Are you comfortable with a claim of OV being the GOAT goalscorer?

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Calderon

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Likewise, you can't punish Bossy for having career ending injuries.

You cannot just assume if Bossy played longer his goal scoring would drop drastically like Gretzky's did.

As great as Bossy's career was, just looking at the raw stats alternating between 50+ and 60+ goals per season, the fact that he was a very clear second to Gretzky during the overlap of their respective careers (and had the luxury of a very good team as did Gretzky) means there's no way we can elevate him above Gretzky. After that, the comparisons with other all-time greatest goal scorers become pretty pointless.

With, say, Ovechkin, you at least have the what-ifs in terms of wondering how he would've fared in the 1980s (not that much stock at all should be put to that).

Essentially, what Bossy lost was a chance to prove could score 50+ goals like 16-20 straight seasons. 16 50+ goal seasons would pretty much cement the longevity part and make Bossy the best in that regard (while still lacking in peak and, to lesser extent, prime). But that's just delving too far into dreamland and raises the question of what if we extend the same speculations to other greats.

Bossy has a outstanding goal scoring peak in the playoffs with three straight 17-goal post seasons but even his playoff numbers don't really change his all time stature that much.

I'd probably rank Bossy as the greatest goal scorer behind the selected few who have a case for THE greatest.
 

Calderon

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I'm a big Ovechkin fan, the 2005-06 season rekindled my love for NHL hockey and did so mainly thru Ovi. A few thoughts on his career as one of the all-time goal scorers:
  • Up to the Vancouver Olympics he was just legendary. Two Rockets in first five seasons with the 3rd basically his until he gets suspended and his game suffers (OG letdown has a clear negative impact as well)
  • The two 30+ goal seasons during the supposed heart of his peak years are really a pity and a stain in his otherwise incredible resume (the third 30-goal season obv a shortened one and gets him his third RR trophy)
  • After that a string of 50-goal seasons and numerous RR trophies (with one more 30+ goal season in there), changes his career trajectory drastically, basically starts the climb to the mount Rushmore of GOAT goal scorers by "compiling Rocket Richard Trophies"
  • The clear decline in assists hurt him, whether or not it should affect on how we view him as a goal scorer is a legit point of discussion
  • For the greatest peak as a goal scorer Ovi is lacking, another 60-goal RR trophy with a considerable winning margin would have done wonders
  • The previous point means I can't regard him as the BEST ever goal scorer but the way his career is shaping up the last few seasons, he has a very good chance ending up the greatest (Is he the GOAT right now? A clear one, not. One of them, yes)
 
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Vilica

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I've done a crap ton of work on Hull vs Ovechkin, and here's a bunch of numbers I've compiled that compare them directly, without referring to percentage leads over 10th or number of top 5/top 10 finishes.

Here's their NHL totals:

GPGFPGPPGFGF/FPGF/GShotsPShotsSPGPSPG
HullTotal10823381103632543.1253.141292942795131.1031.20
Absenta191012321896630913.1803.200292942795131.1031.20
OvechkinTotal11143367108432793.0223.025333573241229.9429.90
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ovechkin's totals do not include this year, and the Absent a19 line removes Hull's first season in the league, to match their ages. Each stat is separated into full team and player games only, where I went through each year and removed the games where Ovechkin/Hull did not play to get a purer sample. It doesn't make much of a difference, but it makes enough of a difference in a subsequent stat that you should do it. Unfortunately, so far I haven't figured out a way to automate the process, so it takes way too long fiddling with splits to get the month of games missed, then game logs to get the games missed, then box scores to get the goals/shots. You can also see that, whether or not you include Hull's early seasons, the Blackhawks scored more goals than the Capitals did, though not extremely so - between 4-7% more depending on if you remove Hull's age 19 season or not. However, that's balanced out by the fact that the Capitals played more games than the Hawks, and in the end both teams scored a similar number of goals. That leads to this larger second table, which breaks down each individual season [I edited out the original team goals/team shots/actual goals/actual shots columns from each player's table so I could present them side-by-side. 57-58 is Hull's age 19 season, so Ovechkin's seasons are offset to match same age player-seasons, and no shot data exists for 57-58 or 58-59].

