Around the League 2018-2019 Part 3

[Ziggy Stardust]

So you're comparing an international tournament with relatively low participation to running an NHL team?

No, I’m using an example of how he operated when he had a clean slate to put together a team. He stated explicitly that he wanted to put together a team similar to that of the 1996 US World Cup team that hung with Canada physically. Except it blew up in his face when he assembled a team that couldn’t keep up with the competition. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

 

[kingsholygrail]

No, I’m using an example of how he operated when he had a clean slate to put together a team. He stated explicitly that he wanted to put together a team similar to that of the 1996 US World Cup team that hung with Canada physically. Except it blew up in his face when he assembled a team that couldn’t keep up with the competition. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

It doesn't sound familiar at all. The Kings won two Cups. Or are you the "Dave Taylor won two Cups and Dave Lombardi just happened to be GM" crowd?

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

It doesn't sound familiar at all. The Kings won two Cups. Or are you the "Dave Taylor won two Cups and Dave Lombardi just happened to be GM" crowd?

Did you happen to stop watching Kings hockey after June 13, 2014?

 

[kingsholygrail]

Did you happen to stop watching Kings hockey after June 13, 2014?

Nope. Name me a GM that was able to keep it up for a long period of time and win it all. The delusional ones were anyone that thought that level of success could be sustained. Since 2014, the Kings have had two non-competitive seasons. They hit 95 in 2014-15, same point total they had in 2011-12, but did not qualify. They had 102 in 2015-16, the most since 1990-91 and got beat in the first round. They had 98(8th most successful season in franchise history) in 2017-18 and got beat by the Golden Knights who went to the SCF.

I don't think you've been watching since 2014.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Nope. Name me a GM that was able to keep it up for a long period of time and win it all. The delusional ones were anyone that thought that level of success could be sustained. Since 2014, the Kings have had two non-competitive seasons. They hit 95 in 2014-15, same point total they had in 2011-12, but did not qualify. They had 102 in 2015-16, the most since 1990-91 and got beat in the first round. They had 98(8th most successful season in franchise history) in 2017-18 and got beat by the Golden Knights who went to the SCF.

I don't think you've been watching since 2014.

Ever heard of the Pittsburgh Penguins? Do you recall the last time they missed the playoffs?

Here are some enlightening numbers. The Kings have appeared in the fourth least amount of playoff games since 2014. Only nine playoff games played in the last five years. The only teams to appear in less post season games are the Vancouver Canucks, Florida Panthers, and New Jersey Devils.

Want to guess which team has the least amount of playoff wins in the past five years and the worst playoff winning percentage? Look no further than your most excellent Kings, who boast a .111 winning percentage with one playoff win in the past five years.

You can look at the numbers yourself.
Team Game Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

The only delusional ones here are those who think the Kings are still competitive the last few years. Delusions of grandeur from those still living in the past.

 

[lumbergh]

Did you happen to stop watching Kings hockey after June 13, 2014?

Can I go back in time and do exactly that?

 

[tny760]

Can I go back in time and do exactly that?

here, come stand under this piano

 

[KINGS17]

By the numbers: A look at the 10 worst contracts in hockey

2. Drew Doughty, LAK
Contract: $11M x eight years
Surplus Value: -$55.7M
Positive Value Probability: 6.1%

I am not sure how "surplus value" and "positive value probability" are calculated. You would have to go to other links within the article to figure it out. Part of it is based on "GSVA", whatever that is, but I think the author is trying to be controversial by having Doughty on this list at #2.

Kopitar does not appear on the list, which I find laughable if Doughty has the second worst contract in the NHL. Also, where is Toews on this list? One good season bails him out and off the list? I don't think so.

 

[YP44]

By the numbers: A look at the 10 worst contracts in hockey

2. Drew Doughty, LAK
Contract: $11M x eight years
Surplus Value: -$55.7M
Positive Value Probability: 6.1%

I am not sure how "surplus value" and "positive value probability" are calculated. You would have to go to other links within the article to figure it out. Part of it is based on "GSVA", whatever that is, but I think the author is trying to be controversial by having Doughty on this list at #2.

Kopitar does not appear on the list, which I find laughable if Doughty has the second worst contract in the NHL. Also, where is Toews on this list? One good season bails him out and off the list? I don't think so.

the biggest reason is based on last year's poor advance stats that Doughty put up. It's not like the Author picked him #2, he ran his equation and Drew's contract turned out to be the 2nd worse.

He is going to release how every player ranks on each team in the coming weeks.

