Are you comfortable with a claim of OV being the GOAT goalscorer?

[Big Phil]

With the greatest goal scorer there are always a couple of things at play. For starters you have to separate them in a couple of categories. There is the greatest "pure" goal scorer of all-time and then the greatest goal scorer. Before Ovechkin I might have picked Bossy as the greatest "pure" goal scorer, but not greatest overall. Ovechkin now is the best pure goal scorer of all-time I think because he could score in so many ways. In the recent years he has gotten a lot more of the one-timer goals on the wing than bursting down the left wing and firing a shot like he did in the past, but there is no doubt over his career he was a pretty diverse goal scorer. Only Mario perhaps scored goals in his career better in every which way (slap, wrist, snap shots, dekes, on the rush, tap ins, etc).

But is he the best? When you look at Wayne and Mario they scored a large number of goals and yet the best aspect of their game wasn't even goal scoring. Gretzky for sure was an even better playmaker, Mario the gap is pretty narrow, but no doubt he was still an all-time great playmaker. So when you got a guy like Gretzky scoring 92, 87, 73 and 71 goals and yet leading the NHL in assists by huge margins 16 times, then it is hard to not see that as more impressive than Ovechkin, who went 5 straight seasons without hitting 30 assists, and may not have even hit 20 this year. So what I am saying is that I think Gretzky and Mario could have scored more if they focused on it, while Ovechkin has spent his entire career focused on scoring goals.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

VsX rampantly gives false impressions by highlighting weak competition in equal or greater measure relative to high performance.

Peak seasons are inherently a small sample size. Needlessly making it way smaller - as VsX does - is just begging for anomalous data and arbitrary results.

What your chart shows is that you think if Brett Hull was born earlier (and had his peak season sooner), then you would hold Wayne Gretzky is far lesser esteem. That's nonsensical.

I never recommend people use VsX to compare single seasons. It's clearly unsuited to that task. Most people look at best 5- to 10-year periods, when a lot of the single-season variation that you speak of gets washed out.

 

[seventieslord]

With the greatest goal scorer there are always a couple of things at play. For starters you have to separate them in a couple of categories. There is the greatest "pure" goal scorer of all-time and then the greatest goal scorer. Before Ovechkin I might have picked Bossy as the greatest "pure" goal scorer, but not greatest overall. Ovechkin now is the best pure goal scorer of all-time I think because he could score in so many ways. In the recent years he has gotten a lot more of the one-timer goals on the wing than bursting down the left wing and firing a shot like he did in the past, but there is no doubt over his career he was a pretty diverse goal scorer. Only Mario perhaps scored goals in his career better in every which way (slap, wrist, snap shots, dekes, on the rush, tap ins, etc).

But is he the best? When you look at Wayne and Mario they scored a large number of goals and yet the best aspect of their game wasn't even goal scoring. Gretzky for sure was an even better playmaker, Mario the gap is pretty narrow, but no doubt he was still an all-time great playmaker. So when you got a guy like Gretzky scoring 92, 87, 73 and 71 goals and yet leading the NHL in assists by huge margins 16 times, then it is hard to not see that as more impressive than Ovechkin, who went 5 straight seasons without hitting 30 assists, and may not have even hit 20 this year. So what I am saying is that I think Gretzky and Mario could have scored more if they focused on it, while Ovechkin has spent his entire career focused on scoring goals.

...ok Phil, we get it.

(read the notice at the top of your screen for the love of god)

 

[sr edler]

That's not a double post, that's a triple post.

 

[Vilica]

This post has gone through a bunch of variations, I thought I had a good format but the tables turned out to be way too wide, so I had to re-write it to try and fit it better. I also apologize for the length, and the number of tables in it. It initially started off from daver asking for a comparison of Brett Hull's 86 goal season to Ovechkin's 65 goal season, which once you have the ancillary aspects of the model nailed down, is fairly easy to do.

