Armchair GM

[jgimp]

Very nice - but I think they draft a goalie in 3 or 4th round

I wouldn’t mind burning one of our 2nd’s for Leionen. Maybe use our 7th for a 2nd goalie.

 

[jgimp]

Didn't know where to post this, but this is how I concluded the Jets' 7-round mock draft:

16 - Owen Pickering, LHD, Swift Current (WHL)
54 - Josh Filmon, LW, Swift Current (WHL)
57 - Liam Steele, RHD, Stanstead College (HS-ON)
77 - Devin Kaplan, RW, USA NTDP (USHL)
98 - Leo Gruba, RHD, Hill-Murray (HS-MN)
176 - Cade Littler, C, Wenatchee Wild (BCHL)
208 - Cameron O'Neill, RW, Mount St. Charles Academy (18U AAA)
215 - Alexander Smolin - Stalnye Lisy Magnitigorsk (MHL)

I was keeping track of that. I was scratching my head when you traded Lundmark for a late 7th.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I was keeping track of that. I was scratching my head when you traded Lundmark for a late 7th.

I was going to select Morden with that other 7th before Seattle did, and the 7th I traded for I was going to select O'Neill. But Smolin was a very good pick too. I think the players I drafted late will be NHL bloomers one day. Something similar to Nathan Smith.

Lundmark I don't see going far with the Jets too so I thought why not, even me being aware he was taken in the 2nd round. Guessing you disliked it.

 

[jgimp]

I was going to select Morden with that other 7th before Seattle did, and the 7th I traded for I was going to select O'Neill. But Smolin was a very good pick too. I think the players I drafted late will be NHL bloomers one day. Something similar to Nathan Smith.

Lundmark I don't see going far with the Jets too so I thought why not, even me being aware he was taken in the 2nd round. Guessing you disliked it.

Not without knowing who you were picking. I’m ok giving up Lundmark especially since I don’t see him anything more than a Moose player and maybe a call up. Just figured he was worth more than that. I figured you had someone you felt strongly about.

 

[Ducky10]

Curious to why mods delete posts and ban posters when they praise ehlers over scheifele or wheeler.

They don’t, trust me.

 

[ThinIce61]

I'm doing a school project, lol, been out of school for nearing 40 years but wondering if someone could crank out some names of really good defensive dmen on the right side that we could get in a trade or via FA.

Same scenario with some 4th line winger types who are good, responsible, 200 foot players who could PK.

 

[GaryPoppins]

My armchair summer:

Fire Lowry, Huddy & Kompon.

Fire Chevy(his drafting is average and 3 playoff wins in 11 years would get you fired anywhere else.)

Hire AGM from Carolina or Tampa and task them with re-establishing scouting department; haven’t been impressed with our scouting and we need to be on the same page with our coaching on what types of players they want.

Hire a coach that deploys his team
Similarly to Rob Brind’a’mour

Sign PLD as long as I can.

Trade Schmidt for anything and migrate Dillon to the right(him and Samberg play well together but him and Ville could also be solid together)

Trade Stanley(while his value is still there) for a middle six forward of similar pedigree.

Find out what the hell is going on with 55 and 26. To start, strip their letters and see how they react; will tell you everything you need to know about them.

Use the surplus 2nd rounder from NY for more offensive depth/middle 6 player.

Play the kids.

 

[voyageur]

Last 3 years Copp and Lowry weren't all that great together: 45 XGF and not doung great on the other metrics as well. Copp is a 50 XGF player without Lowry and Lowry is a 47 XGF player without Copp.

I don't like using advanced stats to justify what a primarily defensive zone faceoff line achieves. Their goal is primarily to not get scored on, because the faceoff possession arrow has been lost. And advance the puck into a possession zone. Early in the year Adam Lowry was able to do this, I'd say his stats decline about when his dad took over and the injuries hit, with some of the wingers he had to carry When I talk about Lowry-Copp I think of the first shift with Tanev of game 5 against St. Louis. They went out and got the opening goal. For all the flack Lowry gets, he is better at goal scoring than Dubois 5/5 per 60 so far this season. And Dubois's output was less than Scheifele from previous years on the top offensive zone line. So when you adjust for who the top line winger is on this team, that produces the most shots, I think there is room for improvement top to bottom on this team. I would have liked to see a coach try to match a game with a power line. There's something to be said about team like Colorado, Calgary, Nashville for part of the season, that put their best players on the top line. Especially where Stastny and Ehlers have been rock solid this year as a second line. I hope those sort of statistics beyond analytics factor in the decision making of next season's Jets team.