HullGoalsPointsShotsG%P%S% OviGoalsPointsShotsG%P%S%
57-581347 0.0800.288
58-591850 0.0910.254 05-06521064250.2290.4670.176
59-6039813190.2040.4240.146 06-0746923920.1970.3930.171
60-6131563090.1600.2890.146 07-08651124460.2730.4710.197
61-6250843750.2300.3870.174 08-09561105280.2120.4170.199
62-6331623050.1690.3390.154 09-10501093680.1870.4080.156
63-6443874080.1970.3990.178 10-1132853670.1500.3990.148
64-6539713680.1990.3620.200 11-1238653030.1840.3160.139
65-6654973510.2390.4290.179 12-1332562200.2190.3840.163
66-6752803200.2090.3210.154 13-1451793860.2370.3670.168
67-6844753670.2140.3640.172 14-1553813950.2250.3430.165
68-69581074140.2140.3950.164 15-1650713980.2030.2890.165
69-7038672890.1810.3190.146 16-1733693130.1260.2640.125
70-7144963780.1590.3470.156 17-1849873550.1910.3400.149
71-7250933360.1950.3630.147 18-1951893380.1890.3300.138
1036604115345390.1860.3540.162 Total658121152340.2010.3690.161
966591110645390.1910.3580.162 1084
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ovechkin's just a smidge ahead of Hull, but the ratios are quite close, despite being separated by nearly 50 years. With regards to the games played discrepancy, it all depends on the Hull seasons you include, and how you account for games missed. If you include Hull's age 19 season, he played 1036/1082 games, or 95.7%. Ovechkin played 1084/1114 games, or 97.3%. The Capitals played an extra 32 games, Ovechkin played 48 more games. Separating out games not played helps me in a separate sheet that I created, where I calculated G% and P% for a bunch of top 100 forwards, but without removing games they did not play. Ovechkin's ratios were 0.195/0.360, while Hull's were 0.179/0.341, so you have a small but significant gap. I just spent a bit of time calculating Bossy's adjustments, and though I won't post his tables here now, I can mention that his G%/P%/S% ratio is 0.183/0.359/0.120, on 3136 goals for in 752 games compared to the Islanders total of 3323 in 800 games. Bossy played 94% of possible games, and his unadjusted G%/P% was 0.172/0.339, so a larger gap than Hull/Ovechkin, but still quite in range.

This is why I'm so bullish on using Team GF/G to compare players in different eras. Here you have goal scoring wingers from 3 completely different eras, and yet as a percentage of team goals, their G% and P% are remarkably in line with each other. Thus, you can use the GF/G ratio from each team to convert goals/assists/points to the other's scoring level, or you can try to take a bigger picture by assuming each team's offense would be the same above/below league average, and adjust point totals that way. [eg if Washington scored 225 goals in a 200 league average league, that means they're 12.5% above average. In a 300 league average league, that translates to 337.5 goals, and then you apply Ovechkin's same G%/P% to emulate his stats on a team that scored 337.5 goals instead of 225 goals.]

Finally, I also find it highly amusing that despite some posters here disparaging Ovechkin for his VOLUME SHOOTING, that both Hull and Ovechkin account for the exact same percentage of team shots. I could mention a few other things, but this post is long enough already, and I've spent way too much time on it.
 

vadim sharifijanov

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If Ovechkin retired today, he would absolutely be in the conversation for greatest goal-scorer in NHL history.

Prime - this is probably the strongest part of his case. He placed in the top three in goal-scoring 12 times in 15 seasons (in a 30 team league) - that's nearly unfathomable. Assuming the 2020 season ends here, he has nine goal-scoring crowns in 13 years. The only player who seriously rivals that is Howe (first or second in goal-scoring ten times in 14 years - and of course this was in a smaller league with less of a chance for another player to have a big season).

to me, the most amazing thing about ovechkin's goal scoring resume is he has seven rockets in eight seasons, and that run is outside of his three year goal scoring peak.

as you say, he only has one true historical season. but his 56 goals in '09 wasn't far off 2000 bure in how much he blew away the competition (jeff carter's 46 goals). and he was on pace in 2010 for a handsome five goal lead. that's one of the all time three year runs and he has seven rockets in eight seasons outside of it.

the other amazing thing is he currently has the second most 50 goal seasons, after gretzky and bossy, and he's only one behind. this is a guy who would almost certainly have hit 50 in the lockout year, assuming good health, and but for covid-19 would almost certainly have hit 50 by now.

he also has a 49 goal rocket richard season. he's so close to eleven 50 goal seasons, two more than the record. add in era and i'm not saying he's better than gretzky or bossy, but his accomplishments are right there with them.

ironically, if he'd just gone to the damn all-star game, and he's got nothing to save himself for now anyway this year, he might have tied the bossy/gretzky record.
 