Year	GP	GF	GF/G	PGP	G	A	Pts	G%	P%	LAGF	LAGF/G	%LA
90-91	80	310	3.875	78	86	45	131	0.277	0.423	276	3.45	1.123

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For a glossary - GP is number of games in that season, GF is the number of goals that player's team scored, GF/G is per game, PGP is the number of games that player played in, G/A/Pts are his counting stats, G% is the percentage of goals that player scored of his team's total, P% is the percentage of points that player accrued on goals his team scored, LAGF is league average goals for that season, LAGF/G is per game, and %LA is the percentage above or below league average the team scored that season.

Once you have your inputs, to place that Hull season in 07-08, 08-09, or 09-10 is just a matter of editing LAGF, like so.

Year	GP	LAGF	LAGF/G	New GF	NGF/G	G	A	Pts
07-08	82	223	2.720	250.471	3.055	69.5	36.4	105.8
08-09	82	234	2.854	262.826	3.205	72.9	38.2	111.1
09-10	82	227	2.768	254.964	3.109	70.7	37.0	107.7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Further glossary - New GF is generated by multiplying LAGF by %LA. Hull's new point total is generated by taking that New GF number, and applying (in Hull's case) 27.7% of goals and 42.3% of points.

Now you can take these numbers in two different ways - the first being to try to assess whether or not 70+36=106 would be adjudged to be more valuable than 65+47=112 by MVP voters in 07-08, or the second to accept that Hull's goal scoring season is marginally more impressive than Ovechkin's, but again quite closer than the raw 86-65 total.

You don't need to stick to single seasons either, you could input multiple years and output multiple years, for example if you wanted to compare Wayne Gretzky's 3 year peak to Ovechkin's 3 year peak.

Input:

Year	GP	GF	GF/G	PGP	G	A	Pts	G%	P%	LAGF	LAGF/G	%LA
81-82	80	417	5.213	80	92	120	212	0.221	0.508	321	4.013	1.299
82-83	80	424	5.3	80	71	125	196	0.167	0.462	309	3.863	1.372
83-84	80	446	5.575	74	87	118	205	0.195	0.460	316	3.95	1.411

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Output:

Year	GP	LAGF	LAGF/G	New GF	NGF/G	G	A	Pts
07-08	82	223	2.720	289.692	3.533	63.9	83.4	147.3
08-09	82	234	2.854	321.087	3.916	53.8	94.7	148.4
09-10	82	227	2.768	320.386	3.907	62.5	84.8	147.3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Quite ridiculous numbers, but then Wayne was a ridiculous player. Even though I'm already tackling outlier seasons, I feel like my model breaks down when looking at the most outlier of outlier seasons. But you still can throw a whole bunch of peak forward seasons as input - Ovechkin 07-08 as your benchmark, Howie Morenz 27-28, Maurice Richard 44-45, Gordie Howe 52-53, Bobby Hull 65-66, Phil Esposito 70-71, Mike Bossy 81-82, and Mario Lemieux 88-89, and see what they would look like in 07-08.

Input:

	GP	GF	GF/G	PGP	G	A	Pts	G%	P%	LAGF	LAGF/G	%LA
07-08	82	238	2.902	82	65	47	112	0.273	0.471	223	2.720	1.067
27-28	44	116	2.636	43	33	18	51	0.284	0.440	84	1.909	1.381
44-45	50	228	4.560	50	50	23	73	0.219	0.320	184	3.680	1.239
52-53	70	222	3.171	70	49	46	95	0.221	0.428	168	2.400	1.321
65-66	70	240	3.429	65	54	43	97	0.225	0.404	213	3.043	1.127
70-71	78	399	5.115	78	76	76	152	0.190	0.381	244	3.128	1.635
81-82	80	385	4.813	80	64	83	147	0.166	0.382	321	4.013	1.199
88-89	80	347	4.338	76	85	114	199	0.245	0.573	299	3.738	1.161

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The outputs of Morenz and Esposito are the ones that I'd consider 'off', because even though Morenz's percentages aren't out of line with the others, the fact remains that Montreal's top 3 forwards that year accounted for ~70% of Montreal's goals, whereas by M. Richard's year, his line with Lach/Blake accounted for only 46%. In Esposito's case, the fact that Boston was 63.5% above league average that year is just an absurd number.