With this same team you could run
Connor-Scheifele-Dubois
Perfetti-Stastny-Ehlers
Barron-Lowry-Wheeler
Svetchnikov-Gustafsson-Appleton

And probably compete. If the defense and goaltending improves.

 

[surixon]

I don't like using advanced stats to justify what a primarily defensive zone faceoff line achieves. Their goal is primarily to not get scored on, because the faceoff possession arrow has been lost. And advance the puck into a possession zone. Early in the year Adam Lowry was able to do this, I'd say his stats decline about when his dad took over and the injuries hit, with some of the wingers he had to carry When I talk about Lowry-Copp I think of the first shift with Tanev of game 5 against St. Louis. They went out and got the opening goal. For all the flack Lowry gets, he is better at goal scoring than Dubois 5/5 per 60 so far this season. And Dubois's output was less than Scheifele from previous years on the top offensive zone line. So when you adjust for who the top line winger is on this team, that produces the most shots, I think there is room for improvement top to bottom on this team. I would have liked to see a coach try to match a game with a power line. There's something to be said about team like Colorado, Calgary, Nashville for part of the season, that put their best players on the top line. Especially where Stastny and Ehlers have been rock solid this year as a second line. I hope those sort of statistics beyond analytics factor in the decision making of next season's Jets team.

The point I was making is that Lowry has largely played the same role with or without Copp and the results the last three years haven't been better with Copp then without.

Also why are you just cherry picking the goal stat. In terms of total P/60 he's fourth worst on the entire team. His production rate is poor even for fourth line players.

Dubois hasn't scored enough at 5 on 5 but is still scoring at a second line rate. He's more then made up for that by driving play at a high level and scoring at a very high rate on the PP. Also a lot is luck, Dubois is shooting half his career 5 on 5 shooting percentage despite having his highest iXG/60 if his career. Lowry is pretty much shooting his career average.

Your story about the Blues series really makes my point for me. Pretty much everything that most people turn to to show that Lowry is a very good suppression third line center happened three or four years ago. He has not shown himself to be that player going on three years now. He's 29 and plays a highly physical game and never had much skill to begin with, those types tend to decline quicker. It shouldn't be a given he gets the 3C at his current ability and performance.

 

[voyageur]

The point I was making is that Lowry has largely played the same role with or without Copp and the results the last three years haven't been better with Copp then without.

Also why are you just cherry picking the goal stat. In terms of total P/60 he's fourth worst on the entire team. His production rate is poor even for fourth line players.

Dubois hasn't scored enough at 5 on 5 but is still scoring at a second line rate. He's more then made up for that by driving play at a high level and scoring at a very high rate on the PP. Also a lot is luck, Dubois is shooting half his career 5 on 5 shooting percentage despite having his highest iXG/60 if his career. Lowry is pretty much shooting his career average.

Your story about the Blues series really makes my point for me. Pretty much everything that most people turn to to show that Lowry is a very good suppression third line center happened three or four years ago. He has not shown himself to be that player going on three years now. He's 29 and plays a highly physical game and never had much skill to begin with, those types tend to decline quicker. It shouldn't be a given he gets the 3C at his current ability and performance.

You only have to look back to last year, and how many points Mc David scored against the Jets in Winnipeg. Who was a plus player in the Montreal series? My favourite Adam Lowry memory is when he took over the 2c from Bryan Little down the stretch in his 2015 rookie season, to get the Jets into their first ever playoff series.

The stretch this season where he had Poganski or Reichel as his RW was a big turning point in the season because the Jets didn't put a lot of points on the board. I'm not expecting a lot of points out of Adam Lowry (25-30 is probably the watermark) but I am A OK with having a physical checking line as part of the Jets identity. Jets might need more parts than AHL promotions to achieve that, because no one on the bottom lines has stepped up this year. I think management has to aseess whether that's a personnel issue or coaching.

 

[surixon]

You only have to look back to last year, and how many points Mc David scored against the Jets in Winnipeg. Who was a plus player in the Montreal series? My favourite Adam Lowry memory is when he took over the 2c from Bryan Little down the stretch in his 2015 rookie season, to get the Jets into their first ever playoff series.

