Around the League 2019-20

[KINGS17]

Toffoli and Pearson were still young after the Cup wins with lots of promise, it wasn't until a couple of seasons later where they started to lose their drive to play hard. I know Sutter got on their case quite a bit and would cut their ice time down when the effort wasn't there. The right time to move them was probably two years ago, but unfortunately they played so poorly the following year that Pearson devalued himself and nobody would give anything worth a damn for Toffoli.

I think the missed opportunities were hanging onto guys like Stoll and Richards way after their expiration dates had passed, and having nothing in the pipeline to come in and overtake some of those spots they were looking to fill. There was no replacement for Justin Williams, they had many various centers to try to fill the Richards/Stoll/Fraser/Richardson spots and none of them stuck, they had nobody come up to fill any of the blueline vacancies left from the departures of Mitchell, Voynov, Regehr and eventually Greene. Thus, the organization was just completely deplete of any depth.

No team is going to sustain any type of success with that strategy, but at least these mishaps came after a successful run.

I think with Toffoli (stats below) the amount of inconsistency from season to season was very severe, so the Kings didn't know what they had in him. On the other hand the Kings were watching him in practice every day. They should have been able to tell if the effort was there to improve. Now the dropoff to what he is now with 13 goals last season, and on pace for maybe 15 this season has really lowered his value. The time to figure out what to do with him should have happened no later than the summer after 2017-18. His value might have been at its peak then, and the Kings were going nowhere fast when it came to contending.

That would have taken an honest evaluation of the team though.

2013-14	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	62	12	17	29	10	21	26	7	7	14	10
2014-15	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	76	23	26	49	37	25	--	--	--	--	--
2015-16	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	82	31	27	58	20	35	5	0	1	1	2
2016-17	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	63	16	18	34	22	6	--	--	--	--	--
2017-18	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	82	24	23	47	16	9	4	0	0	0	0
2018-19	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	82	13	21	34	23	-16	--	--	--	--	--
2019-20	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	19	4	5	9	6	-4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[kings11]

I think with Toffoli (stats below) the amount of inconsistency from season to season was very severe, so the Kings didn't know what they had in him. On the other hand the Kings were watching him in practice every day. They should have been able to tell if the effort was there to improve. Now the dropoff to what he is now with 13 goals last season, and on pace for maybe 15 this season has really lowered his value. The time to figure out what to do with him should have happened no later than the summer after 2017-18. His value might have been at its peak then, and the Kings were going nowhere fast when it came to contending.

That would have taken an honest evaluation of the team though.

2013-14	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	62	12	17	29	10	21	26	7	7	14	10
2014-15	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	76	23	26	49	37	25	--	--	--	--	--
2015-16	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	82	31	27	58	20	35	5	0	1	1	2
2016-17	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	63	16	18	34	22	6	--	--	--	--	--
2017-18	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	82	24	23	47	16	9	4	0	0	0	0
2018-19	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	82	13	21	34	23	-16	--	--	--	--	--
2019-20	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	19	4	5	9	6	-4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The somewhat good news is that playing with Amadio and Carter, he'll get his prime scoring chances.. Here's hoping he capitalizes and nets us a high pick and maybe more..

 

[KingsHockey24]

 

[Stimpythecat]

Jordan Nolan...

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Good on Nolan, that's a chickenshit move by a goalie who knows everyone will come to his aid.

 

[deaderhead28]

 

[crassbonanza]

I think we have been watching a completely different team.

Disagree that that is the "model" they went for.....when everyone is healthy, they have a deadly 3rd line with Kerfoot centering it

Kerfoot is decent and has the ability to play up and down the lineup, but I wouldn't say he is deadly. He has 6 even strenght points this year, which is about the same scoring rate as Lizotte and Kempe.

they are light on defense

Not sure where you are getting this one from. Among playoff teams they had the 2nd worst GA last year and the offseason moves made them worse defensively.

they aren't relying on 5-6 players to do all the lifting, they have a solid solid 9, and a bottom 3 that knows the role

They really don't have that solid of a top 9. They have Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, KK and AJ. The last 3 are very prone to scoring droughts, while the top 3 all have health concerns. As for a bottom 3 that knows their role, not sure that Spezza/Petan are considered classic 4th line role players.