Output:

Year	GP	LAGF	LAGF/G	New GF	NGF/G	G	A	Pts
07-08	82	223	2.720	238.000	2.902	65.0	47.0	112.0
27-28	82	223	2.720	307.952	3.756	87.6	47.8	135.4
44-45	82	223	2.720	276.326	3.370	60.6	27.9	88.5
52-53	82	223	2.720	294.679	3.594	65.0	61.1	126.1
65-66	82	223	2.720	251.268	3.064	56.5	45.0	101.6
70-71	82	223	2.720	364.660	4.447	69.5	69.5	138.9
81-82	82	223	2.720	267.461	3.262	44.5	57.7	102.1
88-89	82	223	2.720	258.799	3.156	63.4	85.0	148.4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ignoring Morenz and Esposito, Hull's 69.5 goal total still the highest of all the seasons. I'd also like to point out the repeatability of G%/P% - I've shown 10 different peak seasons from 10 different players over almost the entirety of NHL history, in a variety of scoring environments, and yet goal scoring clusters between 20-25% in almost all of them, and point totals from 38-48%.

Finally, despite the fact that I've converted every season here into 07-08 doesn't mean that is the only option. We could in fact take Ovechkin's year and put it into every other year we've chosen to convert his peak year into theirs.

Year	GP	LAGF	LAGF/G	New GF	NGF/G	G	A	Pts
07-08	82	223	2.720	238.000	2.902	65.0	47.0	112.0
27-28	44	84	1.909	89.650	2.038	24.5	17.7	42.2
44-45	50	184	3.680	196.377	3.928	53.6	38.8	92.4
52-53	70	168	2.400	179.300	2.561	49.0	35.4	84.4
65-66	70	213	3.043	227.327	3.248	62.1	44.9	107.0
70-71	78	244	3.128	260.413	3.339	71.1	51.4	122.5
81-82	80	321	4.013	342.592	4.282	93.6	67.7	161.2
88-89	80	299	3.738	319.112	3.989	87.2	63.0	150.2
90-91	80	276	3.450	294.565	3.682	80.4	58.2	138.6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[filinski77]

That you can add seasons by most notably Hull, Richard and Howe to this list adds to the narrative that peak goalscoring ability (IMO, the primary metric for measuring the best/greatest) is not really close for OV. Best peak of his era? Stamkos has a place right with him.

If he had one season that was among the very best all-time, then he has a much better case for the claim if one wants to pigeonhole everyone into the "goalscorer" topic.

Stamkos does not have a place right there with him, not only does Ovechkin have the higher goal total between the 2 (by 5), but he also has three seasons with better leads over 2nd place. Stamkos' 60 goal season is probably the easy 2nd though.

When comparing the O6 superstars it's a lot harder because the game after expansion has been completely turned on its head, making % leads a lot harder to take at face value.

Here are Howe/Richard/Hull Sr's rocket seasons:

Season Start	Season End	Goal Leader	Goals	2nd Goals	% over 2nd
1965	1966	Hull	54	32	69%
1944	1945	Richard	50	32	56%
1952	1953	Howe	49	32	53%
1951	1952	Howe	47	31	52%
1961	1962	Hull	50	33	52%
1946	1947	Richard	45	30	50%
1966	1967	Hull	52	35	49%
1956	1957	Howe	44	33	33%
1949	1950	Richard	43	35	23%
1968	1969	Hull	58	49	18%
1953	1954	Richard	37	33	12%
1963	1964	Hull	43	39	10%
1967	1968	Hull	44	40	10%
1962	1963	Howe	38	37	3%
1950	1951	Howe	43	42	2%
1954	1955	Richard	38	38	0%
1959	1960	Hull	39	39	0%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Hull has 3 seasons with a bigger % of 2nd than Ovi's top 4 (Ovi sill with 2 more rockets)

Howe has 3 seasons better than Ovis' top like 6 finishes (Ovi still has 4 more rockets)

Richard has 2 seasons better than Ovis best, Richards 3rd best is tied with Ovi's 2nd best, then Ovi has the next 2 best (and 4 more rockets).