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67 others

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As great as Bossy's career was, just looking at the raw stats alternating between 50+ and 60+ goals per season, the fact that he was a very clear second to Gretzky during the overlap of their respective careers (and had the luxury of a very good team as did Gretzky) means there's no way we can elevate him above Gretzky. After that, the comparisons with other all-time greatest goal scorers become pretty pointless.

With, say, Ovechkin, you at least have the what-ifs in terms of wondering how he would've fared in the 1980s (not that much stock at all should be put to that).

Essentially, what Bossy lost was a chance to prove could score 50+ goals like 16-20 straight seasons. 16 50+ goal seasons would pretty much cement the longevity part and make Bossy the best in that regard (while still lacking in peak and, to lesser extent, prime). But that's just delving too far into dreamland and raises the question of what if we extend the same speculations to other greats.

Bossy has a outstanding goal scoring peak in the playoffs with three straight 17-goal post seasons but even his playoff numbers don't really change his all time stature that much.

I'd probably rank Bossy as the greatest goal scorer behind the selected few who have a case for THE greatest.
The problem with that scenario is, Gretzky would do that to everybody. He is so far above everyone else in history offensively

If you overlap Gretzky's first 10 years (and the people Gretzky elevated with his playmaking like Kurri and Nichols)with any scorer in NHL history, they look to be second by default.

Which is why in the history section, he is like the one guy people are allowed to omit stats of because of the Gretzky effect
 
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67 others

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Who says they weren't? I just gave one example with Lemieux.

I could put together a similar statement for Ovechkin in regards to Gretzky or Hull. Ovechkin has longevity edge over Hull, and Gretzky's 2nd half to career in goal-scoring is weak - era adjusted Ovechkin already scored the equivalent of Gretzky's career 894 goals, or close enough.



Ovechkin has more goals than Lemieux in a much lower scoring era. If you "adjust", it gives him a bigger edge in career goals. Considering Ovechkin isn't retiring today - and that I think on the very worst of projections he's good for another ~100 career goals minimum (so 800+ total) - I think I fully expect Ovechkin to be called the greater Goal-scorer than Lemieux upon retirement. ~800 is a conservative career estimate - he might land closer to ~900, or even slightly above.

Edge to Lemieux in peak - but Ovechkin overtakes him in the long run to earn the title of greatest.
If we go the adjusted stats route, people need to remember this tidbit. Are you comfortable saying Joe Thornton is potentially the 2nd or 3rd highest points man in NHL history? And definitely, not potentially, the 2nd highest assist man in NHL history?
 

67 others

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Yes you can because that's how it works for all players. Also, Bossy isn't in the conversation for one of the 3 greatest goal scorers ever. He wasn't close to the best of his era, his totals aren't high enough and even if Gretzky didn't exist he would only have won 3 goal scoring titles anyhow.
5
not 3.
The Gretzky effect extends to the fact that Jari kurri is unlikely to have beaten Bossy without those 160 assist season from the great one. Not a single person who watched them both play believe Kurri would have beaten Bossy those two years. 50 goal scorer without Gretzky sure, but not 70
 

JasonRoseEh

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5
not 3.
The Gretzky effect extends to the fact that Jari kurri is unlikely to have beaten Bossy without those 160 assist season from the great one. Not a single person who watched them both play believe Kurri would have beaten Bossy those two years. 50 goal scorer without Gretzky sure, but not 70
Conjecture and the year after Gretzky was traded Kurri scored 44 and over 100 points. Bottom line Bossy wasn't close to being the best goal scorer of his era, didn't win enough goal scoring titles and didn't do it long enough to be in the elite 3-5 conversation for greatest goal scorers ever.
 

