Around the League 44: The Three Thousand Mile Final

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Stripping the puck then shooting a bad angle no chance shot was his specialty. He would force a turnover then turn it right back over. Then no energy left to play actual defense

 

[cptjeff]

Taking away pucks is an obvious defensive play no matter where it happens. Defense happens over 200 ft, and this is one the many reasons Datsyuk was who he was. Stripping pucks away from defenseman. It’s no different than closing a gap as a defenseman and killing a play before it barely makes it out of the zone. If you didn’t factor that ability into rating a defenseman you aren’t taking in the full picture.

Amen. When Skinner wanted the puck, he hounded and took it from opponents, and he always wanted the puck. That prevents the other team from having the puck and doing offense even if it doesn't happen in the defensive zone.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Stripping the puck then shooting a bad angle no chance shot was his specialty. He would force a turnover then turn it right back over. Then no energy left to play actual defense

So he's the perfect Hurricane compliment? Since we take lots of good angle shots but right to the goalie logo after holding it several seconds with no traffic in front?

 

[Derailed75]

Takeaways in the ozone, and to a lesser extent, the neutral zone wasn’t the issue and not a metric of defensive prowess.

Which is my point, they are not counted as a defensive metric, but they should be. Does it matter where you take the puck away from the other team? It still potentially takes away a scoring chance aka defense. Also Skinner was able to turn those into scoring chances for the Canes.
Won't ever forget a game against Buffalo I believe, we were on the kill and Skinner was pestering them in their end, stripped them of the puck and scored a shorty! Not sure how you don't count that as a defensive play

 

[Svechhammer]

Would there be anything more amusing than seeing Buffalo cut Skinner, then trade 11OA+ for Necas and see the Canes pick up Skinner on the cheap?

Would give us quality banter for a while going forward

 

[sabremike]

Putting the cap savings from buying out Skinner to use already with a major signing:

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Which is my point, they are not counted as a defensive metric, but they should be. Does it matter where you take the puck away from the other team? It still potentially takes away a scoring chance aka defense. Also Skinner was able to turn those into scoring chances for the Canes.
Won't ever forget a game against Buffalo I believe, we were on the kill and Skinner was pestering them in their end, stripped them of the puck and scored a shorty! Not sure how you don't count that as a defensive play

He wasn’t and isn’t good defensively. For years, People have pointed to takeaways as a reason to conclude he is better defensively than he really is, ignoring all other metrics and how lost he is in his own zone. That’s my point.

 

[cptjeff]

He wasn’t and isn’t good defensively. For years, People have pointed to takeaways as a reason to conclude he is better defensively than he really is, ignoring all other metrics and how lost he is in his own zone. That’s my point.

It's not a matter of ignoring how he looks in his own zone, it's about what you define as defense. Taking offensive chances away from the other team is still defense even if it doesn't take place in the defensive zone or get categorized in common 'defensive' metrics.

Nobody is arguing he's a Selke candidate. But when you insist on ignoring a major, major element of his defensive game because it doesn't fit your narrative, you're rightly going to get pushback.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

It's not a matter of ignoring how he looks in his own zone, it's about what you define as defense. Taking offensive chances away from the other team is still defense even if it doesn't take place in the defensive zone or get categorized in common 'defensive' metrics.

Nobody is arguing he's a Selke candidate. But when you insist on ignoring a major, major element of his defensive game because it doesn't fit your narrative, you're rightly going to get pushback.

Oh come on. It's not ignoring the takeaways to fit a narrative. There are tons of metrics and tons of "eye" tests that confirm he's not good defensively and takeaways aren't enough to overcome that. That's the point. Even Sabres fans comment on it (go read their forum).

It's not a "narrative", it's a conclusion backed by data, information and watching him play. My point is that takeaways don't mean he's good defensively, period.

Here's the basis of my conclusions, beyond the eye test:
- He's been a plus player twice (rookie season and the year he was with Thompson and Tuch).
- As the WAR chart shown a while back, he's 0% on defense for a 3 year average. Let me repeat that. 0%. That's awful.
- Sabres fans complain he dogs it back and is uninvolved on defense. Go look at their forum.
- Per NST, over the past 3 seasons, out of 285 forwards that have > 2000 min. TOI:
1) only 6 have a worse xGA/60 than Skinner
2) only 25 have a worse GA/60 than Skinner
3) only 5 have a worse HDCA/60 than Skinner
4) only 17 have a worse HDGA/60 that Skinner
Yet he's in the top 25% for TKA/60 over that stretch.
- Multiple coaches across both Carolina and Buffalo have demoted him to the 3rd line for stretches because of his defensive deficiencies.
- He's gotten more offensive zone starts 5v5 than any other Sabres forward (68.4% over the past 3 seasons).
- He doesn't face the toughest competition
- Over the past 3 seasons, he had 129 takeaways, but also 131 giveaways.
- He's about to be bought out (which I know his cap hit plays a part in).

So the conclusion is that the takeaways are either (a) not as important to overall defense and thus not improving his numbers or (b) he's so bad in other aspects that it swamps out the benefit from takeaways. Either way, the overall metrics are bad.

There's tons of data and plenty of film that show he's bad defensively, so using takeaways to try to alter that conclusion is indeed pushing a narrative.

This isn't dumping on Skinner. I loved him as a player here. He's one of the most natural goal scorers in the NHL, but I can recognize that he's bad defensively as well.

 

[AD Skinner]

Skinner was the right player for us, wrong time. Perhaps had the team not choked in that game 82 in 2011 for all we know he could have been the Conn Symthe winner.

But they choked and he became odd man out when the new regime took over.