Ovi did this all in the most competitive and hard to score (other than DPE) era in league history. I just don't see much of an argument for any of those 3 to be above Ovi for goalscoring.

 

[Stephen]

It's definitely debatable. But think of it this way, Gretzky scored in a period when there were more goals scored overall. His percentage of all the goals scored during his career should be weighed against Ovi's percentage of all the goals scored during his career. Do you agree that this is a fair way to evaluate the players respective goal scoring?

When I think about goalies Gretzky torched for his goals during the early part of his career, there's a certain percentage of goals that Wayne could score that probably wouldn't have been available to Ovechkin in a typical 2000s/2010s game.

 

[YippieKaey]

When I think about goalies Gretzky torched for his goals during the early part of his career, there's a certain percentage of goals that Wayne could score that probably wouldn't have been available to Ovechkin in a typical 2000s/2010s game.

I agree

 

[daver]

Ovi did this all in the most competitive and hard to score (other than DPE) era in league history.

Most competitive era? What do you mean? That the Rocket winners moving forward will always be better than Rocket winners from the past?

 

[daver]

Stamkos does not have a place right there with him, not only does Ovechkin have the higher goal total between the 2 (by 5), but he also has three seasons with better leads over 2nd place. Stamkos' 60 goal season is probably the easy 2nd though.

Their peak seasons are very close in terms of how they compared to the other Top Ten goalscorers (a much better measure than looking just at 2nd place) which takes into consideration that scoring had decreased between 07/08 and 11/12.

 

[daver]

When comparing the O6 superstars it's a lot harder because the game after expansion has been completely turned on its head, making % leads a lot harder to take at face value.

Why? The % leads from both your graphs are very similar. There isn't anything that appears to be an anomaly in need of explanation.

You seem biased towards regarding OV's goalscoring as being superior simply because he plays in the current era.

 

[Big Phil]

That's not a double post, that's a triple post.

Computer is wonky all of the sudden, freezing a bit here and there. I didn't realize until today I actually posted it three times. Thought it was freezing and I only managed to do it once.

...ok Phil, we get it.

(read the notice at the top of your screen for the love of god)

You don't think it makes sense though? There isn't a difference between pure goal scorer and greatest goal scorer in your mind? For example, there was that brief time in Ovechkin's career where he had a lull in his goal scoring. At this time Stamkos stepped up and became the NHL's best goal scorer. He got a 60 goal season with 37 assists. A great season no doubt, but I remember thinking what always makes the goal scoring seem even more impressive to me is when the player doesn't even need to focus on that solely to score, but rather has it as part of his arsenal. Maybe that's why I never thought much of Peter Bondra's exploits. 34 goals and 9 assists or 52 and 26 assists in the years he led the league. He was a one-trick pony that way. Ovechkin is not a one-trick pony overall, but offensively he can be. Obviously he has the physical aspect and the bull in a china shop type of play, but it impresses me more when a high goal scoring season is combined with a high assist season too.

 

[seventieslord]

Computer is wonky all of the sudden, freezing a bit here and there. I didn't realize until today I actually posted it three times. Thought it was freezing and I only managed to do it once.



You don't think it makes sense though? There isn't a difference between pure goal scorer and greatest goal scorer in your mind? For example, there was that brief time in Ovechkin's career where he had a lull in his goal scoring. At this time Stamkos stepped up and became the NHL's best goal scorer. He got a 60 goal season with 37 assists. A great season no doubt, but I remember thinking what always makes the goal scoring seem even more impressive to me is when the player doesn't even need to focus on that solely to score, but rather has it as part of his arsenal. Maybe that's why I never thought much of Peter Bondra's exploits. 34 goals and 9 assists or 52 and 26 assists in the years he led the league. He was a one-trick pony that way. Ovechkin is not a one-trick pony overall, but offensively he can be. Obviously he has the physical aspect and the bull in a china shop type of play, but it impresses me more when a high goal scoring season is combined with a high assist season too.

