Around the League 45: The Stanley Cup is in God's Waiting Room

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bleedgreen

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The drawback of having generational talents / truly elite players is you HAVE to find a way to keep them at all costs, even if it means paying out the @$$ for them. In just a couple years they could be looking at near $50M tied up in 4 players unless they're willing to take a massive hit on Nurse. They're going to be enormously top-heavy and rely on tweener-depth to hold down 4-5 roster spots for a few min per game and overload the top 6 F / 4 D. And again, their prospect pool is too shallow to fill-out the roster with cheap guys
I agree it’s a tough way to build a team but I think there’s some sticker shock here that might not be deserved. They’ve already been top heavy and made it within two goals of the cup, and with the cap going up this will likely be a pretty appropriate contract. I think this will be the same as a 11-12 million contract during the COVID years.

Inflation is kicking in, and it’s overdue.
 

AhosDatsyukian

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I agree it’s a tough way to build a team but I think there’s some sticker shock here that might not be deserved. They’ve already been top heavy and made it within two goals of the cup, and with the cap going up this will likely be a pretty appropriate contract. I think this will be the same as a 11-12 million contract during the COVID years.

Inflation is kicking in, and it’s overdue.
True, although they've benefitted greatly from Drai being on such a bargain contract up until this point which has surely helped them contend recently.
 

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wait, so they didn't defer 30 million or so over the next 40 years?

Well apparently this deal was done last week, but they postponed announcing it when the news of Gaudreau hit. So it’s the NEXT major contract that’s going to have money deferred, all because of Jarvis.
 
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TheReelChuckFletcher

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Was his contract viewed as a bargain when it was signed?

I remember how controversial that contract was at the time. Draisaitl wasn't yet even a PPG player when the Oilers signed him to $8.5M a season. This was before salaries really started to inflate, as well. Nobody outside of Edmonton really envisioned Draisaitl turning into a top-30 tier NHL forward, let alone the top-5 tier guy that he actually became.
 
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tarheelhockey

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I remember how controversial that contract was at the time. Draisaitl wasn't yet even a PPG player when the Oilers signed him to $8.5M a season. This was before salaries really started to inflate, as well. Nobody outside of Edmonton really envisioned Draisaitl turning into a top-30 tier NHL forward, let alone the top-5 tier guy that he actually became.

So what you’re saying is… we need to start paying our players more?
 
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Boom Boom Apathy

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I remember how controversial that contract was at the time. Draisaitl wasn't yet even a PPG player when the Oilers signed him to $8.5M a season. This was before salaries really started to inflate, as well. Nobody outside of Edmonton really envisioned Draisaitl turning into a top-30 tier NHL forward, let alone the top-5 tier guy that he actually became.
He was the 8th leading scorer in the NHL as a 20 -21 year old at 6’2”, 200 lbs in 16-17 and he signed his contract in Aug 2017. Saying that nobody outside of EDM viewed him as a “top 30 forward” is a stretch.
 
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Boom Boom Apathy

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What’s your point?
That at the time his last contract was signed, it wasn’t viewed by many/most as a bargain. I’m not saying this one will ever be viewed as a bargain, but as time goes on, it may not hinder EDM’s ability to fill out a roster as much as some think that it will today.

It doesn’t matter though as they don’t have a choice. They have to keep him and McDavid and this is what it takes.
 
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He was the 8th leading scorer in the NHL as a 20 -21 year old at 6’2”, 200 lbs in 16-17 and he signed his contract in Aug 2017. Saying that nobody outside of EDM viewed him as a “top 30 forward” is a stretch.

