Are things as bad as we're saying?

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meefer

Registered User
Jun 9, 2015
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Of the 4 teams that have played 13 games this year, only Washington can be said to be having a solid start to the season with a .731 points %. Arguably, they've had the easiest schedule with games against: St. Louis, NYI, Carolina, Dallas, Nashville, Dallas, Colorado, Toronto, NYR, Chicago, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver with two back to backs, they being Carolina (at home) and Vancouver (away). Congrats to them for their strong start.

Toronto and Calgary have both managed a .538 rate, while Dallas is pulling up the rear with a .346 %.

Curiously, the teams who have played 12 games this season are not fairing exceptionally well either, averaging .583 %. With Buffalo leading the way at an avg. of .792 % and Edmonton following with .708 % mark, can we expect either to remain at this clip throughout? I think not.

My point being: playing a lot of games at the beginning of the season is no easy task and that a hot or cold start can be deceiving. Some teams will regress and others will surge. The sample size is too small for us to accurately judge a team's merits.

In Toronto's case, we're a thrown stick away from being tied with our record at this point last year. This happening with 3 regulars injured, our goalies yet to provide us with their best, a roster that on some nights has seen close to a 40% turnover from last April, 3 brand new defense pairings and (to keep the majority happy ;)) a coach who many believe is unsuitable to the job. Other 'excuses' could be offered: back to backs, slow starts, lack of physical players etc. However, perhaps we may wish to reconsider, just for a moment, that this team is a tire sale. We have won more than we've lost, we should be at least one win better (Kappy, that's on you), we still see a team that is gifted with offense, we've not had a chance to work with what most would consider to be our full line-up and our collective 'effort'/givea*hit' has been weak. Realistically, can we expect more?

Imho, the answer is yes. The returns of Dermott, Hyman and Tavares will have positive effects, even while constraining our roster size due to cap realities. I expect our goaltending to improve. Matthews and Marner, especially, will return to being more dedicated hockey players. Our D pairings will improve with Dermott's return and increased practice time and our offense will certainly go up with the returns of Zach and Johnny T.

I certainly understand the angst many feel when reviewing the Leafs body of work this year, it's been lacking. Especially the efforts displayed. It's not been good enough. However, this team has undergone a large make-over and hasn't had the benefit of a full roster since day one, while being tied for playing the most games to date in the league. I think they need the benefit of seeing them perform with all hands on deck while having more than 13 games into a season before the long knives come out. Yes, there are areas of concern and areas where all need to be held more accountable. But, let's step back from the edge of our psychological collapse, at least until we've given the team a chance to show us over a 25-30 game period that all the fear and loathing was deserved.
 

FlareKnight

Registered User
Jun 26, 2006
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Alberta
I don't know how bad things are relative to a general opinion, but they are definitely not good. No matter the excuses, this has been a bad start to the year. And considering how the Leafs should be able to start seasons pretty well when team's aren't play defense...that's worrisome. How is this team going to make up the points they've lost in the second half of the year when things are going to be much tighter?

The team should get better with bodies coming back. That's presuming of course that Hyman and Dermott are effective coming off significant injuries and completely missing out on any chance to train this summer or training camp itself. Tavares should be Tavares since he's not missing that much time. So we at least have that to count on.

Fingers are crossed. The team could get hot especially with guys coming back. Or things could continue in a mediocre direction since any number of random things could happen. All we can say right now is that things aren't good. The team hasn't been good enough.

What I completely disagree on is the arbitration "wait until here to be concerned" date. Wait for that day to happen and then suddenly it will be "wait until the half way point." We are going to react to the current state of this team as it stands. Because that's exactly what we're going to do in another 10-15 games and at any given point of the season when looking at the team. Being concerned about the current state of the team isn't being on the verge of psychological collapse. It is looking at what we've got here and not liking it.
 

DarkKnight

Professional Amateur
Jan 17, 2017
32,823
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We just have to get through Tuesday’s game, then we’re off until Saturday, a nice reset moment. Things can change quickly, while we’re rightfully down on certain things, it’s a fluid situation sport and we still have great talent. Just sack up.
 

Teeder Keon

Defeat does not rest lightly on their shoulders
Mar 11, 2019
17,312
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Deep in the Purple jungles of BC
Look back at our record from the the 1/2 way mark of last year into the playoffs and up until after Saturday’s game in Montreal .
Also even look at most of the wins we had before that mark , when Mr Andersen stole wins for us that we had no business in winning them ..
Also look at the decision making behind the bench in the last couple , 3 years and especially in the playoffs .
Also look at our division other than Tampa and Boston until this year and see how we got a lot of our points .
Throw away the first year with Babcock as it was meaningless , what are we left with ???
Think and analyze and use the eye test and your knowledge of hockey ..
Throw in that we have drafted in my opinion terrifically
Toss in that we have all the money in the world at our disposal involved in our organization, and development programs , and we use it well ... by the way !
Take a pause , reflect on all our deficiencies that our coach has been working on since he’s been here , have any been rectified ? No , not one bit , in fact the problems are on going and you would have a case in saying that they are worse year to year ..
Now put all those things together and what do you have ?
Well,
We have what you see ..
Exactly !
Does that answer your question ?
You tell me ...
 