I'm not disagreeing with the content of your post in the least, I was only commenting on the triple post! (symptomatic of not reading the big all-caps message at the top of the screen!)

 

[Jumptheshark]

Strictly from a raw numbers/goalscoring finishes standpoint, he is making a case.

I think the ability of Wayne and Mario, and Howe to a lesser degree, all of whom are in the GOAT goalscorer conversation, to be both dominant goalscorers and playmakers at the same time puts a big asterix around any claim for OV being the greatest.

Still take gre6z

 

[The Wizard of Oz]

I’m most impressed with Ovie’s Howe-esque durability more than anything else. A less physical era helps for sure.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I’m most impressed with Ovie’s Howe-esque durability more than anything else. A less physical era helps for sure.

I think the exact opposite is true.

Ovechkin is one of the most durable players of all time. A highly physical league would help him relative to other players because he can stand up to it better than pretty much anyone.

He also has amazing awareness and is one of the best counter hitters in the game. Guys think they are lining him up for a big hit and they end up on their arses.

The league deliberately toned Ovechkin's physicality down by suspending him and fining him for roughing - incidents that really weren't even all that bad. It actually deflated his game a good bit.

 

[sr edler]

I think the exact opposite is true.

Ovechkin is one of the most durable players of all time. A highly physical league would help him relative to other players because he can stand up to it better than pretty much anyone.

He also has amazing awareness and is one of the best counter hitters in the game. Guys think they are lining him up for a big hit and they end up on their arses.

The league deliberately toned Ovechkin's physicality down by suspending him and fining him for roughing - incidents that really weren't even all that bad. It actually deflated his game a good bit.

He also invented sliced bread.

Ovechkin's boarding on Brian Campbell was pretty ugly and resulted in a broken collar bone and a fractured rib. He should be glad he only got 2 games.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Here is a lot of data. I tried to crunch every meaningful stat for goalscorers there could possibly be. If anyone wants one added, let me know. It is possible that there are errors, so if you find any, I am happy to correct them.

Greatest Goal Scorers of all time
*As of 3/26/20	Ovie	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career Total Goals	706	741	690	894	573	717	610	801	544
Career Tot. Goals Rank	8	4	11	1	22	6	18	2	31
Career Tot. Adjusted (adj.) Goals	798	738	616	758	461	671	644	925	653
Career Tot. Adj goals Rank	3	6	17	4	63	9	12	1	10
Goal Scoring Titles	9	3	3	5	2	6	7	5	5
Peak Season goals	65	86	85	92	69	76	54	49	50
Peak adjusted Season	72	78	71	69	58	65	57	65	54
Peak Adjusted Season Rank (All time)	2	1	3	6	45	4	54	13	84
Peak Ssn relative to next best / era^^	8.30%	-6.5%	-8%	7%	-25%	10%	8%	4%	2%
Same as above, adjusted^^	5.9%	10.0%	-9.0%	-12%	-26%	12.0%	6.6%	9.0%	-17%
Lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17.0%	-15%	6.8%	21.0%	19.0%	-53%	-3.3%	-36%	24.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	40.0%	2.8%	11.0%	41.0%	6.0%	-6.0%	25.0%	-11%	53.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 15 yrs	53.0%	10.0%	4.6%	30.0%	-23%	45.0%	30.0%	9.0%	40.0%
Lead over 10, first 5 seasons	59.0%	17.0%	53.0%	80.0%	56.0%	-6.0%	22.7%	15.0%	77.0%
Lead over 10, first 10 seasons	60.0%	41.0%	32.0%	79.0%	79.0%	59.0%	72.0%	107%	108%
Lead over 10, first 15 seasons	86.0%	44.0%	35.0%	70.0%	31.0%	85.0%	105%	149%	166%
*As of 3/26/20	Ovie*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career GPG	0.61	0.58	0.75	0.6	0.76	0.56	0.57	0.45	0.56
Career Adj GPG	0.692	0.582	0.673	0.510	0.613	0.523	0.606	0.523	0.668
All time rank Adjusted GPG***	1	6	2	9	4	7	5	7	3
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17%	-16%	11%	18%	-5%	-50%	-19%	-34%	22%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	13%	-19%	8%	0%	-12%	-15%	17%	-13%	41%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 15 years	15%	-27%	21%	16%	-4%	-13%	4%	-9%	16%
**GPG lead over 10, first 5 yrs	45%	36%	44%	60%	44%	0%	19%	9%	50%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 10 yrs	50%	45%	49%	52%	38%	41%	47%	55%	68%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 15 yrs	52%	28%	64%	34%	41%	44%	61%	60%	87%
**Times Led NHL in GPG	9	3	6	3	1	5	8	3	5
50 goal seasons	8	5	6	9	9	5	5	0	1
# of NHL 50 goal ssns in their 1st 15 yrs	22	78	90	110	68^	30	10	1	1
*As of 3/26/20	Ovie*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
% of 50 goal seasons / 1st 15	36%	6.40%	6.70%	8%	13%	16.7%	50%	0%	100%
Adjusted 50 goal seasons	11	5	5	5	2	5	5	5	7
Playoff Goals	65	103	76	122	85	61	62	68	82
Playoff GPG	0.51	0.51	0.71	0.59	0.66	0.47	0.52	0.43	0.62
Playoff Adj. Goals	68.5	98.8	68	98.71	64.75	53.8	55.8	65.2	71.4
Playoff Adjusted GPG	0.535	0.489	0.636	0.475	0.502	0.414	0.469	0.415	0.541
Playoff Adj. GPG Rank***	3	5	1	6	4	9	7	8	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