That really was a solid team and I’m still kinda bummed they didn’t get a chance to shine in the playoffs. Oh well

 

[MinJaBen]

I could be the world champion of drinking water, but you drop me in the middle of Lake Michigan and there is no way I can drink my way out of drowning.

Jeff Skinner can be the best takeaway guy in the league and takeaways can be a valid defensive measure, and also be so bad at defense overall that the takeaways aren't a drop in the bucket.

 

[SlavinAway]

I could be the world champion of drinking water, but you drop me in the middle of Lake Michigan and there is no way I can drink my way out of drowning.

Jeff Skinner can be the best takeaway guy in the league and takeaways can be a valid defensive measure, and also be so bad at defense overall that the takeaways aren't a drop in the bucket.

This is a fantastic analogy. Kudos sir!

 

[Svechhammer]

I could be the world champion of drinking water, but you drop me in the middle of Lake Michigan and there is no way I can drink my way out of drowning.

Jeff Skinner can be the best takeaway guy in the league and takeaways can be a valid defensive measure, and also be so bad at defense overall that the takeaways aren't a drop in the bucket.

Yeah I mean when one of your closest comparables is Tony DeAngelo, its tough to really argue that you're good at defense. Offense, sure, but there's a reason why the pure offense, no defense guys are quickly getting shuffled out of the league.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

TDA has a partner in the 2 times buyout crowd, Ryan Suter

 

[MinJaBen]

TDA has a partner in the 2 times buyout crowd, Ryan Suter

Our third pairing next year.

 

[AD Skinner]

Maybe it’s just me getting older now but in a way it’s kind of a shame that the one-dimensional players are getting phased out with every young player being so good at everything. Like it was kinda cool in its own way to have such varying skill profiles in the league as like a Brett Hull who couldn’t really skate but was a wizard with the puck or like a Hal Gill who couldn’t really do much with the puck but was good at making life hell for forwards… I know it’s natural evolution and of course every player wants to be well rounded and is coached to be well rounded. Anyway I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time

 

[WreckingCrew]

Rags fans think they can get a + value asset out of an un-retained Trouba?

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Rags fans think they can get a + value asset out of an un-retained Trouba?

They're too used to the Old Boys Club getting them out of a jam!

 

[cptjeff]

Oh come on. It's not ignoring the takeaways to fit a narrative. There are tons of metrics and tons of "eye" tests that confirm he's not good defensively and takeaways aren't enough to overcome that. That's the point. Even Sabres fans comment on it (go read their forum).

It's not a "narrative", it's a conclusion backed by data, information and watching him play. My point is that takeaways don't mean he's good defensively, period.

Here's the basis of my conclusions, beyond the eye test:
- He's been a plus player twice (rookie season and the year he was with Thompson and Tuch).
- As the WAR chart shown a while back, he's 0% on defense for a 3 year average. Let me repeat that. 0%. That's awful.
- Sabres fans complain he dogs it back and is uninvolved on defense. Go look at their forum.
- Per NST, over the past 3 seasons, out of 285 forwards that have > 2000 min. TOI:
1) only 6 have a worse xGA/60 than Skinner
2) only 25 have a worse GA/60 than Skinner
3) only 5 have a worse HDCA/60 than Skinner
4) only 17 have a worse HDGA/60 that Skinner
Yet he's in the top 25% for TKA/60 over that stretch.
- Multiple coaches across both Carolina and Buffalo have demoted him to the 3rd line for stretches because of his defensive deficiencies.
- He's gotten more offensive zone starts 5v5 than any other Sabres forward (68.4% over the past 3 seasons).
- He doesn't face the toughest competition
- Over the past 3 seasons, he had 129 takeaways, but also 131 giveaways.
- He's about to be bought out (which I know his cap hit plays a part in).

So the conclusion is that the takeaways are either (a) not as important to overall defense and thus not improving his numbers or (b) he's so bad in other aspects that it swamps out the benefit from takeaways. Either way, the overall metrics are bad.

There's tons of data and plenty of film that show he's bad defensively, so using takeaways to try to alter that conclusion is indeed pushing a narrative.

This isn't dumping on Skinner. I loved him as a player here. He's one of the most natural goal scorers in the NHL, but I can recognize that he's bad defensively as well.

Nobody is saying he's good defensively. Literally nobody. "Not as bad as many metrics claim because he has elements to his game that aren't traditional defense but have defensive effects" is a totally different argument, and one that is rarely engaged in any sort of good faith. What you are doing is a strawman argument- you pretend your opponents are arguing something they aren't arguing, and then argue against that imagined position, not the one they're actually taking.

 

[DaveG]

Rags fans think they can get a + value asset out of an un-retained Trouba?

I mean, depends on if they think "slightly less bad cap dump" constitutes a + value asset LOL

Trouba is like Nurse. If he's making half of what he does in terms of cap hit he's a non-issue. But he's not, he's overpaid to literally twice what he should be.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

4 x 3.25 mil for Joshua? ok.

 

[SlavinAway]

4 x 3.25 mil for Joshua? ok.

Seems like a reasonable deal to me.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

4 x 3.25 mil for Joshua? ok.

Martinook = #hegone... unless Brind'Amour has a say and he somehow gets a 5th year to lower the cap hit... never say never, but I think the Canes may try to find the next Martinook at this point.

 

[A Star is Burns]

If Joshua maintains or improves on his play and production last year, that's fine to good. But it does have a decent chance of being quite bad.

 

[WreckingCrew]

If Joshua maintains or improves on his play and production last year, that's fine to good. But it does have a decent chance of being quite bad.

There's a decent chance of this being a "buy high" scenario