JasonRoseEh

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No. Someone (Chitown?) posted a stat that he's led the league in ES goal scoring once the last 10 years. His era's been quite soft too, and he remodeled himself as a designated trigger man in a style that's not pleasing to my poor brain. I don't like the lack of versatility. The best goal scorer ever should be an all-situations player. Peak Ovi got a case for something that's good, not this last decade guy collecting Richard trophies with an assist ratio that would make Peter Bondra a proud companion.

Mario's probably my favorite. Then I have Bobby Hull. Then Bure.
I mean Ovechkin is the active leader in even strength goals since entering the league by a mile and has been right at the top of this category consistently, including this year where he is tied for the EVG lead AT AGE 35!!!. Soft is conjecture unless you're pointing to fighting as the game is faster and collisions are far more devastating today unless you count random dirty elbows in era's past. Simply put, the game takes more effort and more out of an athlete to play now than ever. There are no scrubs in the modern NHL unlike the 80/90's, everyone can skate, shoot and handle the puck. Regardless, Ovechkin is bigger, more durable and much stronger than any of the all time great goal scorers you covet so it wouldn't matter what era he played in. The only player rivaling him in size was Mario and Ovechkin has roughly 35lbs on him, he'd absolutely truck dmen in the era's of your greatest goal scorers.

Ovechkin is as prolific as a goal scorer as has ever been throughout the majority of his career and heat maps prove this until 2014 where he began to change, fading more to the left circle. Regardless, the ultimate goal is to put the puck in the net and he's doing it more than pretty much anyone ever, in pretty much the most difficult era to be a great goal scorer. People bag on the assist numbers, but show me who the other players are that are putting the puck in the net for the Capitals since the high octane offenses up to 2010-ish? The guys is 13th in the league in assist totals since he entered it, you're acting like he isn't in the top 50! The Penguins have had Malkin and Kessel hitting 100 point totals alongside Crosby, who has Ovechkin had to do this outside of one Backstrom year? I'll wait...

Regardless, he leads his team in goals and points annually and consistently to the top of the league, winning his division. The Caps don't have to have a 100 point getter annually to be the best regular season team and I'm not sure what 10 more lol-secondaries are supposed to prove other than fans bias against him being the GOAT, which he almost assuredly is now, and when he's done there won't really be any doubt.
 

Midnight Judges

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not 3.
The Gretzky effect extends to the fact that Jari kurri is unlikely to have beaten Bossy without those 160 assist season from the great one. Not a single person who watched them both play believe Kurri would have beaten Bossy those two years. 50 goal scorer without Gretzky sure, but not 70

Mike Bossy played on an all-time great dynasty with two top 30-ish players of all time. It's not like he didn't have massive advantages of his own.
 

bobholly39

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If we go the adjusted stats route, people need to remember this tidbit. Are you comfortable saying Joe Thornton is potentially the 2nd or 3rd highest points man in NHL history? And definitely, not potentially, the 2nd highest assist man in NHL history?

I'm not sure i understand your point. Thornton doesn't have the 2nd nor 3rd highest points total, nor assist total - not even if you "adjust" unless you do so in some insane new way i've not seen. But Thornton will finish high in the all time point scoring, and assist scoring race - he's had a great, long and productive career. Just not as high as top 2 or 3.

We don't need to agree on a method of "adjusting" points or goals. I promise you we won't agree in fact - i don't agree with any method out there, I think each season needs to be looked at separately with appropriate context, "adjusting points" in a vacuum doesn't work. But we don't need to agree on the method of calculating it to recognize that Lemieux benefited more from the high scoring era (as did Gretzky and Hull). By how much is debatable and the tricky thing to calculate. Considering Ovechkin already surpassed both Lemieux and Hull's totals , it's clear edge to him. I think if you adjust for scoring era - Ovechkin is likely very close to Gretzky's career goal total right now. Considering he should be good for a minimum of 100+ more career goals in coming years (and possibly more) - I think he'll earn the title of greatest goal-scorer pretty unanimously by the time he's done.

Peak goal-scorer? I don't have him #1 - and i don't expect that to change. Gretzky or Lemieux.
 

Dennis Bonvie

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Yes you can because that's how it works for all players. Also, Bossy isn't in the conversation for one of the 3 greatest goal scorers ever. He wasn't close to the best of his era, his totals aren't high enough and even if Gretzky didn't exist he would only have won 3 goal scoring titles anyhow.

Does it?