The honest assessment is that the Leafs are a team built heavily on offense, foregoing toughness, defense or any other atribute. Dubas has talked about this and Marek loves to discuss it on sportsnet. They firmly believe that "skill" can overcome any other deficiency. It appears that they were wrong, in this calendar year the Leafs are 20th in the league with 68 points in 65 games. Just behind the Edmonton Oilers. You can say it is coaching, but remember Dubas inherited a team that had just set a franchise record with 105 points and Babcock was coaching that team. Ever since he began the overhaul to fit his vision the team has gone to shit. Meanwhile, Lou took over an Islanders team who was coming off of an 80 points season and his team has the 5th most points in 2019 with 86 in 62 games.

 

[Brodeur]

View attachment 279269

Schneider seems like he just has the yips now. The hip surgeries hampered his play for sure, but he has zero confidence in net and the coaching staff hasn't been playing him; Blackwood started both ends of a back-to-back this weekend.

At this point, they're probably gonna let Schneider try to figure things out in the minors and if things don't get better then possibly look at a buyout in the offseason. The awkward thing is that Jack Hughes is/was living in Schneider's house.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

I think we have been watching a completely different team.



Kerfoot is decent and has the ability to play up and down the lineup, but I wouldn't say he is deadly. He has 6 even strenght points this year, which is about the same scoring rate as Lizotte and Kempe.



Not sure where you are getting this one from. Among playoff teams they had the 2nd worst GA last year and the offseason moves made them worse defensively.



They really don't have that solid of a top 9. They have Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, KK and AJ. The last 3 are very prone to scoring droughts, while the top 3 all have health concerns. As for a bottom 3 that knows their role, not sure that Spezza/Petan are considered classic 4th line role players.

The honest assessment is that the Leafs are a team built heavily on offense, foregoing toughness, defense or any other atribute. Dubas has talked about this and Marek loves to discuss it on sportsnet. They firmly believe that "skill" can overcome any other deficiency. It appears that they were wrong, in this calendar year the Leafs are 20th in the league with 68 points in 65 games. Just behind the Edmonton Oilers. You can say it is coaching, but remember Dubas inherited a team that had just set a franchise record with 105 points and Babcock was coaching that team. Ever since he began the overhaul to fit his vision the team has gone to ****. Meanwhile, Lou took over an Islanders team who was coming off of an 80 points season and his team has the 5th most points in 2019 with 86 in 62 games.

I guess it depends on your expectations,

I see Kerfoot, Mikheyev, and Hyman/Moore/Kapanen/Johnson as one of the better 3rd lines in the league, they all can skate, move the puck etc, not sure where you get Petan from he's been in the minors until injuries hit, 4th line of Gauthier/Shore/and Timashov, again, pretty solid 4th line.

I said they were light on defense, they are, they invested in Nylander, instead of a defenseman, that was a mistake, but they still have Reilly, Muzzin, Dermott, Barrie, Ceci, and Holl, light, but solid, Reilly, Dermott and Muzzin are solid defensively, while having offensive upside, Barrie is a dumpster fire on defense, but they knew that coming in.

As I said, when they are healthy, they have a strong forward core....

 

[KINGS17]

Jordan Nolan...

He's our only hope...

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

In similar fashion, SJ has the pain of having two of the highest-event d-men in the league on their side as well. I feel like Dubas and those folks are the ones that have leaned FAR too heavily on the bullshit that guys like Dom Luaoifdoiaeporhaopivhjopasd spit off about advanced stats and the best defense is a good offense. They always mock the two-way guys like Bergeron, Kopitar, Doughty, etc. but the guys they pump religiously can't win shit.

I don't understand what's so hard to understand about even the BEST 'possession' players are only controlling 60% of the shot shares (which is significant, no doubt) so you need to know what your end looks like 40% of the time and those guys just don't get it.

 

[crassbonanza]

I see Kerfoot, Mikheyev, and Hyman/Moore/Kapanen/Johnson as one of the better 3rd lines in the league, they all can skate, move the puck etc, not sure where you get Petan from he's been in the minors until injuries hit, 4th line of Gauthier/Shore/and Timashov, again, pretty solid 4th line.

