Are you comfortable with a claim of OV being the GOAT goalscorer?

[Johnny Engine]

Is there any debate that OV's best goalscoring seasons in 07/08 and 09/10 (with consideration for missed games) are not particularly close to being among the very best all-time?

I am referring to in a strict statistical sense, not with subjective opinion that one era is stronger than another.

Between the soft double negative in this post "...debate that...are not...", the unstated definition of "strict statistical sense", and the fact that Ovechkin didn't even lead the league in goals in 09/10, I am really struggling to wrap my head around this one.

Can you try the question again?

 

[daver]

Between the soft double negative in this post "...debate that...are not...", the unstated definition of "strict statistical sense", and the fact that Ovechkin didn't even lead the league in goals in 09/10, I am really struggling to wrap my head around this one.

Can you try the question again?

IMO, there are numerous seasons where others were more dominant vs. their peers than OV was in 07/08 (and on a goals per game basis in 09/10).

 

[filinski77]

IMO, there are numerous seasons where others were more dominant vs. their peers than OV was in 07/08 (and on a goals per game basis in 09/10).

Yes there have been some seasons more dominant than Ovechkin was, but Ovi's claim to fame has been his number of high-end seasons, and the most rocket wins in history.

Since the 1977/1978 season (When Bossy came into the league) (went ahead and adjusted Ovi's 09/10 just like ya said):

	Season Start	Season End	Goal Leader	Goals	2nd goals	% over 2nd
1	1990	1991	Hull Jr	86	51	69%
2	1983	1984	Gretzky	87	56	55%
3	1981	1982	Gretzky	92	64	44%
4	1999	2000	Bure	58	44	32%
5	1991	1992	Hull Jr	70	54	30%
6	2001	2002	Iginla	52	41	27%
7	2007	2008	Ovechkin	65	52	25%
8	1987	1988	Lemieux	70	56	25%
9	2014	2015	Ovechkin	53	43	23%
10	2008	2009	Ovechkin	56	46	22%
11	1988	1989	Lemieux	85	70	21%
12	2011	2012	Stamkos	60	50	20%
13	2013	2014	Ovechkin	51	43	19%
14	1980	1981	Bossy	68	58	17%
15	1978	1979	Bossy	69	59	17%
16	1989	1990	Jull Jr	72	62	16%
17	1977	1978	Lafleur	60	53	13%
18	2009	2010	Ovechkin (*Adj/gp*)	57	51	12%
19	1985	1986	Kurri	68	61	11%
20	2017	2018	Ovechkin	49	44	11%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

	Season Start	Season End	Goal Leader	Goals	10th goals	% over 10th
1	1990	1991	Hull Jr	86	45	91%
2	1983	1984	Gretzky	87	47	85%
3	1988	1989	Lemieux	85	46	85%
4	1981	1982	Gretzky	92	50	84%
5	1978	1979	Bossy	69	40	73%
6	1991	1992	Hull Jr	70	42	67%
7	2011	2012	Stamkos	60	36	67%
8	2009	2010	Ovechkin (*Adj/gp*)	57	35	63%
9	2007	2008	Ovechkin	65	40	63%
10	1999	2000	Bure	58	36	61%
11	2014	2015	Ovechkin	53	33	61%
12	1989	1990	Jull Jr	72	45	60%
13	1984	1985	Gretzky	73	46	59%
14	1997	1998	Bondra	52	33	58%
15	2012	2013	Ovechkin	32	21	52%
16	2015	2016	Ovechkin	50	33	52%
17	2013	2014	Ovechkin	51	34	50%
18	1977	1978	Lafleur	60	40	50%
19	1982	1983	Gretzky	71	48	48%
20	1985	1986	Kurri	68	46	48%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

People Like Hull or Gretzky having 2 more dominant seasons than Ovi doesn't really compensate for how Ovi had 5-6+ in the top 20

 

[daver]

Yes there have been some seasons more dominant than Ovechkin was, but Ovi's claim to fame has been his number of high-end seasons, and the most rocket wins in history.

