Around the League 36-But Who's Counting...

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I can't believe people are actually debating the fair value of the Bedard pick. I guess it's something to talk about but in real life doesn't matter because no one that gets the pick is realistically going to trade it and no team with the assets to trade for it is realistically going to give up the package to get it. We can debate all we want how he's not on McDavid or Crosby's level but he's getting very similar hype.

That's exactly what the discussion is. There's no chance it happens, but it's something to talk about.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Knowing half of the guys on the list aren’t truly 1Cs just play it

(Nancy pelosi clap)

It ain’t happening for a true 1C

If half the 1Cs in the league aren’t 1Cs, the term loses any meaning.

Aho, Barkov, Barzal, Bergeron, Couturier, Crosby, Dubois, Hintz, Hughes, Kopitar, Lindholm, Matthews, McDavid, McKinnon, Point, Stutzle, Thompson, Zibanejad. That’s 56% of the list and none of them are even controversial. The next tier are guys like Larkin, Zegras, Horvat, Suzuki, Beniers. O’Reilly has been bad this year because he’s been playing injured, but in a normal year he’s easily on this list (and is a cautionary tale for why you don’t hold onto a player like him if someone’s offering a Bedard). That’s 24 out of 32 without touching guys like Couture or Eriksson Ek.

There are a handful of teams who clearly have two of them, which is why we can knock names like Boyd and Parssinen off the bottom to get to 32. But three-quarters of that list actually are 1Cs. The fact is that a bunch of them are players you’d trade straight-up for Bedard without thinking hard about it, largely because of their age/contract in light of their team situation.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

If half the 1Cs in the league aren’t 1Cs, the term loses any meaning.

Aho, Barkov, Barzal, Bergeron, Couturier, Crosby, Dubois, Hintz, Hughes, Kopitar, Lindholm, Matthews, McDavid, McKinnon, Point, Stutzle, Thompson, Zibanejad. That’s 56% of the list and none of them are even controversial. The next tier are guys like Larkin, Zegras, Horvat, Suzuki, Beniers. O’Reilly has been bad this year because he’s been playing injured, but in a normal year he’s easily on this list (and is a cautionary tale for why you don’t hold onto a player like him if someone’s offering a Bedard). That’s 24 out of 32 without touching guys like Couture or Eriksson Ek.

There are a handful of teams who clearly have two of them, which is why we can knock names like Boyd and Parssinen off the bottom to get to 32. But three-quarters of that list actually are 1Cs. The fact is that a bunch of them are players you’d trade straight-up for Bedard without thinking hard about it, largely because of their age/contract in light of their team situation.

Good because I don't know who those people are.

 

[tarheelhockey]

So I take it the coin flip came out tails?

I think I actually moved him up a tier and forgot to delete the prior listing.

It’s not that Thompson is necessarily a top-5 center at present, but under these circumstances it’s just unthinkable that Buffalo would trade him even for a top-level prospect. Doing what he’s doing at $7.1M, in context of how long that organization has been waiting for a player of his caliber, there’s just a unique layer of plot armor around him right now.

As I mentioned above, my view is no chance on Point. TBL are like the Pens when JR took over. They aren't concerned about the possibility of another franchise player, they are concerned about winning as many titles as possible while Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, Vasilevsky etc.. are still playing high level hockey.

Point is so under-rated on HF. He's only 26 and will be elite for many years to come. He's the key cog in TB's offense IMO. It's not surprising they looked mortal when he went down in the playoffs.

Point turns 27 in March, and while he will undoubtedly be elite for a long time he’s likely at his peak right now. What he looks like in 3 years, 5 years is likely a step down… still a good player, don’t get me wrong, but arguably no longer a top-10 center at that point. Bedard is likely to be a top-10 center in 5 years, a Hughes level player or at worst another Point.

Kucherov turns 30 this year. Hedman is 32. Stamkos is about to turn 33. Even guys like Killorn and Maroon are 32-33. What does this group look like in 3 years? They’ll be in that Penguins post-powerhouse dilemma of being in right in heat of the race but no longer a favorite, and headed in the wrong direction. Father Time is undefeated.