The third line is Kerfoot, Mikheyev, and Moore/Hyman. AJ and KK are predominately top 6 forwards at this point and have spent this season up there. Just looking at that line, Kerfoot has 6 ES points, Moore has 5 points. I'll agree that Mikheyev has looked awesome, but that is only one player. They are a fairly average 3rd line.

That 4th line is actually pretty f***ing rough. Analytics may not be everything, but they have been fairly atrocious possession wise. None of them provide any sort of grit, toughness, or defense. So, not sure why you think they are pretty solid.

I said they were light on defense, they are, they invested in Nylander, instead of a defenseman, that was a mistake, but they still have Reilly, Muzzin, Dermott, Barrie, Ceci, and Holl, light, but solid, Reilly, Dermott and Muzzin are solid defensively, while having offensive upside, Barrie is a dumpster fire on defense, but they knew that coming in.

Haha, this one is my bad, I thought you said "lights out" not light.

Anyways, you are saying solid again and I am not sure what that means. It feels like you saying they are "solid" is you saying that you have heard of those names so they must be decent. They are pretty far from solid, they gave up the same number of even strength goals as the atrocious Kings team from last season did. I don't think you will find anyone arguing that the Kings D was solid last season. This season they have given up 4 more even strength goals than the Kings. They have a bad D core.

The team is poorly constructed as many people have been saying it for quite a while and the results are backing that up.

 

[Statto]

But, but... pundits and fans would have you believe Kings hockey was mainly based on luck and Jonathan Quick

Quick was a system goalie

 

[tny760]

Schneider seems like he just has the yips now. The hip surgeries hampered his play for sure, but he has zero confidence in net and the coaching staff hasn't been playing him; Blackwood started both ends of a back-to-back this weekend.

At this point, they're probably gonna let Schneider try to figure things out in the minors and if things don't get better then possibly look at a buyout in the offseason. The awkward thing is that Jack Hughes is/was living in Schneider's house.

feel kinda bad for schneider, i thought he was poised to be one of the best after 2012 then the injuries now the mental stuff

guess you can only take so many years of being behind a trash team when you're carrying the load

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

The third line is Kerfoot, Mikheyev, and Moore/Hyman. AJ and KK are predominately top 6 forwards at this point and have spent this season up there. Just looking at that line, Kerfoot has 6 ES points, Moore has 5 points. I'll agree that Mikheyev has looked awesome, but that is only one player. They are a fairly average 3rd line.

That 4th line is actually pretty ****ing rough. Analytics may not be everything, but they have been fairly atrocious possession wise. None of them provide any sort of grit, toughness, or defense. So, not sure why you think they are pretty solid.



Haha, this one is my bad, I thought you said "lights out" not light.

Anyways, you are saying solid again and I am not sure what that means. It feels like you saying they are "solid" is you saying that you have heard of those names so they must be decent. They are pretty far from solid, they gave up the same number of even strength goals as the atrocious Kings team from last season did. I don't think you will find anyone arguing that the Kings D was solid last season. This season they have given up 4 more even strength goals than the Kings. They have a bad D core.

The team is poorly constructed as many people have been saying it for quite a while and the results are backing that up.

Again, balance your expectations, Kerfoot has 6 ES points in 20 games, you project that out, that's a 3rd line center with 30-40 ES points, plus what, another 10 on the PP, plus he can PK, so a 3rd line center good for 40-50 pts....I'm pretty ok with that.

AJ is only top six because Hyman was out, he's been solid, but Hyman coming back, with everyone healthy, I don't know if he sees that.

4th line has been absolutely fine, Gauthier, Timashayov, and Shore, 6-8 minutes a game, as a line, +/- of 1, not a perfect stat of course, but they aren't getting scored on in ES, that's kinda what they are there for...

As far as the D, the defensemen themselves are solid, the issue is forward responsiblity, and ultimately coaching, you bring up GA like it's not a team stat, the forwards play a major part in that as we all know...

 

[crassbonanza]

Again, balance your expectations, Kerfoot has 6 ES points in 20 games, you project that out, that's a 3rd line center with 30-40 ES points, plus what, another 10 on the PP, plus he can PK, so a 3rd line center good for 40-50 pts....I'm pretty ok with that.

My main issue was you calling that 3rd line deadly and the top 9 very solid. I wasn't mentioning the powerplay, because we were talking about the 3rd line. Would you say that a line centered by Kempe/Lizotte is deadly? Because they have about the same even strength pace.