Since the 1977/1978 season (When Bossy came into the league) (went ahead and adjusted Ovi's 09/10 just like ya said):

	Season Start	Season End	Goal Leader	Goals	2nd goals	% over 2nd
1	1990	1991	Hull Jr	86	51	69%
2	1983	1984	Gretzky	87	56	55%
3	1981	1982	Gretzky	92	64	44%
4	1999	2000	Bure	58	44	32%
5	1991	1992	Hull Jr	70	54	30%
6	2001	2002	Iginla	52	41	27%
7	2007	2008	Ovechkin	65	52	25%
8	1987	1988	Lemieux	70	56	25%
9	2014	2015	Ovechkin	53	43	23%
10	2008	2009	Ovechkin	56	46	22%
11	1988	1989	Lemieux	85	70	21%
12	2011	2012	Stamkos	60	50	20%
13	2013	2014	Ovechkin	51	43	19%
14	1980	1981	Bossy	68	58	17%
15	1978	1979	Bossy	69	59	17%
16	1989	1990	Jull Jr	72	62	16%
17	1977	1978	Lafleur	60	53	13%
18	2009	2010	Ovechkin (*Adj/gp*)	57	51	12%
19	1985	1986	Kurri	68	61	11%
20	2017	2018	Ovechkin	49	44	11%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

	Season Start	Season End	Goal Leader	Goals	10th goals	% over 10th
1	1990	1991	Hull Jr	86	45	91%
2	1983	1984	Gretzky	87	47	85%
3	1988	1989	Lemieux	85	46	85%
4	1981	1982	Gretzky	92	50	84%
5	1978	1979	Bossy	69	40	73%
6	1991	1992	Hull Jr	70	42	67%
7	2011	2012	Stamkos	60	36	67%
8	2009	2010	Ovechkin (*Adj/gp*)	57	35	63%
9	2007	2008	Ovechkin	65	40	63%
10	1999	2000	Bure	58	36	61%
11	2014	2015	Ovechkin	53	33	61%
12	1989	1990	Jull Jr	72	45	60%
13	1984	1985	Gretzky	73	46	59%
14	1997	1998	Bondra	52	33	58%
15	2012	2013	Ovechkin	32	21	52%
16	2015	2016	Ovechkin	50	33	52%
17	2013	2014	Ovechkin	51	34	50%
18	1977	1978	Lafleur	60	40	50%
19	1982	1983	Gretzky	71	48	48%
20	1985	1986	Kurri	68	46	48%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

People Like Hull or Gretzky having 2 more dominant seasons than Ovi doesn't really compensate for how Ovi had 5-6+ in the top 20

That you can add seasons by most notably Hull, Richard and Howe to this list adds to the narrative that peak goalscoring ability (IMO, the primary metric for measuring the best/greatest) is not really close for OV. Best peak of his era? Stamkos has a place right with him.

If he had one season that was among the very best all-time, then he has a much better case for the claim if one wants to pigeonhole everyone into the "goalscorer" topic.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

No. Someone (Chitown?) posted a stat that he's led the league in ES goal scoring once the last 10 years. His era's been quite soft too, and he remodeled himself as a designated trigger man in a style that's not pleasing to my poor brain. I don't like the lack of versatility. The best goal scorer ever should be an all-situations player. Peak Ovi got a case for something that's good, not this last decade guy collecting Richard trophies with an assist ratio that would make Peter Bondra a proud companion.

Mario's probably my favorite. Then I have Bobby Hull. Then Bure.

Has a problem with OV at ES (5x 1st in ESG, 11x top 5).. chooses Lemieux (1x 1st in ESG, 4x top 5) as fav. Makes sense.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

OV is the greatest, Lemieux is the best.

 

[McGuillicuddy]

Some figures that I think are relevant to the conversation. The first is a plot of Career Goals vs Games played for Gretzky and Ovechkin. Gretzky sure gets off to a great start and then slows down as we all know. Ovechkin is remarkably linear (R2 = 0.9982) illustrating just how consistent he has been over his career.

The second figure is a season-by-season plot of each players goals from the start of their careers, normalized to the VsX benchmark for that season (taken from https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...-summary-1927-to-2019.2215905/#post-130701959). This data purely demonstrates dominance over peers and normalizes for era pretty well. It's about as fair a comparison across eras as is possible I think. This data also illustrates both Ovechkin's consistency but also his lack of seasons to rival Gretzky's peak.

This next one is the same data but with the seasons ranked best to worst. This one really shows both Gretzky's short goal-scoring peak but also Ovechkin's superior longevity. Gretzky burned fast and bright as a scorer with 3 seasons better than Ovechkins best, while Ovechkin maintained a much more consistent level of performance with no obvious peak.

 

[McGuillicuddy]

Double-post.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I dont know about GOAT just yet. I can't argue him being in the conversation. but still too premature to call him the GOAT.

 

[Midnight Judges]

IMO, there are numerous seasons where others were more dominant vs. their peers than OV was in 07/08 (and on a goals per game basis in 09/10).

Your opinion is flat out wrong.

Era Adjusted: Greatest NHL goal-scoring seasons of all-time - Sportsnet.ca

 

[Midnight Judges]

IMO, there are numerous seasons where others were more dominant vs. their peers than OV was in 07/08 (and on a goals per game basis in 09/10).

