Around the League - 2023 Offseason Edition
- Thread starter Ceremony
- Start date
- Status
NorthernAvsFan
Registered User
- Jun 25, 2014
- 1,707
- 3,946
I don’t know… there’s a lot of other ways to enforce a power dynamic. I’m skeptical.
UncleRisto
Not Great, Bob!
Other ways, but not many as psycho.
I had a really good set of interviews with the Tigers a few months back. Too bad it didn't work out salary wise
- Aug 25, 2006
- 10,141
- 8,790
I am not going to argue about regression at around 30+ (now 28+ according to some) because it certainly happens. With that said I think this whole narrative that teams rarely win with an older core is less due to regression of the stars but more due to cap issues. Those ~30 yr old stars are always paid much more money than earlier in their career which then affects the depth of team which then affects the secondary scoring which often in turn affects the quality of players those stars play with. And guess what that now affects the stars' production which sometimes could be seen as regression.
Again I'm not saying it doesn't happen...just saying sometimes it could be explained from other reasons. Heck even a less skilled defense could explain "regression" for star forwards because if those dmen can't get the puck to the forwards than obviously they will produce less.
Again I'm not saying it doesn't happen...just saying sometimes it could be explained from other reasons. Heck even a less skilled defense could explain "regression" for star forwards because if those dmen can't get the puck to the forwards than obviously they will produce less.
There's a number of different aspects that tie into the reason why older cores don't win.
Regression is just one of those factors buts it's also an obvious one with clearly defined data points and tracking that goes back decades. Which makes it all the more laughable when people try to argue against it. Literally arguing against decades of data and analysis that came to a pretty concrete conclusion.
I would also agree that factors like the salary cap and player salaries play a role in it as well. As does injuries and how those tend to ramp up as players age and recovery times increase(Though this is pretty closely ties to simple regression).
At the end of the day, lots of factors play a role but it is a reality that we live in(Well some don't I guess) that it is extremely rare for older cores to actually win cups in the NHL. Doesn't mean it can't happen(Vegas in some ways did just last year), but it's definitely rare. And the Avs are quickly approaching that old core level. They're a Top 10 oldest team in the league this year and within 2 years, they'll be in the Top 5 with pretty much the entire core being 30+ at that point.
Doesn't mean the Avs can't win another cup, it just means they should be way more aggressive right now and trying to strike while the iron is hot. In ~3 years from now it will be damn near impossible to win when the core guys are all 30+ AND making way more money than a lot of them are making today.
It would be so funny if Stamkos prices himself out of Tampa's structure and joins the Leafs on a 5x10.5 just in time for his play to fall off a cliff. Picture his potential contract with them and Tavares at the same time lol.
- Aug 25, 2006
- 10,141
- 8,790
Not disagree with you overall but one could also argue that those decades of stats don't dig too deep into the reasons why a player's production tend to decrease around 30. I personally haven't looked at those very much so I could be wrong but aren't they mostly just looking at points versus quality of linemates, injuries, cap, etc.? Like we both said lots of reasons could explain what seems to be a regression.
Bill Peckerskull
Fargin' Icehole
If the sample size was smaller, sure you could certainly make the argument about other factors.
But with such a large sample size over such a long period and with such a direct correlation to age.. It just is what it is honestly. Which isn't to say other factors don't play a role, I'm sure they do, but the primary driving force for regression is definitely just age. Father time is undefeated and will always be undefeated.
Foppa2118
Registered User
- Oct 3, 2003
- 53,544
- 33,934
I don't disagree with that. That was in response to a specific point that we shouldn't expect Brisebois to come out and say Stamkos sucked the last two years. I was just saying that Brisebois wouldn't have thought that, because statistically the last two have been his best two year stretch.
The regression issue is separate point. The way people use "regression" is in conjunction with the Cup window closing. They're saying they can't be a contender when they get to that point, which Tampa has proven to be untrue multiple times. As has Stamkos regression the way the regression narrative implies.
If you slipped from 10th in pts/gm during your prime at 24-28 years old, to 14th at 29-33, that's nowhere near the kind of regression people are claiming. It might even be within the margin for error/variance. Either way he's still playing at a high enough level to help a team win a Cup, that's the main point.
shadow1
Registered User
- Nov 29, 2008
- 16,980
- 6,176
As a Tigers fan, I have more faith in you steering the ship than anyone Harris was going to hire as GM...
Chiarelli
Registered User
- Jan 27, 2019
- 5,146
- 7,216
Still good players but their bodies are breaking down. The 3 seasons prior to last Kuch played 115 regular season games that’s less than 50%.