4th line has been absolutely fine, Gauthier, Timashayov, and Shore, 6-8 minutes a game, as a line, +/- of 1, not a perfect stat of course, but they aren't getting scored on in ES, that's kinda what they are there for...

xGF: 33.93, 34.60, 40.03

HDCF: 26.53, 23.40, 37.88.

Those are pretty tough numbers, even though they draw so many defensive zone draws. Again, they seem to be average to less than average.

As far as the D, the defensemen themselves are solid, the issue is forward responsiblity, and ultimately coaching, you bring up GA like it's not a team stat, the forwards play a major part in that as we all know...

Are they really solid though? Muzzin is the only one known to be decent in his own zone and even he is prone to significant errors. Reilly, Ceci, and Barrie are all notorious for being very poor defensively. I bring up GA because it is a fairly tangible stat to measure defensive play, we can bring up CA, SCA/HDCA if you want, but the Leafs are also bad by those.

I fully agree that some of the issue is forward responsibility, which is a big part of why I believe the Leafs are poorly constructed. They followed the analytics model of offense only and we are seeing the repercussions.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

My main issue was you calling that 3rd line deadly and the top 9 very solid. I wasn't mentioning the powerplay, because we were talking about the 3rd line. Would you say that a line centered by Kempe/Lizotte is deadly? Because they have about the same even strength pace.




xGF: 33.93, 34.60, 40.03

HDCF: 26.53, 23.40, 37.88.

Those are pretty tough numbers, even though they draw so many defensive zone draws. Again, they seem to be average to less than average.



Are they really solid though? Muzzin is the only one known to be decent in his own zone and even he is prone to significant errors. Reilly, Ceci, and Barrie are all notorious for being very poor defensively. I bring up GA because it is a fairly tangible stat to measure defensive play, we can bring up CA, SCA/HDCA if you want, but the Leafs are also bad by those.

I fully agree that some of the issue is forward responsibility, which is a big part of why I believe the Leafs are poorly constructed. They followed the analytics model of offense only and we are seeing the repercussions.

Deadly for a 3rd line, let's put it that way lol, Not sure why you are against your 3rd line players averaging 40-50pts in a season, guess how many pts STL 3rd players got last year?

The 4th line, you are bringing up offensive numbers, why? That's not their job...

As far as the defense, Dermott is solid as is Reilly in the Dzone, Reilly is one of the better 2 way Ds in the game, Dermott is a great #3, he would be #2 on LA no questions asked...

Is the team poorly constructed? Yea, in a cap way, not in a talent way....they have hard decisions to make.

 

[crassbonanza]

Deadly for a 3rd line, let's put it that way lol, Not sure why you are against your 3rd line players averaging 40-50pts in a season, guess how many pts STL 3rd players got last year?

Again, we are talking about the 3rd line, not the power play. Kerfoot is on pace for 24 even strength points. Which is basically his even strength scoring rate the past few years. Last season Subdqvist scored 28, Thomas scored 26, Bozak had 30. So, Kerfoot doesn't appear to be all that deadly for a 3rd line center.

The 4th line, you are bringing up offensive numbers, why? That's not their job...

Those are the percentage of total. Which means they are giving up a significantly higher rate of HDCF and their xGF % is dangerously low because of it. I apologize that it wasn't clear, but those numbers take into account both offense and defense.

As far as the defense, Dermott is solid as is Reilly in the Dzone, Reilly is one of the better 2 way Ds in the game, Dermott is a great #3, he would be #2 on LA no questions asked...

Is the team poorly constructed? Yea, in a cap way, not in a talent way....they have hard decisions to make.

You keep saying solid and I for the life of me don't know what you mean by that. It is an odd metric to use and I don't know how to argue it. Is Seabrook solid? Is Subban solid? Is Karlsson solid? There's not really much of a baseline for it because it is all based on your opinion.

I don't understand how they can be built poorly in a cap way, but not in a talent way. They seem to be very intertwined, the reason the cap affects you is that it provides less talent in other areas of need. They are a poorly constructed team right now, the standings show that, the eye test shows that and the analytics show that to be true. Since Dubas took over and overhauled the roster they have gone from a 105 point team, to a 100 point team, to a team on pace for 80 points.