**Minimum ~ half the games played

***Among the players on this list

^ 10 seasons only

^^ERA definition for each player (this varies depending on when scoring changed significantly)

^^Ovechkin: 2005-present

^^Bobby Hull: Just included pre-1967 expansion. Expansion would include Esposito's 76 goal season, but I don't think that was humanly possible pre-expansion

^^Esposito: I counted '67 to 79-80. Includes expansion but not the 1980s GPG explosion

^^Howe: For raw totals, didn't include Richard's '44-45 because NHL scoring differed too much

^^Richard: For adjusted and league wide, the sample includes Howe's '52.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[blogofmike]

Here is a lot of data. I tried to crunch every meaningful stat for goalscorers there could possibly be. If anyone wants one added, let me know. It is possible that there are errors, so if you find any, I am happy to correct them.

Greatest Goal Scorers of all time
*As of 3/26/20	Ovie	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career Total Goals	706	741	690	894	573	717	610	801	544
Career Tot. Goals Rank	8	4	11	1	22	6	18	2	31
Career Tot. Adjusted (adj.) Goals	798	738	616	758	461	671	644	925	653
Career Tot. Adj goals Rank	3	6	17	4	63	9	12	1	10
Goal Scoring Titles	9	3	3	5	2	6	7	5	5
Peak Season goals	65	86	85	92	69	76	54	49	50
Peak adjusted Season	72	78	71	69	58	65	57	65	54
Peak Adjusted Season Rank (All time)	2	1	3	6	45	4	54	13	84
Peak Ssn relative to next best / era^^	8.30%	-6.5%	-8%	7%	-25%	10%	8%	4%	2%
Same as above, adjusted^^	5.9%	10.0%	-9.0%	-12%	-26%	12.0%	6.6%	9.0%	-17%
Lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17.0%	-15%	6.8%	21.0%	19.0%	-53%	-3.3%	-36%	24.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	40.0%	2.8%	11.0%	41.0%	6.0%	-6.0%	25.0%	-11%	53.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 15 yrs	53.0%	10.0%	4.6%	30.0%	-23%	45.0%	30.0%	9.0%	40.0%
Lead over 10, first 5 seasons	59.0%	17.0%	53.0%	80.0%	56.0%	-6.0%	22.7%	15.0%	77.0%
Lead over 10, first 10 seasons	60.0%	41.0%	32.0%	79.0%	79.0%	59.0%	72.0%	107%	108%
Lead over 10, first 15 seasons	86.0%	44.0%	35.0%	70.0%	31.0%	85.0%	105%	149%	166%
*As of 3/26/20	Ovie*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
Career GPG	0.61	0.58	0.75	0.6	0.76	0.56	0.57	0.45	0.56
Career Adj GPG	0.692	0.582	0.673	0.510	0.613	0.523	0.606	0.523	0.668
All time rank Adjusted GPG***	1	6	2	9	4	7	5	7	3
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs	17%	-16%	11%	18%	-5%	-50%	-19%	-34%	22%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs	13%	-19%	8%	0%	-12%	-15%	17%	-13%	41%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 15 years	15%	-27%	21%	16%	-4%	-13%	4%	-9%	16%
**GPG lead over 10, first 5 yrs	45%	36%	44%	60%	44%	0%	19%	9%	50%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 10 yrs	50%	45%	49%	52%	38%	41%	47%	55%	68%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 15 yrs	52%	28%	64%	34%	41%	44%	61%	60%	87%
**Times Led NHL in GPG	9	3	6	3	1	5	8	3	5
50 goal seasons	8	5	6	9	9	5	5	0	1
