Around the League 2018-2019 Part 3

[KINGS17]

So, you are now admitting that 3 of the teams that were in the conference finals went through an on the fly retool, rather than a full tear down rebuild right?

As for your second part, I'm not sure exactly what you are saying.

Should I not comment because I don't have a record to run on here?
Are your opinions the only ones that matter because you wanted the team to trade Carter?

What I told you before is that the Kings are not in a comparable position with Boston, San Jose, St. Louis, and Carolina.

 

[KINGS17]

That was a hypothetical that you never answered...it wasn't a plan...sheesh.

My "plan" (if you want to call it that) consists of:
(1) not letting this core whither and die
(2) keep draft picks and get younger
(3) find a 2c this summer to fill a gaping hole which even Blake said needed to be addressed
(4) Add a 4/5 veteran defenseman

That doesn't sound very radical to me...I'm shocked there is such pushback on actually not letting the team become the 1974 Washington Capitals!

I got it. It was just a mission statement, right? I knew I wasn't supposed to take the idea of trading both 1st round picks this year seriously. Maybe that's why you didn't like the response I did give you. BTW, how do you trade this year's first round picks for the stud 2C that will make everything all better while doing number 2 on your list? Or did your plan just become number 2?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Notice how you left out Carlo and McAvoy picks in back-to-back drafts. They hit a home run with Pastrnak with the 25th overall in 2014 as well. Why, because they had plenty of picks.

Time will tell. The Kings will miss the playoffs again in the coming season, or if they're lucky be eliminated in the first round, and all they will have to show for it is Carter, Brown, Kopitar, and Doughty are a year older. Probably won't make the playoffs again in 2020-21, and Kopitar will be turning 34 during that off season. Yeah, you're right on the money, the Kings were absolutely right to hang onto all their vets for this long.

Keep going with the failed rhetoric of the retool though by all means. None of the players the Kings took in last year's draft, or in this year's draft will be contributing in the NHL when Kopitar is 34, and Doughty is 31.

Bergeron is 33 and Chara is 42.

There are some obvious difference in the situations of Boston and LA but pretending it's impossible that some of LA's current prospects could pull off what some of Boston's did is just raw pessimism, not any sort of fact. For all we know, Anderson turns into McAvoy and Clague Krug immediately, Vilardi reprises the role of Pastrnak, and Turcotte comes in gangbusters.

It's not likely, but neither was Boston's retool, and that's with a lot of collateral damage with wasted/not-panned-out picks as noted in the previous pages.

The only 'failed rhetoric' is that any path is certain.

 

[tomd]

Bergeron is 33 and Chara is 42.

There are some obvious difference in the situations of Boston and LA but pretending it's impossible that some of LA's current prospects could pull off what some of Boston's did is just raw pessimism, not any sort of fact. For all we know, Anderson turns into McAvoy and Clague Krug immediately, Vilardi reprises the role of Pastrnak, and Turcotte comes in gangbusters
It's not likely, but neither was Boston's retool, and that's with a lot of collateral damage with wasted/not-panned-out picks as noted in the previous pages.

The only 'failed rhetoric' is that any path is certain.

Boston's entire organ-eye-zation fosters a winning culture. They could have packed it in and done a rebuild after missing the playoffs in 14-15 and 15-16 but they kept the core together and made moves to get better. And yes, that included smart drafting. But I imagine there isn't a fan in Boston Gardens tonight or watching the game on TV that wishes they had done a rebuild. And at the same time you have to give major credit to St Louis and their management for not throwing away the season in January when they were the worst team in the league. Win or lose, both teams are to be emulated.

It's about a culture of winning. Building it is very difficult. Maintaining it needs to be a daily organ-eye-zational focus. Losing it is a choice. I guess we'll see where LA fits on the spectrum in the next couple of years.

 

[BigKing]

The difference with Boston is they moved valuable assets while they could still help their team while LA has held everyone except for Muzzin with Muzzin being ground zero for this retool or whatever the hell they are now doing.

