal. I also can't imagine what impact it would have on McDavid seeing his partner in crime being traded off. Maybe he wouldn't care, but I'm not sure it's worth risking.

Unless a player wants out (like Tkachuk did), I don't recall a player of Drai's caliber, being moved 1 year from free agency. That's why I don't view it as a realistic option. Add to it that since he wanted to stay, he only had 10 teams he could be traded to without his blessing.

The last two really high end guys in their 20s traded in recent history had extenuating circumstances. Eichel and the Sabres had a relationship that wasn't salvageable and he had neck concerns. Tkachuk wanted out and made it clear.

The two teams that traded those guys have gotten worse. The two teams that acquired those guys have won a Stanley Cup with them. You just don't trade away elite talent like that unless you have no choice.

Of course, like the post above said, we'll never find out for sure.

 

[sabremike]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1830780330737049916

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Marketability and a watchable style of play should count for something.

Maybe they should, but they don't.

Winning counts. Nothing else.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Maybe they should, but they don't.

Winning counts. Nothing else.

And that, folks, is why the Toronto Maple Leafs are currently the 12th most popular team in the league.

 

[bleedgreen]

Tkachuk was an RFA, yes, but with only a year left and a $10M qualifying amount. If you look at the situation for both, if Drai was traded this summer, he'd have one year left with whatever team he was traded to before the new contract. That would have been the same as Tkachuck. Plus, Drai would have been CHEAPER. I don't see it as apples to oranges at all.

I don’t think you can ever equal out rfa vs ufa, they have your rights. Tkachuk was again a unique situation also because of the 10 million QO but that was a bluff QO and everyone knew it. It’s the same thing as KK after the offer sheet. The high QO is there so the player can force a trade if he wants out, not because he thinks he’s getting that actual amount. If Calgary wanted to force him to stay, so be it you’re paying that amount but everyone who was trading for him (including us) knew the extension wouldn’t be 10 so no I don’t think that makes it apples to apples. Ufa vs rfa makes a big difference and your one example is about as big a one off as it can be - not really a trend to base the argument off of.

Otherwise I agree with @Boom Boom Apathy that the effects of trading Drai play a bigger role than what the return is. I was just addressing the concept of “fixing the defense” through a Drai trade. I just don’t think you’d get the value to fix that well enough to justify the trade. McAvoy was used as an example and I don’t see that happening. Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

And that, folks, is why the Toronto Maple Leafs are currently the 12th most popular team in the league.

Except the Toronto Maple Leafs are not a hockey team. They are a cult. Normal rules do not apply. They fill the barn when they are absolute dog shit.

 

[hblueridgegal]

Maybe they should, but they don't.

Winning counts. Nothing else.

Star power develops the following and attachment that sells tickets and jerseys. Some have it but most do not.

As is so often stated here, only one team wins the championship. Still gotta sell hope though and entertain.

 

[Stickpucker]

He was the 8th leading scorer in the NHL as a 20 -21 year old at 6’2”, 200 lbs in 16-17 and he signed his contract in Aug 2017. Saying that nobody outside of EDM viewed him as a “top 30 forward” is a stretch.

I think it'd be fun to revisit the Faulk for Draisatl threads.

It's gotta be a gold mine.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Star power develops the following and attachment that sells tickets and jerseys. Some have it but most do not.

As is so often stated here, only one team wins the championship. Still gotta sell hope though and entertain.

To some extent.

Winning and being a good team IS entertaining and sells tickets and jerseys, as evident by the Canes sales the last 6 years. We haven't had as much star power, nor won it all, but have had more fans/ticket sales/merch sales than ever before, and thus, to the chagrin of some, price increases. The ownership created entertainment value as well through "Bunch of Jerks", the storm surge, etc...

No doubt a guy like McDavid draws fans regardless of how a team does, but If McDavid was in a non-traditional market and the team was losing regularly, the fan interest would wane over time as well.

Skinner had star power, clearly not at McDavid's level. He was young, personable, worked hard and could do things offensively that turned heads. No doubt it added fan interest and sold jerseys, yet the fan base still waned with lack of success.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Not sure if this was discussed earlier, but a shame to see Lorentz have to go the PTO route. I guess that's the life of a 4th liner though and he does have a cup win. I didn't watch him much in FLA, but a quick looks shows that he seemed to have some of the worst possession and defensive numbers among Panther's players. No idea if that was usage/teammates.

