Around the League 36-But Who's Counting...

[hblueridgegal]

 

[WreckingCrew]

Jakub Vrana on waivers, which is... certainly a decision one could make. I realize he's been in the Player's Assistance Program for most of the year, and makes a good chunk of change for another year, but that's a legitimate goal scorer on waivers.

Since 2020-21, Vrana ranks 2nd behind only Auston Matthews in 5v5 goals per 60 minutes.

He's also only played 78 games over the last 3 seasons, and was 0-0-0 & -5 in his 3 game AHL conditioning stint just recently

 

[Blueline Bomber]

So say Montreal wins the lottery and (theoretically) Bedard.

Aho + what gets them interested in trading that pick?

 

[Derailed75]

So say Montreal wins the lottery and (theoretically) Bedard.

Aho + what gets them interested in trading that pick?

In what world would the Borg want to trade a star player for a pick? Even Bedard. He is nothing but potential right now. Also Aho is no where near old enough to start thinking about getting rid of.

No offense BLB but this is a dumb post.

 

[bleedgreen]

Vrana is not healthy right now. He’s self admitted he’s really out of shape which is why they extended his conditioning stint. Those kinds of treatments can involve medications, wouldn’t be weird to be overweight and out of shape even if he tried to keep up while in treatment.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

In what world would the Borg want to trade a star player for a pick? Even Bedard. He is nothing but potential right now. Also Aho is no where near old enough to start thinking about getting rid of.

No offense BLB but this is a dumb post.

Bedard is very quickly looking like he could be another McDavid, and you can't give up an easily movable asset for that. You have to give up something that'll hurt to move.

Aho's contract is only for a few more years before he'll likely ask for a raise, and Montreal has already shown an interest in him.

 

[Canes]

Bedard is very quickly looking like he could be another McDavid, and you can't give up an easily movable asset for that. You have to give up something that'll hurt to move.

Aho's contract is only for a few more years before he'll likely ask for a raise, and Montreal has already shown an interest in him.

No one is trading the Bedard pick. Unless it's a Lindros type situation which could happen to say Arizona. But Aho + would be laughed at. We'd literally have to give up half our team. Bedard is that hyped it would be suicide for a terrible rebuilding team trade the pick.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

No one is trading the Bedard pick. Unless it's a Lindros type situation which could happen to say Arizona. But Aho + would be laughed at. We'd literally have to give up half our team. Bedard is that hyped it would be suicide for a terrible rebuilding team trade the pick.

Prospects don’t have that kind of value. Bedard or not. He is just a prospect at this point. While he looks like a world class player, he can still be a bust

 

[LostInaLostWorld]

Prospects don’t have that kind of value. Bedard or not. He is just a prospect at this point. While he looks like a world class player, he can still be a bust

Yeah. But as @Canes referred to, no GM will get fired by holding the concensus 1OA/very possible generational talent pick which ends up a bust down the road. A GM will get fired/laughed at for trading away that pick.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Yeah. But as @Canes referred to, no GM will get fired by holding the concensus 1OA/very possible generational talent pick which ends up a bust down the road. A GM will get fired/laughed at for trading away that pick.

GMs are laughed at for their moves either way. Im not saying Montreal would trade it away but even then “half our team” isn’t the value for a 1OA

 

[Canes]

GMs are laughed at for their moves either way. Im not saying Montreal would trade it away but even then “half our team” isn’t the value for a 1OA

I didn't literally mean half of our team. But Aho, a few other good roster players, and 1sts would be going the other way if Montreal or another team's GM was bold enough to actually trade the pick, whether that's fair for us or not. You're going to overpay through the nose to if you even get a real chance to trade for the pick, which no one will. That's just the reality of the situation.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I didn't literally mean half of our team. But Aho, a few other good roster players, and 1sts would be going the other way if Montreal or another team's GM was bold enough to actually trade the pick, whether that's fair for us or not. You're going to overpay through the nose to if you even get a real chance to trade for the pick, which no one will. That's just the reality of the situation.

Again prospects don’t have those values. Not even close. Extended Aho maybe but even then you are trading an established 1C for a magic bean. A 1C is already overpaying. Bedard looks fantastic against peers. That means very little when playing against men who are all better than any prospect on the ice. That is reality.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

So say Montreal wins the lottery and (theoretically) Bedard.

Aho + what gets them interested in trading that pick?

Why would they trade that pick for Aho +? By all accounts Bedard (if he pans out) is likely to be a superior player to Aho at his peak and a trade for Aho (and futures) doesn't but Montreal any closer to wining a cup.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Why would they trade that pick for Aho +? By all accounts Bedard (if he pans out) is likely to be a superior player to Aho at his peak and a trade for Aho (and futures) doesn't but Montreal any closer to wining a cup.

