Another Late Season Surge

[Hale The Villain]

In the grand scheme of things, I really don't see it as a big deal. Of course the scouts care, they Except historically the difference isn't a big deal, scouts care right now, sure. But in 5 years when those guys are playing, will it?
Turcotte at 5 or Cozens at 7
Hayton or Hughes a
Petterson or Andersson
Hanifan or Provorov
Dal Colle or Fleury
Lindholm or Nurse
Reilly or Dumba
Strome or Scheifele
Niedereitter or Skinner
Schenn or Kadri

There's some clear wins on both sides, some guys id prefere, and some toss ups. The scouts can worry about it, that's their job, but I don't see this as particularly franchise altering

I look at it a different way.

Forget the history of players selected at 5th vs. 7th, instead consider what the team picking 7th overall would have been willing to pay to move up to 5th on draft day to secure their player.

There are very few teams willing to move down in the top 10 and they normally demand a price that teams are not willing to pay.

What would a team be willing to pay to move up a couple spots in the top 10? At least a 2nd round pick, if not more.

I remember in 2011 we were rumoured to have offered the 21st overall pick to move up from 6th overall to 3rd overall to draft Huberdeau/Landeskog, but the Panthers turned us down.

Therefore jumping up a couple spots late in the season does come at a cost in the value of our draft pick. An ill-timed and unnecessary win or two late in the year can mean losing out on a lot of value.

 

[Loach]

So how 'bout them Jays?

 

[Micklebot]

I look at it a different way.

Forget the history of players selected at 5th vs. 7th, instead consider what the team picking 7th overall would have been willing to pay to move up to 5th on draft day to secure their player.

There are very few teams willing to move down in the top 10 and they normally demand a price that teams are not willing to pay.

What would a team be willing to pay to move up a couple spots in the top 10? At least a 2nd round pick, if not more.

I remember in 2011 we were rumoured to have offered the 21st overall pick to move up from 6th overall to 3rd overall to draft Huberdeau/Landeskog, but the Panthers turned us down.

Therefore jumping up a couple spots late in the season does come at a cost in the value of our draft pick. An ill-timed and unnecessary win or two late in the year can mean losing out on a lot of value.

You could think of it that way, but with teams not knowing what other teams lists are, it's uncommon for a team to actually take advantage of that perceived cost/value. More likely, they just take who they like at that spot for fear of losing their guy.

 

[Tuna99]

So how 'bout them Jays?

Is there a more boring major professional team in Canada than the jays?

 

[Loach]

Is there a more boring major professional team in Canada than the jays?

The similarities between the jays and sens are eerie.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Except historically the difference isn't a big deal, scouts care right now, sure. But in 5 years when those guys are playing, will it?

Turcotte at 5 or Cozens at 7
Hayton or Hughes a
Petterson or Andersson
Hanifan or Provorov
Dal Colle or Fleury
Lindholm or Nurse
Reilly or Dumba
Strome or Scheifele
Niedereitter or Skinner
Schenn or Kadri

There's some clear wins on both sides, some guys id prefere, and some toss ups. The scouts can worry about it, that's their job, but I don't see this as particularly franchise altering

This got me thinking. I'm 100% sure that @BondraTime is right about the scouts being concerned about this. Why wouldn't they be? They want to succeed in their job and getting a higher pick gives them at least the sense of security that they'll get "their guy". Everybody wants any advantage they can get.

But I broke down the numbers and, before this year, players drafted 5th overall scored a total of 17521 points in the NHL. This was led by Jagr's 1900+.

Players drafted 7th overall have scored 18305 points in the NHL. A slight lead by the later pick but there were some goalies picked in the 5 slot who were quite impactful (most notably Barasshole and Price).

6th overall scored more points than either slot with 18789. Let's land there.

Summarized: Obviously scouts and GMs like the higher pick and how much it matters depends on the draft year and whether it is deep or has a clear big 5 or whatever. But it seems like the quality of player you're statistically likely to get at picks 5-7 is pretty random.

I think this year there will be a similar quality of prospect available at both the 5 and 7 spots. As usual we'll have to wait about 4-5 years to know for sure.

 

[Hale The Villain]

This got me thinking. I'm 100% sure that @BondraTime is right about the scouts being concerned about this. Why wouldn't they be? They want to succeed in their job and getting a higher pick gives them at least the sense of security that they'll get "their guy". Everybody wants any advantage they can get.

But I broke down the numbers and, before this year, players drafted 5th overall scored a total of 17521 points in the NHL. This was led by Jagr's 1900+.

Players drafted 7th overall have scored 18305 points in the NHL. A slight lead by the later pick but there were some goalies picked in the 5 slot who were quite impactful (most notably Barasshole and Price).