I remember it differently, I think the offseason it was signed it raised quite a few eyebrows as being an optimistic overpay for one season of production. Then the next season happened, and the next, and the next, and the rest was history. But you gotta remember what $8.5m was in 2017, it was a pretty big swing for Edmonton.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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I remember it differently, I think the offseason it was signed it raised quite a few eyebrows as being an optimistic overpay for one season of production. Then the next season happened, and the next, and the next, and the rest was history. But you gotta remember what $8.5m was in 2017, it was a pretty big swing for Edmonton.
That was kind of my original point. His contract wasn't viewed as a bargain when he signed it, so how contracts are viewed at the time of the signing isn't alway indicative of how they are looked at in the future, particularly with the cap increasing. This one won't be a bargain, but the impact to the roster in the future may not be as great as we think it will be today. As I said earlier though, they had no choice. They have to keep Draisaitl and McDavid and this is what it costs to do so.

I only took exception to TRCF's assertion that nobody thought Draisaitl would be a top 30 forward in the NHL. He showed tremendous improvement year over year (9 points in 37 games, 51 points in 72 games, 77 in 82 games) and as a 20-21 year old, was already the 8th leading scorer in the NHL. It's fair to say that many didn't expect him to be top 5, but to say nobody thought he'd be top 30 is a stretch IMO.
 

AhosDatsyukian

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That at the time his last contract was signed, it wasn’t viewed by many/most as a bargain. I’m not saying this one will ever be viewed as a bargain, but as time goes on, it may not hinder EDM’s ability to fill out a roster as much as some think that it will today.

It doesn’t matter though as they don’t have a choice. They have to keep him and McDavid and this is what it takes.
well in theory I suppose, although they signed him to that last contract before he broke out. He has been a $13-14M player playing for $8.5M for years now. Post I was replying to was talking about how Edmonton has succeeded even with being "top heavy." Well yes they've been somewhat top heavier but they are only getting more top heavy now with Drai being paid market value for what he has been offering on the ice recently. Cap will go up, sure, but his production almost surely will not jump like it did after he signed his first contract. Went from 29/77 player to 52/128. Right now he's a $14M player getting paid $14M. As the cap goes up maybe in the 2nd half of the deal he'll be a $16-17M player getting $14M, but that's still less of a "bargain" than the last contract and won't be immediate.

They absolutely did have a choice. McDavid is a must keep I agree with, being an all time great in a tier of his own and the face of hockey. But Drai could've been traded for McAvoy++ (or plenty of other deals). Huge upgrade on D already, another $5M in cap space to continue to improve the team along with the +'s which would be picks/prospects with likely contributions coming in on ELCs. I'm not saying that would have been the right decision, but they surely had a choice and I do think there's a chance they never sniff the Cup finals again once McDavid and Drai's next contracts kick in. It's more complex than we're making it, maybe McDavid wouldn't stay if they didn't keep Drai, although that would be a really bad sign in general and I doubt that's the case. But generally they absolutely had a choice.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

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They absolutely did have a choice. McDavid is a must keep I agree with, being an all time great in a tier of his own and the face of hockey. But Drai could've been traded for McAvoy++ (or plenty of other deals). Huge upgrade on D already, another $5M in cap space to continue to improve the team along with the +'s which would be picks/prospects with likely contributions coming in on ELCs. I'm not saying that would have been the right decision, but they surely had a choice and I do think there's a chance they never sniff the Cup finals again once McDavid and Drai's next contracts kick in. It's more complex than we're making it, maybe McDavid wouldn't stay if they didn't keep Drai, although that would be a really bad sign in general and I doubt that's the case. But generally they absolutely had a choice.
Well, in theory I suppose, but when was the last time a team traded a top 5 player in the NHL rather than re-signing him other than cases where a player demanded a trade or wouldn't re-sign? And Drai had 1 year left on his deal, so he gets a say where / if he wanted to re-sign (and he has a 10 team trade list as well). Not to mention they just made it to the ECF and what would McDavid think if they traded him.

Sounds simple on paper, but IMO, it wasn't a realistic choice.
 

bleedgreen

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No player brings back a huge return when these are the contracts they have to sign. If they traded him it would’ve been a sell off trade where they get picks and prospects. Wouldn’t be nearly as many of those or to the quality you’d wish for either. The idea that they could fix their defense by trading him never made a lot of sense to me. Maybe they get a 3/4 guy along with picks which helps but nothing they would get in trade would compare to what Drai is. Even saying they’d use the cap space to fix the d isn’t automatic, despite McD there it isn’t a hotspot for people to sign and without Drai no one would assume they’d be as good which wouldn’t help with ufa’s either.

