Speculation: Armchair GM Thread

[Top 6 Spaling]

Final prediction time!

Likely gone: Schenn
50/50: ROR, Sissons, McCarron, Novak - I think we move out at least one center
Possible: Saros, March, Del Gaizo, Blankenberg, Smith
Unlikely but not 0%: Stamkos, Josi, Forsberg (if anyone of them request a trade)

I figure everyone else is safe

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Final prediction time!

Likely gone: Schenn
50/50: ROR, Sissons, McCarron, Novak - I think we move out at least one center
Possible: Saros, March, Del Gaizo, Blankenberg, Smith
Unlikely but not 0%: Stamkos, Josi, Forsberg (if anyone of them request a trade)

I figure everyone else is safe

I will charitably give 20% odds on Schenn for something like a 3rd. I'm just trying to imagine how much worse our team would be without all his valuable leadership helping to prop us up! So how could Trotz possibly justify trading him?

Not expecting anybody else to move.

 

[glenngineer]

My gut tells me Marchessault is going to ask out.

 

[101st_fan]

It honestly wouldn’t surprise me to see Evangalista out for a mid round pick. It aligns with how Trotz has handled everything since becoming an active participant in the process two years ago.

 

[Armourboy]

My gut tells me Marchessault is going to ask out.

He is the one wildcard among the NMC guys imo. Problem with him is Trotz probably thinks he's worth a ton and he won't get moved

 

[herzausstein]

It honestly wouldn’t surprise me to see Evangalista out for a mid round pick. It aligns with how Trotz has handled everything since becoming an active participant in the process two years ago.

Ill file this under sad but not unrealistic. Evangelista has followed the Tomasino/Pärssinen path so far. Came in strong, production and usage have slipped, next step is trade

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

It honestly wouldn’t surprise me to see Evangalista out for a mid round pick. It aligns with how Trotz has handled everything since becoming an active participant in the process two years ago.

Yeah, Vange is probably in the "Possible" tier for me. Depressing.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Hopefully we grab Walker Duehr on waivers.

 

[beardawg]

My gut tells me Marchessault is going to ask out.

He does only have a 15 team NTC...combined with his historic attitude and current production, he seems like a good candidate. I'd be actively trying to move him if I'm GMBT

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

He does only have a 15 team NTC...combined with his historic attitude and current production, he seems like a good candidate. I'd be actively trying to move him if I'm GMBT

He is still putting in effort but very much in an "I'm getting mine" sort of way. Totally fine with him moving on.

 

[Scoresberg]

Friedman said in the 32 Thoughts that he's doesn't think any of the "core" guys in Nashville have asked out.

He did say that we have Novak, Sissons, McCarron and Schenn essentially on the block. I say move 'em all.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

He does only have a 15 team NTC...combined with his historic attitude and current production, he seems like a good candidate. I'd be actively trying to move him if I'm GMBT

These partial NTCs aren't that much help. He would still have to waive his NMC to be moved at all. Just if he did that, then his 15-team list would limit his number of potential destinations. I'm not sure teams very often ask a player to waive his NMC without already having a very specific destination in mind already, so the value of the NTC in these contracts is extremely limited.

Anyway, I think the really big limit to us trading Marchessault (or any of our old guys) is actually that Trotz simply won't want to move them. He's going to walk into next season thinking the same thing he did a year ago, that he's aiming to have a playoff team, and he's going to want to keep all of these guys regardless as they are keys to next year's big turn-around.

 

[Armourboy]

These partial NTCs aren't that much help. He would still have to waive his NMC to be moved at all. Just if he did that, then his 15-team list would limit his number of potential destinations. I'm not sure teams very often ask a player to waive his NMC without already having a very specific destination in mind already, so the value of the NTC in these contracts is extremely limited.

Anyway, I think the really big limit to us trading Marchessault (or any of our old guys) is actually that Trotz simply won't want to move them. He's going to walk into next season thinking the same thing he did a year ago, that he's aiming to have a playoff team, and he's going to want to keep all of these guys regardless as they are keys to next year's big turn-around.

Yep I figure we walk in with basically the same roster next season unless someone just asks out. He may move Smith or McCarron if someone gives him enough but I think he probably overvalues every single player and undervalues other teams players which is why we hear so much about him trying to make moves but nothing ever happens.

 

[Scoresberg]

Crazy thing is, this team shouldn't even be all that far from turning it around and pushing for a playoff spot next year. You still have some good players in that group backed up by a strong tandem in goal.

But Trotz ain't the guy to make it happen. He'll sign a couple of veteran UFAs over the summer as he lacks the creativity to do anything else - no trades, no shrewd UFA signings, no offer sheets. Just last week I read an article of how the Blues GM admires what they've done in Washington and wants to do that same in St. Louis. It's just frustrating that Trotz isn't the guy who can do this. He's a rookie-GM.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

These partial NTCs aren't that much help. He would still have to waive his NMC to be moved at all. Just if he did that, then his 15-team list would limit his number of potential destinations. I'm not sure teams very often ask a player to waive his NMC without already having a very specific destination in mind already, so the value of the NTC in these contracts is extremely limited.