Blake moves Carter in 2017--coming off 30 goals--and he can most likely get a good prospect and a 1st. Both of those assets could be helping now--and in the future--more than Carter. Now, if Carter doesn't get hurt, maybe he's still pretty good as he continues to age but the point is that there has been no innovative moves or "business decisions" by Lombardi or Blake until the Muzzin trade.

The idea of not letting the core wither or continuing to add to the core is what they've been doing. It's over but, if it isn't, they need to prove it isn't over but Blake isn't going to be so easy to fool again like he was with the 2018 season. This team made him look like a fool as his two biggest moves so far--Stevens hire and Kovy signing--completely blew up in his face. If they make it difficult for him to just stand pat next off-season, then good for them. I'm sure he will welcome that but I feel it won't be as simple as last off-season with "Need more PP goals. Sign old guy that used to be good at PP. Cup is ours." They should have even more cap space though so a marked improvement this season could lead to moves next off-season but it is silly to use assets to try and make it happen immediately. You might think it is foolish to waste this one upcoming season but trying to go for it now could wind up wasting five more season. It's like supporting the Lucic trade in 2019.

As for Boston...take a look at the two years they missed the playoffs. 96 points in 2015. Over 90 again the next season. Playoffs every year since. Kings should have made it in 2015 as well but they've also put up two season much worse than the years the Bruins missed, including this latest shit sandwich. The only real comparison that can be made is that *maybe* the Kings have already crushed a draft and/or will crush this upcoming one so they can compete quicker than last season's performance would lead one to believe.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Boston's entire organ-eye-zation fosters a winning culture. They could have packed it in and done a rebuild after missing the playoffs in 14-15 and 15-16 but they kept the core together and made moves to get better. And yes, that included smart drafting. But I imagine there isn't a fan in Boston Gardens tonight or watching the game on TV that wishes they had done a rebuild. And at the same time you have to give major credit to St Louis and their management for not throwing away the season in January when they were the worst team in the league. Win or lose, both teams are to be emulated.

It's about a culture of winning. Building it is very difficult. Maintaining it needs to be a daily organ-eye-zational focus. Losing it is a choice. I guess we'll see where LA fits on the spectrum in the next couple of years.

It's tough not to get a feel of that already. Missed the playoffs in 3 out of 5 years. 1-8 in the playoffs, including 0-5 at home. Also a 30th overall finish. Every season fluctuates between ok and fairly crappy for a whole list of reasons. When the Bruins missed a couple years ago, it came down to the wire both times. The Blues, when they missed last year, it was by a point. A no name goalie saved their butts this year.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Blake moves Carter in 2017--coming off 30 goals--and he can most likely get a good prospect and a 1st.

People keep saying that, but it's very unlikely they get that back for Carter by 2017. He was already 32 by the 2017 deadline, with 5 years left. Go around the league, pick someone with good stats, but name the 32 year old that has been traded for a good prospect and a 1st. Especially an old guy with term. They would've been very lucky to get the equivalent of what they gave up to get him 5 years earlier.

 

[BigKing]

People keep saying that, but it's very unlikely they get that back for Carter by 2017. He was already 32 by the 2017 deadline, with 5 years left. Go around the league, pick someone with good stats, but name the 32 year old that has been traded for a good prospect and a 1st. Especially an old guy with term. They would've been very lucky to get the equivalent of what they gave up to get him 5 years earlier.

Possibly, but he was coming off three straight 60+ point seasons, 32 goals and is a two-time Cup winner.

Toronto gave Marleau $6.25MM for three seasons with a NMC that off-season. Carter is five years younger and would have only two more years on that Marleau deal. Could be traded as well.

Boston gave Backes $6MM for five years the season prior. NMC as well. He's older than Carter.