The stretch this season where he had Poganski or Reichel as his RW was a big turning point in the season because the Jets didn't put a lot of points on the board. I'm not expecting a lot of points out of Adam Lowry (25-30 is probably the watermark) but I am A OK with having a physical checking line as part of the Jets identity. Jets might need more parts than AHL promotions to achieve that, because no one on the bottom lines has stepped up this year. I think management has to aseess whether that's a personnel issue or coaching.

Let's give credit for last year to the person who deserves it and that is Helle who posted a .950 save percentage at 5 on 5. That was tops in the playoffs.

Lowry was thoroughly dominated in his matchups. 40% CF, 38% XGF. Last year isn't an example of good suppression its an example of Helle playing in God mode.

Yes there are some good memories of Lowry in his time here but I think you are guilty of making the same mistakes management is making. They are hung up on the the great 17-18 season and the performance of the players that year and assume that is what they still have in the core group. Wheeler keeps getting trotted out for the same usage despite not being bear as good, they keep trying to build a suppression line around Lowry despite him not suppressing much of anything the last 3 years etc.

The org needs to take a hard and honest look at where each player is now and form the team using that info, not the rose colored tint ones that view them as if they are still the same players they were in 2018.

 

[voyageur]

Let's give credit for last year to the person who deserves it and that is Helle who posted a .950 save percentage at 5 on 5. That was tops in the playoffs.

Lowry was thoroughly dominated in his matchups. 40% CF, 38% XGF. Last year isn't an example of good suppression its an example of Helle playing in God mode.

Yes there are some good memories of Lowry in his time here but I think you are guilty of making the same mistakes management is making. They are hung up on the the great 17-18 season and the performance of the players that year and assume that is what they still have in the core group. Wheeler keeps getting trotted out for the same usage despite not being bear as good, they keep trying to build a suppression line around Lowry despite him not suppressing much of anything the last 3 years etc.

The org needs to take a hard and honest look at where each player is now and form the team using that info, not the rose colored tint ones that view them as if they are still the same players they were in 2018.

I told you not to use Corsi when defining a defensive zone player, and what do you do you come at me with Corsi and XGF. So I am not going to argue this anymore. You could build a team out of Corsi and XGF and GAR. And exclude everything else that happens on the ice. At one point this season I think the best Corsi line we had was Ehlers-Lowry. When you analyze what a player does when they are playing with our best player and most prolific shooter, vs. an Austen Poganski from two different ends of the ice, and come up with the perceived solution to the problem, I think your solution is flawed. When you discount the end results for predicted results, I don't know what else to say....So we'll disagree, respectfully.

 

[DashingDane]

Step away for one season and the Jets collapse without me as an armchair GM...

 

[Gil Fisher]

They don’t, trust me.

only when you sign it #truckfrudeau

 

[Al Camino]

This was more on how I wanted feedback on what other Jets fans thought. I've done lots on HF Mock Drafts, but think this is my best to date considering what I drafted in the later rounds. I tried to trade up to draft Geekie, as a Scheifele replacement down the road if it's true he gets traded. Too good of a fit for us.

I’ll admit that I have watched very little of Geekie but his skating would be a concern for me. It’s gotten better but he’s still a bit of a sled.
And given their draft record lately I’m not sure they should be trading up. If they manage to land NYR first rounder this year maybe trading down to get more picks? Again I have no idea. Just throwing it out there.

 

[Al Camino]

My armchair summer:

Fire Lowry, Huddy & Kompon.

Fire Chevy(his drafting is average and 3 playoff wins in 11 years would get you fired anywhere else.)

Hire AGM from Carolina or Tampa and task them with re-establishing scouting department; haven’t been impressed with our scouting and we need to be on the same page with our coaching on what types of players they want.

Hire a coach that deploys his team
Similarly to Rob Brind’a’mour

Sign PLD as long as I can.

Trade Schmidt for anything and migrate Dillon to the right(him and Samberg play well together but him and Ville could also be solid together)

Trade Stanley(while his value is still there) for a middle six forward of similar pedigree.

Find out what the hell is going on with 55 and 26. To start, strip their letters and see how they react; will tell you everything you need to know about them.

Use the surplus 2nd rounder from NY for more offensive depth/middle 6 player.

Play the kids.

I can get behind this.