Ovechkin has seasons of 49, 51 and 48 after 30 years old. Probably will continue. Gordie Howe didn't diminish that much after 30.

Gretzky, however, never had a 40 goal season after 30 years old. That's a huge drop off (from a 4 season run of 92, 71, 87 and 73) which I would contend you could not assume for Bossy.
 

67 others

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I'm not sure i understand your point. Thornton doesn't have the 2nd nor 3rd highest points total, nor assist total - not even if you "adjust" unless you do so in some insane new way i've not seen. But Thornton will finish high in the all time point scoring, and assist scoring race - he's had a great, long and productive career. Just not as high as top 2 or 3.

We don't need to agree on a method of "adjusting" points or goals. I promise you we won't agree in fact - i don't agree with any method out there, I think each season needs to be looked at separately with appropriate context, "adjusting points" in a vacuum doesn't work. But we don't need to agree on the method of calculating it to recognize that Lemieux benefited more from the high scoring era (as did Gretzky and Hull). By how much is debatable and the tricky thing to calculate. Considering Ovechkin already surpassed both Lemieux and Hull's totals , it's clear edge to him. I think if you adjust for scoring era - Ovechkin is likely very close to Gretzky's career goal total right now. Considering he should be good for a minimum of 100+ more career goals in coming years (and possibly more) - I think he'll earn the title of greatest goal-scorer pretty unanimously by the time he's done.

Peak goal-scorer? I don't have him #1 - and i don't expect that to change. Gretzky or Lemieux.
Actually he comes out very very high. if you do adjusted points , you take each year and equalize it to the all time average goals per year. Anyone who played in the 80's and early 90's take a huge hit.

He currently sits 14th all time in points with 1509. He played his entire career starting in the dead puck era forward, not even counting missing an entire year of his prime to lockout and another half year later on to lockout. Mark Messier currently sits 3rd all time with 1887 points. But his prime 16 years were spent in the 80's and early 90's in the highest scoring era. So did just about every star on the list ahead of Thornton except Gordie Howe and Jagr and Jagr's early years would still get clipped.

For assists there is no debate. He is currently with no adjusting 7th all time with 1089. In 2nd place is Ron Francis with 1249. The 6 players ahead of Thornton are all guys with a significant amount of years in the 80's and early 90's whose numbers get clipped in adjusting while his totals get boosted.

With the added context of him losing an entire season his his prime to lockout and calling the 94/95 lockout and 2013 lockout a wash, its safe to bet he would have another 60 or 70 assists on his resume. Probably another 100+ point season.

People mention in context that Ovechkin lost his rookie year to lockout and say his totals should be even higher. So its only fair to also do the same for Thornton since he was in his Hart prime caliber play during the lockout.
 

67 others

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Mike Bossy played on an all-time great dynasty with two top 30-ish players of all time. It's not like he didn't have massive advantages of his own.
None of whom were Wayne Gretzky. Gretzky is an anomaly that deserves a category of his own, but Lemieux is close in that regard. He boosted good players to way better.

But on that note, Bossy was the offensive Dynamo of the isles who made everyone he played with better. Not vice versa. He didn't miss a beat the year Trottier was completely hobbled by knee surgery and demoted to the 3rd line. Bossy got put with Brent Sutter. Sutter and Toneli had monstrous career years that year because they got to play with the boss. Sutter was a career average 50 point player who just happened to score 42 goals and 102 points that year and NEVER EVER came close to that total again.
 

Dennis Bonvie

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I don't think of Lemieux, Howe and (especially Gretzky) as goalscorers. Simply the greatest offensive players.

Consider Gretzky led the NHL in goals in 5 seasons. But he led the league is assists 16 times. And in points 10 times.

He's not a goalscorer. He's Gretzky.
 
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JasonRoseEh

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Does it?

Ovechkin has seasons of 49, 51 and 48 after 30 years old. Probably will continue. Gordie Howe didn't diminish that much after 30.

Gretzky, however, never had a 40 goal season after 30 years old. That's a huge drop off (from a 4 season run of 92, 71, 87 and 73) which I would contend you could not assume for Bossy.
I mean eventually you will deteriorate the longer you play, it's inevitable. I'm not setting an age barometer here, but the old adage that father time is undefeated is always true, it's just a difference scale for different players.