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MJ65

Registered User
Jul 12, 2009
16,380
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Toronto
I am not sure but I am thoroughly disappointed with the way this team is playing. I don't feel like participating in any threads, as I have nothing good to say about this team
 
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biotk

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Jan 3, 2017
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List of Leafs' players who have more ES points than Connor Brown (despite the Leafs' having played 2 more games than Ottawa has):
 

Recipe Unlimited

Registered User
Sep 1, 2019
1,047
1,524
Wait, are you implying HF Leafs might be over reacting to something?!?!

I wish gamblers had similar overreactions to the leafs. Leafs are still one of the favorites to win the cup according to betting patterns
 

Nineteen67

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Dec 12, 2017
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You are what your record says you are.

The issues that plagued the team last year are still here this year. Until that changes you can’t expect much more than what you’ve seen.

When a team only wins 30% of their games versus the top 10 defensive teams in the league it’s a real cause for concern.
 

wingman75

Registered User
Dec 3, 2008
6,171
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The QC
Hard to say. If you look at just this season, probably not. Missing two key players in Hyman and Dermott plus Tavares being injured. Add to that the, what is it, 8 new players and it will take some time.

Looking more broadly, this team is playing now, exactly as they have since about Jan 2019. So that means we have changed a lot of the roster and are essentially the same team while employing the same game plan.

If after 20 games, we are still hovering near .500 I'll be more concerned than I am right now; which is 6/10.
 

Gabriel426

Registered User
Jun 30, 2015
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What concerns me are not the W and L but the way the team is playing.
Marner despite his points is not the same player as the past three years. Even when he was struggling during his second year, he was skating and engaging but he is not doing that anymore. It is like he is waiting for the PP, get his points and call it a day.
Matthews seems to switch on here and there, the 200ft game with doing all the little things like he did the first two years are few and far between.
Willie for some odd reason can’t get any shots on Goal, he is active but he needs end results to show he is not a waste cap space.
Barrie is completely lost out there unless he has the puck, but he is looking to pass instead of attacking the zone.
Reilly is getting better but you can see he needs a more physical and vocal partner than Ceci.
Most of all, the team lacks playing as a team and sticking up for each other.
Quite frankly, if this team is waiting for JT, Hyman and Dermott to save the season, that’s a problem in itself. No doubt JT is a big loss but with Matthews, Marner, Willie, Kerfoot, Kap and AJ, that’s still a very talented Top 6.
Hyman is a top 9 winger and Dermott is bottom pairing Dman, I really doubt those two playing will improve our D to the point that Leafs is tougher to play against.
 

Zybalto

Registered User
Dec 28, 2012
9,639
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Hard to say. If you look at just this season, probably not. Missing two key players in Hyman and Dermott plus Tavares being injured. Add to that the, what is it, 8 new players and it will take some time.

Looking more broadly, this team is playing now, exactly as they have since about Jan 2019. So that means we have changed a lot of the roster and are essentially the same team while employing the same game plan.

If after 20 games, we are still hovering near .500 I'll be more concerned than I am right now; which is 6/10.

From Jan. 1st to now, the Leafs team save% ranks 21st (23rd 5v5).

The previous year and a half, it ranked 3rd overall (4th 5v5).
 

Hclass47

Registered User
Apr 28, 2018
374
204
Key members missing
Multiple new faces
Multiple back to back games
Below avg tendies

= weak start

the clock is ticking to turn things around
 

Throw More Waffles

Unprecedented Dramatic Overpayments
Oct 9, 2015
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Not a Leafs fan. But probably following hockey longer than a lot of you have been alive.

My totally unsolicited advice: calm the hell down. It's October. You have serious talent, give it some time.
This team is under .500 in the entire calandar year of 2019. It IS a problem.

And before the whole "new faces" this year argument, other than Barrie, it's only been depth players that were replaced. Not core.

This CORE has been sub .500 for the calendar year.
 

Legion34

Registered User
Jan 24, 2006
18,869
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You are what your record says you are.

The issues that plagued the team last year are still here this year. Until that changes you can’t expect much more than what you’ve seen.

When a team only wins 30% of their games versus the top 10 defensive teams in the league it’s a real cause for concern.

and what did St. Louis record make them.
Tampa. Dallas. San Jose?
 

Nineteen67

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and what did St. Louis record make them.
Tampa. Dallas. San Jose?

Not sure if the relevancy....but...

St Louis’ record made them Stanley Cup Champions. Tampa won the Presidents trophy, the other 2 won some playoff rounds.
 

Ms Maggie

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Apr 11, 2017
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This team is under .500 in the entire calandar year of 2019. It IS a problem.

And before the whole "new faces" this year argument, other than Barrie, it's only been depth players that were replaced. Not core.

This CORE has been sub .500 for the calendar year.
As I hope I said, no way a Toronto expert! Pens fan. But have a soft spot for the Leafs as I'm a huge fan of the city of Toronto. Don't really follow teams outside the Met division.

Don't take offense, but it's odd to me that the Leafs have languished for so long. Guess I'm just hoping the worm has turned for you guys.
 

Ms Maggie

Registered User
Apr 11, 2017
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I love how often this thing that has happened just 1% of the time keeps getting trotted out as if it's likely to ever happen again.

It's like spending a paycheque on lottery tickets because your neighbour won last week.
Pretty sure the Pens at the end of 2015 were closer to the bottom of the Metro division than the top? Then went on to win the 2016 Cup. And again. it's October.
 

Nineteen67

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I love how often this thing that has happened just 1% of the time keeps getting trotted out as if it's likely to ever happen again.

It's like spending a paycheque on lottery tickets because your neighbour won last week.

not too mention they made a coaching change and found a missing element.
 

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