Make no mistake: he had value that off-season. It is for that very reason that he wasn't traded: Blake was banking on another 60 points from Carter for that season and beyond. Instead, he gets hurt and now looks like a shell of his former self that you couldn't give away last season. But this all plays in to how Blake did nothing his first off-season, got an outlier Kopitar season and decided that this team was a contender. I love Vilardi's potential and can't really bash him for making that pick, but possibly getting nothing with the first 1st round pick since Kempe is just a cherry on the sundae for Blake's first two years. Boston type retool? Needed to start the second DL was canned and Blake took over. Instead, Blake basically just carried on with Lombardi's methods except he kept the picks, something Lombardi was doing anyways for that draft.

To be fair to Bowlby, I do think AEG mandated playoffs since they were paying all that salary. It's only now after how horrible last season was that they are listening to a retool and the idea of cashing in on the Cups may have finally run its course.

 

[tomd]

It's tough not to get a feel of that already. Missed the playoffs in 3 out of 5 years. 1-8 in the playoffs, including 0-5 at home. Also a 30th overall finish. Every season fluctuates between ok and fairly crappy for a whole list of reasons. When the Bruins missed a couple years ago, it came down to the wire both times. The Blues, when they missed last year, it was by a point. A no name goalie saved their butts this year.

well the kings had better hope they can draft a Bobby Clarke clone this year or next then! Can you imagine trying to integrate 19-20-21 year olds on to a team where they see Kopitar and Doughty mailing it in and enjoying the beach life because they've given up on winning? And I agree, last year felt like that watching them every night.

I would love to have been a fly on the wall when Blake was pitching the coaching job to TM. TM doesn't strike me as the type who will "take a year off".

 

[BigKing]

well the kings had better hope they can draft a Bobby Clarke clone this year or next then! Can you imagine trying to integrate 19-20-21 year olds on to a team where they see Kopitar and Doughty mailing it in and enjoying the beach life because they've given up on winning? And I agree, last year felt like that watching them every night.

I would love to have been a fly on the wall when Blake was pitching the coaching job to TM. TM doesn't strike me as the type who will "take a year off".

He won't take a year off. He's going to coach the players he is given and try to win every night while instilling accountability.

That's his job.

 

[tomd]

He won't take a year off. He's going to coach the players he is given and try to win every night while instilling accountability.

That's his job.

He'll be singularly unsuccessful without Blake and Luc starting TOMORROW to begin instilling a winning culture. For the life of me, though, I can't understand not wanting to bring in a couple of players to fill holes. Even Lombardi did that in the "bridge" era. What I'm hearing from you and others is that Blake should do NOTHING to add talent or character to the 19-20 roster. I just don't get it.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Possibly, but he was coming off three straight 60+ point seasons, 32 goals and is a two-time Cup winner.

Toronto gave Marleau $6.25MM for three seasons with a NMC that off-season. Carter is five years younger and would have only two more years on that Marleau deal. Could be traded as well.

Boston gave Backes $6MM for five years the season prior. NMC as well. He's older than Carter.

Make no mistake: he had value that off-season. It is for that very reason that he wasn't traded: Blake was banking on another 60 points from Carter for that season and beyond. Instead, he gets hurt and now looks like a shell of his former self that you couldn't give away last season. But this all plays in to how Blake did nothing his first off-season, got an outlier Kopitar season and decided that this team was a contender. I love Vilardi's potential and can't really bash him for making that pick, but possibly getting nothing with the first 1st round pick since Kempe is just a cherry on the sundae for Blake's first two years. Boston type retool? Needed to start the second DL was canned and Blake took over. Instead, Blake basically just carried on with Lombardi's methods except he kept the picks, something Lombardi was doing anyways for that draft.

To be fair to Bowlby, I do think AEG mandated playoffs since they were paying all that salary. It's only now after how horrible last season was that they are listening to a retool and the idea of cashing in on the Cups may have finally run its course.

Did Toronto or Boston give anything up for Marleau or Backes? If Carter was a free agent that year, he's getting a stupid contract, no doubt about it. Look at the rumor with Kessel last week. It wasn't a good prospect and a 1st. It was Zucker as the main piece, a decent 27 year old at $5.5m for 4 more years. Kessel also has more control over where he goes than Carter did, but I think we're blaming anyone involved with the Kings too much if the expectation for a return on Carter in 2017 is a youthful haul. I don't think that's fair given what the league is with the hard cap and everything.

well the kings had better hope they can draft a Bobby Clarke clone this year or next then! Can you imagine trying to integrate 19-20-21 year olds on to a team where they see Kopitar and Doughty mailing it in and enjoying the beach life because they've given up on winning? And I agree, last year felt like that watching them every night.

