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Porter Stoutheart
There are multiple theories on how to build a Cup winner. I'll try to be brief in all the ways I have seen and which is the most realistic for the Preds.
Tank, land a generational talent and surround them with complimentary talent. This morning I heard that Crosby came into the league, scored 102 points and didn't make the playoffs his first year. Pittsburgh was an anomaly in that they landed two generational talents and a pretty impressive goalie in three years. Add Letang to that mixture and you have a promising chance of going all the way.
Draft high enough to land solid, if not elite players and then get lucky in later rounds to land elite talents. Tampa is an example. Stamkos and Hedman at 1 and 2. Land Vasi in the mid 1st and then draft Kuch (2nd) and Point (4th). While landing Stamkos and Hedman meant they weren't very good, their GM and staff did a great job of finding great talents in the later rounds. Once again, they were surrounded by complimentary players that produced when it mattered.
Vegas almost got it right in the way they assembled their expansion team in a much different way. Assemble 3 lines of second line talent and a fourth line that was more like a third line. They had a solid d corp and a goalie that played well. This is a great model IMO if you can't find the unicorn as you like to call it. They came up short in the finals and I think that was more due to not having a number 1 defenseman. While their d-corp was solid overall, they didn't have that play driver.
Let's discuss Boston for a moment and figure out this weirdness. No high picks other than Hall, who they acquired. Flip side, they landed a Pasta late in the first, Marchand in the third, Bergeron and Krejki in the second if I'm not mistaken. Their D has a star in McAvoy yet he wasn't a high pick and who would've ever thought Ullmark and Swayman would lead a team to this many wins? Do they go all the way and win? Well, we beat them with a minor league roster at home a few weeks ago so anything is possible. Needless to say, this team is about as balanced as I've seen in a long time plus they have gamebreakers.
For the Preds, I envision us going the route of what Vegas did but we have to do it through the draft, free agency and trades. The problem with going this route is you have to have the salary cap room to have 9 second line forwards, which could be tricky. I think where Poile has failed is he has usually built a roster with 2 second lines, and traditional third and fourth lines. The lack of depth when injuries mount or players don't produce is too much to overcome. Where Poile has failed as a GM in his career is his inability to draft an elite forward in any round. In 40 years, this was his blindspot. Either he didn't know how to evaluate talent or he hired people who he thought could evaluate or he told them to look for certain qualities. Any way you look at it, he built from the net out and while that works in the regular season, elite goalies are great for regular season play but don't always get it done in the playoffs.
So where does that leave us as an organization? We have a top 9 IMO for next year. Between the injured players: Duchene, Forsberg, Johansen and Parssinen coming back, the young players who show promise: Glass, Tomasino, Novak, Evangelista, that's 9 forwards right there. I wasn't high on Sherwood but he has chemistry with Novak and Evangelista so I'd pencil him as the 9th forward. It doesn't mean we can't go out and sign a free agent who takes that spot but that's a good place to start. Sherwood is probably not going to hit second line numbers but a few of these should be over the mean for what second line players produce so I think it's a plus in our favor. You have a fourth line of Sissons, Trenin and someone who can provide a little punch (offensively and physically) and you have a solid top 12. I purposely left Smith out as I think he's too much of an offensive black hole for a team built like this. Once again, maybe you go out and find a free agent who fits this role better.
Your PP1 and PP2 look solid as you have the vets with Parssinen and Josi on unit 1 followed by what we've been seeing as PP1 lately with the kids. To me, that's exciting. You also have the option of finding combos of 5 that work great together.
I have no issue with the way the defense looks going into next season. I think Fabbro has benefitted the most from the extra playing time and forced to find his game. Barrie provides another good PP QB. Josi will continue to Josi stuff and McD is a solid vet that's a winner.
Here's the wild card. What if a team that has high expectations this year flops in the playoffs and that team wants a shake up? If you're Trotz, do you go big and make a blockbuster deal to acquire an elite forward, even if the price is Saros plus whatever else you have to add to that package? Say Toronto calls and says, we want Saros plus and you get Matthews in return(with a long-term deal in place), who flinches? What if Florida called and offered up Barkov? While these types of deals rarely happen, is Toronto going to let Matthews walk for nothing? Doubtful. Remember, Boston moved Joe Thornton for a second pairing defenseman, second line forward and third line forward. Guess what happened, Joe never won a Cup yet a few years later, Boston won a Cup. Weird how they traded a pretty solid center and ended up being better off in the long run for it. I don't know that Matthews is the answer but if I have a chance to acquire that type of forward, I do it every day of the week, even if it means moving my elite goalie. There's always a risk but we've seen where elite goalies have taken us and we've seen where elite goalies have toiled in mediocrity or had playoff failure after playoff failure and yes, I'm talking Henrik and Price. Vasilevsky is the only elite goalie to win since Brodeur won is 2003. Even then, Giguere won the Conn Smythe that year.
I think the team goes route one, see what you have with this current group and if an opportunity presents itself to land an elite center via trade, Trotz makes the move in hopes that it catapults the team over the hump.
I know I said I'd keep it brief but I've been going all day so I apologize for the lengthy post. If you ever want to get together for a drink and discuss in person, I'd be up for it because while we can express our opinions and thoughts on here, I feel some of it is lost in translation. Have a great night.
