Speculation: Armchair GM Thread - Looking to the offseason

[Enoch]

More relevant stats to me:

In the last 215 games, the Predators have a combined goal differential of +5. Every playoff team in the league is better than this currently, on this year alone.

This team has gotten into the playoffs by the skin of its teeth two straight seasons, and will either miss or do the same this year.

Here is some more for you:

2021-2022 playoffs: 0-4; -12 goal differential
2020-2021 playoffs: 2-4; -6 goal differential

Nice stat on the 12th in wins:
- Preds finished 13th in the 56 game season 2020-2021.
- Preds finished 16th 2021-2022
- Preds are currently 18th 2022-2023

 

[Kat Predator]

If we're going to take a step forward, Hynes has to go.

Despite his being sold as a great coach for developing younger talent, it is concerning that he reverted to wanting to stack the roster with more veterans, pushing the younger, more talented players down and out. That these same younger players have had success and actually look noticeably better to the eye test when forced to be played (or playing for another team) isn't a good look either.

 

[triggrman]

More relevant stats to me:

In the last 215 games, the Predators have a combined goal differential of +5. Every playoff team in the league is better than this currently, on this year alone.

This team has gotten into the playoffs by the skin of its teeth two straight seasons, and will either miss or do the same this year.

Here is some more for you:

2021-2022 playoffs: 0-4; -12 goal differential
2020-2021 playoffs: 2-4; -6 goal differential

Nice stat on the 12th in wins:
- Preds finished 13th in the 56 game season 2020-2021.
- Preds finished 16th 2021-2022
- Preds are currently 18th 2022-2023

this team still depends on Vezina caliber goaltending to have a shot at a win.

 

[David Singleton]

Tolvanen didn't get much rope this season based on 85 +/- games of precedence. Sherwood didn't get much rope early in the season either. Once Parssinen came up, Granlund moved to wing, and Glass improved the top 9 was solidified and Tolvanen was relegated to the pressbox or 4th line.

Looking at his line combos at ES last sesaon ... Tolvy/ Kunin / Joey 204 minutes, Granny / Kunin / Tolvy 155 minutes, Dutchy / Granny/ Tovly 103 minutes ... so he got his chances with 2nd line linemates at ES (those three combos are over 50% of his ES TOI). Him / McCarron / Luff was 29 minutes for comparison.

The situation with Tolvanen obviously has some vocal "camps of thought". As is usually the case, valid points are being made by all those camps.

While these specific statistics are (I think) trying to make a convincing argument that Tolvanen had a legitimate chance here (something in which both Hynes and Poile obviously would agree), their beauty is always in the eye of the beholder.

For me personally, the total minutes at ES is very low overall, so I consider the sample size to be lacking. It also seems to promote the idea that time with Kunin was a good thing last season (i.e., productive), and I would personally disagree with that. With Tolvanen, ES time doesn't tell the whole story either given his potential ceiling on the PP (which is not to minimize ES production or lack of).

Hynes is like any coach/human being. He's looking for a particular type of player/effort, etc. to work with what he has in mind. It was obvious that Tolvanen fell out of favor with him. Poile either agreed or trusted Hynes' opinion of the player and couldn't move the player for other assets (not shocking since the Predators' opinions of Tolvanen were likely just as obvious to other teams' scouts). It's a bad look that no one wants to have, of course, but it does happen.

Hynes has had some good results as well as less successful results. Ultimately, the team has to do a cost benefit analysis on whether letting Hynes go with a year left on his contract is a good choice (including risk assessment on losing an external or internal replacement candidate by keeping Hynes).

We'll see.

 

[triggrman]

I didn't advocate for it. It's impossible to advocate for or against something in the past that can't be changed. I said I understood why it was made based on 98 games of output by Tolvanen. Major difference.

What that I said about his performance is in any way wrong? What that I've highlighted in the past about the cap situation in December with the injury situation was wrong?

It was a complex situation where the team chose to waive him based on what he'd done over the span of a season plus rather than keep him up, put Boro on LTIR and then send down a different player. After being a healthy scratch for over two weeks, he put up a hell of a January, then held at a decent pace ... something he failed to do as a Pred. The change of scenery did him good.

