Around the League - 2022-23 Season Edition

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Scores have been pretty crazy to start the playoffs. A lot of 5-7 goal outbursts. 8-10 total goals per game
 
Can someone explain to me why moneypuck has the Leafs at 62.7% to get past round 1 while Boston is only at 49.9%?
 
Can someone explain to me why moneypuck has the Leafs at 62.7% to get past round 1 while Boston is only at 49.9%?

Could it have something to do with the possible injuries to Tampa defence? How do they calculate injuries into the projection?
 
Could it have something to do with the possible injuries to Tampa defence? How do they calculate injuries into the projection?
Obviously injuries factor in (who knows what their model is exactly) but it's not the 62.7% that I'm having trouble with, it's that Boston/Florida is now considered to be a tossup. Do they have injuries as well? I know they haven't looked great the first two games, just didn't think their odds could possibly drop that much because of it.
 
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