Because there isn’t a guarantee he is better than Aho. Also why we wouldn’t trade Aho for 1OA. Both teams would be taking a risk, although Montreal’s would be smaller.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Because there isn’t a guarantee he is better than Aho. Also why we wouldn’t trade Aho for 1OA. Both teams would be taking a risk, although Montreal’s would be smaller.

And even if he "only" becomes as good as Aho, trading for Aho gives MTL a few more years of talent surrounding Caufield, Dach, etc before Bedard develops into that.

 

[MinJaBen]

Again prospects don’t have those values. Not even close. Extended Aho maybe but even then you are trading an established 1C for a magic bean. A 1C is already overpaying. Bedard looks fantastic against peers. That means very little when playing against men who are all better than any prospect on the ice. That is reality.

You are wrong, though. The potential of being able to have a "McDavid/Gretzky" type player on an ELC is worth way more to a team that is not in their window than a 1C that is two years away from a probable $10M contract.

Value is what someone would pay or would have to pay, and the owner of the 1OA for 2023 is going to set it ridiculously high. And that will be the value, like it or not.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

You are wrong, though. The potential of being able to have a "McDavid/Gretzky" type player on an ELC is worth way more to a team that is not in their window than a 1C that is two years away from a probable $10M contract.

Value is what someone would pay or would have to pay, and the owner of the 1OA for 2023 is going to set it ridiculously high. And that will be the value, like it or not.

Its why it won’t move and why they don’t move. Montreal will want a lot but no team is selling a 1C plus for a magic bean. The team selling the 1C has too many chances to lose than they do win.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

So say Montreal wins the lottery and (theoretically) Bedard.

Aho + what gets them interested in trading that pick?

Wasn’t there a thing about not winning the lottery twice in a certain amount of time? When does that kick in?

EDIT: just checked, cannot win MORE than twice in a 5 year period. So Montreal would be done for 3 more years after this if they win. I think they’d happily do that for Bedard lol.

 

[Derailed75]

Its why it won’t move and why they don’t move. Montreal will want a lot but no team is selling a 1C plus for a magic bean. The team selling the 1C has too many chances to lose than they do win.

This, it will never happen. 1 the team that wins the pick has the least risk. He is a consensus #1 the GM will take little to no flak if he doesnt pan out 2 If he is only really good you have him on an ELC 3. The team trading for him has 99 ways to lose that trade and only 1 way to win it, he would absolutely have to be much better then Aho and in pretty short order (year 2) or the trade would be a loss.

Its just a dumb though plain and simple. That pick isnt worth anything to any team except the one that wins the draft lottery, not by that value anyway.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Injuries always impact results….Bruins key player loss:

 

[tarheelhockey]

It’s why it won’t move and why they don’t move. Montreal will want a lot but no team is selling a 1C plus for a magic bean. The team selling the 1C has too many chances to lose than they do win.

At least half the teams in the league would trade their 1C for that pick. At least.

Edit: thinking this all the way through…

Teams that would fall all over themselves to do it:
Arizona (Boyd)
Calgary (Lindholm)
Chicago (Domi)
Columbus (Jenner)
Detroit (Larkin)
Minnesota (Eriksson Ek)
Nashville (Parssinen)
Philadelphia (Couturier)
San Jose (Couture)
Vancouver (Horvat)
Vegas (Stephenson)
Washington (Kuznetsov)

Teams that would be conflicted, but still significantly likely to do it:
Boston (Bergeron)
Dallas (Hintz)
Los Angeles (Kopitar)
Islanders (Barzal)
Rangers (Zibanejad)
St Louis (O’Reilly)
Tampa (Point)
Winnipeg (Dubois)

Teams that would be a coin flip or better to decline:
Anaheim (Zegras)
Buffalo (Thompson)
Florida (Barkov)
Montreal (Suzuki)
Ottawa (Stutzle)
Pittsburgh (Crosby)
Seattle (Beniers)

Teams that would just be a hard no:
Buffalo (Thompson)
Colorado (MacKinnon)
Edmonton (McDavid)
New Jersey (Hughes)
Toronto (Matthews)

Some of these are really hard calls. A lot of it has to do with how the incumbent 1C’s career stage matches up with the development of the team around him. Guys like Zegras and Suzuki may not end up as good as Bedard, but they’re so young and integral to their franchises that you don’t risk flipping them for another young guy. Hintz and Barzal are tough to walk away from, but I have to think their teams would sell high on them in order to get that truly elite 1C down the road. Point is similar, but I think if you’re Tampa you bet on your C depth for a couple of years in order to integrate yet another franchise player for the long term.