Anyway, I think the really big limit to us trading Marchessault (or any of our old guys) is actually that Trotz simply won't want to move them. He's going to walk into next season thinking the same thing he did a year ago, that he's aiming to have a playoff team, and he's going to want to keep all of these guys regardless as they are keys to next year's big turn-around.

If player has partial ntc and also nmc, he can be traded to any team not on ntc. The nmc in that case only prevents him from being waived or exposed in expansion draft (without his approval).

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If player has partial ntc and also nmc, he can be traded to any team not on ntc. The nmc in that case only prevents him from being waived or exposed in expansion draft (without his approval).

I have heard the order of operations is actually the opposite, hence my post.

 

[Kat Predator]

Crazy thing is, this team shouldn't even be all that far from turning it around and pushing for a playoff spot next year. You still have some good players in that group backed up by a strong tandem in goal.

But Trotz ain't the guy to make it happen. He'll sign a couple of veteran UFAs over the summer as he lacks the creativity to do anything else - no trades, no shrewd UFA signings, no offer sheets. Just last week I read an article of how the Blues GM admires what they've done in Washington and wants to do that same in St. Louis. It's just frustrating that Trotz isn't the guy who can do this. He's a rookie-GM.

I don't know about the group of good players comment. We have a bunch of name players, for sure. But all of them are on the wrong side of 30 and several may be in serious decline. Like, I don't think Tampa moved on from its living legend because they thought he had a long shelf life left.

 

[ShagDaddy]

No one will ever convince me that Stamkos, Marchessault, Forsberg Josi, O’Reilly and Skjei all just fell off a cliff in regards to production due to age in the exact same season.

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

The truth is somewhere in the middle, but the reality is 24-27 is the peak for most players. Having a roster where your top 7 scorers are all 30+, including your top 2 D and starting goalie, is a terrible recipe for being competitive. Even if we "turn it around" next year, we're mushy middle.

 

[Kat Predator]

No one will ever convince me that Stamkos, Marchessault, Forsberg Josi, O’Reilly and Skjei all just fell off a cliff in regards to production due to age in the exact same season.

It's also true that 90% of a Hall-of-Famer is likely still head and shoulders better than Average Joe skater. It's just a gamble on how long it takes that 90% to wither away to 50%.

March, Skjei, and Forsberg look like the same guys they were to me, but they're playing a bad system and it shows.

Stamkos had a spurt where he was good, but something happened to him. ROR is still giving it his all, but he was more of a hustle guy than a speed guy, and he looks a half-step slower.

In Josi's case, the continued severe concussions are going to add up here.

 

[herzausstein]

The truth is somewhere in the middle, but the reality is 24-27 is the peak for most players. Having a roster where your top 7 scorers are all 30+, including your top 2 D and starting goalie, is a terrible recipe for being competitive. Even if we "turn it around" next year, we're mushy middle.

Add in a coach that doesnt let anyone under the age of 27 get consistent top 6 minutes and we are being set up for a prolonged rebuild.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I have heard the order of operations is actually the opposite, hence my post.

If that were true, there would be no point to give someone a partial NTC in that situation. The NMC would overrule it. The fact that they do exist like that, partial NTC and NMC, is because they serve different purposes in this situation. I get the confusion, as I used to not understand it either. EF explained it on 32 thoughts a few months back.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If that were true, there would be no point to give someone a partial NTC in that situation. The NMC would overrule it. The fact that they do exist like that, partial NTC and NMC, is because they serve different purposes in this situation. I get the confusion, as I used to not understand it either. EF explained it on 32 thoughts a few months back.

I tried to make that argument too, but was shouted down. The NMC is the dominant clause apparently. You have to agree to be traded first, then if you do, it could be to any team not on your NTC. Except of course, you probably won't agree to be traded to begin with until you actually know the particulars anyway. It's a subtle difference, but it does mean you can't just be traded without your permission.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I tried to make that argument too, but was shouted down. The NMC is the dominant clause apparently. You have to agree to be traded first, then if you do, it could be to any team not on your NTC. Except of course, you probably won't agree to be traded to begin with until you actually know the particulars anyway. It's a subtle difference, but it does mean you can't just be traded without your permission.

I don't believe that is correct. As I understand it, and EF explained it, you can be traded to any team not on your NTC even if you have NMC.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't believe that is correct. As I understand it, and EF explained it, you can be traded to any team not on your NTC even if you have NMC.

Yes, if you give permission.

(Which is actually a hilarious argument because right now you are reading my script from the argument I had earlier! )

I do agree that it's all moot for us anyways, none of our guys are going to be traded.