# of NHL 50 goal ssns in their 1st 15 yrs	22	78	90	110	68^	30	10	1	1
*As of 3/26/20	Ovie*	Brett	Mario	Gretz	Bossy	Espo	Bobby	Howe	Richard
% of 50 goal seasons / 1st 15	36%	6.40%	6.70%	8%	13%	16.7%	50%	0%	100%
Adjusted 50 goal seasons	11	5	5	5	2	5	5	5	7
Playoff Goals	65	103	76	122	85	61	62	68	82
Playoff GPG	0.51	0.51	0.71	0.59	0.66	0.47	0.52	0.43	0.62
Playoff Adj. Goals	68.5	98.8	68	98.71	64.75	53.8	55.8	65.2	71.4
Playoff Adjusted GPG	0.535	0.489	0.636	0.475	0.502	0.414	0.469	0.415	0.541
Playoff Adj. GPG Rank***	3	5	1	6	4	9	7	8	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

**Minimum ~ half the games played

***Among the players on this list

^ 10 seasons only

^^ERA definition for each player (this varies depending on when scoring changed significantly)

^^Ovechkin: 2005-present

^^Bobby Hull: Just included pre-1967 expansion. Expansion would include Esposito's 76 goal season, but I don't think that was humanly possible pre-expansion

^^Esposito: I counted '67 to 79-80. Includes expansion but not the 1980s GPG explosion

^^Howe: For raw totals, didn't include Richard's '44-45 because NHL scoring differed too much

^^Richard: For adjusted and league wide, the sample includes Howe's '52.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I don't suppose you'd be able to factor in Even Strength goal scoring?

 

[ImporterExporter]

He also invented sliced bread.

Ovechkin's boarding on Brian Campbell was pretty ugly and resulted in a broken collar bone and a fractured rib. He should be glad he only got 2 games.

He's been suspended, what 3 times for dirty crap?

How many more games and thousands upon thousands of shots will it take OV to pass 99? Of course a few people don't think efficiency matters at it pertains to scoring goals.

There is no metric that gets OV to the GOAT when you factor in volume vs quality and high % of goals and points scored on the PP relative to other superstars.

 

[wetcoast]

He's been suspended, what 3 times for dirty crap?

How many more games and thousands upon thousands of shots will it take OV to pass 99? Of course a few people don't think efficiency matters at it pertains to scoring goals.

There is no metric that gets OV to the GOAT when you factor in volume vs quality and high % of goals and points scored on the PP relative to other superstars.

That's all fine and dandy but then I expect you to measure Mario with the same metric as a player then.

Even though Ovi does rely on the PP a lot, part of it is his coaches useage or do you expect him to say "no coach put someone else in so ImporterExporter thinks better of me"?

I don't mean this as a mean shot but players are put into roles by their coaches and often time the players are criticized for something outside of their control.