I would love to have been a fly on the wall when Blake was pitching the coaching job to TM. TM doesn't strike me as the type who will "take a year off".

Before this year started, I was still, well anything can happen with this team. You never know. They beat that out of me with whatever they were doing this year. I have zero expectations going into September, because I have no idea if they will even listen to another new coach. I'm fully on board with whatever TM has as a plan, but this general roster is 0-5 at home in the playoffs since Jazz Hands. That's just a pathetic number. Teams have been walking into LA, and basically owning the Kings, for a number of years.

I guess a professional effort would be enough for next year.

 

[BigKing]

He'll be singularly unsuccessful without Blake and Luc starting TOMORROW to begin instilling a winning culture. For the life of me, though, I can't understand not wanting to bring in a couple of players to fill holes. Even Lombardi did that in the "bridge" era. What I'm hearing from you and others is that Blake should do NOTHING to add talent or character to the 19-20 roster. I just don't get it.

Look at these rosters:

2006-07 Los Angeles Kings Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

2007-08 Los Angeles Kings Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

He signed a bunch of trash and basically brought in Blake for "leadership". This team already has two-time Cup winners on it that are vets, are being payed a ton. He doesn't need to bring some more vets in to instill some f***ing culture: the current vets need to bring it.

 

[BigKing]

Did Toronto or Boston give anything up for Marleau or Backes? If Carter was a free agent that year, he's getting a stupid contract, no doubt about it. Look at the rumor with Kessel last week. It wasn't a good prospect and a 1st. It was Zucker as the main piece, a decent 27 year old at $5.5m for 4 more years. Kessel also has more control over where he goes than Carter did, but I think we're blaming anyone involved with the Kings too much if the expectation for a return on Carter in 2017 is a youthful haul. I don't think that's fair given what the league is with the hard cap and everything.



Before this year started, I was still, well anything can happen with this team. You never know. They beat that out of me with whatever they were doing this year. I have zero expectations going into September, because I have no idea if they will even listen to another new coach. I'm fully on board with whatever TM has as a plan, but this general roster is 0-5 at home in the playoffs since Jazz Hands. That's just a pathetic number. Teams have been walking into LA, and basically owning the Kings, for a number of years.

I guess a professional effort would be enough for next year.

I believe that teams are even more weary of the cap now than even two off-seasons ago so I wouldn't necessarily use Kessel as a comp, but I don't hate it. I think teams are smarter now than back then. Fair point, but I think he gets a better return than the Kessel deal.

 

[KINGS17]

Bergeron is 33 and Chara is 42.

There are some obvious difference in the situations of Boston and LA but pretending it's impossible that some of LA's current prospects could pull off what some of Boston's did is just raw pessimism, not any sort of fact. For all we know, Anderson turns into McAvoy and Clague Krug immediately, Vilardi reprises the role of Pastrnak, and Turcotte comes in gangbusters.

It's not likely, but neither was Boston's retool, and that's with a lot of collateral damage with wasted/not-panned-out picks as noted in the previous pages.

The only 'failed rhetoric' is that any path is certain.

You know I have constantly said there are no guarantees with a rebuild. I have simply said I view it as the option most likely to succeed. I use the words "likely" and "unlikely" in my posts frequently. Just in case anyone doesn't know this, none of us know the future. Some going back five years ago (the pro-Richards compliance buy out people as an example) have been more correct about what is most likely to come in the future.

People in favor of the "retool" jumped right in with "look at Boston", to which I responded the Kings are not comparable to Boston when the Bruins started their rebuild. You have freely acknowledged this in your post above.