Don’t get me wrong, it would be a difficult pill to swallow, but laying down the foundation for the next 10+ years would be the long term winning move. To make a shaky comparison, it’s like asking the 2004 Lightning if they would trade Lecavalier for… let’s say Malkin or Toews. A Cup-winning team doesn’t want to trade their franchise center, obviously, but that’s a trade that skips the need to go through a tank phase with relatively low short term pain. And then consider what you can do with $8M of cap space short term. It’s like us with Aho, it would suck in 2023-25 and then we’d quickly come to terms with it.

 

[MadeUpName]

There are a handful of players in the league that have more raw asset value than Bedard. If Carolina could swap out Aho for Bedard, particularly considering the ELC, then that would be a very easy yes.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

There are a handful of players in the league that have more raw asset value than Bedard. If Carolina could swap out Aho for Bedard, particularly considering the ELC, then that would be a very easy yes.

That would be a mistake. Aho is a 80-90 point guy. Bedard is a 0 point guy right now.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Point turns 27 in March, and while he will undoubtedly be elite for a long time he’s likely at his peak right now. What he looks like in 3 years, 5 years is likely a step down… still a good player, don’t get me wrong, but arguably no longer a top-10 center at that point. Bedard is likely to be a top-10 center in 5 years, a Hughes level player or at worst another Point.

Kucherov turns 30 this year. Hedman is 32. Stamkos is about to turn 33. Even guys like Killorn and Maroon are 32-33. What does this group look like in 3 years? They’ll be in that Penguins post-powerhouse dilemma of being in right in heat of the race but no longer a favorite, and headed in the wrong direction. Father Time is undefeated.

Don’t get me wrong, it would be a difficult pill to swallow, but laying down the foundation for the next 10+ years would be the long term winning move. To make a shaky comparison, it’s like asking the 2004 Lightning if they would trade Lecavalier for… let’s say Malkin or Toews. A Cup-winning team doesn’t want to trade their franchise center, obviously, but that’s a trade that skips the need to go through a tank phase with relatively low short term pain. And then consider what you can do with $8M of cap space short term. It’s like us with Aho, it would suck in 2023-25 and then we’d quickly come to terms with it.

You put him in the "Teams that would be conflicted, but still significantly likely to do it" category.

I get the reasons for your rationale, but I'm saying I 100% disagree with the assessment "significantly likely to do it". They are still in a prime cup window now and for the next few years. He's the key cog in that team. There's almost no chance they would do it.

By the same token, you put Crosby in "coin flip or better to decline". Bedard would be a huge jumpstart the Pens rebuild as their cup window is narrow at best. Setting the star power name aside, Pittsburgh, IMO has way more incentive to make a move like that than TB.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

I can't believe people are actually debating the fair value of the Bedard pick. I guess it's something to talk about but in real life doesn't matter because no one that gets the pick is realistically going to trade it and no team with the assets to trade for it is realistically going to give up the package to get it. We can debate all we want how he's not on McDavid or Crosby's level but he's getting very similar hype.

Agree it's all a really pointless discussion. That pick will never be traded. But we are degenerate arguers so that reality won't stop us!


Aho > Bedard right now easily, even taking into account contract situation. That could change a year from now once we see him play in the big leagues but until then I wouldn't even consider giving up Aho. He's a proven elite goal scoring center, that's way too much to give up for any prospect no matter how heralded he is.

 

[tarheelhockey]

You put him in the "Teams that would be conflicted, but still significantly likely to do it" category.

I get the reasons for your rationale, but I'm saying I 100% disagree with the assessment "significantly likely to do it". They are still in a prime cup window now and for the next few years. He's the key cog in that team. There's almost no chance they would do it.

By the same token, you put Crosby in "coin flip or better to decline". Bedard would be a huge jumpstart the Pens rebuild as their cup window is narrow at best. Setting the star power name aside, Pittsburgh, IMO has way more incentive to make a move like that than TB.