Your opinion is flat out wrong.

Era Adjusted: Greatest NHL goal-scoring seasons of all-time - Sportsnet.ca

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Your opinion is flat out wrong.

Era Adjusted: Greatest NHL goal-scoring seasons of all-time - Sportsnet.ca

I don't get it.

 

[Sentinel]

Why are Brett Hull and Phil Esposito being so short-changed in this thread?

 

[Midnight Judges]

This data also illustrates both Ovechkin's consistency but also his lack of seasons to rival Gretzky's peak.

It really doesn't though.

You are needlessly looking at individual seasons in a vacuum. Why ignore other peak seasons if they are in the same era and the same scoring environment? There is no rationale for that. All you are doing is ignoring important context.

Brett Hull had an 86 goal season in the same era. Gretzky's season is only 7% better in raw totals and actually Hull's is significantly better if you adjust for league wide scoring. Lemieux also had 85 (8.2% difference. Stamkos came closest in Ovie's era to to Ovie but Ovie's season is 8.3% more goals than Stamkos's, except unlike Gretzky, Ovechkin still comes out on top when you adjust for league wide scoring.

 

[McGuillicuddy]

Your opinion is flat out wrong.

Era Adjusted: Greatest NHL goal-scoring seasons of all-time - Sportsnet.ca

The method used by that Sportsnet article is a notoriously poor way of comparing across eras. It's not going to convince anybody here.

 

[Midnight Judges]

The method used by that Sportsnet article is a notoriously poor way of comparing across eras. It's not going to convince anybody here.

It's infinitely better than the idiotic VsX method of ignoring all comparables unless they just so happened to occur in the same season.

 

[McGuillicuddy]

It's infinitely better than the idiotic VsX method of ignoring all comparables unless they just so happened to occur in the same season.

Now you're being deliberately inflammatory. Have at it then.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Infinitely? Now you're being deliberately inflammatory. Have at it then.

VsX rampantly gives false impressions by highlighting weak competition in equal or greater measure relative to high performance.

Peak seasons are inherently a small sample size. Needlessly making it way smaller - as VsX does - is just begging for anomalous data and arbitrary results.

What your chart shows is that you think if Brett Hull was born earlier (and had his peak season sooner), then you would hold Wayne Gretzky is far lesser esteem. That's nonsensical.

 

[Midnight Judges]

The method used by that Sportsnet article is a notoriously poor way of comparing across eras. It's not going to convince anybody here.

What exactly do you think is poor about their adjustments, and how could they be improved?

 

[Merya]

I'm excited that there is a modern player that is in conversation for greatest scorer of all time. He'll have to break 900 before an overwhelming consensus can be achieved I believe. Even if he does that some will accuse him of being a compiler.

 

[Michael Farkas]

As a bystander, what's the knock on Ovechkin's 2008 season...? He scored whenever he wanted...

 

[wetcoast]

As a bystander, what's the knock on Ovechkin's 2008 season...? He scored whenever he wanted...

There isn't one in reality.

 

[GOilers88]

So Mike Gartner was a better goalscorer than Mario Lemieux?

Mario is an unfortunate case because I believe he is the only man who could have topped Gretzky had he been blessed with a longer and healthier career.

That said,I fail to understand the point of stat keeping and listing all time leaders if Player A can be almost 200 goals behind Player B yet still be considered the greatest goalscorer of all time. When Ovi's career is over and he gets closer to 894 (I think he'll get close but not break it, though I hope he does) I'll be more than willing to reassess. As of right now though, I don't think you can possibly overlook the massive gap in total goals that still separates the two.

 

[YippieKaey]

Mario is an unfortunate case because I believe he is the only man who could have topped Gretzky had he been blessed with a longer and healthier career.

That said,I fail to understand the point of stat keeping and listing all time leaders if Player A can be almost 200 goals behind Player B yet still be considered the greatest goalscorer of all time. When Ovi's career is over and he gets closer to 894 (I think he'll get close but not break it, though I hope he does) I'll be more than willing to reassess. As of right now though, I don't think you can possibly overlook the massive gap in total goals that still separates the two.

It's definitely debatable. But think of it this way, Gretzky scored in a period when there were more goals scored overall. His percentage of all the goals scored during his career should be weighed against Ovi's percentage of all the goals scored during his career. Do you agree that this is a fair way to evaluate the players respective goal scoring?

 

[bobholly39]

As a bystander, what's the knock on Ovechkin's 2008 season...? He scored whenever he wanted...

Its not the best goal scoring season ever. Its also not the 2nd best. Not even top 5. Probably not that far off though.

Its not exactly a knock.