Let's go over your post above and you calling what I posted "raw pessimism". First I will remind you I was one of the few optimists during years 1-5 of Lombardi's tenure, and kept telling everyone he was on the right track. Many here wanted Lombardi fired back in 2010-11, or even sooner, so I am not a pessimist.

Now, let's go over your "anything can happen" scenario:

1. Anderson could turn into the Kings version of McAvoy. I would say out of all the things you listed, this may have the best chance of happening.

2. Clague could turn into the Kings version of Krug. Based on reports from other posters who frequently watch Ontario games in person. Not too likely, at least not in the near future.

3. Vilardi reprises the role of Pastrnak. Uh, not going to happen.

4. Turcotte comes in gangbusters. Ok maybe, but the kid is only 18, and on his way to Wisconsin for at least a couple of seasons. This is if he is even there when the Kings pick, which would be ideal, but not likely, in my opinion.

In order for a "retool" to be successful all of these things, or something similar to them, have to happen before Kopitar and Doughty are no longer effective. To your credit you said it isn't likely to happen, which is exactly what I have been saying over a much longer period of time.

Maybe you should save these kind of posts for the "eternal optimists". I didn't pretend it's impossible. I said it's not going to happen, which by the way is short hand for not very likely. I don't think I need to , and I won't, qualify every single post as being my opinion or what is likely or unlikely about the future.

I have been pragmatic in the past when I supported Lombardi's plan, and nothing has changed about the way I post today.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

You no I have constantly said there are no guarantees with a rebuild. I have simply said I view it as the option most likely to succeed. I use the words "likely" and "unlikely" in my posts frequently. Just in case anyone doesn't know this, none of us know the future. Some going back five years ago (the pro-Richards compliance buy out people as an example) have been more correct about what is most likely to come in the future.

People in favor of the "retool" jumped right in with "look at Boston", to which I responded the Kings are not comparable to Boston when the Bruins started their rebuild. You have freely acknowledged this in your post above.

Let's go over your post above and you calling what I posted "raw pessimism". First I will remind you I was one of the few optimists during years 1-5 of Lombardi's tenure, and kept telling everyone he was on the right track. Many here wanted Lombardi fired back in 2010-11, or even sooner, so I am not a pessimist.

Now, let's go over your "anything can happen" scenario:

1. Anderson could turn into the Kings version of McAvoy. I would say out of all the things you listed, this may have the best chance of happening.

2. Clague could turn into the Kings version of Krug. Based on reports from other posters who frequently watch Ontario games in person. Not too likely, at least not in the near future.

3. Vilardi reprises teh role of Pastrnak. Uh, not going to happen.

4. Turcotte comes in gangbusters. Ok maybe, but the kid is only 18, and on his way to Wisconsin for at least a couple of seasons. This is if he is even there when the Kings pick, which would be ideal, but not likely, in my opinion.

In order for a "retool" to be successful all of these things, or something similar to them, have to happen before Kopitar and Doughty are no longer effective. To your credit you said it isn't likely to happen, which is exactly what I have been saying over a much longer period of time.

Maybe you should save these kind of posts for the "eternal optimists". I didn't pretend it's impossible. I said it's not going to happen, which by the way is short hand for not very likely. I don't think I need to , and I won't, qualify every single post as being my opinion or what is likely or unlikely about the future.

I have been pragmatic in the past when I supported Lombardi's plan, and nothing has changed about the way I post today.

I probably wasn't real clear so I'm sorry for that. I know my post was a reply to you but it was less "at" you and more of general observations that you and I have actually (mostly) agreed on here. I just don't like people acting like our prospects are crap OR absolute gold guaranteed to meet potential. Example, your #3 here is stating with near-certainty that Vilardi can't be Pastrnak when I think everything in his pedigree suggests he could. even Pastrnak's first years there were questions about his durability and ability to succeed in spite of it, if you don't recall. People remember a 22-23 year old Pastrnak getting 80 points--but a teenage Pastrnak was fighting injury and strugging to break 20.