Crosby's star power is the only reason I put the Pens where they are. There's simply no way they trade Crosby, not for any price, unless Crosby himself is the source of the request. It's like Thompson and Buffalo, there's more to it than the hockey trade.

From a hockey standpoint, as good as Crosby still is you're talking about a guy who's 36 next year, on a team that doesn't have much reason to believe they'll be contending past 2025. Inserting a top-tier prospect at this moment would completely change their trajectory, like Datsyuk's breakout in Detroit. But, the off-ice implications of that trade would likely make Bedard the next Jimmy Carson. They just wouldn't do it.

 

[chaz4hockey]

DeBrusk moved to LTIR and expected out at least 4 weeks.

Canes have an opportunity to make up ground on the B’s particularly with the number of road games they have to finish the season.

 

[MadeUpName]

That would be a mistake. Aho is a 80-90 point guy. Bedard is a 0 point guy right now.

I hear what you are saying and prospects do get overrated.

But there were also posters pre-McDavid draft saying that he hadn't accomplished anything yet so he wasn't that special. This take sounds like those posts.

Bedard just put up the second best WJC ever and it isn't even over. He was 17. The best ever was Peter Forsberg as a 19 year old.

 

[surfzone365]

An extremely rare time I pull for the Preds....beat Craps 3-2

 

[Blueline Bomber]

An extremely rare time I pull for the Preds....beat Craps 3-2

Different goalie in net, still made 30 out of 32 saves.

It's Nashville's defense blocking shots, as usual. Same problem we ran into.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Different goalie in net, still made 30 out of 32 saves.

It's Nashville's defense blocking shots, as usual. Same problem we ran into.

I mean the Canes had 67 shots on goal. They couldn’t have blocked that many.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I mean the Canes had 67 shots on goal. They couldn’t have blocked that many.

They blocked 21 against Carolina. So the Canes threw 88 shots that were either on goal, or blocked.

They also blocked 21 against Washington.

EDIT: the top teams in blocks (per 60 min) this year are:

1) Vegas
2) Philly
3) CLB
4) NYI
5) LAK
6) NSH

So Nashville is up there, but so is our next opponent, Columbus.

 

[Tryamw]

They blocked 21 against Carolina. So the Canes threw 88 shots that were either on goal, or blocked.

They also blocked 21 against Washington.

EDIT: the top teams in blocks (per 60 min) this year are:

1) Vegas
2) Philly
3) CLB
4) NYI
5) LAK
6) NSH

So Nashville is up there, but so is our next opponent, Columbus.

So we Are Domed... Prepare the Wax!. I want the dome shining by morning..

 

[Sens1Canes2]

They blocked 21 against Carolina. So the Canes threw 88 shots that were either on goal, or blocked.

They also blocked 21 against Washington.

EDIT: the top teams in blocks (per 60 min) this year are:

1) Vegas
2) Philly
3) CLB
4) NYI
5) LAK
6) NSH

So Nashville is up there, but so is our next opponent, Columbus.

Sens played CBJ the other night … my goodness, they were bad. I’m expecting a lopsided Canes win (cringe).

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Who’s turn for GDT?

 

[AD Skinner]

I want the dome shining by morning..

As you wish

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

backstrom and Wilson coming back tomorrow? Washington will get tougher and goonier.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

backstrom and Wilson coming back tomorrow? Washington will get tougher and goonier.

How long should you really expect Backstrom to play though?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

How long should you really expect Backstrom to play though?

At least one game

 

[Stickpucker]

Who’s turn for GDT?

I nominate @Boom Boom Apathy !!

 

[Negan4Coach]

I mean the Canes had 67 shots on goal. They couldn’t have blocked that many.

Yeah but they also crawl around on the ice like cockroaches infront of the net, making it impossible to shoot from anywhere except the perimeter

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Florida not doing well. That Chariot trade looking worse as the season goes on