Some guys prolong it like Lebron pumping PED's for a decade, others age incredibly well like Ovechkin, some flame out so fast that you don't really understand why, it's different for everyone.
 
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67 others

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I mean eventually you will deteriorate the longer you play, it's inevitable. I'm not setting an age barometer here, but the old adage that father time is undefeated is always true, it's just a difference scale for different players.
Oh absolutely. in every sport.

Some Mixed martial artists fade fast after a 3 year prime and are done in their early 30's. Some win titles at age 40 and 43 like Randy Couture after years of speculation that their best years are done.
 
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JasonRoseEh

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Oh absolutely. in every sport.

Some Mixed martial artists fade fast after a 3 year prime and are done in their early 30's. Some win titles at age 40 and 43 like Randy Couture after years of speculation that their best years are done.
Also, you have to account for what fighters did prior to even making it to the show, a show that didn't even exist until much later in guys careers. I look at a guy like Wanderlei Silve (my fave fighter of all time btw) who fought Vale Tudo (bare knuckle/headbutts/ pretty much anything outside of biting etc) for years prior to hitting it big in his prime during Pride. By the time he made it to the UFC as a mainstay he was more or less done and couldn't' take a punch, yet many would only know him from there which is a shame.
 
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67 others

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Also, you have to account for what fighters did prior to even making it to the show, a show that didn't even exist until much later in guys careers. I look at a guy like Wanderlei Silve (my fave fighter of all time btw) who fought Vale Tudo (bare knuckle/headbutts/ pretty much anything outside of biting etc) for years prior to hitting it big in his prime during Pride. By the time he made it to the UFC as a mainstay he was more of less done, yet many would only know him from there which is a shame.
Wanderlei is also my favorite fighter of all time lol. I have every pride event ever made on my harddrive and often bring them out when company is over and alcohol is flowing

The guy was named the axe murderer for a reason.

Rampage is another guy who was much better in Pride than the UFC. Watching his crisp bouncing youthful movement when he beat Liddell in pride(With Dana White looking on in commentary) vs his UFC days is night and day different.

Everyone disparages Fedor for his recent losses but I still consider him one of the GOAT. that man was a beast.
 
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67 others

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There is no need to speculate regarding Bossy. We know what happened: His drop off was far more dramatic than Gretzky's.
His back was completely wrecked. A combination of overcompensating for his bad knee from a high school age injury and getting cross checked about 10 times a game for 9 years. The final year he could barely bend to lace his skates and he still scored 38 goals in 63 games.

There are a lot of "what if's" involved with modern medical treatment, diagnostics. A lot of older players would have had longer careers if they had the advantages and surgeries of modern players.

That and a lot of players would have been suspended on a game by game basis. Mike Bossy used to get back alley mugged and cross checked in the back and neck on an every game basis, but the tough mofo who declared he refused to fight just took it, got up and kept scoring. Until he couldn't anymore.

I threw my back out setting the smart stage over the icedeck years ago. It has never been the same since. Now when I feel my left leg going numb when I am lifting anything, I know it is a warning sign and ease up(I threw it out once since ignoring that warning sign). But its still debilitating and excruciating. I don't even want to know the level of pain guys like Lemieux and Bossy, who got smashed in the back regularly, faced.

Its kind of bizarro land for someone my age who used to see it happen every game followed by lots of brawls to see slight infractions today get suspensions. But I am glad the NHL cracked down so hard
 

seventieslord

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If we go the adjusted stats route, people need to remember this tidbit. Are you comfortable saying Joe Thornton is potentially the 2nd or 3rd highest points man in NHL history? And definitely, not potentially, the 2nd highest assist man in NHL history?

I think you just illustrated the problem with using compiled career totals more than the problem with adjusted stats.
 

CTHabsfan

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Because numbers of that magnitude are basically impossible in the modern game and the players who attained them wouldn't sniff them if they played now. There is less time to score as the game is faster and players are bigger, defensemen are better, goalies are infinitely better as well.
When Wayne Gretzky scored 92 goals in 1981-82, the closest competitor was Mike Bossy, who scored 64. Bossy would have needed to score 43.75% more goals to have tied Gretzky.

Alex Ovechkin's biggest win of the scoring race was 2007-08, when his 65 goals bested Ilya Kovalchuk's 52. Kovalchuk would only have required a 25% increase to have tied OV.
 

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