The drafting has produced no impact players since 2016 when they won a lottery. They had Ehlers, Connor and Perfetti fall into their laps. Points for realizing others mistakes. But when you look at the second and third rounds there is some truly terrifying results. Not being able to draft a replacement for Lowry in 10 years is equally puzzling. Of course maybe Heinola and Samberg are ready which indicates they just don’t know how to evaluate and integrate what they have. Either way not good.

I don’t think you can strip them of their letters but if you trade 55 in my mind there’s a really good chance 26 demands a trade too. Kinda like two birds with one stone.Not sure what you can get and how much $$ you have to take back though.

Lastly I’d add trading Lowry. I just don’t like that contract term for the production that you get. He’s a luxury you don’t need. Is Lowry, Appleton Barron/Sanford anyone’s idea of contending third line? Like seriously how many wins would you lose if you got rid of him?

 

[HellebuyckOurSaviour]

I'd like to see us sign that Hobey Baker Award winner Dryden McKay.

 

[ennsjd07]

I think the Jets drafted Lowry's replacement when they drafted Gus. #hottakes

 

[surixon]

I'd like to see us sign that Hobey Baker Award winner Dryden McKay.

That would be a solid move. We definitely need more talent in bet here and Helle only has two years left.

His numbers in all four years of college are exceptional

 

[HellebuyckOurSaviour]

That would be a solid move. We definitely need more talent in bet here and Helle only has two years left.

His numbers in all four years of college are exceptional

Exactly. Wouldn't be bad to sign him to at least a 2 or 3 year at $900,000yr. Cause in 2 years if Helle plays top 10 in one or both years and our team still isn't the greatest, he could come back with the "well look how well I've played in net for you guys the last 6 years, I want x amount of dollars a year now" and then what? Comrie I don't think will be our starter, Berdin hasn't even been given a shot yet and not sure if he would or can be our starter. Holm still a ways to go. Might be able to get one of those diamonds in the rough with McKay.

 

[Heldig]

Slew of stories following Ehlers, Connors, and Stastny's comments about culture, inconsistency and desire to play the right way.

Pretty damning commentary by the guys many see as the new core...Scheifele is injured so it makes sense he has not been interviewed but where is Wheeler? Morrissey? Lowry? And - maybe more worrisome - Dubois?

 

[surixon]

Slew of stories following Ehlers, Connors, and Stastny's comments about culture, inconsistency and desire to play the right way.

Pretty damning commentary by the guys many see as the new core...Scheifele is injured so it makes sense he has not been interviewed but where is Wheeler? Morrissey? Lowry? And - maybe more worrisome - Dubois?

Morrissey and Dubois have done tonnes of interviews this season. Wheeler doesn't get asked for and we'll Lowry is likely not seen as a core piece by media but he was interviewed in practice just yesterday

 

[WolfHouse]

Slew of stories following Ehlers, Connors, and Stastny's comments about culture, inconsistency and desire to play the right way.

Pretty damning commentary by the guys many see as the new core...Scheifele is injured so it makes sense he has not been interviewed but where is Wheeler? Morrissey? Lowry? And - maybe more worrisome - Dubois?

Which one of those guys do you think we should draft

Oh wait we are still wanking about this season.

 

[tbcwpg]

Slew of stories following Ehlers, Connors, and Stastny's comments about culture, inconsistency and desire to play the right way.

Pretty damning commentary by the guys many see as the new core...Scheifele is injured so it makes sense he has not been interviewed but where is Wheeler? Morrissey? Lowry? And - maybe more worrisome - Dubois?

Morrissey has been talking to the media for the past number of games with the odd exception. Wheeler is not requested by the media anymore, I assume the same for Dubois. Ehlers, Connor, Stastny are responding to questions by the media but aren't going out of their way to talk to them. This idea that players should be going out of their way to call out their teammates in the media is pretty strange to me. Like I get the comments from 27/81/25 are very telling and obviously needed but they aren't seeking out Jeff Hamilton or Scott Billeck after games to make them. They're just responding to questions as they come in.

 

[Heldig]

Morrissey and Dubois have done tonnes of interviews this season. Wheeler doesn't get asked for and we'll Lowry is likely not seen as a core piece by media but he was interviewed in practice just yesterday

I am just going by the recent stories that appeared on Sportsnet. I dont see a lot of the post game stuff.