ETA
What gets lost in all of this is that there is no guarantee that Tolvanen puts up similar numbers if he stays a Pred. What is a fact is the next forward called up once the blueline injuries resolved themselves was Tommy Novak who is performing in gold ... in fact outperforming Tolvanen.

85 games as a 20-21 year old, playing in a variety of roles. Hynes last year kept talking about how production wasn't the focus on Tolvanen, the 200' game was and bragged often how well his 200' game had developed. You simplify his role, play him to his strength consistently and look what has happened.

 

[Byrddog]

If we're going to take a step forward, Hynes has to go.

Despite his being sold as a great coach for developing younger talent, it is concerning that he reverted to wanting to stack the roster with more veterans, pushing the younger, more talented players down and out. That these same younger players have had success and actually look noticeably better to the eye test when forced to be played (or playing for another team) isn't a good look either.

Double edged sword really. I’m not a Hynes fan at all but always have been for keeping young guys in the AHL for more time. Have the xtra games given them a better chance to stick and produce? Maybe . It has not hurt them for sure . The difference in the game between ahl and nhl is more than any of us can comprehend. None of us have played at that level. Coaches and GM’s have ruined players bringing them up too quickly. Including Hynes and Poile in the early years even Trotz handling of young players was questioned. When you have a 19 or 20 year old that can only get you 10 to 12 goals and a veteran doing the same there is no reason to bring that guy up when he can develop his confidence and game at the lower level. Confidence is a killer to young guys, just as much as a pissy coach that misuses that player. If a team goes into a rebuild with the understanding that the young guys are going to develop as they ply like the Devils, Sabres have done then that’s one thing but in Nashville it has always been bring the kid up they will produce the same as the veteran it does not matter what it does to them long term. The result they get impatient and trade them off. Fiala is a good example. He was brought up too fast had more confidence than his game was ready for. Had high spots and low spots. It’s true I never liked the kid because of his immaturity but he is now having a successful career after growing up.

All this wrist wringing about Tolvanen is just noise he has had one good game since leaving Nashville and that game was against Nashville. Was it stupid what Poile and Hynes did yep but Tolvanen is not a top 6 player , and I do like him. We have always overvalued our own guys. And most just pine away at younger players. Mainly because every year we have veterans who fall short.

 

[triggrman]

All this wrist wringing about Tolvanen is just noise he has had one good game since leaving Nashville and that game was against Nashville. Was it stupid what Poile and Hynes did yep but Tolvanen is not a top 6 player , and I do like him. We have always overvalued our own guys. And most just pine away at younger players. Mainly because every year we have veterans who fall short.

he has 15 goals in 43 games with Seattle, that's more than 1 good game, that's a 29 goal pace.

I don't think he's a great player, and I do think Tomasino and Evangelista are both more talented but we sure could use a few more 29 goal players

 

[Byrddog]

he has 15 goals in 43 games with Seattle, that's more than 1 good game, that's a 29 goal pace.

I don't think he's a great player, and I do think Tomasino and Evangelista are both more talented but we sure could use a few more 29 goal players

Wow I was Misinformed I looked at hockeydb and it had him with 14 total goals . 29 is acceptable in anyone’s eyes. I look at him as the 15 to 20 guy from his time here. I don’t watch Seattle that much and when I do it’s for Yanni Gourde. I just remember the two goal gam against the Preds.

I’m torn on Tomasino there are instances where he looks to be a 40 goal guy than games where he is just unnoticeable. Evangelista looks more dangerous. It would be great if both pan out heck the team needs them too.

 

[ShagDaddy]

Wow I was Misinformed I looked at hockeydb and it had him with 14 total goals . 29 is acceptable in anyone’s eyes. I look at him as the 15 to 20 guy from his time here. I don’t watch Seattle that much and when I do it’s for Yanni Gourde. I just remember the two goal gam against the Preds.

I’m torn on Tomasino there are instances where he looks to be a 40 goal guy than games where he is just unnoticeable. Evangelista looks more dangerous. It would be great if both pan out heck the team needs them too.

Tomasino and Evangelista are both just 21 years old and they both look pretty solid I think they’ll both be top 6 forwards for the Predators for many years.