 

[KINGS17]

the biggest reason is based on last year's poor advance stats that Doughty put up. It's not like the Author picked him #2, he ran his equation and Drew's contract turned out to be the 2nd worse.

He is going to release how every player ranks on each team in the coming weeks.

I understood that it was based on some equation. I guess my question would be why is that particular equation the best way to assess the worst contracts in the NHL. If it is based purely on a single season's performance it is extremely flawed.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Ever heard of the Pittsburgh Penguins? Do you recall the last time they missed the playoffs?

Here are some enlightening numbers. The Kings have appeared in the fourth least amount of playoff games since 2014. Only nine playoff games played in the last five years. The only teams to appear in less post season games are the Vancouver Canucks, Florida Panthers, and New Jersey Devils.

Want to guess which team has the least amount of playoff wins in the past five years and the worst playoff winning percentage? Look no further than your most excellent Kings, who boast a .111 winning percentage with one playoff win in the past five years.

You can look at the numbers yourself.
Team Game Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

The only delusional ones here are those who think the Kings are still competitive the last few years. Delusions of grandeur from those still living in the past.

If you're worried about playoff wins, I'm not sure why you were ever a Kings fan. Name me a GM with more playoff wins for the Kings.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

If you're worried about playoff wins, I'm not sure why you were ever a Kings fan. Name me a GM with more playoff wins for the Kings.

Brian Burke won a lot of playoff games for the Ducks. Do you see their fans clamoring to bring him back? Hell, they brought back their Cup winning coach as well. Worked wonders for them!

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

I understood that it was based on some equation. I guess my question would be why is that particular equation the best way to assess the worst contracts in the NHL. If it is based purely on a single season's performance it is extremely flawed.

It's not based on solely on one season in a black and white sense; it's based (beyond the basic analytics included in the equation that you mentioned) on historical aging curves. So Doughty having a bad season at the age he did affects how his aging curve looks. As the author noted, his aging curve looked good going into this season, but then he had the absolute abomination of the season that he did (analytically, at least, though the eyeball test wasn't favorable to him, despite Doughty's own protestations otherwise).

This explains how he calculates GSVA: Improving our NHL projection model ahead of the 2019-20...

 

[KINGS17]

It's not based on solely on one season in a black and white sense; it's based (beyond the basic analytics included in the equation that you mentioned) on historical aging curves. So Doughty having a bad season at the age he did affects how his aging curve looks. As the author noted, his aging curve looked good going into this season, but then he had the absolute abomination of the season that he did (analytically, at least, though the eyeball test wasn't favorable to him, despite Doughty's own protestations otherwise).

This explains how he calculates GSVA: Improving our NHL projection model ahead of the 2019-20...

Everyone knows (including Doughty) that he was dog **** last season. He may very well start to decline at an age earlier than was expected just a year ago.

However, I don't see anything factored in this formula (which would be impossible to do) for a piss poor attitude which is what most of the vets had last season from the get go. I don't think the formula is a valid way to assess the worst contracts.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Brian Burke won a lot of playoff games for the Ducks. Do you see their fans clamoring to bring him back? Hell, they brought back their Cup winning coach as well. Worked wonders for them!

No one's asking to re-sign DL. I just wanted to know why you carry such a personal vendetta against him that any possible news related to him you take swipes. And if you think he's such an awful GM, then why wouldn't you want him in Seattle?

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Everyone knows (including Doughty) that he was dog **** last season. He may very well start to decline at an age earlier than was expected just a year ago.

However, I don't see anything factored in this formula (which would be impossible to do) for a piss poor attitude which is what most of the vets had last season from the get go. I don't think the formula is a valid way to assess the worst contracts.

Attitude is subjective so it can’t be measured quantitatively, but attitude could affect how one plays on the ice which would affect a player’s analytical output. It may not be able to be measured directly, but I think it’s fair to say that lack of real give-a-shit from guys like Doughty, Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli, etc. affected their analytical measurements.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

If Doughty really is at the beginning of a regression, this franchise is in trouble for a long, long time.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

By the numbers: A look at the 10 worst contracts in hockey

2. Drew Doughty, LAK
Contract: $11M x eight years
Surplus Value: -$55.7M
Positive Value Probability: 6.1%

I am not sure how "surplus value" and "positive value probability" are calculated. You would have to go to other links within the article to figure it out. Part of it is based on "GSVA", whatever that is, but I think the author is trying to be controversial by having Doughty on this list at #2.

Kopitar does not appear on the list, which I find laughable if Doughty has the second worst contract in the NHL. Also, where is Toews on this list? One good season bails him out and off the list? I don't think so.