Where do the Canes and Aho fall into this mix? My guess is category #2, if only for financial reasons. It might mean a step back for a year or two, but it’s a safe bet that Bedard is a 1C on an ELC in three years and that would have a dramatic effect on our “window”.

 

[bleedgreen]

I don’t know that he’s the one I’d trade the farm for. I don’t see him as a McDavid or Crosby. I think there’s a chance he’s going to be more of a Matthews or Mackinnon…he may even end up a winger which reduces his impact as well. That’s someone you make a move for if you can get ‘em of course, but I wouldn’t be putting together a Lindros package.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Teams that would be conflicted, but still significantly likely to do it:
Boston (Bergeron)
Dallas (Hintz)
Los Angeles (Kopitar)
Islanders (Barzal)
Rangers (Zibanejad)
St Louis (O’Reilly)
Tampa (Point)
Winnipeg (Dubois)

I think there's zero chance that TBL would trade Point. He's so underrated. If he's healthy, there's a fair chance TBL wins a 3rd straight title. He's that good. He'd be in one of the last two categories for certain.
STL is already considering trading ROR, so I'd say they are in the first category.
Bergeron is a UFA after this season, so it's a moot point.

Teams that would be a coin flip or better to decline:
Anaheim (Zegras)
Buffalo (Thompson)
Florida (Barkov)
Montreal (Suzuki)
Ottawa (Stutzle)
Pittsburgh (Crosby)
Seattle (Beniers)

Teams that would just be a hard no:
Buffalo (Thompson)
Colorado (MacKinnon)
Edmonton (McDavid)
New Jersey (Hughes)
Toronto (Matthews)

So I take it the coin flip came out tails?

Point is similar, but I think if you’re Tampa you bet on your C depth for a couple of years in order to integrate yet another franchise player for the long term.

As I mentioned above, my view is no chance on Point. TBL are like the Pens when JR took over. They aren't concerned about the possibility of another franchise player, they are concerned about winning as many titles as possible while Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, Vasilevsky etc.. are still playing high level hockey.

Point is so under-rated on HF. He's only 26 and will be elite for many years to come. He's the key cog in TB's offense IMO. It's not surprising they looked mortal when he went down in the playoffs.

 

[Canes]

I can't believe people are actually debating the fair value of the Bedard pick. I guess it's something to talk about but in real life doesn't matter because no one that gets the pick is realistically going to trade it and no team with the assets to trade for it is realistically going to give up the package to get it. We can debate all we want how he's not on McDavid or Crosby's level but he's getting very similar hype.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

At least half the teams in the league would trade their 1C for that pick. At least.

Edit: thinking this all the way through…

Teams that would fall all over themselves to do it:
Arizona (Boyd)
Calgary (Lindholm)
Chicago (Domi)
Columbus (Jenner)
Detroit (Larkin)
Minnesota (Eriksson Ek)
Nashville (Parssinen)
Philadelphia (Couturier)
San Jose (Couture)
Vancouver (Horvat)
Vegas (Stephenson)
Washington (Kuznetsov)

Teams that would be conflicted, but still significantly likely to do it:
Boston (Bergeron)
Dallas (Hintz)
Los Angeles (Kopitar)
Islanders (Barzal)
Rangers (Zibanejad)
St Louis (O’Reilly)
Tampa (Point)
Winnipeg (Dubois)

Teams that would be a coin flip or better to decline:
Anaheim (Zegras)
Buffalo (Thompson)
Florida (Barkov)
Montreal (Suzuki)
Ottawa (Stutzle)
Pittsburgh (Crosby)
Seattle (Beniers)

Teams that would just be a hard no:
Buffalo (Thompson)
Colorado (MacKinnon)
Edmonton (McDavid)
New Jersey (Hughes)
Toronto (Matthews)

Some of these are really hard calls. A lot of it has to do with how the incumbent 1C’s career stage matches up with the development of the team around him. Guys like Zegras and Suzuki may not end up as good as Bedard, but they’re so young and integral to their franchises that you don’t risk flipping them for another young guy. Hintz and Barzal are tough to walk away from, but I have to think their teams would sell high on them in order to get that truly elite 1C down the road. Point is similar, but I think if you’re Tampa you bet on your C depth for a couple of years in order to integrate yet another franchise player for the long term.

Where do the Canes and Aho fall into this mix? My guess is category #2, if only for financial reasons. It might mean a step back for a year or two, but it’s a safe bet that Bedard is a 1C on an ELC in three years and that would have a dramatic effect on our “window”.

Knowing half of the guys on the list aren’t truly 1Cs just play it

(Nancy pelosi clap)

It ain’t happening for a true 1C