 

[Scoresberg]

Tomasino and Evangelista are both just 21 years old and they both look pretty solid I think they’ll both be top 6 forwards for the Predators for many years.

I'm higher on Evangelista than on Tomasino. I think Tomasino has the tools to become an efficient top-six winger but so far I'm not really seeing it. He's still young, though.

Evangelista on the other hand. That guy is goo-od. He has the smarts, the hands and the vision to make it happen shift after shift. Give him a couple years to build some muscle into that frame and he's going to cause some trouble sooner than later.

 

[herzausstein]

If we learned anything from fiala trade, we need to let these kids have time to develop, grow, and realize their potential before we give up on them.

Traded at 22. Had a good season at 23 (69 pt pace), slight step back at 24 (65 pt pace), ppg+ at 25 and 26.

 

[Scoresberg]

If we learned anything from fiala trade, we need to let these kids have time to develop, grow, and realize their potential before we give up on them.

Traded at 22. Had a good season at 23 (69 pt pace), slight step back at 24 (65 pt pace), ppg+ at 25 and 26.

By no means am I advocating to trade these guys. Just calling it like I see it, that's all.

 

[herzausstein]

By no means am I advocating to trade these guys. Just calling it like I see it, that's all.

I never saw fiala being a PPG player myself i saw the logic behind the trade.

 

[jumb0]

I'm higher on Evangelista than on Tomasino. I think Tomasino has the tools to become an efficient top-six winger but so far I'm not really seeing it. He's still young, though.

Evangelista on the other hand. That guy is goo-od. He has the smarts, the hands and the vision to make it happen shift after shift. Give him a couple years to build some muscle into that frame and he's going to cause some trouble sooner than later.

Phil is going to be good to very good.
Luke is going to be great.

 

[Kat Predator]

If we learned anything from fiala trade, we need to let these kids have time to develop, grow, and realize their potential before we give up on them.

Traded at 22. Had a good season at 23 (69 pt pace), slight step back at 24 (65 pt pace), ppg+ at 25 and 26.

What's not to like about developing them for 3 years then "try them everywhere" and then throwing them away at 23?

 

[Olderfan]

Tomasino/Evangelista
Both need muscle mass, adult bodies. Normal function of youth.
Tomasino exhibits either nerves or bad hands affecting his obvious skills. Needs work but at the NHL level. Needs to hit the weights.
Evangelista needs weight work because the way he plays he’s going to get hit often and hard. Needs ability to hit back.
Both are still promising prospects only. Promise not yet fulfilled but looking good.
Give them coaching help and time. Likely won’t be next year.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I mean both Tomasino and Evangelista have been playing at 55 point paces this year. Even if that’s what they top out at that is still a solid top six player. I think they both have another level they can reach which is exciting though. I agree that Evangelista definitely seems to have that “it” factor to him which suggests he could be a star. Tomasino maybe has less of that but he may just be less flashy overall.

 

[101st_fan]

85 games as a 20-21 year old, playing in a variety of roles. Hynes last year kept talking about how production wasn't the focus on Tolvanen, the 200' game was and bragged often how well his 200' game had developed. You simplify his role, play him to his strength consistently and look what has happened.

Put Novak and Parssinen in and see what happened with the same coach … but that does t fit the everything is Hynes’ fault and he just ruins players narrative. When Tolavanen played hundreds of minutes with the 2nd line last season how well did he produce? When he was fed PP2 minutes, how well did he perform? Everyone harps on the “variety of roles “ but never on the fact the variety followed not performing in the primary role he was given.

 

[101st_fan]

If we learned anything from fiala trade, we need to let these kids have time to develop, grow, and realize their potential before we give up on them.

Traded at 22. Had a good season at 23 (69 pt pace), slight step back at 24 (65 pt pace), ppg+ at 25 and 26.

So just hanging on to Fiala beyond the Lavy era would have resulted in him becoming a point per game plate for the Preds?

The Devils really should have held onto Sully and the Habs failed with Vokoun. Oh, we benefited so that doesn’t count.