6th overall scored more points than either slot with 18789. Let's land there.

Summarized: Obviously scouts and GMs like the higher pick and how much it matters depends on the draft year and whether it is deep or has a clear big 5 or whatever. But it seems like the quality of player you're statistically likely to get at picks 5-7 is pretty random.

I think this year there will be a similar quality of prospect available at both the 5 and 7 spots. As usual we'll have to wait about 4-5 years to know for sure.

Looking at point totals at a particular pick number is a terrible way of determining the value of the 5th overall pick vs. the 7th overall pick today.

Could a player picked 7th overall in 2024 perform better than the player picked 5th overall? Absolutely, but that doesn't mean the team picking 7th wouldn't be willing to pay something extra to jump up two spots.

A good rule of thumb is for every couple spots we move up in the standings (while still pickin within the top 10) the value of our draft pick drops by at least a 2nd round pick.

Everyone who has a long-term perspective should be cheering for some hard fought close losses to finish the year.

 

[SquidNasty]

Flames - 75 - 5GR
Yotes - 73 - 3GR
Sens - 72 - 4GR
Habs - 72 - 4GR

The battle for 5th will be tight, that Saturday game against the Habs will be crucial for draft position. Will be cheering for Montreal no matter how much it kills me inside.

Coyotes have been playing decent hockey lately, wouldn’t be surprised if they win a couple to close out the year.

Knowing the Sens though, they’ll go 3-0-1 and somehow pass Calgary.

 

[thinkwild]

This got me thinking. I'm 100% sure that @BondraTime is right about the scouts being concerned about this. Why wouldn't they be? They want to succeed in their job and getting a higher pick gives them at least the sense of security that they'll get "their guy". Everybody wants any advantage they can get.

But I broke down the numbers and, before this year, players drafted 5th overall scored a total of 17521 points in the NHL. This was led by Jagr's 1900+.

Players drafted 7th overall have scored 18305 points in the NHL. A slight lead by the later pick but there were some goalies picked in the 5 slot who were quite impactful (most notably Barasshole and Price).

6th overall scored more points than either slot with 18789. Let's land there.

Summarized: Obviously scouts and GMs like the higher pick and how much it matters depends on the draft year and whether it is deep or has a clear big 5 or whatever. But it seems like the quality of player you're statistically likely to get at picks 5-7 is pretty random.

I think this year there will be a similar quality of prospect available at both the 5 and 7 spots. As usual we'll have to wait about 4-5 years to know for sure.

Everybody that confuses correlation with causation dies. But sure i agree. Scouts and fans obviously want every advantage possible. But doesnt seem that concerning in our range this year

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Looking at point totals at a particular pick number is a terrible way of determining the value of the 5th overall pick vs. the 7th overall pick today.

Could a player picked 7th overall in 2024 perform better than the player picked 5th overall? Absolutely, but that doesn't mean the team picking 7th wouldn't be willing to pay something extra to jump up two spots.

A good rule of thumb is for every couple spots we move up in the standings (while still pickin within the top 10) the value of our draft pick drops by at least a 2nd round pick.

Everyone who has a long-term perspective should be cheering for some hard fought close losses to finish the year.

It's not about whether we could pick a better player at 7th than say the Habs do at 5. It's that the chances that we get a quality player are just about the same.

Having the 5 pick is a more valuable trade chip so there's value there, but if we stick with the pick at 5 or 7 is not something I'd worry about more than in passing.

 

[Senscore]

It's a real quandary.

Given how chaotic the sub-Celebrini field is turning out, even a single spot advantage will be huge in giving our scouts the ability to get the guy they want. Do we go for the tank, or finish off the Habs sweep for the second year in a row and really f*** with their wee baby brains?

If you read how they talk about our team they are just on the edge of losing it entirely, and getting swept again might just do it.


Truly a tough call.

 

[SquidNasty]

It's a real quandary.

Given how chaotic the sub-Celebrini field is turning out, even a single spot advantage will be huge in giving our scouts the ability to get the guy they want. Do we go for the tank, or finish off the Habs sweep for the second year in a row and really f*** with their wee baby brains?

If you read how they talk about our team they are just on the edge of losing it entirely, and getting swept again might just do it.


Truly a tough call.

I don’t think they’d care at all if I’m being honest. Slaf and a bunch of their young pieces have been playing great this year, morale in the fanbase is pretty high from what I’ve seen. They’d just be happy to pass us in lottery odds.

If anything this post gives the impression our wee baby brains are losing it entirely after 7 years straight of missing.

 

[Big Muddy]

We are one point ahead of Montreal and Arizona with the same amount of games played.