 

[Brock Anton]

Somehow Nikolai Kulemin returned.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Somehow Nikolai Kulemin returned.

 

[TheBigLetowski]

Somehow Nikolai Kulemin returned.

Didn't Timmy Gleason bash his face in way back when?

 

[sabremike]

Somehow Nikolai Kulemin returned.

I actually have one of his game worn Isles jerseys.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Not sure if this was discussed earlier, but a shame to see Lorentz have to go the PTO route. I guess that's the life of a 4th liner though and he does have a cup win. I didn't watch him much in FLA, but a quick looks shows that he seemed to have some of the worst possession and defensive numbers among Panther's players. No idea if that was usage/teammates.

He will have a long career in Europe and his name will be on the Cup forever. Pretty good outcome for a guy drafted in the 7th round.

Also, fun fact I just learned: he had more goals for the Cats in the playoffs last year (2 in 16 games) than he did in the regular season (1 in 38 games).

 

[chaz4hockey]

I suspect Canes Management feels that their hit rate will increase over the next few years:

Which teams have drafted the most NHLers in later rounds?

Teams have eyes everywhere and it’s hard for players to fly under the radar. But every once in a while, a savvy team is rewarded for taking a chance on a future star at the bottom of the draft that other teams passed on.

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[sabremike]

San Marino won a competitive match before the Pegula Sabres reached the playoffs.


Yeah...

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I suspect Canes Management feels that their hit rate will increase over the next few years:

Which teams have drafted the most NHLers in later rounds?

Teams have eyes everywhere and it’s hard for players to fly under the radar. But every once in a while, a savvy team is rewarded for taking a chance on a future star at the bottom of the draft that other teams passed on.

www.sportsnet.ca

Maybe, maybe not. I’m sure the Canes scouting staff is focused on hit rate as is their job, but the organizational philosophy seems just as focused on hit volume as hit rate.

 

[HisIceness]

The key is going to be developing these guys. Having control over the Wolves will be helpful but also being patient with the guys overseas and in the NCAA/Juniors will be beneficial.

I'm excited for the potential of the blue-line prospects. Lots of options not including Nikishin and Morrow. Forward-wise I wish we had more depth at Center. Still excited for the likes of FUS/Nadeau/Blake/Trikizov though.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Maybe, maybe not. I’m sure the Canes scouting staff is focused on hit rate as is their job, but the organizational philosophy seems just as focused on hit volume as hit rate.

Yeah I think it's pretty apparent the team views hit rate as being considerably more "luck" than scouting skill. So, get more picks, draft players whose rights you hold forever and who can develop outside our system, and hope some hit seems to be their strategy in later rounds to some degree. I personally like it, we'll start seeing how it plays out at some point here.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Yeah I think it's pretty apparent the team views hit rate as being considerably more "luck" than scouting skill. So, get more picks, draft players whose rights you hold forever and who can develop outside our system, and hope some hit seems to be their strategy in later rounds to some degree. I personally like it, we'll start seeing how it plays out at some point here.

I agree that's part of it, thus always trading down and getting more picks. On the scouting part, they seem to often choose more "boom or bust" guys or at least guys that are value picks in the sense that they dropped for reasons not always related to hockey (like Nikishin).

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

If we use this chart as a guide, we can see why the team trades down and goes for the boom or bust guys.

1. Near pick 16-17 the curve starts to flatten and the differences in probabilities of playing 100-200 games becomes slimmer. Where we are picking in the first round, we give ourselves 2 possibilities of 20+% to play 200 games by trading down from a near 40% chance. Understandably it is a gamble as both picks have over a 70% chance of not reaching that mark but the 10-18 percent swing in probabilities isnt huge and the hit percentage of the 25-32 pick isn’t great in itself. Anything before 16 is a risk to trade down as you go from a likely to get a 200+ game player to progressively not likely to play 200+ games.

2. The hit percentages of picks 60+ arent very good at all. Go for the best guy you feel can be a top 6 / top 4 guy and see who hits. Not hitting in a >15% guy isn’t much of a deal as so does everyone else all the time.

Just play the percentages.

 

[sabremike]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1832547324230504823

 

[Derailed75]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1832547324230504823

New Yorkers and adjacent, you can't take them out in public SMH!