Cap space and picks to acquire defense could take a few years to kick in effectively. McD is in his prime right now. They didn’t really have a choice.
 

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No player brings back a huge return when these are the contracts they have to sign. If they traded him it would’ve been a sell off trade where they get picks and prospects. Wouldn’t be nearly as many of those or to the quality you’d wish for either. The idea that they could fix their defense by trading him never made a lot of sense to me. Maybe they get a 3/4 guy along with picks which helps but nothing they would get in trade would compare to what Drai is. Even saying they’d use the cap space to fix the d isn’t automatic, despite McD there it isn’t a hotspot for people to sign and without Drai no one would assume they’d be as good which wouldn’t help with ufa’s either.

Cap space and picks to acquire defense could take a few years to kick in effectively. McD is in his prime right now. They didn’t really have a choice.
I am not sure I agree with you here. Tkachuk brought back more than a "sell off" trade in assets returned. Have those performed as well as hoped with their new club? No, but that was not expected, either. Had Edmonton wanted to move Dria, there should have been a trading partner that would have ponied up a trade that would have been more than picks and prospects.
 

WreckingCrew

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I am not sure I agree with you here. Tkachuk brought back more than a "sell off" trade in assets returned. Have those performed as well as hoped with their new club? No, but that was not expected, either. Had Edmonton wanted to move Dria, there should have been a trading partner that would have ponied up a trade that would have been more than picks and prospects.
Wasn't Tkachuk an RFA though? That gives a bit more control/certainty for the acquiring team.
 
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bleedgreen

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I am not sure I agree with you here. Tkachuk brought back more than a "sell off" trade in assets returned. Have those performed as well as hoped with their new club? No, but that was not expected, either. Had Edmonton wanted to move Dria, there should have been a trading partner that would have ponied up a trade that would have been more than picks and prospects.
Not exactly apples to apples though. Tkachuk was 24 (maybe 25?) and was still an rfa so there was a level of cost control as well as rights. Drai is 28 right now and it’s a ufa contract. Those are different situations entirely and would imo be impactful on trade return. Drai would be essentially a rental, and we could throw the nebulous “well a contract would be agreed on first of course…” at it but Leon would be a fool to sign one unless it was with his dream option. Tkachuk also due to his age at the time makes the huge contract that follows the trade much more palatable and desirable. You’re buying bad years of Drai here, which factors into value too assuming you could get him to sign.

The Tkachuk situation was a more unique one that inherently would bring a higher return. Drai is a year long rental when we have a pretty good idea of what a rental price is.

@WreckingCrew beat me to it.
 
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WreckingCrew

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Wasn't Tkachuk an RFA though? That gives a bit more control/certainty for the acquiring team.

Not exactly apples to apples though. Tkachuk was 24 (maybe 25?) and was still an rfa so there was a level of cost control as well as rights. Drai is 28 right now and it’s a ufa contract. Those are different situations entirely and would imo be impactful on trade return. Drai would be essentially a rental, and we could throw the nebulous “well a contract would be agreed on first of course…” at it but Leon would be a fool to sign one unless it was with his dream option. Tkachuk also due to his age at the time makes the huge contract that follows the trade much more palatable and desirable. You’re buying bad years of Drai here, which factors into value too assuming you could get him to sign.

The Tkachuk situation was a more unique one that inherently would bring a higher return. Drai is a year long rental when we have a pretty good idea of what a rental price is.

@WreckingCrew beat me to it.

Tkachuk was an RFA, yes, but with only a year left and a $10M qualifying amount. If you look at the situation for both, if Drai was traded this summer, he'd have one year left with whatever team he was traded to before the new contract. That would have been the same as Tkachuck. Plus, Drai would have been CHEAPER. I don't see it as apples to oranges at all.
 
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