 

[AintLifeGrand]

Put Novak and Parssinen in and see what happened with the same coach … but that does t fit the everything is Hynes’ fault and he just ruins players narrative. When Tolavanen played hundreds of minutes with the 2nd line last season how well did he produce? When he was fed PP2 minutes, how well did he perform? Everyone harps on the “variety of roles “ but never on the fact the variety followed not performing in the primary role he was given.

Bruh Hynes wouldn't even play Tolvanen from his preferred zone on the PP.... classic Asset Mismgmt .

 

[triggrman]

Put Novak and Parssinen in and see what happened with the same coach … but that does t fit the everything is Hynes’ fault and he just ruins players narrative. When Tolavanen played hundreds of minutes with the 2nd line last season how well did he produce? When he was fed PP2 minutes, how well did he perform? Everyone harps on the “variety of roles “ but never on the fact the variety followed not performing in the primary role he was given.

Nah man, you're right, could never be Hynes fault, he handled everything perfect. We're talking about how he handled a young winger and you compare it to two young centers. As I recall, when Tolvanen was first called up, he looked good to. But nah, Hynes is perfect and handled it perfect.

There, it seems that's the only narrative you'll ever except, so there you go, man, it's all there for you and Hynes.

 

[David Singleton]

... Everyone harps on the “variety of roles “ but never on the fact the variety followed not performing in the primary role he was given.

You've mentioned several things, so I'm not 100% sure specifically which role you are referring to as his "primary role". I apologize for not fully following that line of thought.

Having said that, did that "primary role" best suit his skills as they were at that time, or was that role more what the coaches needed most from him even if his skills weren't necessarily ready for certain aspects of what the coaches' wanted?

To me, there is no right or wrong answer here. It just is what it is. Decisions were made by all involved. I am working under the assumption that all parties were making those decisions (personnel, coaching, playing, etc.) they thought would have the best outcome for the team.

Clearly, Tolvanen has some ability and value at the NHL level if he's playing at a 29 goal pace (thanks @triggrman). It's unfortunate he was unable to find a suitable role here. It's unfortunate that the Predators couldn't salvage some asset from his departure as well. It's good for him that he was able to get off to a good start on his new opportunity.

Now, the Predators have to look towards next year, which they've obviously already starting doing.
They are, and will be for some time, dealing the results of all those decisions (well beyond the Tolvanen situation) over this past year. I would assume, in assessing Hynes, that there will be some discussions on why it didn't work out here specifically as it pertains to Tolvanen. On the other hand, maybe not. I hope so as a fan just because there is surely something that can be learned from looking at the situation both in terms of what happened here and why he is more successful in Seattle.

Truth be told, I'm more interested in what has been learned about that situation and other situations. The results, in terms of wins, losses, and other statistics, are readily visible to all. And there are certainly questions that come from those statistics- some personnel/player and some coaching.

If they retain Hynes, why- and what are the expectations for next year? If they don't, why- and what are the expectations for next year?

(Not that we will ever get the full answers to those questions, of course.)

 

[nine_inch_fang]

I still really don't care about not having Tolvanen on the roster and it's clear to see that he is settling back into his much more unproductive normal. Rarely does he find the scoresheet in a meaningful way outside of games that his team runs away with scoring. I'd much rather have Parssinen and Novak.

My only issue with any of it is that Poile thought he'd pass through waivers but he didn't and they got nothing for him.

 

[PredsV82]

P

I still really don't care about not having Tolvanen on the roster and it's clear to see that he is settling back into his much more unproductive normal. Rarely does he find the scoresheet in a meaningful way outside of games that his team runs away with scoring. I'd much rather have Parssinen and Novak.

My only issue with any of it is that Poile thought he'd pass through waivers but he didn't and they got nothing for him.

Yeah given how things went I wonder what we could have got for him at the deadline?

Edit.. I hadnt looked but it's almost like he used up all his mojo to give Nashville the finger. Hes been 0G 0A since that game

 

[herzausstein]

So just hanging on to Fiala beyond the Lavy era would have resulted in him becoming a point per game plate for the Preds?

The Devils really should have held onto Sully and the Habs failed with Vokoun. Oh, we benefited so that doesn’t count.

It was a general statement on how some people seemingly give up on prospects when they're still relatively young.

Not sure what dragon you are trying to slay here