Spoiler alert, it's written by one of the biggest anti-Doughty Karlsson fanboys on the internet.

Putting him at #2 was his effort to look unbiased, just like his calling Doughty "a top five d-man" was a backhanded compliment.

Basically if you score like a madman all your other problems are overlooked. Notice Vlasic is on there as well.

Edit: notice his swaps to expected goals for and new weighting for stuff that paints his guys in a favorable light.

XGF and XGA are the biggest bullshit stats in hockey right now.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Ever heard of the Pittsburgh Penguins? Do you recall the last time they missed the playoffs?

Here are some enlightening numbers. The Kings have appeared in the fourth least amount of playoff games since 2014. Only nine playoff games played in the last five years. The only teams to appear in less post season games are the Vancouver Canucks, Florida Panthers, and New Jersey Devils.

Want to guess which team has the least amount of playoff wins in the past five years and the worst playoff winning percentage? Look no further than your most excellent Kings, who boast a .111 winning percentage with one playoff win in the past five years.

You can look at the numbers yourself.
Team Game Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

The only delusional ones here are those who think the Kings are still competitive the last few years. Delusions of grandeur from those still living in the past.

You're strawmanning really hard here.

You're being rightfully called out for BS continued potshots at DL. At least address the comment instead of veering off to find target dummies as a distraction.

 

[KINGS17]

Ever heard of the Pittsburgh Penguins? Do you recall the last time they missed the playoffs?

Here are some enlightening numbers. The Kings have appeared in the fourth least amount of playoff games since 2014. Only nine playoff games played in the last five years. The only teams to appear in less post season games are the Vancouver Canucks, Florida Panthers, and New Jersey Devils.

Want to guess which team has the least amount of playoff wins in the past five years and the worst playoff winning percentage? Look no further than your most excellent Kings, who boast a .111 winning percentage with one playoff win in the past five years.

You can look at the numbers yourself.
Team Game Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

The only delusional ones here are those who think the Kings are still competitive the last few years. Delusions of grandeur from those still living in the past.

I don't think Dean Lombardi had any delusions at all about where this organization was at the end of his tenure, and I think he was going to start doing something about it as was made evident about his comment about "treating players more like commodities".

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

You're strawmanning really hard here.

You're being rightfully called out for BS continued potshots at DL. At least address the comment instead of veering off to find target dummies as a distraction.

What exactly am I strawmanning? Five years of evidence? And what comment did I not address? You guys continue to bury your heads in the stand when the fact is brought up that the Kings have the lowest playoff winning percentage since 2015. Out of 31 teams, no team has had less playoff success in half a decade.

Is half a decade of statistics considered a small sample size to you?

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I don't think Dean Lombardi had any delusions at all about where this organization was at the end of his tenure, and I think he was going to start doing something about it as was made evident about his comment about "treating players more like commodities".

What was his last move? Getting a handful of games for Ben Bishop for someone who’s now a regular defenseman on Tampa Bay’s blueline. He didn’t exactly move many commodities, aside from Dwight King.

 

[DoktorJeep]

I’m loyal to DL, but his post cup roster decisions for the Kings and team USA show more than enough evidence to judge him fatally out of touch with the league.

I always felt a move where Dean took the John Davidson role and Blake worked for him, made the most sense. Let Blake fire Sutter and Stevens and pick a fresh staff.

But we have what we have. Which is now a publicly overpaid Drew Doughty, also totally debatable.

I do think Blake will end up trading Drew to get the team into the playoffs down the road in the next 4 years. It will be pure schadenfreude if it happens.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

What's with the random pot shots at DL all the time?

Was the original question.

Because I mentioned what a Dean Lombardi assembled team would look like if he started with a clean slate, and that 2016 World Cup team was an example of what kind of team he put together when he had free reign.

Was your myopic response, that DL somehow deserves constant pot shots from you from thread to thread because of the World Cup team, which is easily rebutted with what DL accomplished here, before you veer off into total non-sequiturs like

What exactly am I strawmanning? Five years of evidence? And what comment did I not address? You guys continue to bury your heads in the stand when the fact is brought up that the Kings have the lowest playoff winning percentage since 2015. Out of 31 teams, no team has had less playoff success in half a decade.

Is half a decade of statistics considered a small sample size to you?

Oh right, DL, Kings GM Dean Lombardi from 2015 to 2019 and nothing before except the World Cup of Hockey apparently.


Look you're entitled to your opinion, you can hate DL all you want. But you can't be upset when people are just pointing out how far off the road you've driven to justify the false parts.