Only because of the divisional format, in a 1-8 seeding system they would very likely have been out in round 1 last year. Jack Campbell is an average starting goalie, I don't think he's that game breaker that would make them a top 5 contender. Right now I have Colorado, Carolina, Toronto, NY Rangers, Tampa as the top 5, Oilers somewhere in the 6-10 range. I just don't believe in their blue line, Nurse is really not a #1 D even though he's being paid like one. It's all offence, no defence, no depth. They will easily make the playoffs, at least make the 2nd round, I don't trust them beyond that. Far too many question marks on D.
If they can add a stud blue liner they would immediately be a top 5 contender imo, McDavid/Drai are more than good enough to carry the forward group, just gott solidify the D core.