 

[KingsHockey24]

Good on Nolan, that's a chicken**** move by a goalie who knows everyone will come to his aid.

Like when Binnington was trying to act tough with Clifford.

 

[KingsHockey24]

He's our only hope...

Frolov is still in good shape; led the Asia League in goals just a season ago as well. He's probably more effective than guys like Toffoli and Kempe.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Again, we are talking about the 3rd line, not the power play. Kerfoot is on pace for 24 even strength points. Which is basically his even strength scoring rate the past few years. Last season Subdqvist scored 28, Thomas scored 26, Bozak had 30. So, Kerfoot doesn't appear to be all that deadly for a 3rd line center.



Those are the percentage of total. Which means they are giving up a significantly higher rate of HDCF and their xGF % is dangerously low because of it. I apologize that it wasn't clear, but those numbers take into account both offense and defense.



You keep saying solid and I for the life of me don't know what you mean by that. It is an odd metric to use and I don't know how to argue it. Is Seabrook solid? Is Subban solid? Is Karlsson solid? There's not really much of a baseline for it because it is all based on your opinion.

I don't understand how they can be built poorly in a cap way, but not in a talent way. They seem to be very intertwined, the reason the cap affects you is that it provides less talent in other areas of need. They are a poorly constructed team right now, the standings show that, the eye test shows that and the analytics show that to be true. Since Dubas took over and overhauled the roster they have gone from a 105 point team, to a 100 point team, to a team on pace for 80 points.

Point is, when your 3rd line C, is inline to score what the previous Cup winner's 3rd line players are, that's not a defect.....you don't want to call them deadly, that's fine, Kerfoot has played exceptional and getting AJ or KK on his wing is only going to make it better.

Their xGF is supposed to be low, they play 6-8 minutes a night...that's like acting surprised that Clifford is on a 6 goal pace for the year....

It's hard to give you a baseline when it's extremely hard to measure defense with stats,

You say they are poorly constructed, I say they aren't being coached correctly, that and injuries hurt them...the only mistake they made imo, was paying for Nylander, especially with Marner coming up, etc, now they will have some tough decisions...

 

[crassbonanza]

Point is, when your 3rd line C, is inline to score what the previous Cup winner's 3rd line players are, that's not a defect.....you don't want to call them deadly, that's fine, Kerfoot has played exceptional and getting AJ or KK on his wing is only going to make it better.

The Blues were built as a defensive oriented team though. Kerfoot is decent, but this is a very top heavy team, doesn't matter how you slice it.

Their xGF is supposed to be low, they play 6-8 minutes a night...that's like acting surprised that Clifford is on a 6 goal pace for the year....

xGF% is the ratio of expected goals for compared to their expected goals against. They bleed high danger chances, even in their limited ice time.

It's hard to give you a baseline when it's extremely hard to measure defense with stats,

Well, the general consensus was that they are poor defensively. None of those players on the current roster are known to be decent in their own zone. They are mostly built with puckmovers and Ceci, who is just bad.

You say they are poorly constructed, I say they aren't being coached correctly, that and injuries hurt them...the only mistake they made imo, was paying for Nylander, especially with Marner coming up, etc, now they will have some tough decisions...

In '17/'18 the Leafs set a franchise record with 105 points with Babcock as coach, now they are on pace for 80 points. You think it is more likely to be because Babcock sucks at coaching rather than the massive roster overhaul that has happened since '17/'18? There have been a litany of mistakes made, signing Tavares when you are already the second highest scoring team in the league was a start. Losing every RFA battle is another. Backup goalie. Defense construction. Trading Kadri for Barrie.

I'm sure Babcock will be fired and there will be a momentary bump in play like usually happens, but this is a horribly constructed team. Just look at Lou in NY and you can see how building a roster properly can work.

 

[Bandit]

Toronto sucks, end of story.

 

[Stimpythecat]

Watching leaf fans melting down amuses me. If you think this was bad, anyone want to tell him that the Muzzin trade was a 1st round pick and not a 2nd?

 

[KINGS17]

Watching leaf fans melting down amuses me. If you think this was bad, anyone want to tell him that the Muzzin trade was a 1st round pick and not a 2nd?

Not magic beans at all, Bjornfot!!