 

[KINGS17]

I probably wasn't real clear so I'm sorry for that. I know my post was a reply to you but it was less "at" you and more of general observations that you and I have actually (mostly) agreed on here. I just don't like people acting like our prospects are crap OR absolute gold guaranteed to meet potential. Example, your #3 here is stating with near-certainty that Vilardi can't be Pastrnak when I think everything in his pedigree suggests he could. even Pastrnak's first years there were questions about his durability and ability to succeed in spite of it, if you don't recall. People remember a 22-23 year old Pastrnak getting 80 points--but a teenage Pastrnak was fighting injury and strugging to break 20.

Yeah, I feel bad for Vilardi. The health of his back is a major issue. I don't want to see a kid's dreams dashed before he even gets a chance, but if he misses another season in almost its entirety, or injures his back again, you have to wonder.

I don't recall the nature of Pastrnak's injury, so maybe you can fill me in.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Yeah, I feel bad for Vilardi. The health of his back is a major issue. I don't want to see a kid's dreams dashed before he even gets a chance, but if he misses another season in almost its entirety, or injures his back again, you have to wonder.

I don't recall the nature of Pastrnak's injury, so maybe you can fill me in.

It wasn't one major issue like Vilardi's back, but a slew of smaller ones when his size and durability were already a question. I remember a broken foot hounding him around the WJC time (post draft) on top of the questions of his willingness to 'play hard' because of that. Don't recall the others offhand and he wasn't totally sidelined like Gabriel, just pointing out it's not like he crashed the league immediately either.

 

[BigKing]

Vilardi is a Top 5 pick his draft year if not for injury concerns. Regulate watched him in Ontario and saw enough in little time to know this kid has the talent to be an impact player.

Can't count on him, but he can accelerate this retool or whatever if he gets past these injuries. Real wild card.

 

[tomd]

Vilardi is a Top 5 pick his draft year if not for injury concerns. Regulate watched him in Ontario and saw enough in little time to know this kid has the talent to be an impact player.

Can't count on him, but he can accelerate this retool or whatever if he gets past these injuries. Real wild card.

Serious question...did Vilardi have injury concerns in his draft year? I don't remember reading about them being an issue in why he dropped. I do remember there being skating concerns. He was expected to be picked in the top 5 but wasn't. I looked at a couple of scouting reports from 2017 just now and injuries weren't mentioned.

 

[KINGS17]

Vilardi is a Top 5 pick his draft year if not for injury concerns. Regulate watched him in Ontario and saw enough in little time to know this kid has the talent to be an impact player.

Can't count on him, but he can accelerate this retool or whatever if he gets past these injuries. Real wild card.

If Vilardi can make it back to full health somehow, I feel confident he can at the very least be a solid 2C.

After missing so much time though, if he does make it back soon, I would like to see him play almost an entire year in Ontario to get his timing and confidence back fully.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Serious question...did Vilardi have injury concerns in his draft year? I don't remember reading about them being an issue in why he dropped. I do remember there being skating concerns. He was expected to be picked in the top 5 but wasn't. I looked at a couple of scouting reports from 2017 just now and injuries weren't mentioned.

Not in the lingering sense like his back but he had an appendix issue and a knee injury. He had also missed games all his previous years. But no one suggested that was a concern really, they just saw the raw potential and an unrelated series of injuries.

 

[tomd]

Not in the lingering sense like his back but he had an appendix issue and a knee injury. He had also missed games all his previous years. But no one suggested that was a concern really, they just saw the raw potential and an unrelated series of injuries.

That's what I remember as well. AFTER the draft and his back injury there were whispers that maybe the scouting community knew there was some serious health concerns but that was never made public before the draft. If those whispers were true and the Kings scouts knew about them then they gambled and maybe lost. On the surface, there is no reason he should have dropped out of the top 7.

Makes me wonder if they'll stay away from Turcotte. Once bitten, twice shy.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

 

[kings11]

Right off the back, Eliminate the following teams because they arent winning it..
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Sharks
Flames
Predators
^^^^Will not win^^^^ Always the bridesmaid, never the bride