Even if we only look at ESG Ovechkin fairs pretty well here in his career.

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

Mario by contrast relied more or less on the % for his goals and points on the PP.

 

[Vilica]

How many more games and thousands upon thousands of shots will it take OV to pass 99? Of course a few people don't think efficiency matters at it pertains to scoring goals.

Depending on what his shooting percentage is on the back half of his career, most likely anywhere between 1250 and 1800 shots. Ovechkin's last 2 years actually show the limitations of trying to establish outer bounds for player shooting percentage. After 13 years and 4896 shots, with a low in shooting percentage of 8.7% and a high of 14.6%, you'd think those were the outer bounds for Ovechkin's shooting percentage. But then he goes and has back to back years of 15.1% and 15.4% on only slightly reduced shot volume at age 33 and 34. If you look at the list of player-seasons since the lockout of players with a 15% shooting percentage or higher, the only players who've broken 4 shots/game are Kovalchuk in 05-06 (4.14 SPG), Lecavalier in 06-07 (4.13 SPG), Gaborik in 2 partial seasons in 06-07 and 08-09 (48 games, 4.08 in 06-07, 17 games, 4.00 in 08-09), as well as Auston Matthews this year (4.14) and technically David Pastrnak is at 3.99 SPG this year, 1 shot short (279 shots in 70 games). Then you have Ovechkin at 4.17 SPG last year and 4.57 this year.

I haven't really tried to engage with your SHOT VOLUME diatribes because you've never tried to define the other sides of your argument - namely what is the optimal efficiency that a player should shoot at? Is it the 16.9% of Stamkos, the 14.6% of Crosby, the 13.7% of Malkin, or the 12.7% of Ovechkin? I believe the average forward shooting percentage for NHL players is around 10%, so they're all above average shooters. How about defining optimal shot volume as well - Stamkos is at 3.11 SPG, Crosby 3.22, Malkin 3.36, while Ovechkin is at 4.81. The whole implication of your argument is that Ovechkin is somehow "gaming" the system by putting up so many shots, but the fact that he's still distinctly above league average in shooting percentage despite putting up 50% more shots per game than other elite players really negates that line of thought to me.

Look at Crosby's 2 seasons leading the league in goals, which are the only 2 full seasons where he's breached a 17% shooting percentage. He didn't generate much extra volume compared to his career shots per game, it's just that a few extra shots those years went in. He can't maintain that 17% shooting percentage, but those outlier years happened to coincide with enough shot volume to lead the league in goals. In contrast, Ovechkin has lead the league in goals shooting 14.6, 10.6, 12.5, 13.2, 13.4, 12.6, 13.8, 15.1 and 15.4%. He doesn't need to have an outlier shooting percentage year to win the goal scoring race because his consistent volume of shots generates his numbers.

Here's something interesting that just occurred to me - what would Crosby/Ovechkin have needed to shoot each year they won the Rocket to win by 1 goal as opposed to their actual margin (or their actual shooting percentage in the event of a tie).

	Goals		Shots	S%		Req		Shots	S%
Crosby	51		298	0.171		51		298	0.171
	44		255	0.173		41		255	0.161
Ovechkin	65		446	0.146		53		446	0.119
	56		528	0.106		47		528	0.089
	32		220	0.145		30		220	0.136
	51		386	0.132		44		386	0.114
	53		395	0.134		44		395	0.111
	50		398	0.126		47		398	0.118
	49		355	0.138		45		355	0.127
	51		338	0.151		51		338	0.151
	48		311	0.154		48		311	0.154

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Crosby needs to still shoot 17% the year he tied with Stamkos, and 16% in the other year, while Ovechkin can almost put up league average shooting years and still win. Only in his decline years have his margins reduced enough that he actually needs to shoot well to win.

 

[greyraven8]

I'm not comfortable with anyone being considered the GOAT for a few reasons - the most important that GOAT to me means someone having a Bill Buckner like moment. My head is already full of enough stupid acronyms and the like and this one doesn't deserve a place in that space.