Point didn’t play mor than 66 games in those same 3 seasons.
Kuch missed a whole season fairly intentionally...
And you're not accounting for the shortened seasons. Point couldn't have played more than 56 games in 20-21 because that's how long the season was. 19-20 was only 70 games for Tampa. He missed a combined 4 games those two seasons. 21-22 is the only season he's missed significant time in the regular season. And if that is breaking down... please don't look at any of the Avs.
All that said, Tampa will continue to regress. They have a group that will keep them pretty good for a while, but they are out of contention realistically.
Foppa2118
Registered User
- Oct 3, 2003
- 53,544
- 33,934
The reason the regression narrative works is because there's an element of truth to it. Players do regress, especially non stars for various reasons. But this isn't the point of the regression narrative.
The point is to support the other narrative that the Avs Cup window will close soon. It's used to support saying the Avs won't be contenders for long, because the players will be too old.
So it's important to point out players that haven't regressed that much in their 30's, and teams that have won with cores of players 29-33 years old.
Also important to note that those who advocated the Cup window closing narrative, agreed with Grubauer that the Avs window would close the year before they won the Cup. Then it was suppose to close with Nate's new contract. It also didn't start because of age, it started because of cap constraints. Now that the Avs have proven they can contend despite those cap restraints, the narrative has shifted to age.
We're past all that now and pretty much everyone agrees the Avs can still win a Cup this year. And the contention window narrative has shifted to closing in a few years. Which is finally closer to the truth, but the regression/contention window narrative is still false, as proven by Tampa Bay almost winning 3 Cups with nearly their entire core 29-33, and Stamkos still playing at a high level at 32/33.
Guys like Kucherov, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Kane, Panarin, Tavares, Wheeler, Marchand, and Pavelski still playing at a high level in their 30's for that matter too. If they can do it, so can elite players like Nate and Mikko. And the Avs can still win with them in their 30's like Tampa did, especially with the Avs younger blueline with Cale and Bo not even in their prime yet.
Chiarelli
Registered User
- Jan 27, 2019
- 5,146
- 7,216
They’ve both sustained pretty significant injuries. Point I’m particular I don’t think will age well with his size and style of playKuch missed a whole season fairly intentionally...
And you're not accounting for the shortened seasons. Point couldn't have played more than 56 games in 20-21 because that's how long the season was. 19-20 was only 70 games for Tampa. He missed a combined 4 games those two seasons. 21-22 is the only season he's missed significant time in the regular season. And if that is breaking down... please don't look at any of the Avs.
All that said, Tampa will continue to regress. They have a group that will keep them pretty good for a while, but they are out of contention realistically.
You could say Landy is intentionally missing a season as well I suppose. A season lost is a season lost.
FTR I don’t think the Avs core will age well at all other than Rants
He may not, but his injury history is being overblown. One quad injury (tear) and a broken collarbone That's significantly better than MacK's injury history... where he's had an ac sprain 4(?) times now.
Foppa2118
Registered User
- Oct 3, 2003
- 53,544
- 33,934
Kucherov is coming off an 82 game season where he had 113 points at 29 years old though. He's still a top player in the league.
Players can have down years. They can also have injury plagued years. But this doesn't always mean every season after will be the same, as evidenced by Kucherov playing 82 games.
He's an example of a guy who can still lead a team to the Cup at 30, not an example of a guy who can't because he's regressed too much.
Whether Tampa wins again is another question, but they've already proven you can with players in their 30's. They can still contend, because all they have to do is make the playoffs, and they have a chance to win, or make the finals, just like those older, playoff seasoned LA and Detroit teams could back in the day.
- Jul 25, 2006
- 35,930
- 27,905
Chiarelli
Registered User
- Jan 27, 2019
- 5,146
- 7,216
Keep that kid away from the golf course
expatriatedtexan
Illegitimati non carborundum
- Aug 17, 2005
- 20,912
- 19,232
My wife told me to buy her a sauna. I put a fan next to a pot of boiling water and told her to make do.
Avs_19
Registered User
- Jun 28, 2007
- 86,283
- 36,372
Gumballhead
Registered User
Chiarelli
Registered User
- Jan 27, 2019
- 5,146
- 7,216
Good on Ovi. I’m sick of everyone’s ideologies being shoved down my throat at sporting events. I’m not specifically talking about pride nights. All the military stuff too for example - I’m here to watch hockey that’s it.
- Status