It seems absurd not to want to have both teams rise above us now so that we give our scouts the chance to pick higher and the ability to pick their favourite prospect.

Everything about the season at this point seems meaningless except for the draft now.

Just think how much better off this team would be in the future if we had those prospects from the last three drafts (I’ve included another selection versus Boucher) plus this years (5th overall) draft pick in our system. Its a shame, and that is understating the point. We accomplished nothing by jumping the gun. What we needed besides patience was another GM and a coach.

 

[SquidNasty]

Yotes and Flames both win, a reg loss against the habs and we’re in sole possession with 2 game remaining.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

It's a real quandary.

Given how chaotic the sub-Celebrini field is turning out, even a single spot advantage will be huge in giving our scouts the ability to get the guy they want. Do we go for the tank, or finish off the Habs sweep for the second year in a row and really f*** with their wee baby brains?

If you read how they talk about our team they are just on the edge of losing it entirely, and getting swept again might just do it.


Truly a tough call.

I don't want the guys to play to lose.....but I would be a-ok with Staios and Martin sitting any guys who have some bumps and bruises.

 

[lang006]

I don't want the guys to play to lose.....but I would be a-ok with Staios and Martin sitting any guys who have some bumps and bruises.

Haha. True. Never like losing to the Habs however, if there’s a ‘must lose’ game for both this is it. So knowing the Sens like I do my safe money bet is on a Sens win tonight.

This last week of schedule became some interesting watching as well. We finish with back to back away games in NYR and Bos. That’s potentially zero points for us at the best of times and those two are still both playing for their Divisions so got to assume they aren’t necessarily resting players. Finally check out who plays the Wings in a home and home

 

[JD1]

Lots of discussion about the value of a couple of spots in the draft. @Hale The Villain is in the ball park with his rule of thumb and @BondraTime is right saying scouts want to pick their guy.

But all of that only matters if their guy is the right guy. Tyler "you don't know what I know" Boucher is a prime example. At this point, seems like the scouts were wrong.

As far as scouts being right or wrong goes, outside of the blatantly obvious I think history quite clearly shows that they are kind of able to bundle players in to groupings but aren't able to identify the pick of the litter so to speak. Sometimes they are right within a bundle of players and sometimes they are wrong. Just looking at our team again, back to back years you've got Sanderson and Boucher. Very right and very wrong. Same scout crew.

 

[Tuna99]

Lots of discussion about the value of a couple of spots in the draft. @Hale The Villain is in the ball park with his rule of thumb and @BondraTime is right saying scouts want to pick their guy.

But all of that only matters if their guy is the right guy. Tyler "you don't know what I know" Boucher is a prime example. At this point, seems like the scouts were wrong.

As far as scouts being right or wrong goes, outside of the blatantly obvious I think history quite clearly shows that they are kind of able to bundle players in to groupings but aren't able to identify the pick of the litter so to speak. Sometimes they are right within a bundle of players and sometimes they are wrong. Just looking at our team again, back to back years you've got Sanderson and Boucher. Very right and very wrong. Same scout crew.

Really interesting analysis of the 2015 draft - Babcock really wanted Hanafin but the Leafs just hired Dale Hunter who had Marner in London and told Lou to not pass on him so they went with Marner despite lots of scouts and the HC wanting Hanafin

Same draft the Oilers hired Griffin Reinhardt junior coach who raved about him. Oilers end up trading their 1st ++ for Reinhardt instead of drafting a falling Barzel who their scouts really wanted for McDavid to play with - Reinhardt busted and the Oil trade Hall away to get the Damn they missed on in the draft.

Babcock gets fired by Marner - just really amazing how 2 new voices turned the fortune of their franchise around with their opinions even if they went agains the majority of the analysis and opinions wothon the team. One got it right, one got it wrong

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

I’m not a full out “team tank” member but tonight would be a very good game to lose

 

[Tuna99]

I’m not a full out “team tank” member but tonight would be a very good game to lose

My guess is Hamonic plays his final NHL game tonight in front of his family

 

[Micklebot]

My guess is Hamonic plays his final NHL game tonight in front of his family

He hasn't been skating due to injuries unless something changed

 

[OD99]

I’m not a full out “team tank” member but tonight would be a very good game to lose

I am going to the game and I just can't allow myself to want a loss while I am in the building with a whack of Habs fans.

 

[Tuna99]

He hasn't been skating due to injuries unless something changed

Heard he was healthy now just a healthy scratch

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

I am going to the game and I just can't allow myself to want a loss while I am in the building with a whack of Habs fans.

So you win either way!

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Tank talk is just so far out of our control. It’s a convo I don’t really understand having.

I mean it’s all out of our control. But like being mad they lose. What are they supposed to do. We finish where they finish