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Around the League - 2022-23 Season Edition

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Gary Nylund said:
Obviously injuries factor in (who knows what their model is exactly) but it's not the 62.7% that I'm having trouble with, it's that Boston/Florida is now considered to be a tossup. Do they have injuries as well? I know they haven't looked great the first two games, just didn't think their odds could possibly drop that much because of it.
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Just found this in their calculation explanation.

The data used to predict each game includes each team's performance of a range of statistics in the season up until the date of the given game. Older games are given less weighting for the statistic. The weighting each game is given is linear. For example, when predicting the result of a team's 41st game of the season, the team's 40th game is given twice the weight as a team's 20th game. Several game weighting techniques were tested as part of building the model, from weighting each game equally to weighting recent games exponentially more​


So I'm assuming the stats thru 2 games were favourable towards Florida and their weighting system is heavily factoring that in?
 
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Gary Nylund said:
Obviously injuries factor in (who knows what their model is exactly) but it's not the 62.7% that I'm having trouble with, it's that Boston/Florida is now considered to be a tossup. Do they have injuries as well? I know they haven't looked great the first two games, just didn't think their odds could possibly drop that much because of it.
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I imagine a lot of it has to do as well based on the last game's result.
 
weems said:
Just found this in their calculation explanation.

The data used to predict each game includes each team's performance of a range of statistics in the season up until the date of the given game. Older games are given less weighting for the statistic. The weighting each game is given is linear. For example, when predicting the result of a team's 41st game of the season, the team's 40th game is given twice the weight as a team's 20th game. Several game weighting techniques were tested as part of building the model, from weighting each game equally to weighting recent games exponentially more​


So I'm assuming the stats thru 2 games were favourable towards Florida and their weighting system is heavily factoring that in?
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That's interesting, thanks! Building these models is interesting work, beats the hell out of the data analysis stuff I work on (or I should say, what I'm supposed to be working on right now instead of posting here). :laugh::laugh:
 
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weems said:
Could it have something to do with the possible injuries to Tampa defence? How do they calculate injuries into the projection?
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I expect their weighing 5on5 play pretty heavily too and wed have a biy advantage there after 2 games from an advancrd stat standpoint. After a quick look were closer to 60% xGf and HDCF% in the main situations (all, 5on5) and FLA is closer to 50/50.

@Gary Nylund - thatd be my guess
 
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Gallagbi said:
I expect their weighing 5on5 play pretty heavily too and wed have a biy advantage there after 2 games from an advancrd stat standpoint. After a quick look were closer to 60% xGf and HDCF% in the main situations (all, 5on5) and FLA is closer to 50/50.

@Gary Nylund - thatd be my guess
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Whatever the case may be, the Bruins going down would be sweet! And even if they get past FLA, hopefully it goes 7 games and they're a bit worn down as taking them down ourselves would be 100 times sweeter. I'll be watching tonight with great interest!
 
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willmma said:
So does Nosek get a suspension foe the elbow to Staals head?
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BertCorbeau said:
Doesn’t look like it.
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Pretty crazy to me. Not even a fine. Just nothing.

NHL media kinda sucks for teams outside of Toronto. Micro analyze this market, zero talks about that stuff for other teams. I assume since there were no injury on the play, they just shrug it off and move on.
 
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kb said:
I'd say this take is embarrassing, but looking at the full posting history one realizes that this take this doesn't make the top 980.
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Wasn't there serious issues with Bertuzzi and his vax status being able to work in Canada and re-enter the US?

He was never coming here
 
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Gary Nylund said:
That's interesting, thanks! Building these models is interesting work, beats the hell out of the data analysis stuff I work on (or I should say, what I'm supposed to be working on right now instead of posting here). :laugh::laugh:
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You are just mailing it in Friday, like the rest of Leafsnation. My colleague just texted me and said my broker asked her if I am coming in today and my colleague said Leafs won last night and my boss just said, oh, I will email him around noon. Lol
 
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willmma said:
So does Nosek get a suspension foe the elbow to Staals head?
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Probably not, not even a fine. It’s just B.S and so obvious how the league operates. The ref was looking right at both of them as it happened and nothing…it was clear as day Nosek elbowed him. It’s not only a missed penalty but that’s a head shot. But of course the league will ignore it

kb said:
I'd say this take is embarrassing, but looking at the full posting history one realizes that this take this doesn't make the top 980.
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I’d rather have Lafferty and Acciari. Not only better depth but wtf has Bertuzzi done in his career that’s so great?
 
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stats1 said:
I’d rather have Lafferty and Acciari. Not only better depth but wtf has Bertuzzi done in his career that’s so great?
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Yup. Especially with what looks like the emergence of Knies....who doesn't look out of place one bit.
 
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Menzinger said:
The Leafs were likely lucky the Gophers went on a deep playoff run before signing his ELC - He's been dialed in for a few weeks now with that playoffs mindset which likely helped make his transition so smooth
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That’s a solid point. Make sense.
 
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Gallagbi said:
I expect their weighing 5on5 play pretty heavily too and wed have a biy advantage there after 2 games from an advancrd stat standpoint. After a quick look were closer to 60% xGf and HDCF% in the main situations (all, 5on5) and FLA is closer to 50/50.

@Gary Nylund - thatd be my guess
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I just had a peek at the bookies lines for the Boston game, Boston is -167 which means they should still be substantial favorites to win the series. Since the bookies back their lines with real money, I feel comfortable saying that they're more in tune with reality and the moneypuck stat model is way out to lunch on this one. And that in turn makes me think that everything on the moneypuck should be taken with a grain of salt, maybe two grains of salt.
 
Gary Nylund said:
I just had a peek at the bookies lines for the Boston game, Boston is -167 which means they should still be substantial favorites to win the series. Since the bookies back their lines with real money, I feel comfortable saying that they're more in tune with reality and the moneypuck stat model is way out to lunch on this one. And that in turn makes me think that everything on the moneypuck should be taken with a grain of salt, maybe two grains of salt.
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Youd be nuts to bet against Boston IMO, but they havent looked incredible. Theres another gear (or two) for them
 
Gallagbi said:
Youd be nuts to bet against Boston IMO, but they havent looked incredible. Theres another gear (or two) for them
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I'd bet against them depending on the odds but sure, common sense says they're still substantial favorites for the series, the bookies agree and moneypuck has some work to do on their model, make that lots of work.
 
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